tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-85478308336553857812024-03-19T03:27:55.345+00:00Wayward LadWelcome to the "World of Horseracing".
This blog has been providing information, comment, and selections for horseracing in the UK and Ireland since March 2010.Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.comBlogger1210125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-5333579351915049062024-03-15T08:05:00.001+00:002024-03-15T08:05:27.910+00:00Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Day 4 (15th March)<div style="text-align: left;">What a cracking day it was yesterday. </div><div style="text-align: left;">We started off with a winner in the opening race, when <b>Grey Dawning</b> stayed on best of all to win at odds of 5/2. Then we had a great ew wager on <b>Emitom</b> in the Pertemps Final at 28/1; the day was to get even better. <b>Protektorat</b>, the selection in the Ryanair Chase, romped home at decent odds of 9/1 (recommended taking on the blog). Finally, we very nearly pulled-off a tremendous wager in the Stayers' Hurdle when <b>Flooring Porter</b> looked to be going on to win, only to be caught and passed on the run-in.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Let's look at Gold Cup day:</div><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="background-color: #01ffff;">1:30pm Triumph Hurdle 4yo's only (2m1f)</b></div><div style="text-align: left;">This race isn't my usual hunting ground. </div><div style="text-align: left;">This looks a tricky race for the punter. The fav is <b>Majborough</b> based on his promising debut when staying-on to be 3rd, and he's closely matched with <b>Storm Heart</b> who was 2nd in that race. Personally, I don't think the winner of this is coming out of that race, which also cancels-out <b>Kargesse</b> who won, and <b>Bunting</b> who was 4th; these horses are too closely matched. I've had <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Nurburgring</b> in my notebook since Xmas when he ran a cracker, giving weight away, to be 3rd to Kala Conti. Nurburgring is the horse with the most potential at today's trip and on the soft ground. I feel Majborough needs 2m4f already, and the others just aren't quick enough. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="background-color: #fcff01;">William Hill offer 11/2 on Nurburgring, and there's plenty of 5/1 available; I'm having £5 win.</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="background-color: #01ffff;">2:10pm County Hurdle (2m1f)</b></div><div style="text-align: left;">This is a difficult race. I was not happy <b>Pied Piper</b> (2nd in this race last year) didn't run in the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday, but he does run in this. It's a big ask to win this with 12st. I feel trainer Gordon Elliott is using Pied Piper to allow a lesser-light a decent weight to run off. He has the race-fav <b>King Of Kingsfield</b> who has been running well in races similar to this and looks primed for a big run, but he's only 5/1. Dan Skelton, who won this last year with <b>Faivoir</b>, has had 4 winners this week, and is the handicap king at the Festival. Faivoir could emulate Langer Dan and become a double winner handicap winner, and the horses is in top form just failing to win the Imperial Cup at Sandown on Saturday. Skelton also has <b>L'Eau Du Sud</b> who looks to have been aimed at this race. However, I'm going left-field and <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Encanto Bruno trained by Gavin Cromwell also looks to have been aimed at this race since winning here over 2m4f last October.</b> Kept quiet since, we know Cromwell can produce one on the day, and so long as he handles the ground, he won't be far away: odds of 33/1 are generally available and <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">I'm having £2.50 eachway (6-places, 5th odds a place)</b>.</div><div style="text-align: left;">I would not put you off have a few win wagers on those heading the betting.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="background-color: #01ffff;">2:50pm Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle (3-mile)</b></div><div style="text-align: left;">This looks like being another winner for Willie Mullins via the fav <b>Readin Tommy Wrong</b>, who looks a strong contender. Personally, I don't think the 2nd-fav <b>Gidleigh Park</b> is the strongest of the British entries, I think it's Captain Teague, who has always been top-drawer, and looks sure to stay the trip well. <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">There's 8/1 available (4-places, 5th odds a place) and I'm having £5 eachway;</b><span style="background-color: white;"> and I may well have Readin Tommy Wrong and Captain Teague in a Forecast.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="background-color: #01ffff;">3:30pm Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (3m 2f)</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white;">Now that Shishkin is a non-runner, I feel that </span><b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Galopin Des Champs</b><span style="background-color: white;"> is a near certainty to win this. Shiskin would have given the fav a race, of that there's no doubt following the win yesterday in the Ryanair Chase by Protektorat (beaten easily by Shishkin at Newbury LTO). The 2nd horse home is likely to be <b>Fastorslow</b>, as he's been consistently good over the past 12 months. There are some "exotic" markets on this race, and several bookies have odds to finish in the 1st-3 - so not an eachway wager (win & place), but place-only. To come 3rd maybe <b>Bravemansgame</b>, who was a good 2nd last year, and has been running a bit below that level since then but he's the only horse other that the fav and 2nd-fav who is (in my opinion) capable of running a high 160+ rating. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="background-color: #fcff01;">William Hill offer 3/1 on Bravemansgame to be in the 1st-3, and I'm having £10 on</b><span style="background-color: white;">.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white;">That's it for me. I will probably watch the Hunter Chase and have a small wager on something (probably Premier Magic); and then I will head for the exit and the drive home. It's been a great week.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-34975504534539308762024-03-14T08:06:00.000+00:002024-03-14T08:06:39.862+00:00Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Day 3 (14th March)<div style="text-align: left;">It's the 3rd day of the Festival, and it's fairly obvious now that the quality of horse trained in the UK - Constitution Hill excluded - is at the poorest level in my lifetime. Maybe I'm being over-dramatic, but I don't know where it goes from here, but if horseracing isn't competitive - Willie Mullins saddled the 1st-5 in the Grade 1 Gallagher Novices Hurdle, from 7 starters - then the majority of supporters will lose interest. </div><div style="text-align: left;">I had no luck on the day, with both selections not finishing in the places. And the remainder of the card didn't provide betting opportunities except for those fortunate with a lucky pin.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Let's try our hand on Day-3 (Thursday)</div><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="background-color: #01ffff;">1:30pm Turners Novices' Chase (2m4f)</b></div><div style="text-align: left;">We have 11 runners going to post, which should provide some interest. The fav is <b>Facile Vega</b>, and I expect Mullins will be hoping the extra distance (all chase races have been over 2m1f) will bring about some improvement. Given how testing the ground is, <b>Grey Dawning</b> having won over 3-mile LTO should have sufficient stamina to be involved at the finish. When they met as hurdlers last season, Grey Dawning got the better of <b>Ginny's Destiny</b>, and if the ground wasn't as soft as it is, I might fancy Ginny's Destiny - but on this ground a horse needs stamina. If <b>Iroko</b> - off the track since early November - wins it will be a helluva training performance, but I can't see that happening. Nothing else looks good enough. <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">For me it's Grey Dawning, but the odds are not attractive enough to warrant advising a wager.</b><span style="background-color: white;"> However, do not ignore the chance of <b>Letsbeclearaboutit</b>, sent by Gavin Cromwell, ignore LTO as he didn't stay 3-mile on heavy ground but this trip will suit him well - and he wasn't far behind Found A Fifty (2nd in the Arkle this week) on 03Dec - he's worth a small ew at 33/1. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div><b style="background-color: #01ffff;">2:10pm Pertemps Hurdle Final H'cap (3 mile)</b></div><div>One of my favourite races of the season. This is not an easy race to fathom, but you do need a horse that is a proven stayer at the trip, and there are not many of those. And unless you find a bold front-runner (like Buena Vista) and the benefit of good ground, it's best to have a hold-up horse. </div><div>I've narrowed it down to a couple, <b>Emitom </b>who runs off OR137 and won a decent handicap at Newbury last month, and <b>Gabby's Cross</b> who has been running well recently. What I like about Emitom is he was 4th in the Stayers' Hurdle in 2020 when rated OR153, and Alan King has revitalised the horse since he started training him. Gabby's Cross is an OR140 chaser running off OR127. </div><div>Both are worth an eachway wager:</div><div><b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Gabbys Cross: 81 available generally - 6-places, 5th odds</b></div><div><b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Emitom: 28/1 with Paddy Power - 6-places, 5th odds</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b style="background-color: #01ffff;">2:50pm Ryanair Chase (2m5f)</b></div><div>This race is looking one of the most open Grade 1's of the entire Festival. On the one hand, Envoi Allen won a stronger race last year, but hasn't done much in the past 12 months: should he be the fav? Hitman was 3rd last year and hasn't improved in the last 12 months. Banbridge, despite winning well LTO, does not have suitable ground, and may well be withdrawn. Stage Star won the Turners last year, but I'm not sure he's up to winning this race as you have to take his well-being (he pulled-up LTO when the fav) for granted. Capodanno and Conflated don't look good enough to win over this trip. The horse that jumps out for me is <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Protektorat</b>: he has been consistently good this season, running some of his best races in defeat as he's been giving away a lot of weight at times. He's a bold front-runner and this could be his day in the sun - <b>there's plenty of 9/1 and 4-places at 5th odds a place</b>.</div><div><br /></div><div><span style="background-color: #01ffff;"><b>3:30pm Stayers' Hurdle (3 miles)</b></span></div><div>Another race worth having a wager in. Teahupoo had his ground last season and couldn't win. Is he a better, stronger horse this season? Noble Yeats does not lack stamina, but let's be honest, he was getting 6lb off Paisley Park and only just beat him. If I thought Sir Gerhard would stay this 3-mile trip on soft ground, he would be the selection, but he's never shown the required stamina before. I haven't thought Crambo as good enough to win this since his win at Ascot LTO, and nothing has changed that opinion. If Crambo isn't good enough, neither is Paisley Park; and lightning does not strike twice, so I'm putting a line through Sire Du Berlais as a 12yo. There's one horse who is a proven stayer, proven on the ground, and ran well in this last season of a short preparation - <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Flooring Porter. He's had no problems this season with fitness, and he is the dark horse in this race, odds of 14/1 Paddypower look generous</b>. I'm on at 25/1 as I never thought he'd make the grade as a chaser, and I've gone in again at </div><div><br /></div><div>I'm going to overlook the Plate at 4:10pm and the Mares' Hurdle at 4:50pm (lack of time), and go to the final race of the day:</div><div><b style="background-color: #01ffff;">5:30pm Kim Muir h'cap chase (3m2f)</b></div><div>Amateur riders are usually best avoided, but you can't do that in this race. The best amateurs ride the best horses, so you have to respect Derek O'Connor on <b>Inothewayyurthinkin</b> the 5/2 fav. The 8yo <b>Amirite</b> has McParlan in the saddle, and this decent stayer could go well. However, the one I like the look of is <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Bowtogreatness</b>, ridden by Jack Andrews who knows his way around Cheltenham. Still a maiden chaser, he's mainly race over 2m4f but he's twice run at 3-mile coming 2nd at Aintree on 15Apr and 3rd LTO at Kempton which was probably his best effort to date - so he's in form. He looks well handicapped on OR133. </div><div><b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Bowtogreatness - £2.50 ew @ 16/1 Bet365 , 6-places 5th odds</b>.</div><div><br /></div><div>Good luck all.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div></div>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-8906845524161641772024-03-13T09:41:00.003+00:002024-03-13T09:41:50.291+00:00Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Day 2 (Wed 13th March)<div style="text-align: left;">Yesterday wasn't the best of days - we came close, but (in horseracing) 2nd isn't good enough.</div><div style="text-align: left;">We started the day fairly well, it was right to oppose the fav <b>Tullyhill</b> in the Supreme Hurdle, but we went for the wrong opposition. I think the testing ground did for <b>Firefox</b>, as he was cruising before 2-out but found nothing from there, staying-on to be 3rd (£5 ew advised @ 13/2, so nothing lost). The soft/heavy ground requires stamina, and we should see a different Firefox on "good" ground. Onto the "Arkle" and, as it happened, <b>Gaelic Warrior</b> is the best two-mile chaser we've seen in a few years, he ripped the "Arkle" field apart; my selection <b>Found A Fifty</b> was a gallant 2nd (£5 ew advised @ 15/2, again no money lost). After 2 races we had 2 selections placed at eachway, and we were still in the game. </div><div style="text-align: left;">I had high hopes for the Ultima Handicap Chase, but my main selection <b>Stumptown</b> didn't appreciate the ground, and made errors. However, I did suggest placing eachway wagers on <b>Twig</b> and <b>Monbeg Genius</b>; and Twig ran a cracker to be 2nd at 28/1. For a moment as the leaders approached 2-out, I thought he may go on to win, but no. Again, it was stamina that won out on the testing ground. </div><div style="text-align: left;">That was the end of my luck, as I didn't have any meaningful wagers in the next 3 hurdle races, and in the NH Chase that closed the day, my selection <b>Salvatore Ziggy</b> ran a stinker. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">The 2nd day of the Festival starts with:</div><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="background-color: #01ffff;">1:30pm Gallagher Novices' Hurdle (2m5f)</b></div><div style="text-align: left;">After Slade Steel won the Supreme Hurdle yesterday, you cannot look anywhere else but at <b>Ballyburn</b> as he easily beat Slade Steel last month. What will come 2nd? Possibly the 6yo Ile Atlantique.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="background-color: #01ffff;">2:10pm Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (3-mile)</b></div><div style="text-align: left;">Just 6 runners go to post, and yet another odds-on Mullins horse <b>Fact To File</b> is the fav. At the odds, I don't think he's value and I'm going to oppose with <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Stay Away Fay</b> who we know will stay the trip and handle the track and<span style="font-family: inherit;"> ground; and I think this one <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">has the</span><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="background-color: white;"> stronger form going into this race. It's particularly pleasing that trainer Paul Nicholls has not entered the horse in any other race; this has always been the target. I thought this race may cut-up, but not this much, and now I'm wishing I'd had more on </span><b style="background-color: white;">Giovinco</b><span style="background-color: white;"> ew last week at 33/1 (see blog dated 07Mar) as antepost offered 3-places. </span><b style="background-color: #fcff01;">The 7/2 available for Stay Away Fay looks decent value, and I'm taking that: £10 win.</b></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #222222;"><b style="background-color: #fcff01;"><br /></b></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div><b style="background-color: #01ffff;">2:35pm Coral Cup H'cp Hurdle (2m5f)</b></div><div>This will be won by a horse with a lot of stamina, and a touch of class. It's a longshot but I like <b>Benson</b>; a 9yo who will handle the ground, can race up with the pace, or from off the pace, and was 11/1 to win this race last year (pulled-up, never travelling), and is 100/1 with Bet365 (6-places ew, 5th odds), and there's a lot of 66/1 about. Good luck </div><div><br /></div><div><b style="background-color: #01ffff;">3:30pm Champion Chase (2 mile)</b></div><div><div>There's only one winner of this race, and that's <b>El Fabiolo</b>; the only way he won't win is if he doesn't finish. It could be anything that comes in 2nd, apart from Boothill who only races right-handed. </div><div><br /></div><div><div><b style="background-color: #01ffff;">4:10pm Cross Country Chase (3m5f)</b></div><div>It's no secret that I'm no fan of this race; I'm not against the type of race, I just don't think it has a place at the Cheltenham Festival. Since becoming level weights, the winner has comes from the top of the betting, so most judges will say there's no point in considering anything at odds longer that 8/1. However, I think <b>Foxy Jacks</b> who won over C&D last November looks poised to run well. Of the market leaders; <b>Coko Beach</b> has been in top form recently. This is not a betting race for me.</div><div><br /></div><div><div><b style="background-color: #01ffff;">4:50pm Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase H'cp (2-mile)</b></div><div>This is a very competitive race, but the horse that I wanted to run in the race last year IS running in the race this year, and that <b>Saint Roi</b>. He ran 3rd in the Arkle instead, and then ran 2nd at Aintree when just beaten by Banbridge (now the fav for the Ryanair Chase tomorrow). I think he's been laid-out for this race, and odds of 7/1 (generally available) look fair considering that he's a Festival winner (County Hurdle in 2020). </div><div><b style="background-color: #fcff01;">£10 win on Saint Roi @ 7/1</b>. </div><div><br /></div><div><b style="background-color: #01ffff;">5:30 Champion Bumper (2-miles) Flat race</b></div><div>To be honest, I haven't a clue in this race, but if push came to shove I think Jalon D'oudaries looks to have a decent chance and odds of 5/1 look fair.</div></div></div></div></div>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-70326124154291290912024-03-12T07:25:00.000+00:002024-03-12T07:25:06.342+00:00Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Day 1 (Tuesday 12th March)<div style="text-align: left;">Here we go! </div><div style="text-align: left;">The most eagerly anticipated horserace meeting in the entire calendar. We will surely have competitive racing, highs and lows, and (fingers crossed) a few winners along the way. I've looked at a lot of the races already in the past week, so most of the form-study has been done. Let's get down to it and finalise the selections for the day ahead.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="background-color: #01ffff;">1:30pm - Supreme Novices Hurdle</b></div><div style="text-align: left;">Just 12 runners go to post, with Willie Mullins supplying half the field - and possibly his best novice hurdler runs tomorrow. <b>Tullyhill</b> made an immense step forward LTO, and Mullins must consider him good enough to win, but I feel <b>Firefox</b> who has been Gordon Elliott's chosen runner for some time to finish on top. The trends will say a horse that won LTO is the way to go, but I'm expecting the trends to be distorted by the domination of Mullins; and that Tullyhill has had little competition in he races makes his true ability tricky to assess. Also, if Mullins thought Tullyhill was most likely to win, he wouldn't run <b>Mystical Power</b>. </div><div style="text-align: left;">For me, it's <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Firefox to win</b>, and I'm already on at 10/1; but the 13/2 looks attractive (Betfred pay 4-places) as an eachway wager: £5 ew @ 13/2 (4-place, 5th odds)</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="background-color: #01ffff;">2:10pm - Arkle Novices' Chase</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div>Only 10 runners go to post, with Willie Mullins supplying three (3). This all hangs on <b>Gaelic Warrior</b> who could possibly turn-out to be the best two-mile chaser we've seen in a few years, or (like Chancun Pour Soi) he may save his best for Ireland, and flop at Cheltenham. </div><div>I'm on two in the race: <b>Found A Fifty</b> and <b>Il Etait Temps</b>; they fought out the Irish Arkle last month, and they look to have the best recent form going into this race. Mullins also has <b>Hunters Yarn</b>, but that horse wasn't good enough as a hurdler to suggest he has the speed for this race. There are another two that may be involved: <b>Quilixios</b> who won the Triumph Hurdle in 2021; and <b>My Mate Mozzie</b> who I thought would go for a handicap chase as he's clearly better than his OR150 rating. </div><div>I'm already on both <b>Found A Fifty</b> and <b>Il Etait Temps</b> at 6/1, which I took after they ran LTO. Right now, this race looks too competitive, as I didn't expect Mullins to run Gaelic Warrior - so if you haven't already had a wager already, then I can't suggest one that looks "value" other than a £5 eachway wager on <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Found A Fifty at 15/2</b> with Paddy Power (3-places 5th odds a place)</div><div><br /></div></div><div><b style="background-color: #01ffff;">2:50pm - Ultima Handicap Chase</b></div><div><div>With 23 runners going to post this should be a cracking race - it's one of my favourites in the winter calendar. Unusually, the Irish trainers are out in force this year, and I'm expecting one of them to win the race. The market leaders <b>Meetingofthewaters</b>, <b>The Goffer</b>, and <b>Chianti Classico</b> each have "issues" (see horse-by-horse assesment in yesterday's blog) and I'm expecting the experience of <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Stumptown</b>, a winner over C&D, to prove decisive. I've also suggested eachway wagers on <b>Twig</b>, and <b>Monbeg Genius</b>, as most bookies are paying 6-places eachway. </div><div><b style="background-color: #fcff01;">For me, it's £5 ew Stumptown at 11/1 (William Hill) and £5 win if you are not already on</b>.</div><div><br /></div><div><div><b style="background-color: #01ffff;">3:30pm - Champion Hurdle</b></div><div>This looks a near certainty for <b>State Man</b>, and he is long odds-on - so long as he finished the race he will win. If you are betting without the fav, then <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Iberico Lord at 3/1</b> is the way to go.</div><div><br /></div><div><b style="background-color: #01ffff;">4:10pm - Mares' Hurdle (2m4f)</b></div><div>We have another odds-on Mullins-trained favourite in <b>Lossiemouth</b>, and she should win - however, she's never won over this sort of trip, and there's no guarantee that she will stay 2m4f especially with the notorious Cheltenham uphill finish to contend with. I've not had a wager in this race, but the 14/1 available about <b>Love Envoi</b> looks interesting as she is proven at the trip.</div></div></div><div><br /></div><div><div><b style="background-color: #01ffff;">4:50pm - Juvenile H'Cap</b></div><div>Some races you just have to overlook, and this is one; good luck if having a wager.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><b style="background-color: #01ffff;">5:30pm - NH Chase</b></div><div><div>It's disappoiting that there are just 7 runners in what was a great race. </div><div>I'm expecting Gordon Elliott to cap a remarkable day with a win from <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Salvatore Ziggy @ 6/1 (Bet365) </b>who he has kept under wraps all season. I was going to suggest a saver on <b>Apple Away </b>but the value has gone.</div></div><div><br /></div><div>Good luck and back tomorrow.</div>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-10364925862119581452024-03-11T09:40:00.000+00:002024-03-11T09:40:19.015+00:00Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Ultima Handicap Chase (12Mar)<p>The weights are out, and the declarations are confirmed for the first of the major handicaps of the Festival: the Ultima Handicap Chase over 3m1f. Only 23 entries, one under the maximum, and there are a few surprise non-declarations: Annual Invictus and Giovinco.</p><p>If you have been reading the blog over the past week, you may have noticed that I've not been referring to any "trends" or stats. There's a couple of reasons; a) I believe the domination of the Festival by 3 or 4 trainers (and in particular, Mullins) has put a wrecking ball through the trends; and b) for me, trends only apply to races which are well supported and competitive, in other words, the handicaps.</p><div style="text-align: left;">I'm going to look at every runner in the Ultima Handicap, as you just cannot ignore any of them: we've had a couple of repeat winners (Corach Rambler and Un Temps Pour Tout), a veteran winner (Vintage Clouds); and a very young novice winner (Coo Star Sivola) in recent years. Right, let's go!</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b>Eldorado Allen: </b>10yo, and you could describe him as a class horse, as he was in the Gold Cup last year (came 7th); he's not going to be far away based on his run in the old "Hennessey" on 02Dec; but he does find winning tricky (4 from 21). <br /><b>Run Wild Fred:</b> 10yo, hasn't won since Nov21, and the handicapper hasn't given him much chance with OR149, as he'd need a career-best to win off that.<br /><b>Highland Hunter:</b> not the obvious type being an 11yo, and he's had 3 races since Xmas.<br /><span style="background-color: #fcff01;"><b>Stumptown:</b> This 7yo ran 2nd in the "Kim Muir" (3m2f) last season, and won here on New Years Day; he looks the type to go close and Gavin Cromwell is no mug. <br /></span><span style="background-color: #fcff01;"><b>Monbeg Genius:</b> Nobody wants the owner to win this race, but this 8yo is running and his 3rd in the old "Hennessey" (beat Eldorado Allen) plus running 3rd in this races last year, puts him in the picture. Rated OR147, that's fair and odds of 12/1 put him on the shortlist.<br /></span><b>The Goffer:</b> the subject of a significant gamble so far, but I'm not convinced this 7yo is the one. Ran 3rd last season in this race off OR149, so running off OR144 suggests he could be well-in. However, he comes in off a 142 day break (last run on 22Oct) and that could be too much.<br /><b>Meetingofthewaters:</b> Bought recently by JP McManus, sure he won a decent handicap in Dec off OR130, but this is a lot more to ask of the 7yo especially off OR147, and he unseated his rider LTO.<br /><b>Chambard:</b> this 12yo won the "Kim Muir" in 2022, but surely won't figure in this race.<br /><b>Minella Crooner:</b> a top novice chaser, this 8yo has not set the world alight this season and may struggle, as recent run didn't suggest a change in form.<br /><b>Kitty's Light:</b> Loves Ayr, and the right-handed tracks of London; I can't see this 8yo enjoying Cheltenham, but could well stay on strong.<br /><b>Gevrey: </b>ran 4th in the "Plate" over 2m4f+ last season, then ran 2nd in the Irish National over 3m5f. Won the Munster National <span style="background-color: white;">in October, but pulled-up twice since: OR145 looks tough.<br /><span><b>Eklat De Rire: </b>A top novice chaser in 2020-21, has had problems so is lightly raced for a 10yo, and if he retains any ability he has slipped to a very useful rating of OR144.<br /></span><b>Victtorino:</b> He didn't look suited to the track when racing here in </span>January, seems to handle right-handed tracks best.<br /><span style="background-color: #fcff01;"><b>Busselton:</b> Comprehensively beaten on 27Dec (race won by Meetingofthewaters), however ran 5th in "Hennessey" in 2022 off OR149, this 7yo likes to run prominently, so not without a chance. <br /></span><b>Trelawne:</b> winner of a 3-mile hurdle, so could stay this trip, but stamina is unproven. <br /><span style="background-color: #fcff01;"><b>Twig:</b> this 9yo has never raced on ground worse than good-to-soft, however ran well when 2nd here on 28Oct. Didn't enjoy "Hennessey" on 02Dec, and not seen since; could be interesting.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Chianti Classico:</b> this 7yo novice chaser looks the type to do well, but does make the odd error, and he's no experience of a big field like this.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Found On:</b> this 9yo mare goes well off a break, but the ground may well be too soft for this "good" ground specialist. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Lord Du Mesnil:</b> this 11yo will stay the trip will, but likely in his own time.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: #fcff01;"><b>Excello:</b> this 5yo is tricky to gauge, he didn't look like he enjoyed the track in January, but his last race in France (before joining Henderson) suggests he should enjoy the trip and ground. Interesting</span><span style="background-color: white;">.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Famous Bridge:</b> this 8yo has winning form at the trip and on the ground, but trainer Nicky Richards tends to not do well when coming South of Birmingham. could stay on late.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Weveallbeencaught:</b> a 7yo novice chaser, without looking a winner in 3 races to date.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Risk And Roll:</b> a 10yo who probably should not be in the race, with just 3 wins from 19 chase races.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white;">My shortlist is </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Stumptown: 10/1 with William Hill (6-places 5th odds a place);</b></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Monbeg Genius: 14/1 (6-places, 5th odds a place) Bet365, William Hill, Betfred;</b></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="background-color: white;">Twig: 20/1 </span><span style="background-color: white;">(6-places, 5th odds a place) Bet365, William Hill, Coral;</span></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white;">I will also have a couple of "place-only" wagers on Excello and Busselton on the exchanges.</span></div>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-76254528266935390142024-03-10T13:12:00.004+00:002024-03-10T13:12:37.654+00:00Cheltenham Festival 2024 update - 9th March<div style="text-align: left;">This is it, as of Saturday 9th March we have all the confirmed entries for the meeting, all we are missing is the final declarations; and for Tuesday that will come midday Sunday. We have few significant unanswered questions, such as which Mullins horse will Paul Townend ride in the Arkle? Now that Ballyburn is confirmed for the "Gallagher", just how many rivals will he face in that race and, of those that don't take up the challenge which race will they end-up in? Let's look at the entries for Gold Cup day.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Friday opens with the <b style="background-color: #01ffff;">Triumph Hurdle for 4yo's</b>; this can be a tricky race but the market usually gets this right. By Friday, we should know just how well the Henderson stable is firing, and that will determine what odds <b>Sir Gino</b> goes off at. He will start the fav, and if I can get 7/4 or longer then I'll be on him. Mullins currently has 7 still in the race, and I expect Townend to ride <b>Majborough</b> and this horse could be anything. A "dark horse" worth an ew wager is <b>Nurburgring</b>: he hasn't run since Boxing Day but that run was as good as anything else we've seen this season as although he didn't win he was conceding weight to smart horses. This isn't a race I tend to wager on until the day.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">The <b style="background-color: #01ffff;">3-mile "Albert Bartlett" novice hurdle</b> is another grade 1 race that I tend not to wager on until the day. Trainer, de Bromhead only has 33/1 chance <b>Chigorin</b> entered; Elliott has 5 entries, butt he shortest in the betting is <b>My Trump Card</b> at 20/1; Mullins on the other hand has 7 entries including the 3 heading the betting: <b>Readin Tommy Wrong</b>, <b>Dancing City</b> and <b>High Class Hero</b>. Right now, the Harry Fry trained <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Gidleigh Park</b> ticks a lot of boxes, and is almost certain to run; for me, he's the most interesting. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">The final Grade 1 race of the Festival is the <b style="background-color: #01ffff;">Gold Cup, run over 3m 2f & 70yds</b>.</div><div style="text-align: left;">It's very difficult to look past last years winner <b>Galopin Des Champs</b>, who has showed with his last couple of races that he's as good, if not better, than last season. Personally, I'm amazed that odds of 5/4 are available, as he looks an odds-on chance to me. So I will be looking at using him as a "banker" in doubles and trebles. Martin Brassil seriously rates the chance of <b>Fastorslow</b>, and he does look better at the fences than GDC, but the champion has the edge on speed and stamina. In my eyes, <b>Shishkin</b> demonstrated at Newbury last month that had he not made the error 2-out in the King George at Kempton, he'd have won and probably won with something in hand. In 2nd, would have been <b>Bravemansgame</b>, as he lost at least 3-lengths (plus momentum) at the 2nd-last through no fault of his own, then stayed on strong. Without that interference, he would not have been caught and passed by <b>Hewick</b>, but I doubt he'd have beaten Shishkin. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="background-color: #fcff01;">My 1-2-3 is Galopin Des Champs; with Shishkin 2nd, and Bravemansgame 3rd</b>. </div><div style="text-align: left;">There's not much between Bravemansgame and Fastorslow; but BMG has more 160+ performances and we know after running 2nd in the Gold Cup last season, that he handles the track & trip well. I don't think <b>Gerri Colombe</b> or <b>Hewick</b> will figure in the race - unless we have some fallers - and I can see why some are considering Grand National winner <b>Corach Rambler</b> as having an ew chance (Grand National winners tend to do well in the Gold Cup) but this year the Gold Cup looks more competitive than most years. If there is a dark horse in the race, it's L'Homme Presse.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-15311235196190342792024-03-08T13:10:00.002+00:002024-03-08T16:46:40.604+00:00Cheltenham Festival 2024 update - 8th March <div style="text-align: left;">We've not long to go now, and big news is coming thick and fast.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Ballyburn</b> now has the confirmed race target of the "Gallagher" hurdle on Wednesday over 2m5f (and NOT the Supreme Hurdle). I've thought this would be the case for some weeks, and posted this on my blog on 12th February with a recommendation to take the odds of 2/1 NRNB that were on offer at the time. <b>Ballyburn</b> looks virtually 'bombproof' for the "Gallagher", and that's reflected in the current betting.</div><div style="text-align: left;">It is also certain that <b>Gaelic Warrior</b> is running in the "Arkle" and not the "Turners" on Day-3 of the Festival which, to be honest, I kind of expected as I think Gaelic Warrior has the potential to being the best 2-mile chaser that Mullins has trained - but he's to prove he can win going left-handed first.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">I'm not getting too many readers of the blog - just 48 for yesterdays blog - but I'm not necessarily looking for readers; I'm doing this for myself. But if you do enjoy it, make it known on "X" (ex-twitter).</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Wednesday at the Festival opens with the <b style="background-color: #01ffff;">Turners Novices' Chase over 2m4f</b>; and this year's race does not look like being as competitive as last year. This is one of the few Grade 1 "championship" races that I've not had a wager in yet. The current fav is <b>Ginny's Destiny</b> who is trained by Paul Nicholls who sent Stage Star to win this last year. This horse certainly looks the part on form, and deserves to head the market. But I like <b>Grey Dawning</b> a little more, and so does the official handicapper who has him 6lb higher on OR153. The well respected <b>Facile Vega</b> would definitely win this were it a hurdle race, but his jumping lets him down, and I don't think he will stay this trip well enough to figure at the finish. If <b>Iroko</b> runs, then he has to be respected, but I'm not sure that's going to happen; and there's not many horses that can win a Grade 1 at the Festival having not run this side of Christmas. The rest of the entries look decidedly outclassed, apart from <b>Giovinco</b> who I think is well-handicapped on OR146 so if he skips this for a handicap I will be well pleased; and the 9yo <b>Letsbeclearaboutit</b> who has been in some decent races in Ireland. Trainer Gavin Cromwell is no mug and this horse has the pace and stamina to stay involved to the finish. I think I will wait until the day as I should be able to better the current 7/2 on Grey Dawning; but <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">I'm taking the NRNB available on the latter couple mentioned: Giovinco at 25/1 and Letsbeclearaboutit at 40/1 (Paddy Power) - both ew</b>. <span style="color: #2b00fe;">Unfortunately the 40/1 has gone, best now is 33/1 NRNB with Paddy Power.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">The <b style="background-color: #01ffff;">Ryanair Chase</b> is a race that for some reason I always seem to read wrong - I think the only time I've been on the winner is when Cue Card romped home back in 2013. <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">I've already taken 6/1 about Stage Star</b> following his win in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last November. I also took the odds of 10/1 that were available last April after <b>Envoi Allen</b> won this race at the last Festival - yes, 10/1. He's been given a very light season by his trainer, de Bromhead; and as he won this race last season - beating Shishkin, no less - after being beaten out of sight in the "King George" at Kempton, that he's not run since just failing to win the Grade 1 Drinmore over 3-miles in November is no worry to me. The form of <b>Banbridge</b> is also strong, and you cannot fault his last 3 runs; he could be the best of these but, given how close they are matched, his current odds of 3/1 offer (to me) no value. The only other horse capable of mixing-it in this race is <b>Protektorat</b>: he's not won a race since being gifted the Betfair Chase in Nov22 (18 months ago), but his form this season has been his best ever and he's consistent. He was available at over 20/1 a few weeks ago, and I wish I'd availed myself of some, but 12/1 is available with Bet365 (he's 10's everywhere else). I'm expecting Stage Star to win this race. <span style="color: #2b00fe;">Bit of late news that <b>Ga Law</b> has been supplemented, but he needs to find about 7lb on his recent win at Cheltenham in January to win this, and possibly a tad more. Had he run to form last season (when 5th in this race) he would probably have come 4th - but that's still 5 or 6 lengths off last years winner. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">One of my favourite races of the Festival is the <b style="background-color: #01ffff;">Stayer's Hurdle over 3-mile</b>, as I've found the winner a number of times in recent years. Last year was a complete blow-out, but then the form of this division had been erratic all season - which culminated in the 11yo Sire Du Berlais winning at 33/1 with the 10yo Dashel Drasher in 2nd at 40/1. That leads me to dismiss <b>Teahupoo</b> who, if he couldn't win last year with the ground in his favour (the softer the better for him) he's unlikely to win this year. The rumour is <b>Irish Point </b>will run in the Champion Hurdle (2nd pays £95k) and as he's not guaranteed to stay 3-mile at this level, I think he will run on Tuesday. <b>Crambo</b> just isn't good enough by a long way, remember he was 3rd in a handicap hurdle over 3-mile on 25Nov off OR139 - he should have won that by 15-lengths is he really is capable of winning this race on Thursday. Horses don't find 15lb of improvement overnight as a 7yo. I can see why some think the answer is <b>Noble Yeats</b>, who has abundant stamina, but he merely ran to his rating of OR152 in the Cleeve Hurdle, but what he does have tho' is a turn-of-foot which can win a muddling race. If I thought <b>Sir Gerhard</b> would stay 3-mile he would be my choice, but that's a questionmark, although he will enjoy soft ground. If you are considering <b>Monkfish</b> after pretty much 3 years on the sick list, then you are dreaming. The more you look at this race, the more you see how weak it is and lacking depth - yet there's a proven horse at the trip and on the course: <b>Flooring Porter</b>. He had a lot of problems last season, and still ran 4th in this race last season beaten just over 3 lengths. He's looked very fit and well this season: he just isn't as good at jumping fences as hurdles. Gavin Cromwell has brought this horse along very quietly, and he could be in-line for massive gamble on the Thursday. <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">For me, it's Flooring Porter all the way; he's 12/1 NRNB</b>.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-74878302108817124042024-03-07T15:55:00.000+00:002024-03-07T15:55:06.882+00:00Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Update 7th MarchAn interesting development today, as a horse I have on my radar for the Ultima Handicap on Tuesday was expected to run in the Cross Country Chase on Wed, but is now not a confirmed entry for that race - <b>Annual Invictus</b>: last seen winning the Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase at Doncaster on 27th Jan, and did so by leading from the 2nd fence to the line. The form of that race is top notch, as Forward Plan went on to win the (Class 1) Coral Trophy at Kempton. <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">I've taken 25/1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap</b>. <div><br /></div><div>The opening race of the 2nd day of the Festival is the <b style="background-color: #01ffff;">"Gallagher" Novices Hurdle over 2m5f</b>. The odds-on antepost fav for this race is <b>Ballyburn</b>, who is also the fav for the Supreme Novices Hurdle on Day-1. He can't run in both, so which is he likely to run in? Yesterday, I reasoned that Mullins is most likely to run Ballyburn in this race and I've not changed my mind overnight. I can see Mullins having a few in this race, as I'm expecting both <b>Ile Atlantique</b> and <b>Mystical Power</b> to run, and probably <b>Readin Tommy Wrong</b> too. What will be his 1st-string? That will be the one ridden by Paul Townend. The only other possible Mullins horse that could run is Predators Gold, but I'm expecting that one to run in the Albert Bartlett over 3-miles.</div><div>It is difficult to consider anything else other than Ballyburn for this race, but if he does run in the "Supreme" instead, then I will be looking at <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Ile Atlantique</b> who is possibly a better horse than the one we saw beaten a neck LTO by Readin Tommy Wrong. Of the others, only <b>Captain Teague</b> looks capable of being involved at the finish, as his 3rd last year in the Champion Bumper shows he's a touch of class about him. </div><div><br /></div><div>The <b style="background-color: #01ffff;">"Brown Advisory" Novice Chase</b> over an extended 3-miles has developed into a proper race recently, after a period in the doldrums. Unfortunately, there are only 11 in the confirmed entries, and I doubt all will go to post. <b>Embassy Gardens</b> is almost certain to go for the NH Chase on the opening day, and I very much doubt <b>Gaelic Warrior</b> will run in this race over the "Turners" on Day-3.</div><div>The odds-on fav is yet another Mullins-trained horse, <b>Fact To File</b>; and he's interesting as he hasn't had a season hurdling. Is he an odds-on chance? Personally, I don't think he is, although he is a worthy fav. I thi<span style="background-color: white;">nk <b>Stay Away Fay</b> has e</span>ven stronger form going into this race, and it's particularly pleasing that trainer Paul Nicholls has not entered the horse in any other race. The Skelton-trained <b>Grey Dawning</b> is another horse with strong formlines, and it would not surprise me to see this one leading at the final fence. Gordon Elliott has <b>American Mike</b>, but he doesn't look good enough and the horse he beat LTO (Nick Rockett) doesn't have a Festival entry. When you look at the race won by <b>Broadway Boy</b> at Cheltenham in December, beating Threeunderthrufive and Protektorat (it was a handicap), you have to wonder why he's not heading the betting. However, he doesn't like like being challenged for the lead like he was LTO by Grey Dawning, and there will be plenty of pace on in this race. If there is a horse that is under-estimated it's<b> Giovinco</b>: he's absolutely bred to win a Gold Cup (dam a half-sister to Rocky Creek who was rated OR163 at best), and he could be one to sneak 3rd or better and is available at 33/1 (Paddy Power and Skybet), and there may only be 7 or 8 starters come Wednesday! David Pipe has a complete unknown dark-horse in Jamaico who is yet to run in the UK or Ireland and is entered for just about everything with a fence to jump. This looks a race to watch and not wager, as there's no value in the fav, and there's no value in those likely to fill the places if the fav does win. If push comes to shove, to have an interest in the race, <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">I'd have a small ew wager on Giovinco at 33/1</b>. </div><div><br /></div><div>The <b style="background-color: #01ffff;">Queen Mother Champion Chase</b> (when are they going to rename this race, I wonder?) will almost certainly go to <b>El Fabiolo</b> barring a mishap. And to think there was a lot of doubt over this horse when novice chasing prior to winning the Irish Arkle! There's no doubt that <b>Jonbon</b> is the 2nd-best 2-miler in the field, and he won't make the mistake that he did LTO.</div><div><br /></div><div>A few notes on the <b style="background-color: #01ffff;">Grand Annual handicap Chase</b>: this time last year I wanted <b>Saint Roi</b> to run in this rather than the Arkle, and he was handicapped OR153 then. Now he's on OR150 and his ability hasn't dimmed - this horse has won the County Hurdle (2021), come 3rd in the Champion hurdle (2022), and come 3rd in the Arkle (2023); he looks the perfect candidate for this race. However, if Found A Fifty wins the Arkle on Tuesday, expect the gamble of the Festival on <b>My Mate Mozzie</b> - he could go off at odds under 3/1.</div>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-47835376467140893422024-03-06T21:39:00.000+00:002024-03-06T21:39:28.886+00:00Cheltenham Festival 2024 - update 6th March <p>An interesting day today (no, not the Budget) as the confirmed runners were named for the opening day of the Festival. For me, the biggest disappointment was the continued demise of the NH Chase, which is the race with the longest history at the Cheltenham Festival. Was it the reduction of the trip for this race to 3m6f that was the nail in the coffin? I don't know, but what I do know is that there are only 10 potential runners in the race as of today; and I would not be surprised if only 7 or 8 go to post.</p><div style="text-align: left;">That's the same for the opening race of the Festival: the <b style="background-color: #01ffff;">Supreme Novices' Hurdle</b>. Currently there are a potential 15 runners in the race; but I doubt Mullins will send 100/1 chances <b>Gold Dancer</b> and <b>Supersundae</b> to take part; and <b>Kings Hill</b> and <b>Favour And Fortune</b> are also outclassed and unlikely runners. Mullins is responsible for 7 of the remaining 11 potential runners, so let's look at the "non-Mullins" horses. My favourite is <b>Firefox</b> trained by Gordon Elliott: it looked like he didn't stay 2m4f LTO when fading after the final flight, but his run before that when he beat the current fav Ballyburn looked top class. It's probable that Ballyburn has improved since then, but then it's likely Firefox has too. Nicky Henderson has the 5yo <b>Jeriko Du Reponet</b> (owned by JP McManus), but I'm not sure that he's good enough, although you can never underestimate a Henderson entry. Henry de Bromhead has <b>Slade Steel</b>, who was comprehensively beaten by Ballyburn LTO. Ben Pauling sends the 5yo <b>Tellherthename</b> and he thinks a lot of this one who cost £200k; unfortunately the form is difficult to assess. </div><div style="text-align: left;">Of the Mullins entries, it all hangs on <b>Ballyburn</b>: clearly a class horse, personally I think 2m4f is the way to go and that Mullins hasn't shown his hand yet suggests if he thinks he can win the Supreme with another horse he will. The JP McManus owned <b>Mystical Power</b> is also entered in the Baring Bingham over 2m5f on Wed, and as his dam Annie Power stayed 3-mile (as well as being good enough to win the Champion Hurdle) it would not surprise me if he went for that race instead (leaving McManus to have Jeriko Du Reponet representing him). So, that would leave <b>Tullyhill</b> who looked to have exceptional potential when winning LTO to be the main Mullins representative. Mullins does have a strong hand for the Baring Bingham as he also has <b>Ile Atlantique</b> who looks like he needs 2m5f. The Festival could have come a bit too soon for the 5yo's <b>Mistergif</b> and <b>Anotherway</b>; and <b>Asian Master</b> just isn't good enough (but could be used as a pace-maker). </div><div style="text-align: left;">I think we will see Firefox / Jeriko Du Reponet / Slade Steel / Tellherthename / Ballyburn / Tullyhill and Asian Master line-up (7 runners) - and <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">I'm on Firefox already at 10/1</b> and I'm also interested in taking the current odds of 4/1 on <b>Tullyhill</b> just-in-case Mullins sends Ballyburn for the Baring Bingham on Wednesday.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">The <b style="background-color: #01ffff;">Arkle Novices Chase</b> over 2-mile is yet another race which could have under 10 going to post. Mullins holds 5 of the 15 entries confirmed today, and it's very likely that he will have the fav in <b>Il Etait Temps</b> who was last seen staying-on strong to win the Irish Arkle. Now, I like this horse but my worry is that he didn't repeat the level of form he showed last year at the Dublin Festival and either Cheltenham or Punchestown - but he should run a solid race. Will he, or won't he run <b>Gaelic Warrior</b>? Even if he does run him, after his display LTO when he appeared to hate running left-handed, I can't have him. If Townend doesn't ride him I won't have a penny on. The well-bred <b>Facile Vega</b> looks desperately wanting 2m4f and I expect to see that one run in the "Turners" on Thursday. There are a lot of good judges putting-up <b>Hunters Yarn</b>, and he clearly has an engine, but he's made significant errors in both his races and I don't think he's a 5/1 chance. And I really cannot see him running <b>Sharjah</b> in this race at 11yo - he's been a good servant, time to put him out to grass. Of the others; my particular fav is <b>Found A Fifty</b>: he's done nothing wrong in his 4 chase races this season, and the form bares-up to inspection; not only that he has the stamina for 2m4f and he likes to lead. Some many ticks in the boxes. The 2021 Triumph Hurdle winner <b>Quilixios </b>has recovered his form after 2 years on the side-lines. He beat Sa Fureur LTO (that one holds a couple of handicap entries) over 2-miles but I think he could be better over 2m4f,and he doesn't look value to me at 6/1. Personally, I don't think any of the other entries are good enough to win an Arkle, but I do think My Mate Mozzie is one of the best handicapped novice chasers around going into the Festival - he's going to take a some to be beaten in the Grand Annual on Wednesday.</div><div style="text-align: left;">After the Irish Arkle, <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">I took 6/1 about both Il Etait Temps and Found A Fifty</b>, and I'm going to increase my stake on Found A Fifty as I think he's bullet-proof. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">The withdrawal of Constitution Hill has thrown the <b style="background-color: #01ffff;">Champion Hurdle</b> into a quandary -how to make this a meaningful race? In some respects, I'm laughing - Nicky Henderson (in my opinion) has egg all over his face as, by his own insecurity, he's wasted this season. The defection also clearly demonstrates the lack of depth in the hurdling division - something I've been remarking on for years as Faugheen in 2015 was the last "proper" Champion Hurdler and had he not been injured he'd have surely followed-up in 2016 and 2017. This will be a virtual walkover for State Man. I very much doubt the mare <b>Lossiemouth</b> will run being just a 5yo, and the same goes for <b>Zarak The Brave</b>. Gordon Elliott will probably provide the runner-up, being either Irish Point or Pied Piper. Personally, I think <b>Pied Piper </b>is nailed on for 2nd as that's the position he filled in the County Hurdle last season when just failing to win. However, he's apparently going for the County again (which is gutting for me as I have a 40/1 ew wager on him for the Champion Hurdle, plus a double with Firefox in the Supreme). As such, if none of those 3 run, then the most logical selection for 2nd is <b>Irish Point</b>, but he wasn't exactly quick as a novice hurdler, and he looks more comfortable over 2m4f. Therefore, it's no surprise that Henderson and JP McManus have entered the Betfair Handicap Hurdle winner Iberico Lord; odds of 16/1 are available and that's fair. Note: £10 on State Man at 2/5 returns £14; whereas £5 eachway at 16/1 on Iberico Lord returns £21 for 2nd or 3rd place.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">The <b style="background-color: #01ffff;">Mares Hurdle over 2m4f</b> is yet another race dominated by a Willie Mullins trained odds-on fav in <b>Lossiemouth</b>. The only chink in her formbook is that she's not won beyond 2m1f; and I expect that's why Mullins has also entered <b>Ashroe Diamond</b> who is guaranteed to stay. However, I think <b>Love Envoi</b> could have something to say in this race, having chased home Honeysuckle last year; she's the one I think that looks the value at 10/1. Although <b>Marie's Rock</b> is a better mare now than she was when she won this race in 2022, she's not at the level she needs to be to win. The Mullins-trained <b>Echoes In Rain</b> and <b>Gala Marceau</b> are just not good enough on known form. It may be worth having a small ew wager on <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">You Wear It Well</b> who won the Mares Novice Hurdle last year and perhaps didn't stay 3-mile when going close at Doncaster. She flopped LTO so if there's a doubt about her being in top form she may not run; but she could sneak 3rd place at 50/1.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Now, the <b style="background-color: #01ffff;">NH Chase over 3m6f</b>. The current fav is <b>Corbetts Cross</b>, and yes, he's a horse of potential - that's why he started the "Albert Bartlett" Novice Hurdle over 3-miles at last years' Festival the 9/4 fav - he's failed to show that promise yet, but he has hinted at it. That he was easily beaten over 3-mile at Leopardstown on 29-Dec suggests he's not the strongest. The 2nd fav <b>Embassy Gardens</b> has a stronger profile having won both his chase starts with ease; he just may lack a bit of pace. The Gordon Elliott trained <b>Salvatore Ziggy</b> is interesting: he stays 3-mile as a hurdler and a chaser, and goes well off a long break - he easily has the strongest form. Nothing else in the race comes within 10lb of those 3, and this is a race which is invariably won by the highest rated runner (yes, it's seems obvious, but "dark horses" with only 1 or 2 races showing indeterminate ability, don't win the NH Chase). <span style="background-color: #fcff01;"><b>Odds of 9/2 are available on Salvatore Ziggy from Coral and Ladbrokes, and that may seem very generous come Tuesday afternoon</b></span>, </div><p>I will be having a long look at the Ultima Handicap Chase later in the week.</p>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-87758079342771524992024-02-12T14:11:00.002+00:002024-02-12T14:11:42.334+00:00Cheltenham Festival update - 12th Feb<div style="text-align: left;">Following on from Saturday's blog, I'm continuing with a look through the Cheltenham Festival programme in the search for value. It's too early to consider the handicaps, there will be plenty of time to consider those when the declarations are made.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">The 2nd-day of the Festival (13th March) opens with the</div><div style="text-align: left;"><u>Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle over 2m5f</u></div><div style="text-align: left;">For a long time this was the premier novice hurdle of the season, but since Faugheen won in 2014, the winners of this race haven't really progressed as expected. The race does illustrate the transfer of power from England to Ireland as in the past 10 years, there's only been one winner of the race trained in England and that was Willoughby Court in 2017.</div><div style="text-align: left;">I think Mullins will run <b>Ballyburn</b> in this race rather than the "Supreme" on the opening day. Why? Because this looks a weaker race, especially as <b>Caldwell Potter</b> is not running at the Festival; as such, Mullins trains all the main contenders. <b>Slade Steel</b> (de Bromhead) doesn't look anywhere near good enough; <b>Mystical Power</b> (Mullins) is more likely to run in the Supreme; as will <b>Ile Atlantique</b> (Mullins). As for <b>Readin Tommy Wrong</b> (Mullins) while he will likely run in this race, I feel he is more of a 3-miler and he also holds an entry for the "Albert Bartlett". </div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Skybet offer odds of 2/1 (NRNB) on Ballyburn, and I'm taking that.</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><u>Brown Advisory Novice Chaser over 3-mile</u></div><div style="text-align: left;">This race, and the NH Chase on the opening day, look fairly open. Mullins has only won this twice in the past 10 years, and his likely 1st-string <b>Grangeclare West</b> is apparently out for the season. I'm expecting <b>Fact To File</b> (Mullins) to go for the "Turners" on Day-3 over 2m4f, and (with <b>Gaelic Warrior</b> seemingly unable to run left-handed) his main chance in this race was expected to be one of <b> Nick Rockett</b>,<b> Minella Cocooner</b>, or <b>Embassy Gardens</b>. </div><div style="text-align: left;">Given how <b>Nick Rockett </b>and<b> Minella Cocooner</b> flopped yesterday, it should be Embassy Gardens and I'm tempted to take the 11/2 (NRNB) offered by Bet365.</div><div style="text-align: left;">However, the English trainers have a strong hand for this race in <b>Stay Away Fay</b> (PF Nicholls) and <b>Grey Dawning</b> (Dan Skelton). Both of these are proven at the trip and have very strong form. The current odds offered on both Stay Away Fay and Grey Dawning are poor value, and I reckon you will be able to obtain around 9/2 - 11/2 on the day; and there's a strong possibility that Stay Away Fay will go for the NH Chase over 3m6f.</div><div style="text-align: left;">Right now, I'm only interested in the <b>11/2 (NRNB) offered by Bet365 on Embassy Gardens</b>.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div><u>Queen Mother Champion Chase over 2-miles</u></div><div>It's near impossible to consider any other horse other than <b>El Fabiolo </b>winning this, and if he doesn't it will be Jonbon. However, in jump racing nothing is certain, as<b> Jonbon</b> proved LTO - there's always a possibility of jumping errors, although I hope that doesn't happen. What could be 3rd? There's a lot of support for <b>Edwardstone</b> after his win at Newbury on Saturday, but I'm not sure he's at his best at Cheltenham, and last year's runner-up <b>Captain Guinness (currently 20/1 with Skybet)</b> could be the one.</div><div><br /></div><div>The only other non-handicap race (I'm not looking at the Cross Country race which should be run at another track and has no place at the Festival) is the "Bumper" but I'd want odds of 5/1 just to name a runner in the race, never mind the eventual winner.</div></div>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-87642698721694822872024-02-10T18:32:00.002+00:002024-02-12T13:39:18.624+00:00Cheltenham Festival 2024 - general update (10th Feb)<p>I've started this blog several times over the past couple of weeks, but then left it unfinished as the antepost odds available do not accommodate enough "risk" element to cover the potential of not running in the race on the day. The "Non Runner, No Bet" (NRNB) odds are truly pathetic and I'm fairly sure that better value will be available at the Festival in March. So what's this blog about? Essentially, I'm going to try and narrow down the entries to identify the likely runners, and in the process endeavour to find some value - if it exists.</p><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Tuesday 12th March</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><u>Supreme Novices' Hurdle:</u></div><div style="text-align: left;">Current fav is<b> Ballyburn</b> (WP Mullins) and while he looks a capable winner at this stage, I think he's a better horse at 2m4f+ (like his full brothers) and so he's more likely to go for the 2m5f hurdle on Day-2. <b>Mystical Power</b> is a more likely runner for Mullins, but his form doesn't appear strong enough to suggest he's a likely winner. I'm expecting Mullins to have several runners in the race, one being <b>Mirazur West</b> a full-brother of Ferny Hollow, and another being <b>Mistergif</b> an expensive purchase given a run on 30th Jan. While you cannot ignore Henderson entries in this race, what we've seen of <b>Jeriko Di Reponet </b>does not suggest he's good enough to win this race. With Gordon Elliott losing <b>Caldwell Potter</b> (now with Paul Nicholls) his main hope is <b>Firefox</b>, and this one beat Ballyburn over 2-mile on 02Dec. Firefox was then disappointing stepped-up to 2m4f, but if he lines-up for this and is in top form, he could go close. it would not surprise me to see Mullins have 4 or 5 runners in this race, and <b>Ile Atlantique</b> ticks a lot of boxes, and was only just btn LTO: on form, he looks the strongest Mullins entry after Ballyburn.Of the other entries, the JP McManus owned <b>No Flies On Him</b> could be anything as he won a good race on his sole hurdle run to date. Caldwell Potter may run in this race, but it would not surprise me to see him not run again this season, as his future is as a chaser.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>I'm tempted to take NRNB odds about:</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Mistergif @ 25/1 (Bet365); Ile Atlantique @ 16/1 (Bet365) and Firefox @ 10/1 (Bet365)</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><u>Arkle Novice Chase</u></div><div style="text-align: left;">I been taking a long-look at this race, and (even before the Dublin Racing Festival) I was liking the look of <b>Found A Fifty</b> and <b>Il Etait Temps</b>. Since they finished 1st & 2nd last weekend, I've taken the odds available about the pair, and will plump for one or the other closer to the Festival. Found A Fifty hasn't run a bad race all season, and looks to want more of a stamina test in time, as such I'm leaning more towards him as my Arkle selection. Despite winning LTO, in my mind Il Etait Temps may be best suited by a flatter track than Cheltenham, and I see him more of an Aintree horse. What of <b>Marine Nationale</b>? Beaten horses at the DRF tend not to recover and win at Cheltenham - it's not impossible, but it's unlikely. If (like Sizing Europe in 2010) he'd fallen at the final fence when looking the likely winner, I could take a more positive view - but he emptied out quickly suggesting something was amiss (breathing problem?). One to keep an eye out for is </div><div><b>My Mate Mozzie</b>: he probably has too much speed, and not enough stamina to win the Arkle, but he looks to be well handicapped.</div><div><b>I'm on Il Etait Temps @ 5/1 (NRNB) and Found A Fifty @ 6/1 (NRNB)</b></div><div><br /></div><div><u>Champion Hurdle</u></div><div>With the front two in the betting Constitution Hill and State Man, unlikely to be beaten by another on the day, there's the 3rd place spot to find. I was all over Bob Olinger and had an eachway voucher at 33/1 on him - but he now goes straight to Aintree. Zanahiyr filled 3rd spot last year, but is likely to remain chasing. However, Gordon Elliott has able deputies in Irish Point and Pied Piper, and both look more than capable of taking 3rd in this race. I need to find something similar in another Festival race for a long-odds eachway double.</div><div style="text-align: left;"> </div><div style="text-align: left;"><u>Mares Hurdle </u></div><div style="text-align: left;">I really cannot see Lossiemouth running in the Champion Hurdle unless State Man can't take part in that race, and she looks a near certainty to win this. She cannot be opposed.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><u>National Hunt Chase</u></div><div style="text-align: left;">At this moment, I'm still surprised that Flooring Porter is the 3rd fav as I'd be surprised if he takes part. This race still looks fairly fluid regards what's going to take part, but the "Ten Up" Chase at Naas on Sunday 11th Feb is usually a good pointer. I'm taking Minella Cocooner to beat his stablemate Nick Rockett and leap to joint-fav for the NH Chase - he's currently 8/1 (NRNB). I'm not convinced (yet) by Embassy Gardens, and this looks a good opportunity to lock-in some value.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">More to come...</div>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-64584409228021204952024-01-15T09:37:00.000+00:002024-01-15T09:37:28.284+00:00Cheltenham Festival 2024 - general update<div style="text-align: left;">Some interesting results in the past week, and an update on the official entries for a slew of races at the Festival. First up, the results.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Banbridge </b>beat a strong field to win the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase over 2m4f & 110 yds with the consistent Pic D'orhy in 2nd. Given this was the 1st run from Banbridge since winning at Aintree over a similar trip, it's possible that there's some improvement to come from the 8yo who has only had 6 chase runs (winning 4). He's entered for the Ryanair Chase at the Festival and so long as the ground isn't too soft (he was withdrawn from the "Turners" Novice Chase won by Stage Star last March, due to soft ground), he has to have a good chance. However, in my opinion, <b>Stage Star</b> still holds all the aces: he loves Cheltenham, excels at the 2m4f trip, and has the best form at this stage. </div><div style="text-align: left;">Sunday, saw the potentially talented <b>Blood Destiny</b> come-up against some equally talented peers and falter. Personally, I thought he was outstayed and the Arkle (run over 2-mile) will likely remain his target for the time being, although I expect how he performs in the Irish Arkle on 3rd Feb will determine his target at the Cheltenham Festival. My immediate impression is that he may not be good enough for a graded race at Cheltenham.</div><div style="text-align: left;">I was most impressed with the race winner <b>Spillane's Tower</b> - he was never under any pressure, jumped well throughout, picked-up the leaders and stayed on strong. He's won at 2-miles, but he looks a lot stronger at 2m4f, and if he takes up and entry to the Turners Novice Chase at Cheltenham, he'd certainly be on my shortlist. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Unfortunately, the official entries have come out for the Stayers' Hurdle over 3-miles at the Festival, my my antepost selection <b>Bob Olinger</b> isn't entered, which is a bit of a blow as I thought he had a fair chance of success in that race, but he's no chance in the Champion Hurdle for which he is entered. There is a possibility of him running 3rd, but only if Impaire Et Passe gives the race a swerve and goes straight to Aintree for the 2m4f Aintree Hurdle. I've no doubt that we can recover our antepost loss on him in the weeks to come.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Finding potential antepost wagers isn't easy, as first you have to decide which race the horse is going to run in, and then decide if the horse has a realistic chance of winning, and finally do the current odds represent value. Sure, the odds may be longer now than they will be on the day, but do they include an element of risk that the horse won't run; and even if the horse does run, will it have it's preferred ground?</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Looking at the novice hurdle races, the <b>Supreme Novices Hurdle</b> which opens the Festival looks a mess to me. The current fav <b>Mystical Power</b> ran for the first time today (14Jan) since 31July and could do no more than win a 4-runner race in comparative ease. Just how good is he? It's difficult to say, but probably better than OR145, but is he? The 2nd-fav <b>Jeriko Du Reponet</b> has form even more vague, all we can go off is stable gossip. <b>Ballyburn</b> will almost certainly go for the Ballymore Hurdle over 2m5f for which he's the current fav. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Caldwell Potter</b>? His full-brother Mighty Potter was a top-draw novice hurdler over 2-miles, so there's potential in him. Then, <b>A Dream To Share</b> hasn't run in nearly a year. </div><div style="text-align: left;">At Naas on Friday 12Jan, <b>Readin Tommy Wrong</b> beat his well-regarded stable companion <b>Ile Atlantique</b> over 2m4f with another well-regarded runner <b>Firefox</b> back in 4th. RTW is likely to go for the Ballymore, but his owners have another of interest in the Supreme: <b>It's For Me</b>, who beat Caldwell Potter when they met in November. He looks the sort who could well find a lot of improvement, as he wasn't beaten far in the Champion Bumper last March. This is a bit of a punt, but so far It's For Me has run well to a high level in his races, but has always failed to settle. If he can calm his enthusiasm, this is a horse that could be very interesting. Unfortunately, Hills - who are the only NRNB bookie - go a paltry 8/1; so I'm recommending a small interest at 20/1 (without the NRNB protection) in <b>It's For Me</b> and we can keep an eye on the horse. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b><u>Antepost Selection:</u></b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b>Supreme Novices Hurdle: IT'S FOR ME </b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b>£2 win @ 20/1 (available with Bet365, Skybet, PPower, Betfair, Betfred)</b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b>and £1 ew @ 20/1 (5th odds a place 1,2,3)</b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b>Total Staked = £4.00</b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b>Other wagers to date:</b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><div><b>Ryanair Chase: STAGE STAR - </b><b>£8 win @ 7/1 with Bet365</b></div><div><div><b>£2 WIN double with Paddy Power : </b><b>Stayers Hurdle: BOB OLINGER </b><b>@ 25/1 and </b><b>Ryanair Chase: STAGE STAR @ 13/2 </b></div></div><div><div><b>Stayers Hurdle: BOB OLINGER - </b><b>£5 eachway @ 14/1 with Hills (NRNB: 5th odds a place 1,2,3)</b></div><div><b>Stayers Hurdle: BOB OLINGER - </b><b>£2 WIN @ 25/1 with Paddy Power</b></div></div></div></div>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-31180699722482369032024-01-07T12:01:00.000+00:002024-01-07T12:01:23.102+00:00Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Antepost Guide - Ryanair Chase<div style="text-align: left;">Further to my earlier blog on the Stayers' Hurdle, I've been asked why I've sided with Bob Olinger when post-race comments from de Bromhead suggested that the Aintree Hurdle over 2m4f was the main target. I've no special information, it's just that (to me) the Stayers' Hurdle appears to be there for the taking, and would really suit Bob Olinger. </div><div style="text-align: left;">De Bromhead hasn't had a runner in this race since 2019, and that was Petit Mouchoir who never won a race beyond 2-mile - so the Stayers Hurdle is not a race that is usually on his radar. </div><div style="text-align: left;">However, there's a long gap between now and Aintree, and it seemed odd that Bob Olinger came to Cheltenham on 1st Jan. Again, de Bromhead doesn't send much to UK outside of the Cheltenham Festival. He says he wants to avoid Constitution Hill, but that horse with be in the Aintree Hurdle, so there's no avoiding him there - however, Consitution Hill won't be running in the Stayers' Hurdle, that's an absolute certainty.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">The next race I'm taking an in-depth look at is the <b>Ryanair Chase</b> over 2m4f & 127 yards. The Cheveley Park owned <b>Allaho</b> and <b>Envoi Allen</b> are now both 10yo's and I'm not convinced that either of them are at the level of form that has seen one of them take this race for the past 3 seasons. My personal preference of this pair is for Envoi Allen, who won this race last March beating <b>Shishkin</b> in the process, and that looks fairly strong form now. With it being almost certain that Shishkin will be aimed at the Gold Cup, I really can't see anything coming out of the 2023 race and beating Envoi Allen. So, what of his challengers?</div><div style="text-align: left;">In the King George on Boxing Day, <b>Allaho</b> ran well for a long way, but the horse doesn't stay 3-miles at the same level of ability that he runs at trips around 2m4f. He was gifted the race at the 2nd last when Shishkin lost his rider and Bravemansgame was badly impeded, losing at least 4-lengths and valuable momentum; but he still couldn't win the race, and finished 3rd. He doesn't have the form this season to merit his position as the current favourite.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Stage Star</b> won the Turners Novice Chase last March over a trip 162 yards (and 10.37 secs) shorter; and while he could do no more than win, and win decisively, he would need to improve on that effort to topple Envoi Allen. And improve he has - an exceptional performance in the "Paddy Power" saw him confirm the form with <b>Notlongillmay</b> (2nd in the Turners), and the well-beaten 3rd & 4th (Il Ridoto and Fugitif) subsequently fought it out for a top handicap chase at Cheltenham in December. Since then, Stage Star was raced on unsuitable heavy ground on New Years Day, and was pulled-up, but he still looks to be the one to beat in this race. I think he will likely go straight to Cheltenham now without another run, and the 7/1 offered by Bet365 looks tremendous value to me, as I think he should be either the fav, or joint-fav with Allaho.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Of the others likely to run, the 2022 Arkle winner <b>Edwardstone</b> just doesn't look good enough on paper, and I'm not convinced he'd stay tis trip if he was good enough. Just to be clear, in my opinion<i> if a horse equals or betters a performance at at shorter trip when racing at a longer trip</i>, he stays. Edwardstone - currently rated OR162 - would easily beat a horse rated around OR140-145 that was proven at a trip of 2m4f at level weights (or maybe even be capable of giving that horse 7-10lb), but he may struggle to beat a trip-proven horse rated OR150-155. </div><div style="text-align: left;">The Mullins-trained <b>Appreciate It</b> just doesn't look good enough, and probably wasted a season in "bumpers" when he should have been hurdling, and then another season being aimed at the Champion Hurdle when he should have been novice chasing. With more positive campaigning, he may well have been up to winning this race last season as a 9yo, who knows?</div><div style="text-align: left;">After him, the betting is a bit erratic, and I would be more interested in something like <b>Notlongtillmay</b> (currently 40/1 with Bet365) sneaking into 3rd, as the horse clearly handles Cheltenham, even if he's a few pounds behind Stage Star. </div><div style="text-align: left;">A horse that isn't quoted in the antepost betting, but has shown himself to be a potential G1 horse, is the 7yo <b>Feronily</b> trained by Emmet Mullins. Unbelievably, he made his chase debut (under rules) in a Grade 3 over 3-miles at Cork, and beat the one top-class and multiple Grade 1 winner (at 2-miles) Chancun Pour Soi. He then when to the Punchestown Festival and won the Champion Novice Chase there over 3-miles in superlative fashion. Unfortunately, he ran a stinker in October at Galway, so he still has to confirm that he is a proven grade 1 performer, and not just a horse who happened to be fortunate. </div><div style="text-align: left;">The only other likely runners in the race on the day are going to be handicappers like Fugitif, who won't be able to mix-it at Grade 1 level.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div><b><u>Antepost Selection:</u></b></div><div><b>Ryanair Chase: STAGE STAR </b></div><div><b>£8 win @ 7/1 with Bet365</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>also:-</b></div><div><div><b>£2 WIN double with Paddy Power</b></div><div><b>Stayers Hurdle: BOB OLINGER </b><b>@ 25/1</b></div><div><b>Ryanair Chase: STAGE STAR @ 13/2 </b></div></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Total Staked = £10.00</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Total Antepost Stakes to date = £22.00</b></div></div>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-92223454667030857522024-01-05T10:53:00.002+00:002024-01-05T10:53:19.921+00:00Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Antepost guide<p>It's been a long time, but the Wayward Lad blog is back with a focus on the 2024 Cheltenham Festival and building-up a profitable antepost wager portfolio. There's been some tremendous racing in Britain and Ireland over the Christmas and New Year period, which has been (as usual) very informative. </p><p>Let's start with the Championship races, and to be fair I was going to look at the main races in depth; but they look fairly well cut & dried. It's very difficult to see anything beating Constitution Hill in the <b>Champion Hurdle</b>. Then Galopin Des Champs laid down a significant marker to suggest he will be able to retain his <b>Gold Cup</b> crown. And with Energumenee injured, there appears nothing capable of preventing last years Arkle winner El Fabiolo from taking the <b>Champion Chase</b>. </p><p>The current best odds available (from Bet365) are 4.1/1 on Constitution Hill, Galopin Des Champs, and El Fabiolo all succeeding and, to be honest, those odds appear a fair shout to me; you would likely snap the bookies hand-off to get 4/1 come the morning of Tuesday 12th March.</p><p>If you want to find longer odds for an antepost wager, then you are going to have to seek wagers amongst the other races on offer. The Championship race that looks wide open is the <b>Stayers' Hurdle </b>over 3-miles. </p><div style="text-align: left;">The current fav is <b>Teahupoo </b>at 4/1; but he couldn't win last year (ran 3rd) and he shows his best form invariably when going right-handed on very soft or heavy ground - and he will get neither of those at Cheltenham in March! </div><div style="text-align: left;">The 2nd-fav is the French-trained <b>Theleme</b> (available at 9/2); who has never run outside of France and (other than his debut flat race at Pau) has only ever raced at Auteuil - a figure-of-8 track which usually has heavy ground. Based on his win there in May-23 with Klassical Dream in 3rd and Hewick in 4th, it certainly seems that he has the ability to win the Stayers Hurdle - if it was run at Auteuil. However, I think for him to come to Cheltenham and win on the first-time of asking outside of his usual comfort zone will prove difficult, especially as I don't think he will hold enough of a distinct ability advantage. I'd rate him at OR158-160.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Irish Point </b>is a new kid on the block: and he looked a good winner of the 3-mile Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown on 28Dec. Personally, I don't think that he's shown he's good enough just yet and, at his current best odds of 6/1, he doesn't look value. </div><div style="text-align: left;">That can't be said of <b>Impaire Et Passe</b> who won the Ballymore over 2m5f last March in impressive fashion, and would certainly be my idea of the winner if he lines-up for this race. I just feel he's more likely to run in the Champion Hurdle if he runs at the Festival, as his ultimate target is the 2m4f Aintree Hurdle. I will hold-off punting on him just yet until his plans are known, but I would not put anyone off taking the 10/1 offered by Bet365 and Betfred. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Crambo</b>, who won the recent "Long Walk" Hurdle at Ascot, doesn't look good enough to me. Sure, he went head-to-head and beat Paisley Park at Ascot, but that horse is nothing near the horse that won this race in 2019 beating Thistlecrack. Crambo is only a 7yo and is still improving, but remember he was well behind Irish Point (also a 7yo) at Aintree last April, and I'd say based on that race that Irish Point still holds the upper hand. As above, I don't think Irish Point is good enough, so (by default) neither is Crambo.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Sir Gerhard</b> appears to have his best days behind him, and he didn't win a particularly strong race at Punchestown on 31Dec which, based on the comments post-race from trainer Mullins, has thrust him into contention. Sir Gerhard has not looked 'comfortable' at trips around 3-miles, and in my opinion that trip is beyond his stamina limits.</div><div style="text-align: left;">I will be very surprised is any of the old-hands of <b>Sire Du Berlais</b>, <b>Paisley Park</b>, or even <b>Flooring Porter</b> can win this race come March. I'm sure that they will be on the premises, but age catches-up eventually.</div><div style="text-align: left;">For me, the value in the betting is BOB OLINGER: after a period in the doldrums trying his hand, and failing, at chasing; he bounced-back with a good win on New Years Day at Cheltenham over and extended 2m4f. I will be honest and advise that I took odds of 33's (just a couple of quid) before he won the NYD race. He's another "Ballymore" winner, and while he's probably not as good as Impaire Et Passe, this race likely represents his best chance of Cheltenham glory given the weakness of this race and the likelihood that his main rivals could well give this race a miss. He's only raced at 3-miles once as a hurdler, but he was out-of-form at that time, so I'm ignoring that run. It's possible that he will go for the Champion Hurdle, but why run 4th in that race when there's a potential winning chance if running in this?</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><u>Antepost Selection:</u></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Stayers Hurdle: BOB OLINGER </b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>£5 eachway @ 14/1 with Hills (NRNB: 5th odds a place 1,2,3)</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>also:-</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div><b>Stayers Hurdle: BOB OLINGER </b></div><div><b>£2 WIN @ 25/1 with Paddy Power</b></div></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Total Staked = £12.00</b></div><div style="text-align: left;">The intention is to add to this selection over the next few weeks, and combine with another 1 or 2 into doubles and trebles.</div>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-9177133449296211842023-04-14T18:38:00.001+01:002023-04-15T18:39:35.475+01:00Grand National 2023 - The runners<div style="text-align: left;">The most famous horserace in the World, the Grand National, is run next Saturday 15th April at Aintree. This spectacular race is like no other, a unique course, unique fences, and the longest race in the calendar.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">What do we know going into this year's race? With 5 winners in the last 10 years at odds of 25/1 or longer, you cannot discount the chance of any particular horse. Last years winner <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Noble Yeats</b> won with 10st 10lb off OR147, and this year he is set to carry 11st 11lb off OR166. Personally, I don't think he's a 19lb better horse (OR166 less OR147), but he has improved and will stay every yard. If he's near the front with 2 fences to go then he's going to be thereabouts.</div><div style="text-align: left;">The horse he beat into 2nd, <b>Any Second Now</b>, carries 11st 12lb (4lb more than last year, when rated OR159), and he has been aimed at this race all season, he won't be far away at the finish, and at 16/1 he looks fair eachway value - however, I can't see either of this pair winning.</div><div style="text-align: left;">Before I go any further, the place terms will be generous on this race, with every major bookie going 6-places 5th odds-a-place, and Skybet going 7-places. We could see a couple more bookies going 7-places on the morning of the race, so be sure to check. </div><div style="text-align: left;">The 9yo <b>Galvin</b> is set 11st 11lb, and is a horse with abundant stamina. If you compare his performance when 4th in the 2022 Gold Cup with Noble Yeats' performance in this years Gold Cup they are about the same, yet Galvin is 20/1.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Fury Road</b> has won at 3-mile, but he looks a better horse over shorter trips and I can see him not finishing. A point to remember is that most of those who do not finish are pulled-up; any lack of stamina will be found out over this 4-mile, 2-furlong trip. </div><div style="text-align: left;">There is no lack of stamina in <b>The Big Dog</b>, but he's not the best jumper of a fence; I feel he will be caught out at some point. I think the same of <b>Capodanno</b>, who was a promising novice chaser but he's only run once in the past 12 months; he's not for me.</div><div style="text-align: left;">Last year, <b>Delta Work</b> was 3rd with 11st 9lb and he has 5lb less to carry this year. However, despite leading to the 2nd last fence he had no more to give and he does not look to have a winning chance. </div><div style="text-align: left;">The 11yo <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Sam Brown</b> is a classy horse at his best, and soft ground and this trip will not phase him, but he can get left behind. If he stays in-touch until the 2nd circuit he could be able to figure in the finish, so the 80/1 offered by Bet365 looks interesting (66/1 elsewhere).</div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Lifetime Ambition</b> is another who looks likely to struggle to stay beyond 3-mile; the ground looks very soft on parts of the course which will find out the doubtful stayers. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Carefully Selected</b> was a top novice chaser, then was off the track for 3 years till reappearing on 27Dec. That was just a pipe-opener, as he won the renowned Thyestes Chase (h'cap) on 26Jan. A poor run LTO, as he probably "bounced", he has top claimer Michael O'Sullivan and could do well.</div><div style="text-align: left;">Last year, <b>Coko Beach</b> was in the front-rank for a long way till his stamina gave out, and with soft ground I fear the same fate again this year, even if he's held-up early on. The same applies to <b>Longhouse Poet </b>who also failed to stay last year on better ground. </div><div style="text-align: left;">We could see a decent performance from <b>Gaillard Du Mesnil</b>, if he's recovered from him recent Cheltenham win; but I fear this trip will find him out. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Darasso</b> does not look capable of staying the trip. However, <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Le Milos</b> should have no problem, and he looks to have had a perfect preparation this season, which saw him win the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury. I will be honest: he's looked my idea of the winner of this race for some time. Odds of 16/1 are available. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Escaria Ten</b> didn't stay the trip in last years National, so I have to strike through him. Whereas <b><span style="background-color: #fcff01;">The Big Breakway</span> </b>should have no problem with this trip having run 2nd in the Welsh National in December, carrying the massive weight of 11st 13lb. He could go very well in this race, and I'm surprised that he's available at 40/1.</div><div style="text-align: left;">I cannot see <b>Cape Gentleman</b> staying the trip and finishing this race. I cannot say the same about the French-trained <b>Roi Mage</b>. He has run a massive 38 times as a chaser (mainly in France), so he's unlikely to find improvement on what we've seen, but he's certain to stay the trip - however, he may do it in his own time. The same can probably be said for <b>Diol Ker</b> who has been well beaten in 3 races beyond 3m1f.</div><div style="text-align: left;">The National always has some odd runners in it, and the 7yo <b>A Wave Of The Sea</b> is such a horse: he's run in 21 chase races and never won beyond 2m4f, despite attempting 3-miles 7 (yes seven) times.</div><div style="text-align: left;">Trainer Donald McCain always has a runner (his dad Ginger McCain trained 3-time winner Red Rum), and this year his entry is <b>Minella Trump</b>: he has won on sift ground over 2m4f but he may find this trip too much for him.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Vanillier</b>, who won the Albert Bartlett hurdle over 3-mile as a novice hurdler, should be able to stay this trip, but his overall chase form looks too weak for this race. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Velvet Elvis</b> has always failed at trips beyond 3-mile when asked, and he's unlikely to figure.</div><div style="text-align: left;">Trainer de Bromhead and Rachael Blackmore combine on <b>Ain't That A Shame</b> (best odds 8/1) and it's no surprise to see this horse head the betting. A lightly race 9yo, he looks sure to stay the trip, but he can lack pace in the final stages. Should be placed, but I can't see him winning. </div><div style="text-align: left;">Recent Cheltenham Festival winner <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Corach Rambler</b> should relish this race and ground, and if he's close to the front with 2 fences to jump he will be tough to beat. My worry is that he likes to run at the back of the field early-on, and he risks being hampered. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Enjoy D'Allen </b>never went beyond the 1st fence last year, and that's not a good omen, especially as he's shown nothing in the past year to suggest he could go well in this race.</div><div style="text-align: left;">Before last year, there had not been a winning 7yo since 1940, so it's unlikely that there will be 2 in-a-row. <b>Mr Incredible</b> has abundant stamina, but he could not win a tough handicap chase at Cheltenham last month, so maybe next year for this one. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Mister Coffey </b>just plods along at his own pace, and I expect that's what he will to in this race.</div><div style="text-align: left;">Venetia Williams produced Mon Mome to win this race at 100/1, and her <b>Cloudy Glen </b>could go well if not losing touch as he seems to have lost his mid-race pace these days. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Hill Sixteen </b>has run well over this course before, but not in the National. He's been prepared for this race, but the way he ran a couple of weeks ago suggests the horse will not be in the mood. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Gabbys Cross</b> is unlikely to stay the trip as he's not won beyond 2m6f. </div><div style="text-align: left;">A late jockey booking is Jack Foley (only 3 rides in the past 2 weeks) on <b>Recite A Prayer</b>. Why connections could not find a rider earlier I don't know as this horse has stamina to burn, and he's trained by Mullins. A 3rd in the Cork National, 2nd in the Kerry National, and winner of the Killarney National, I'm surprised regular rider Danny Mullins is on Capodanno. The worry is that he does not go well off a long break, and he last ran on 27Dec when well beaten. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: #fcff01;"><b>Eva's Oskar</b> </span>has run some fine races this season, stays well and handles soft ground. Carrying 12st LTO in the 4-mile-plus "Eider" Chase found him out, and with just 10st 2lb in this, he has to be on the shortlist at odds of 80/1 with Skybet.</div><div style="text-align: left;">Trainer Sam Thomas has had a great season, and his <b>Our Power</b> has contributed to that success. But I feel he may be a tad outclassed in this race, and the soft ground may well find him out. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Dunboyne</b> is another plodder who struggles to get his head in front when it matters, he's not for me.</div><div style="text-align: left;">Trainer Peter Bower loves Aintree, but his <b>Francky Du Berlais</b> is here only to give his owners a day out as he's unlikely to stay this marathon trip.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Fortescue</b> lost his rider 4-out last year in this race when beaten, and pulled-up in the Welsh National on soft ground: I can't see him doing any better this year.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Back On The Lash</b> is too slow to figure in this race, and <b>Born By The Sea</b> is another very doubtful stayer. </div><div style="text-align: left;">My Shortlist is:-</div><div style="text-align: left;">Noble Yeats @ 12/1</div><div style="text-align: left;">Sam Brown @ 66/1</div><div style="text-align: left;">Le Milos @ 16/1</div><div style="text-align: left;">The Big Breakway @ 40/1</div><div style="text-align: left;">Corach Rambler @ 10/1</div><div style="text-align: left;">Eva's Oskar @ 80/1</div><div style="text-align: left;">Personally, I think this is a very open race, and we could see 8 or 10 runners at the 2nd-last fence holding a potential winning chance <span style="color: #2b00fe;">(and that is exactly what happened)</span>. If we do, then it's anyone's race. Regards Noble Yeats and Corach Rambler, I think they are too short in the betting in such an open & competitive race to recommend as a wager; by all means have a punt on them if you want to, but "win-only", as they both hold "win-or-bust" chances. </div><div style="text-align: left;">My "nap" is LE MILOS and I'm having £5 eachway on him @ 16/1.</div><div style="text-align: left;">I'm having £2 eachway on the other 3: Sam Brown @ 66/1; The Big Breakaway @ 40/1; and Eva's Oskar @ 80/1. That's £22 staked.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Post-race analysis: <b>spot-on with Corach Rambler</b>, on my shortlist and he won well. I did say he was a "win-only" wager. I also said Noble Yeats was a "win-only" wager, and he ran 4th. Le Milos looked like being placed at the final fence, but faded on the run-in. The Big Breakaway and Sam Brown were fallers on the 1st-circuit which was disappointing. Eva's Oskar was going well, but he jumped into the back of Delta Work (who had made a bad error and was losing his jockey) and his jockey was knocked off - very unlucky considering we know the horse stays very well, but that's the Grand National, nothing is guaranteed.</span></div>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-66701303519632853082023-04-02T17:23:00.004+01:002023-04-06T16:32:09.842+01:00Cheltenham Festival 2023 - the Review (part 3)<p>With the novice hurdle and chase championships looked at, let's move onto the graded races; and first-up is the <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Champion H</b><span style="background-color: #fcff01;"><b>urdle</b></span> over and extended 2-miles. What more can be said about <b>Constitution Hill</b>? He is an absolute monster of a horse, and just 6yo; right now anything is possible. Just how good was the performance? Well, in my opinion it was much better than that by the ill-fated 5yo winner Espoir D'Allen in 2019, and 10lb better than any other winner until you get to Hurricane Fly in 2013; so it was immense. What next for the horse? He can run-up a sequence of wins in the Champion Hurdle, and it's easy to see him winning this race another couple of times - but what would that prove? Consider trainer Nicky Henderson; he's 72yo and he's been given the horse of a lifetime - he will want to win a Gold Cup with him. I expect Henderson (with the agreement of the horse's owner) to campaign Constitution Hill in a way that could establish him as one of the very best there has been. Expect CH to go chasing next season, with a Gold Cup attempt in 2025 as an 8yo. Therefore, it's no surprise to see him heading the Arkle betting at 7/4; and I cannot see him going for the "Turners" over 2m4f. There is an outside chance he may go for an audacious attempt at the QM Champion Chase; but that's unlikely in my opinion. The runner-up in the Champion Hurdle, <b>State Man</b>, possibly isn't as good as his OR166 official rating, and I much prefer the "Ballymore" winner <b>Impaire Et Passe</b> for the 2024 Champion Hurdle, and it is no surprise that the odds of 6/1 have now gone, and the best available is now 4/1. That said, I would not ignore State Man as I expect him to remain hurdling in 2023-24 and if events don't go as expected, current odds of 7/1 could look interesting next March.</p><p>Yet again, the <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">QM Champion Chase</b> was virtually gifted to <b>Energumene</b> when his main rivals failed to show their best form. This was a better performance that last season, but not by much, and this race looks primed for a new "champion" chaser to emerge, especially as Energumene will be a 10yo next year. That is likely to be <b>El Fabiolo</b> who won the Arkle in tremendous style, and I cannot see any other horse emerging other than Constitution Hill, and (as I wrote above) I don't think that's likely.</p><p>Thursday, and the 3rd day brings us the <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Ryanair Chase</b> and of all the Grade 1 chase races, this is always he most open as the trip of 2m4f & 127yds is an odd one. This year, the hot-fav <b>Shishkin</b> never looked like he was enjoying the experience, jumped badly, and just sheer class pulled him into 2nd on the run-in. For me, Shishkin needs to prove himself again at top-level as he's only won 1 of his last 4 races and he's nowhere near hi official rating of OR173. Quite how the punters allowed <b>Envoi Allen</b> to go off at 13/2 and record his 3rd Grade 1 Cheltenham Festival win, I will never know. I did think his class would ensure a good run, but I placed a straight-forecast (advised on the blog) of Shishkin 1st, Envoi Allen 2nd - the right horses, but the wrong way around! The Exacta paid £17.70 and the CSF paid £13.47 - there was value to be had. Envoi Allen has now won 5 of his 7 chase races at about this trip, and he was the 4/9 Fav to with the "Turners" in 2021 when falling at the 4th fence. Yes, he's won a G1 over 3-miles, but (to be fair) this is his trip, and I think he had more in the tank winning this race, but didn't need it. There is 10/1 available for the 2024 Ryanair (Paddy Power), and that looks fair. In 3rd we had <b>Hitman</b> who I reckon ran a career-best, but this was the 14th chase run for the 7yo and he's never going to win a Grade 1 chase. The handicappers <b>French Dynamite</b> and <b>Ga Law</b> were firmly put in their place and shown to be not good enough, but they are consistent and give depth to the overall rating of the race. </p><p>Next on the card was the <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Stayers' Hurdle</b> over 3-miles, and what a turn-up for the book when the 11yo and multiple Festival winner <b>Sire Du Berlais</b> stayed best of all on the run-in to take this Grade 1 race. Let's be honest, we all thought going into the race that it was wide open, and that this season's form for 3-mile hurdle races was all over the place. As such, I put my faith in Flooring Porter (who was going for a hat-trick of victory's in the race) and Klassical Dream (a G1 winner and trained by Mullins), and never gave a 2nd-thought to Sire Du Berlais, which was an error as he had form in the book. He was 2nd in this race in 2021 (to Flooring Porter), and he had twice won the Pertemps (Final) h'cap hurdle over C&D; and he had beaten Flooring Porter over 3-mile at Aintree in April-2022. Unfortunately, he hadn't won since that day in 5 subsequent races and it looked like he was going downhill with age - how wrong we were! This wasn't a top-class event, and the 10yo <b>Dashel Drasher</b> coming 2nd underlined that, as he's never really been a 160+ horse, but he is game, and he went into this on OR153 and ran to that level (in my opinion). In 3rd was the fav <b>Teahupoo</b> who had everything in his favour, yet still couldn't win; he was staying-on but the winner stayed-on better. The 8yo <b>Flooring Porter</b> ran exactly the race we expected, trying to make-all, but lack of fitness did for him in the end. Even so, it was his best run this season, and I expect if he goes onto Aintree he will be a fitter horse there and could take all the beating. <b>Home By The Lee</b> ran to the level he did in this race last season, and he's just not good enough at at Grade 1. I keep saying that horses do not suddenly find pounds of improvement, but pundits, journo's, and tipsters seem to think they do. The rest of the field were outclassed, which considering this was as bad a Stayers' Hurdle as when Lisnagar Oscar won in 2020 is not a good omen. I can see Flooring Porter coming back again next season as a 9yo and having a decent chance, but Teahupoo needs soft ground and that's not guaranteed. What I find amazing is that odds of 25/1 are available on Flooring Porter for the 2024 Stayers' Hurdle, and if he runs well (likely) at Aintree, then he's right back in the picture for next season. Remember, both Inglis Drever and Big Bucks won as 9yo's recording their 3rd and 4th wins in the race, and while Flooring Porter isn't as good as that pair, I don't think he needs to be considering the level of opposition. </p><p>I've already reviewed the Gold Cup result in depth on 24th March, so let's consider a Fantasy Festival Yankee for 2024. Had I reviewed the Festival a bit quicker, I would have immediately pencilled in <b>Impaire Et Passe</b> for the Champion Hurdle, but the early 6/1 has gone and the best now available is 4/1 which isn't good value, but still interesting. I'm much more confident in <b>El Fabiolo</b> in the QM Champion Chase, as I think he's a better horse than Energumene, and thoughts of Constitution Hill going for this race as a novice chaser are fanciful. Best odds available are 7/2 (Coral) on El Fabiolo in the QMCC and he's in the Yankee. As I've written above, for the Ryanair Chase the odds of 10/1 available on this years' winner <b>Envoi Allen</b> look very decent, and he goes into my Yankee. Finally, I'm taking those huge odds available on <b>Flooring Porter</b> for the Stayers' Hurdle. </p><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b>FANTASY YANKEE: (placed with BetVictor) Sunday 2nd April 2023</b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b>Champion Hurdle: IMPAIRE ET PASSE @ 4/1</b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b>QMCC: EL FABIOLO @ 3/1</b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b>Ryanair Chase: ENVOI ALLEN @ 10/1</b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b>Stayers' Hurdle: FLOORING PORTER @ 25/1</b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">Two winners guarantees a profit.</div>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-51224973606004657492023-03-30T19:51:00.004+01:002023-03-30T19:51:50.574+01:00Cheltenham Festival 2023 - the review (part 2)<p>Continuing my review of the recent Cheltenham Festival, I will look at the remainder of the novice races, then the "graded" races, and finally scan the handicaps. </p><p>This years <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">National Hunt (NH) Chase</b> over 3m6f was disappointing for me, as I had advised <b>Mahler Mission</b> as an eachway antepost wager at 9/1 and he looked to be romping away with the race when falling 2-out. There's a chance he could have been caught, but more "judges" than me reckon he wouldn't - we will never know for sure, although the results of his next few races should indicate whether he had the stamina to stay on or not. Certainly, the eventual 2nd <b>Chemical Energy</b> ran out of steam on the run-in, having been given a sympathetic ride by JJ Codd. The winner, <b>Gaillard Du Mesnil</b> stayed-on well but he'd been under a hard-drive from 4-out and I don't think he ran much better than when 3rd in the "Broadway" Novices Chase in 2022 to L'Homme Presse. As such, I can't see him making much of an impression in Grade 1 chases over 3-mile next season. I'm going to give <b>Mahler Mission</b> a provisional rating of 158 for this run, and assume he could have won by 3-lengths. What we have to note is the result of his previous race when 2nd beaten under a length by <b>Churchstonewarrior</b> as that one goes next for the Irish National and looks well-handicapped on OR147 should he run. Also make a note of the 3rd, <b>Flanking Maneuver</b> as that was his debut chase off a 2-year break and he was only btn just over a length. He surely "bounced" NTO, and that drop in trip to 2m4f probably didn't suit either; but he's worth keeping an eye on.</p><p>The final nail in my antepost portfolio came in the <b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Brown Advisory (Broadway) Novices' Chase</b> over 3-mile, when antepost wager <b>Gerri Colombe </b>just failed by a short-head to catch <b>The Real Whacker</b>. I had an interest in two horses in this race, the other being <b>Thyme Hill</b> who was disappointing (trainer reported he lost his jumping confidence). Connections of <b>The Real Whacker</b> had considered a Gold Cup entry after he'd won the "Dipper" Chase on 1st Jan, and he'd surely have been well outclassed in that race; but he was placed well in this given an enterprising ride by his jockey. He looks to be an adaptable horse who could return here next year with either the Ryanair or the Gold Cup as his target - if he were mine, I'd be looking at the former (as Albertas Run did when twice winning the Ryanair after taking the "Broadway"). As for <b>Gerri Colombe</b>, he looks destined for the top-table over 3-miles in Grade 1 races, as he probably should have won this race - although he did lack pace coming down the hill and was under a hard-drive for a long way. He looks a horse who will appreciate the 3m2f of the Gold Cup, but maybe 3-mile may be too sharp for him. The big surprise of the race was <b>Bronn</b>, just a 6yo and at the longest odds (50/1) of the 5 (yes, five) Willie Mullins runners. The horse never missed a beat, and it was only 150 yards from the line that he faltered. I will be surprised if he runs again this season as this was a tough race for him, and as he's been given a rating of just OR150 he could pick up a valuable handicap chase in the autumn. Unfortunately for <b>Sir Gerhard</b> the 3-mile trip found him out. He was very "raw" with his jumping, and his ability and brute strength took him into a challenging position before 2-out, just before his stamina gave-out. He's entered for the 2m4f Grade 1 Novices Chase as Fairyhouse on 09April, and he could be very interesting if lining-up for that race. If not, he could be a Ryanair Chase horse next season, but he does need to improve his jumping.</p>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-90841210857165081642023-03-26T20:29:00.006+01:002023-03-28T10:25:20.917+01:00Cheltenham Festival 2023 - the Review (part 1)<p>When looking back over the results of the Cheltenham Festival, one of the things I like to do is see which trends were highlighted in the days beforehand, which ones came right and which ones fell flat. From my own perspective, I like LTO winners and horses that have run since Christmas Day; more than 84 days off the track (12 weeks) is usually enough to scupper the chances of nearly every horse. However, that trend came unstuck in the opening race. I'm not going to look at every race in this review, for two reasons (1) it will take me about 4 weeks to do a proper review that I'd be proud of; and (2) there is an excellent race-by-race review of the Festival that has been written by Paul Ferguson of Weatherby's. </p><p>The <span style="background-color: #fcff01;"><b>Supreme Novices' Hurdle</b></span> was won in some style by <b>Marine Nationale</b>, sent into the race by owner-trainer Barry Connell, and this horse had not run since winning at Fairyhouse on 04Dec, but he was a LTO winner. I actually thought the horse would be more suited to the Ballymore Hurdle over 2m5f, but the Supreme was perfect. He looks like there's still more improvement in him and he could easily be a 160+ hurdler. I reckon this was as good a performance as that put in by Shiskin when he won this race in 2020. The Mullins-trained <b>Facile Vega</b>, have flopped badly LTO when 4th, and was put in his place behind the winner. He probably needs to step-up in trip now if remaining a hurdler - and he should have no problem staying 2m4f; but I expect this horse to be a novice chaser next season with the "Arkle" being his target. The surprise of the race for me was <b>Diverge</b> in 3rd. Also trained by Mullins, this gelding was sired by Frankel and (given he pulled so much in the early part of the race) he finished really strong - he could improve a lot on this, and looks exciting for next season. Both <b>Inthepocket</b> and <b>Il Etait Temps </b>look horses that need 2m4f, and they will likely go chasing next season.</p><p>The <span style="background-color: #fcff01;"><b>Arkle Novices' Chase</b></span> was the highlight of the Festival for me, as my antepost selection <b>El Fabiolo </b>came good (as expected) and won in devastating fashion. This is a tricky race to rate, as are all races when the winner spreadeagles the opposition. If we assume <b>Jonbon</b> was considered by Nicky Henderson to be capable of winning an Arkle, then he's likely to have run to 160, which is about the minimum level of performance required, but most Arkle winners run to 160+. At 160 for Jonbon, that puts El Fabiolo at 167, and that makes his performance one of the best in the Arkle for some time - and this does have the look of being a vintage Arkle. <b>El Fabiolo </b>will have no problem staying 2m4f judging by his breeding, and Willie Mullins has a problem many would love to have looking forward to the 2024 QM Champion Chase, as he also trains Energumene. I'm not sure where <b>Jonbon</b> goes now, as he looks outclassed at the top-table of 2-mile chase races, but would still be the best we have at the trip this side of the Irish Sea. He's good, but he doesn't look as good as his half-bro' Douvan who won the Arkle, and I can't see him enjoying a step-up in trip and an attempt at the Ryanair Chase suiting. The 3rd past the post <b>Saint Roi</b> is another who will be tough to place next season, as he's handicapped to the hilt, and just not good enough to race at Grade 1 level in 2-mile chases. <b>Dysart Dynamo </b>is a horse who we could see back over hurdles next season; he possesses bags of pace, but his jumping is more hopeful than skilful and his riders just hang-on in hope. </p><p>From the initial couple of races, the winners both look a bit special. With Marine Nationale, his future is largely dependent on what Constitution Hill does, as if CH remains as a hurdler (he could go chasing) then <b>Marine Nationale</b> looks a potential Champion Hurdler in the making, but the best odds available (10/1 with Boylesport) are not attractive. Regards <b>El Fabiolo</b>, he doesn't need another horse to step aside as I expect him to be a better 2-mile chaser than his stable companion <b>Energumene</b> this time next year. As such, the best available odds about him for the QM Champion Chase of 7/2 (Corals) and 100/30 (Bet365) are interesting for multiple wagers. To compare the novices, hurdle and chase, I'm going to abandon tradition and jump to Day-2 and the Ballymore Hurdle, and to Day-3 and the "Turners" Novices' Chase.</p><p>The <span style="background-color: #fcff01;"><b>Ballymore Novices' Hurdle</b></span> was a very strong race on paper, and only the 9/4 fav <b>Hermes Allen</b> failed to shine, but (as I wrote on my blog several times) I didn't think he would; he will be a better chaser. The race was dominated by Mullins-trained horses, with 3 of his 4 runners filling the 1st-3 places. The winner <b>Impaire Et Passe </b>is easily the best novice hurdler he has, and when you realise that he is only a 5yo and that this was just his 3rd hurdle race, then what a future he must have! As I held odds of 10/1 on "Impaire" for the Supreme, I'm a bit gutted that he didn't go for that race - and I also had odds of 25/1 on Supreme winner Marine Nationale - right horses, wrong races. With time on his side, <b>Impaire Et Passe </b>is more certain of having a hurdling campaign next season, and odds of 6/1 for the 2024 Champion Hurdle (offered by Bet365 & Coral) look very fair. Considering he is a better horse than State Man, if Constitution Hill goes chasing then "Impaire" <u>could easily start the Champion Hurdle fav</u> next year. The runner-up <b>Gaelic Warrior</b> is also a 5yo, and with Mullins thinking he could stay 3-mile, perhaps a try at the Stayers Hurdle before going chasing is possible; he's generally 20/1.</p><p>What looked like being one of the races of the Festival, and yet again going to an Irish-trained winner, instead drew Paul Nicholls to the winners enclosure. The <span style="background-color: #fcff01;"><b>Turners Novices' Chase</b></span> could possibly have been run at a stronger pace, and the eventual winner <b>Stage Star</b> was able to dictate from the front. Given he was proven over C&D, this was a tactical error by rival jockeys; and when the winner struck for home they had no chance of catching him. My immediate thoughts post-race, was that <b>Stage Star </b>was Nicholls "Gold Cup" horse for 2024, and there is plenty of stamina in his pedigree. The odds of 25/1 (Paddy Power) look very generous considering Bravemansgame is unlikely to better this years' performance (when 2nd in the GC), and promising novice Gerri Colombe needs soft ground. The surprise of the race was <b>Notlongtillmay</b> who came into this race on OR142, and ran a cracker. I expect this horse to stay ahead of the handicapper, and I reckon he could win a couple of 3-mile chases in the autumn. Unfortunately, <b>Mighty Potter</b> was exposed here, this is as good as he gets over this trip, and as he was staying on (under a hard drive) he may also may need to step-up to 3-miles.</p><div style="text-align: left;">What do we have from these novice races going forward? </div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Marine Nationale</b> could probably be best-placed going chasing next season, in which case the "Arkle" would be the most likely target; however, the early odds of 5/1 being offered are not generous.</div><div style="text-align: left;">As <b>Impaire Et Passe </b>is more certain of hurdling next season, current odds of 6/1 for the 2024 Champion Hurdle (offered by Bet365 & Coral) look very fair, and probably should be taken.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>El Fabiolo</b> looks to be a better 2-mile chaser than his stable companion <b>Energumene</b>. As such, the best available odds about him for the QM Champion Chase of 7/2 (Corals) and 100/30 (Bet365) are interesting for multiple wagers.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Stage Star</b>? While, he looks an interesting horse for 2023-24, and I can see him running in the Gold Cup next March, he will need fortune on his side to figure in the finish of that race. </div>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-39773718493951325172023-03-24T14:47:00.005+00:002023-03-31T20:44:30.883+01:00Cheltenham Festival 2023 - the review (and what went wrong)<div style="text-align: left;">That's it for another year, and when it's over the preparation begins for the next one. My own performance can only be measured as profit or loss; and let's be realistic, with just the one winner (El Fabiolo) it wasn't vintage. I've thought that perha<span style="font-family: inherit;">ps I spread my assessments of the horses & races too thin, tried to hit too many targets when I should have been more specific. I tell readers of the blog to pick &choose their targets - and then I didn't follow my own advice! We live and learn.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I'm not sure how this review is going to pan-out. I generally look at each race in-turn, and try and spot horse's to look out for in the coming weeks and months. And then I usually have a wrap-up and try and identify any potential wagers for 2024. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">This is my fantasy Yankee posted on 27-March 2022 <span style="color: #222222;">for the 2023 Cheltenham Festival (odds from Paddy Power):-</span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Champion Hurdle: CONSTITUTION HILL @ 2/1</span></b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><b><span style="font-family: inherit;">QMCC: ENERGUMENE (as I expect Shishkin to step-up in trip to 3-miles) @ 7/2</span></b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Stayers' Hurdle: FLOORING PORTER @ 5/1</span></b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Gold Cup: A PLUS TARD @ 4/1 </span></b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Not too bad; 2 winners from 4 selections, the successful double returning £135 to a £10 stake, that's £25 profit on the original 11 bets in the Yankee. Not only that, but I predicted Shishkin stepping-up in trip. I hope I can repeat this success at the end of this review when I post a "Yankee" for 2024.</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Before I go any further and review the Festival race-by-race, let's have a brief look at the Gold Cup won by Galopin Des Champs. First, let us compare the ratings: RPR, Speed, Timeform, and My Rating with previous Gold Cups.</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEihc1asjQQ4DeZOoQhCu6zm_4aOTxfROfv9HwQQEcMDabEbR0u4PPNU6SQAl_9U7E40AEjWmggYRokQ7axOPhc9CAtm--ahNTfJdvp0p58DSJT4qNiqIaLVRCq5xAp112K4nOptSXZkbjltr66V36tD9srO9d7X-XblHa8ofBAmZPxxkJdZpO9cpirz" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="438" data-original-width="728" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEihc1asjQQ4DeZOoQhCu6zm_4aOTxfROfv9HwQQEcMDabEbR0u4PPNU6SQAl_9U7E40AEjWmggYRokQ7axOPhc9CAtm--ahNTfJdvp0p58DSJT4qNiqIaLVRCq5xAp112K4nOptSXZkbjltr66V36tD9srO9d7X-XblHa8ofBAmZPxxkJdZpO9cpirz=w483-h290" width="483" /></a></div><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Most judges rate the performance by </span><b style="font-family: inherit;">Don Cossack</b><span style="font-family: inherit;"> when winning in 2016 to be the best since Foot & Mouth disease caused the cancellation of the Festival in 2001. From my "composite" rating detailed above, Don Cossack isn't the best, he's not even in the top-5 best winners since 2006. I haven't gone earlier than 2007, as before that I wasn't keeping my own ratings.</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Despite the above table putting <b>Imperial Commander</b>'s winning performance in 2010 as the best recent run in the Gold Cup; personally, I have <b>Denman</b> as the best staying chaser we've seen since "foot & mouth" in 2001, as Denman met, <u>and beat</u>, a peak <b>Kauto Star</b> (who when on to win the Gold Cup again in 2009). I'm fairly sure that had he not had his health issue's, Denman would easily have beaten Kauto Star in 2009. Why is that? </span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Gold Cup is an interesting trip, being a quarter-mile longer than a "standard" 3-miles, and having that final quarter-mile running up that hill (thank you Kate Bush). I believe the best trip for Kauto Star was the 3-miles of Kempton, and beyond that trip Denman was definitely superior. Or rather, "Kauto" could not achieve a performance in a Gold Cup within 5lbs of his best (which he ran at Kempton). However, Kauto Star was such a high-class chaser, he didn't need to perform to his best to win a couple of Gold Cups! I'm sure Denman would have won the Gold Cup again in 2009, as that autumn he perhaps put in what I rate as the best performance of his life - and possibly the best staying chase performance seen since the days of <b>Desert Orchid</b> - when winning the Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury over 3m2f in November 2009, which I rated 184. When Kauto Star won the "King George" over 3-miles, he put in an amazing performance too, possibly equal to 184 - but he was so far in front of the horse in 2nd it's just a guess how good he was that day.</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">So what of <b>Galopin Des Champs</b>? As per the identical speed ratings (171), I don't think there's that much between this winning performance and that of <b>A Plus Tard</b> last year. While speed ratings are not the be-all-and-end-all, they are an important consideration, as they give resonance to the overall rating. Let's be honest here: ratings are subjective to opinion, that's why there's disparity in the table above. Even speed ratings have some interpretative factor within them, due to the effect of the ground on the race-time; but there's more of a calculation behind them. What is interesting from the table above, is that Galopin's speed rating of 171 has been matched or beaten by 5 winners since the surprise victory of <b>Lord Windermere</b> in 2014. The highest speed rating in that period (176) was by <b>Al Boum Photo</b> in 2019, and he went on to win the Gold Cup a 2nd time in 2020. I tipped Al Boum Photo to win that 2nd Gold Cup (I didn't think he was good enough in 2019) mainly due to that high speed rating, which was the highest recorded in the race since <b>Imperial Commander</b> in 2010. There's no doubt in my mind that a fit and healthy Galopin Des Champs can win the Gold Cup again in 2024, but before you go out and put the mortgage on a 6/4, I would have said the same thing about <b>A Plus Tard</b> last year. In my opinion, the only chink in the armour of GDC is that a bold, prominent effort by a horse like Coneygree or Native River - who are considered more than 5lb below GDC - could give him a scare over the Gold Cup trip. And, there's always the possibility that he may not reach the starting line next year: injury is always a risk.</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If we look at the above table in rank order, we see what look to me are anomalies.</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg1zgI4ITXEVSpfO98SoFrLj9P6mGjaaIc_pfOaKYlvN-4ecV0AwQvL9-39f5ZsQeGf8p0cmPC-BI5Ni5uObEnmTsb4zGgNWSL77aerPSalDWYRgsxTi3BkQEDPy4m9qa88Wmh3uanwQBdo1l5I0TcJftqZGD1pIWZ_Z8WicYq0hklbzlwyNNvHal2A" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="427" data-original-width="732" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg1zgI4ITXEVSpfO98SoFrLj9P6mGjaaIc_pfOaKYlvN-4ecV0AwQvL9-39f5ZsQeGf8p0cmPC-BI5Ni5uObEnmTsb4zGgNWSL77aerPSalDWYRgsxTi3BkQEDPy4m9qa88Wmh3uanwQBdo1l5I0TcJftqZGD1pIWZ_Z8WicYq0hklbzlwyNNvHal2A=w515-h301" width="515" /></a></div><br />The Timeform values in orange are (in my opinion) undervalues; and those in blue are overvalues.</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Long Run won his Gold Cup when all his serious rivals - however good they may once have been - were all in serious decline, and that he never repeated that GC win - despite remaining a top grade 1 horse - suggests in 2011 he "got lucky", and he certainly didn't put in a better performance that day than when Denman won in 2008 beating a peak Kauto Star! The same with Bobs Worth; how can he possibly have run to 176 when he won, but he couldn't beat Lord Windermere the following year when that horse recorded just 161? One horse who I think had been underrated significantly, is Coneygre - he put in a phenomenal performance when winning the GC in 2015 as a novice chaser.</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><br /></div></div>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-34524789694190728602023-03-17T08:14:00.001+00:002023-03-17T08:14:11.165+00:00Cheltenham Festival 2023 - Day 4 (Friday)<p>What can I say? Yesterday was a day for the bookies, with none of the fav's winning. For the blog it started badly when <b>Mighty Potter</b> struggled to pick-up the pace over the final couple of fences in the opening race; he ran to his best, but that wasn't good enough. The Pertemps hurdle was a blanket finish, and the selection <b>The Changing Man</b> stayed on but just missed out on a place. Like many, I thought <b>Shishkin</b> was unbeatable in the Ryanair, but he wasn't placed well by his jockey, and his jumping suffered. Fair play to Envoi Allen, he's won the Bumper, the Ballymore, and now the Ryanair Chase. The final nail in my Festival coffin was Sire Du Berlais winning the Stayers' hurdle at 33/1 at the age of 11. <b>Flooring Porter</b> ran a brave ace, but he's 10lb below his best; and <b>Klassical Dream</b> just didn't want to race: very disappointing. Any hope of a confidence boost was snuffed out when <b>Fugitif</b> was beaten into 2nd on the run-in of the Plate having looked the winner jumping the last fence. I wasn't interested in the Mares race, and then in the Kim Muir, the selection <b>Ballykeel</b> was given every chance but just wasn't good enough.</p><p>Just the one winner - El Fabiolo in the Arkle - posted this week, it has been disappointing.</p><div style="text-align: left;"><b>1:30pm Triumph Hurdle over 2-miles</b></div><div style="text-align: left;">Unbelievably, Willie Mullins trains the top-4 in the betting: Lossiemouth, Blood Destiny, Gala Marceau, and Zenta. With the stable jockey Townend on Lossiemouth, that's the fav and probably the most likely winner. A no bet race for me.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>2:10pm County handicap Hurdle over 2-miles</b></div><div style="text-align: left;">Very competitive race, and one won by Mullins 6 times. He has 4 entries, including the well fancied Hunters Yarn but this looks a big ask for the 6yo who is very lightly race. The one I like is <b>Winter Fog</b> who loves these big-field handicaps, ran 4th in the Pertemps Final last year, joined Willie Mullins in December and immediately won a h'cap hurdle over 2-miles. Gordon Elliott has 2 runners, and his <b>Pied Piper </b>is a decent hurdler but OR154 looks a tough mark to win from. Gavin Cromwell has just <b>Path D'Oroux</b> and this one looked destined for the "Supreme" when winning his debut hurdle in October, as he was then sent for a couple of Grade 1's. Not quite than level, he won LTO when dropped in grade and his OR141 mark looks fair. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>2:50pm Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle over 3-miles</b></div><div style="text-align: left;">When you look at the odds of past winners, probably the first horse to strike off the list is the fav. You can make a case for more than a few in this, so let's just try with one: Gordon Elliott's <b>Favori De Champdou</b>. Yes, he's an 8yo but he's had very little racing and he looked decent when winning a Grade-2 at Xmas. Elliott knows his hurdlers, especially at 3-miles, and while he also has <b>Three Card Brag</b> in this race, that horse needs to prove his stamina today. </div><div style="text-align: left;">For me, <b>Favori De Champdou </b>looks to hold a fair chance in this race.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>3:30 Cheltenham Gold Cup over 3 miles & 2 furlongs & 70yards</b></div><div style="text-align: left;">This time last year, I posted up A Plus Tard to win the Gold Cup, and he duly did capping a great week. He's not had the best of time in the past year, running only once and being pulled-up, but he did look outstanding last year, and nothing has come close to that level in the intervening period. What's more, trainer Henry de Bromhead is in great form and there's no reason to doubt that if <b>A Plus Tard</b> is here, then he's in good form too. The talking horse is the short-priced fav, <b>Galopin Des Champs</b> who fell at the final fence here last year when looking likely to easily win the "Turners" over 2m4f. He's won 3 races since then, proven he stays 3-miles LTO, and looks the one to beat. <b>Bravemansgame</b> has done nothing wrong this season, and in many a year he would be the fav today after winning the King George at Kempton in good style LTO. With Paul Nicholls having his horses running well this week, he looks the value in the betting market as, when you look at the remainder of the runners, there is nothing much else in the race that you can consider to be a potential winner. Noble Yeats may sneak 3rd, but he really should not be winning this race.</div><div style="text-align: left;">I already have an antepost wager on <b>Protektorat</b>, but that looks a poor wager now, and if I had to have a wager it would be an eachway punt on <b>Bravemansgame</b>, but I expect the fav <b>Galopin Des Champs</b> to win, and hope <b>A Plus Tard</b> runs a gallant race.</div><div style="text-align: left;">That's it from me for today, and I will review the results over the coming couple of weeks in more depth. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-59514132485504335952023-03-16T08:44:00.000+00:002023-03-16T08:44:05.684+00:00Cheltenham Festival 2023 - Day 3 (Thursday) <p>Not a great day yesterday. I had an antepost wager on Impaire Et Passe at 10/1, but it was in the "Supreme" hurdle and not the "Ballymore"; just as I had an antepost wager on the Supreme winner Marine Nationale at 25/1, but it was in the Ballymore - right horses, wrong races! Hats off to The Real Whacker winning the "Broadway" chase from the front, but in doing so he beat Gerri Colombe into 2nd (he probably should have been in the NH Chase over 3m6f); while my antepost on Thyme Hill was well off target. In the Coral Cup h'cap hurdle, Fil Dor didn't enjoy the experience at all and dropped-out mid-race. Like a lot of people, I was sucked into the Edwardstone camp for the QMCC, but the writing was on the wall early, and Energumene has now won this prestigious race twice without having a decent blow. I made no selection in the Grand Annual, but Thyme White (on my shortlist) was going well when falling 2-out. </p><p><b>So, we go into the third day with Mighty Potter needing to win the "Turners" to complete a £10 win double with Arkle winner El Fabiolo.</b></p><div style="text-align: left;"><b>1:30pm Turners Novice Chase over 2m4f</b></div><div style="text-align: left;">Based on the form this season, <b>Mighty Potter</b> looks much the best horse in this line-up. The only chink in his form is his failure to complete in the Supreme Hurdle last season. His rivals today don't look good enough to beat him unless Mighty Potter underperforms. The British-trained <b>Balco Coastal</b> (Henderson) and <b>Stage Star</b> (Nicholls) may be the ones to give the fav most trouble. Stage Star ran a tremendous race here on Trials Day in January, but before that you would not have considered him capable of winning this race, and I think he needs to find another 10lb of improvement. I like Balco Coastal, as he won a decent handicap at Kempton on his 2nd chase race, and was just outstayed by Gerri Colombe LTO, and that form looks strong. He would be my eachway selection at 12/1. The Irish trained <b>Appreciate It</b> and <b>Banbridge</b> both don't look good enough. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>2:10pm Pertemps Final handicap hurdle over 3-miles</b></div><div style="text-align: left;">What a cracking race this is, and we found the winner at 25/1 last year. It takes an exception horse to win this race with more than 11st to carry, but this years' race looks weaker than usual, so we may get a strong show from <b>Walking On Air </b>on 11:5 who was a late qualifier winning LTO in Feb. However, my money is on The Changing Man a 6yo who is improving with every run, travels strong and stays 3-mile well, and he's won on soft ground - he's 25/1 with Bet365, and 22's elsewhere (6-places, 5th odds).</div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Selection: THE CHANGING MAN - £5 eachway @ 25/1 (6-places, 5th odds a place)</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>2:50pm Ryanair Chase over 2m5f</b></div><div style="text-align: left;">This should be a shoo-in for <b>Shishkin</b>, as he is easily the best of these. Shishkin is probably the the equal of Energumene even now after his health problems, and I cannot see anything coming close. All my antepost doubles etc involving the horse have gone down (although I did post on 31Dec that readers should include him in doubles & trebles as he was available at odds of 8/1 for the Ryanair Chase) so, what can follow him home? I think it will be <b>Fury Road </b>and<b> Envoi Allen</b> who will battle it out for 2nd & 3rd; and I shall have a couple of straight-forecasts with Shishkin to win and that pair to be 2nd. Both stay the trip and more, but this trip is probably their best; and both have run well at the Festival in previous years.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>3:30pm Stayers' Hurdle over 3-miles</b></div><div style="text-align: left;">This years race is a tricky affair. Most of the trials during the season have been indifferent races, always excuses for one horse or another. <b>Flooring Porter</b> has won this race for the past couple of years, and readers of the blog know that - we've been on him both times! However, in the run-up to winning those races he'd posted performances at around 160 (he's rated OR164), and this season he's run a couple of poor efforts below 150. If Gavin Cromwell has brought him here in top-form, he will prove tough to beat. <b>Teahupoo </b>has his ground, and showed when winning the Hatton's Grace (Honeysuckle was 3rd) that he's a high-class 3-miler. Come the race, the weather forecast is heavy rain this afternoon, which is reminiscent of when <b>Klassical Dream</b> won the Supreme in 2019, so he should cope today, and he goes well off a long break. If there's one trainer who can bring a horse to win a race like this off a long break, it's Mullins, so I'm very interested in this one at odds of 9/1 (with Bet365, 4-places 5th odds). I've already advised an eachway antepost wager on French-trained <b>Gold Tweet</b>, and I won't put anyone off having and eachway punt on him at 11/1 (Bet365), although I cannot see him winning today. I don't think <b>Blazing Khal</b> is good enough on form to be the 2nd-fav, and <b>Home By The Lee</b> found nothing when asked in this race last year. For me, the winner is one of Flooring Porter, Teahupoo and Klassical Dream, and though it pains me to do it, at the odds and based on this season's form, I'm advising an eachway wager on <b>Klassical Dream</b> to be the recipient of some Mullins magic, with a "saver" on Flooring Porter, just in case.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Selection: KLASSICAL DREAM - £5 eachway @ 9/1 (Bet365, 4-places, 5th odds)</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>plus: FLOORING PORTER - £3 win @ 11/2 (available generally)</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>4:10pm Plate handicap chase 2m4f & 127yds</b></div><div style="text-align: left;">This looks a difficult race to fathom, especially as the weather looks awful this afternoon, heavy rain. This can go to a rank outsider, but the winner is usually well supported in the market. I was very impressed by both Il Ridoto and Fugitif when they battled-out the finish over C&D on Trials Day here in January, and of the pair I think <b>Fugitif</b> looks primed to run well in this race and odds of 10/1 (Bet365, 6-places, 5th odds) look fair; but I can't recommend a wager in what looks a competitive race. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">I'm going to give the Mares hurdle a miss, and go straight to the:</div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>5:30pm Kim Muir (amateur riders) h'cap chase over 3m2f</b></div><div style="text-align: left;">Jockeyship is very important in this race, and any horse ridden by JJ Codd (who has won this 4 times) has to be considered. As such, <b>Duboyne </b>trained by Gordon Elliott and recently 2nd in the Thyestes Chase in Ireland is one to note. Also note <b>Angels Dawn</b> who was fav for the Grand National Trial in Ireland LTO but unseated his rider mid-race when going well. Different jockey today, and he can go well in this race. I also like the other Elliott-trained runner, <b>Ballykeel</b> who has been aimed at this race for some time. He has a decent jockey on board as Mr Swan has won 10 races for Elliott and odds of 25/1 (6-places, 5th odds) or 33/1 (PaddyPower, 5-places, 5th odds) look fair. There will not be many finish this race I reckon, and I'm happy to take the 33/1, for a small wager.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Selection: BALLYKEEL - £5 eachway @ 33/1 (PaddyPower, 5-places, 5th odds)</b></div>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-83332413765992781292023-03-15T08:23:00.004+00:002023-03-15T08:23:37.980+00:00Cheltenham Festival 2023 - Day 2 (Wednesday)<div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">How did we do on the opening day?</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">In the Supreme Hurdle, the selection <b>Il Etait Temps</b> lacked mid-race pace, and looked a horse that probably should have run in the Ballymore over 2m4f - but he may not even have been good enough for that. Readers of the blog were in clover after the Arkle Novices Chase when <b>El Fabiolo</b> - advised at 11/2 in January - romped home a good winner. We were brought back down to earth in the Ultima Handicap, with main selection <b>The Big Breakaway </b>running no sort of race, and <b>Tea Clipper</b> running 6th, just out of the places. There was 40/1 available on Tea Clipper and upto 8-places available with some bookies. In the Champion Hurdle, there was no stopping Constitution Hill, who looks the best since Istabraq. The speculative ew wager on <b>I Like To Move It</b> didn't come off as he tried to make-all - what on earth was Sam Twiston-Davies thinking? The Mares' Hurdle turned out to be one of the races of the day with Honeysuckle rekindling her best form - it's been a year of triumph and tragedy for Trainer de Bromhead. I didn't think she'd do it, so glad I passed on that race. There was no selection advised in the Junvenile Handicap hurdle. Onto the last race of the day, the NH Chase, and what can I say? The selection <b>Mahler Mission</b> looked home & hosed 3-out, but it soon became clear that he was fading will little left in the tank as he approached the 2nd-last fence, where he duly fell. The amateur jky just pushed-on too early trying to make ground as they went up the hill (spectacular jump at the top of the hill), and that was a schoolboy error. I'm not sure if he'd have held off Gaillard Du Mesnil on the run-in, but it would have been close.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><b>We need Mighty Potter to win the "Turners" on Thursday and complete the double started by El Fabiolo to recoup this days losses.</b></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Onto Wednesday, and I've already reviewed the main runners in the races over the past couple of weeks, so I won't repeat those notes here; but they are available if you scroll back through the blog entries.</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><b>Remember: there will be NO Selections posted on this blog at odds of under 9/4. </b></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><b style="color: #222222;">If I think the fav will be the most </b><span style="color: #222222;"><b>likely</b></span><b style="color: #222222;"> winner, and it's odds are under 9/4, I will say so, but I will not use that race as a measure of success when assessing results at the end of the week.</b></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><b style="color: #222222;"><br /></b></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><b style="color: #222222;">1:30pm Ballymore Novices' Hurdle </b><span style="color: #222222;">over 2m5f</span></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="color: #222222;">A race that usually produces a top-class field, although some recent winners haven't progressed as well as expected. I had an antepost wager on the fav <b>Impaire Et Passe</b>, but in the "Supreme" and not in this race. This will be only his 3rd hurdle race, and it will be a stamina test for him. As such, I don't think he's value at odds of 7/4. I've not been convinced that <b>Hermes Allen</b> is good enough to win a race of this quality, and his position in the betting is likely due to him being a confirmed runner for some time. Now we have the declared runners, we know what Mullins is sending along with the fav, and I'm more impressed with the form of <b>Gaelic Warrior</b> than <b>Champ Kiely</b>, and the 5yo <b>Ho My Lord</b> could be anything. If push comes to shove, I'd have a wager on <b>Gaelic Warrior</b> @ 5/1; but I'm sitting this race out.</span></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="color: #222222;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="color: #222222;"><b>2:10pm Brown Advisory (Broadway) Novices Chase</b> over 3-mile</span></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="color: #222222;">This looks like being a really good race, and it could produce a future Gold Cup winner. I posted <b>Thyme Hill</b> as my antepost selection early following his win at Kempton, mainly as he ticked a lot of boxes and this was his declared target race. A fair few "stats" guru's consider the 9yo to be one to avoid, we shall have to see. This 3-mile trip[ should bring about more improvement in the fav <b>Gerri Colombe</b>, and he is a worthy fav, if a bit short at odds of 6/4. When watching the "Dipper" at Cheltenham on 01Jan, I was more impressed with <b>Thunder Rock </b>than <b>The Real Whacker</b>, and I can see the places being reversed over this 3-mile trip. If Thunder Rock repeats his LTO run behind Gerri Colombe, that should be good enough for him to be 3rd. The enigma in the race is <b>Sir Gerhard</b>: he's only had the one race over fences and that was an inadequate test, we learned nothing from it. This race has probably come too soon for him. The mare <b>Galia Des Liteaux</b> could be interesting: she was disappointing when behind Thyme Hill at Kempton, but bounced back from that LTO. She looks a good eachway wager if you are not already involved. I'm already committed to Thyme Hill, but I think the most likely winner is the fav <b>Gerri Colombe</b>. </span><b style="color: #222222;"> </b></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><b style="color: #222222;"><br /></b></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><b style="color: #222222;">2:50pm Coral Cup (handicap) Hurdle</b><span style="color: #222222;"> over 2m5f</span></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #222222;">With 26 runners and 8/1 joint-fav's, this race is a minefield for the punter. You can follow the main selections, or go a bit left-field for a small eachway wager; and that's my preferred way to go. I will be honest, I've not had the time to analyse the field for this as I would a chase handicap, as the 2m5f trip is a bit of an odd one. There's only been 3 winners of this race in the past 10 years that's carried under 11st and, as the lowest weight carried this year is 10st 11lb, carrying a big weight may not be a problem. Gordon Elliott has had a few winners of this race, and at massive odds too, and that he runs <b>Fil Dor</b> in this is interesting. Until the Dublin Festival he was a live "Arkle" candidate, but not being a good enough chaser saw him switched back to hurdles (he was 2nd in the Triumph Hurdle last year), and he duly won a Grade 3 hurdle beating multiple Grade 1 winner Sharjah in the process. He may have 12st in this race, but he's a class horse with a decent 5lb claimer in the saddle, and we know he's race-fit and in form.</span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #222222;"><b>Advised wager:</b></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #222222;"><b>FIL DOR - £5 ew @ 14/1 (Paddy Power, 6-places, 5th odds a place)</b></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="color: #222222;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="color: #222222;"><b>3:30 Queen Mother Champion Chase</b> over 2-miles</span></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #222222;">A high-class field, and the only one missing from the line-up is Shishkin (goes for the Ryanair Chase on Thursday). Readers of the blog pocketed a big win from the success in this race by <b>Energumene</b>, but he has a worthy opponent in <b>Edwardstone</b> who had the beating of him when they met LTO. Unfortunately, they beat each other LTO by ignoring the eventual winner of the race, <b>Editeur De Gite</b>. That won't be allowed to happen again, and I expect <b>Edwardstone</b> to come home the winner: but there's no value in the betting, so no advised wager from me in this race.</span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #222222;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #222222;">I'm going to ignore the <b>Cross-Country Chase at 4:10pm</b>, ass it isn't my sort of race at all. The same with the <b>Champion Bumper</b> that closes the day's racing. Instead, I shall take a look at the:-</span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #222222;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #222222;"><b>4:40pm Grand Annual (Handicap) Chase over 2-miles</b></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #222222;">This race is famous for it's gambles and it is usually run at a fierce pace. The subject of last years' gamble was <b>Andy Dufresne </b>who ran 2nd. He is well fancied this year too, but I feel he may not be able to repeat & beat that effort. The Mullins-trained <b>Dads Lad </b>has been aimed at this race since winning here over C&D in October, and my only worry is that he's been off the track since 13Nov; but Mullins is well capable of winning a race here. Another that looks to have been prepared for this race is <b>Thyme White</b> who won off a long break at Ascot in October, and looks well handicapped in this race. Overall, this looks too tricky, and I'm just clutching at straws in this race. So I'm going to pass.</span></div>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-58605632503625581912023-03-13T13:16:00.011+00:002023-03-13T16:26:05.811+00:00Cheltenham Festival 2023 - Day 1 (Tuesday)<div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span>This is what we've been waiting for - the 2023 Cheltenham Festival.</span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span>As always, some simple advice,</span><span> and the two main things to remember about the Festival are </span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span>1) that 55% of all the races are won by a last-time-out (LTO) w</span><span>inner (from a representation of about 15% of all the runners); and </span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span>2) very few races are won by horses which last ran over 84-days (12 weeks) ago - basically, before 26th December 2021. If you stick to these two factors you may miss the odd winner, but you </span><span>will avoid 95% of the losing horses!</span><span> </span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Some of the fields for the races look a bit on the small side, only 7 runners in the Champion Hurdle, but there are with some very open events presenting some wagering opportunities. Due to multiple entries, I've had a few wagers cancelled, and the impact of recent rain has resulted in a "soft ground" opening day. Just how soft the ground will be, and what (if any) affect it will have, we won't know until after the first couple of races. </div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">I've already reviewed the main runners in the races over the past couple of weeks, so i won't repeat those notes here; but they are available of you scroll back through the blog entries.</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><b>Remember: there will be NO Selections posted on this blog at odds of under 9/4. </b></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><b>Last year, I said Honeysuckle was near unbeatable in the Champion Hurdle, and I did not recommend a wager as her odds were 8/11 and she duly won. I think the same of Constitution Hill this year, but I will not be recommending a wager as his odds are long odds-on.</b></span></div></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b style="color: #222222;">1:30pm Supreme Novices Hurdle </b><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #222222;">over 2m & 87yds</span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"><span>I'm not the best judge of novice hurdlers, and this year the "supreme" has an open look about it following the odd performance - and failure - of </span><b>Facile Vega</b><span> LTO. You can either look at that run as a warning that the horse has a problem and swerve, or that you have been given an opportunity to wager on a horse that should be odds-on at odds around 5/2. </span><b>Marine Nationale</b><span> hasn't run since 04Dec; </span><b>Inthepocket</b><span> is held by my selection; <b>Tahmuras</b> does not look good enough. The lightly raced <b>High Definition</b> and <b>Diverge </b>are both capable of considerable improvement on what we've seen to date, but will they improve? </span></span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #222222;">I've recommended an antepost wager on </span><b style="color: #222222;">Il Etait Temps</b><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"> @ 9/2 (there is some 5/1 available) as his form is solid; and I'm sticking with the antepost investment.</span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><b>2:10pm </b></span><b style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Arkle Novices Chase</b><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"> over a trip 21yds short of 2-miles </span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: inherit;">This looks to be a match between <b>Jonbon </b>and <b>El Fabiolo</b>. They were very closely matched as novice hurdlers last season, and there won't be much between them in this race. It is interesting that Mullins (trainer of El Fabiolo) also has <b>Dysart Dynamo</b> and <b>Saint Roi</b> in the race, but they both have the potential to win this if they get their act together: Dysart Dynamo needs to settle, and Saint Roi needs to improve his jumping at speed. I've recommended antepost wagers on <b>El Fabiolo</b> at odds of 11/2, 9/2 and 9/4 and I'm sticking with him. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>2:50pm Ultima Handicap Chase</b> over 3m1f</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Always a competitive race run at a strong pace. Winners need to stay the trip: <span style="background-color: white;">13 of the last 15 winners had won over 3-mile or more before winning this race. The two that didn't win at 3-miles before winning this were (in 2015) The Druid's Nephew, and (in 2011) Bensalem - but both had run exceptional races in defeat at trips of 3-mile, or thereabouts. </span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;">I've already looked at this race in some depth at the weekend, and my shortlist is:-</span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"><b>The Big Breakaway</b> has stamina to burn, and with his best runs on soft ground, and being a prominent runner, this 8yo goes on the shortlist. </span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Into Overdrive</b> won the 3-mile Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day, and that was his 5th win in 6 races, and he's not stopped improving. The form of that race was franked by Sounds Russian who ran 2nd in the Cotswold Chase on Trials Day. He won't want it too soft, but he's</span></span><span style="background-color: white;"> a prominent runner, and this 8yo goes on the shortlist. </span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"><b>Tea Clipper</b> was 4th in this race last year, just beating Our Power, and they met again at Ascot over 3-miles in October when Tea Clipper was 3rd behind Our Power. They meet on 'levels' in this race, which puts Tea Clipper 9lb better-off, and I reckon Tea Clipper will easily beat Our Power in this race. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;">The novice <b>Monbeg Genius</b> has won his last 3 races and is clearly on the upgrade; guaranteed a run should he go to post, he goes on the shortlist.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Top Ville Ben </b><span style="background-color: white;">was a class horse 4 seasons ago (won the Rowland Meyrick off OR154) and ran his best race in a long time LTO when 3rd in Ireland over an inadequate 2m5f. He is the sort who could put in an eye-catching run, and goes on the shortlist despite being 11yo. </span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span><span style="background-color: white;">I'm against the fav </span></span><b>Corach Rambler</b><span style="background-color: white;"> (who </span><span style="background-color: white;">won this last year) as he's not raced since finishing 4th in the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessey) and he's not a horse that goes well fresh (he ran at Carlisle 28-days before his last run).</span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;">Previous form in this race is usually a plus, so <b>Tea Clipper</b> gets a vote as I think if the ground is too soft for him he won't run. And <b>The Big Breakaway</b> also gets a vote as he has a touch of class. There are some great offers online, with 6-places eachway available, and as one of my early wagers has been refunded (NRNB) I'm recommending placing that on <b>The Big Breakaway</b>. </span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"><b>Advice:</b></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"><b>THE BIG BREAKAWAY - £5 eachway @ 18/1 </b></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"><b>(6-places, 5th odds a place William Hill & Paddy Power)</b></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span><span style="background-color: white;"><b>3:30pm Champion Hurdle </b></span></span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #222222;">over 2m & 87yds</span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;">The feature race of the day and a disappointing 7 runners go to post as the hot-fav Constitution Hill looks near unbeatable. I would not underestimate <b>State Man</b> or <b>I Like To Move It</b>, and they are both capable of improved performances on what we've seen to date. I shall personally be having a Straight-Forecast wager on <b>Constitution Hill</b> to beat <b>I Like To move It, </b>but I can't recommend this as a wager.</span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span><span style="background-color: white;"><b>4:10pm Mares' Hurdle </b></span></span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #222222;">over 2m3f & 200yds</span></span></div><div><span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;">This race looks a cracker on paper with ex-Champion Hurdler <b>Honeysuckle</b> meeting last years' winner <b>Marie's Rock</b>, and last years' Mares' Novices winner <b>Love Envoi</b>. Throw-in another ex-Champion hurdler in <b>Epatante</b> and we have one of the races of the Festival to savour.</span></span></div><div><span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;">On form this season, you have to favour <b>Marie's Rock</b> as her win here on 1st January suggested that she's better than her OR153 rating. <b>Honeysuckle</b>, on the other hand, appears to be on retrograde this season, and I'm struggling to convince myself that she will be in the 1st-3 home. Nicky Henderson apparently planned to enter <b>Epatante</b> in the Champion Hurdle (even though he sends Constitution Hill for that race) and she looks the more likely to trouble Marie's Rock. The form of <b>Love Envoi</b>, whilst high class, is tricky to measure but I don't think she's capable of beating Marie's Rock.</span></span></div><div><span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;">Overall, I think Marie's Rock is the most likely winner of the race, however at odds of only 5/2 in such a competitive race on paper, I don't think that's a value wager.</span></span></div><div><span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"><div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span><span><b>4:50pm Juvenile Handicap Hurdle </b></span></span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #222222;">over 2m & 87yds</span></span></div><div><span><span style="font-family: inherit;">This race looks tricky. Formlines provide nothing much to go on</span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">, and trainer preparation is the key. If I were going to have a wager, it would be on something like Perseus Way who looks better than OR132, or Mr Freedom sent by another Sussex-based trainer Sheena West - who would not send a horse to the Festival unless she knew it had a chance. This is a no-bet race for me.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div><div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span><span><b>5:30pm National Hunt (NH) Novices Chase (amateur riders) </b></span></span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #222222;">over 3m 5f & 201yds</span></span></div><div><span>Just 10 runners go to post, which is more than last year (when just 6 ran) but not as many as in 2021 or the years before that. This race invariably goes to the highest (or near highest) rating, so it pays to take note of the official ratings. Highest is <b>Gaillard Du Mesnil </b>on OR155, which is about right for him when he's at his very best. He was 3rd in the "Broadway" over 3-miles last year, and I don't think he's improved for the extra year of racing - and I just don't think that's good enough to win this race. <b>Chemical Energy</b> ran a stinker LTO, so needs to recover the form of his win here in October over 3-miles. Readers of the blog are already on <b>Mahler Mission</b> and I'm happy that this horse will give us a good run, and this marathon trip should suit him well as he looks a dour stayer. I thought his run LTO more than entitled him to a place in the line-up, and I'm expecting a bold show. <b>Minella Crooner </b>was easily btn over 3-miles on 08Feb by an OR140 rated chaser, which does not auger well for him. This trip should hold no fears for <b>Mr Coffey</b>, who was 2nd in the "Kim Muir" handicap chase last year over 3m2f, but he only ran off OR137 then and I just don't think he is good enough. <b>Tenzing</b> is more interesting as he only ran once as a hurdler when winning over 3-miles. He's had 3 chases this season, and LTO was 2nd to the more experienced Mahler Mission, and he was well fancied that day. You would not have expected him to run here, but he is which suggests that there is a lot more to come than we've seen so far. </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: inherit;">I've recommended antepost wagers on <b>Mahler Mission</b></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: inherit;"> and I'm sticking with him.</span></div><div><br /></div></div></span></span></div></div>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-66108353679035877442023-03-11T11:29:00.002+00:002023-03-11T12:23:36.796+00:00The final countdown to the Cheltenham Festival - part 5<p><b style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><u>Cheltenham Festival Antepost Wagers: already advised</u></b></p><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><b>Supreme Hurdle: <span style="background-color: transparent;"> </span><span style="background-color: transparent;">IL ETAIT TEMPS - £10 win @ 9/2 (NRNB)</span></b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><b>Supreme Hurdle: Impaire Et Passe - £5 win @ 10/1 (Coral or Labrokes)</b></div><div><div><b><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="background-color: white;">Arkle: MIGHTY POTTER - £5 win @ 25/1 (Paddy Power) </span><span style="background-color: red;">LOST </span></span></b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><b>Arkle: EL FABIOLO - £5 win @ 11/2 (Bet365)</b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><b>Arkle: EL FABIOLO - £5 win @ 9/2 (William Hill, NRNB)</b></div></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><b>Ultima: TEA CLIPPER - £5 ew NRNB @ 16/1 (available generally, 5-places 5th odds)</b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><b style="text-align: justify;">Champion Hurdle: I LIKE TO MOVE IT - £5 ew @ 16/1 (NRNB) with Paddy Power & William Hill</b></div></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b>NH Chase: <span style="background-color: transparent;">MAHLER MISSION - £10 win @ 9/1 (Corals)</span></b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b>Arkle: El Fabiolo @ 9/4 </b><b>& Turners: Mighty Potter @ 3/1 : £10 win double</b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b>Ballymore Hurdle: Marine Nationale - £5 win @ 25/1 (Skybet or, Ladbrokes & Coral)</b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><div><b>Broadway Chase: Thyme Hill - £5 win @ 8/1 (Bet365 or Skybet)</b></div><div><b>Broadway Chase: Thyme Hill - £5 win @ 7/1 (William Hill, NRNB)</b></div></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b>Turners Nov Ch: MIGHTY POTTER - £10 win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power)</b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b>Stayers' Hurdle: GOLD TWEET - £5 ew @ 12/1 (NRNB)</b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><div><b>These horses are combined in 4 x £5 win trebles: £20 staked</b></div><div><b>NH Chase: Mahler Mission & Churchstonewarrior / Broadway: Gerri Colombe & Thyme Hill / </b></div><div><b>Ryanair: Shishkin (banker) </b></div><div><b>1) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Gerri Colombe @ 9/4 plus Churchstonewarrior @ 6/1</b></div><div><b>2) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Thyme Hill @ 5/1 plus Churchstonewarrior @ 6/1</b></div><div><b>3) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Gerri Colombe @ 9/4 plus Mahler Mission @ 8/1</b></div><div><b>4) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Thyme Hill @ 5/1 plus Mahler Mission @ 8/1</b></div></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b>Cheltenham Gold Cup: PROTEKTORAT - £15 win @ 9/1 (paddy Power or Skybet)</b></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><div style="color: #222222;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="color: #222222;"><b>Total Staked to Date: £140 (Note: £20 returned NRNB)</b></div><div style="color: #222222;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="color: #222222;">The 5-day declarations for the 3rd day of the Festival came out yesterday (Friday 10th) and in the "Turners" there were no real surprises. There has been some money for <b>Balco Coastal</b> who is now 11/1 (from 14's). In the Ryanair, <b>French Dynamite</b> is now available at 16/1 (NRNB) with some and he's now interesting as an ew wager for a place.</div><div style="color: #222222;"><br /></div><div style="color: #222222;">At the time of writing (Saturday morning) the Triumph Hurdle, County (h'cap) Hurdle, and Albert Bartlett hurdle have too many entries to consider the form properly, especially as the County and AB can - and have - been won by rank outsiders. Regards the <b>Gold Cup</b>, there's nothing much that I can add that your haven't already read somewhere else. </div><div style="color: #222222;">The race revolves around <b>Galopin Des Champs</b>, and if he's as good as his reputation suggests then he's unbeatable. However, the Gold Cup trip is 510yds longer than the 3-miles he won over at Leopardstown LTO, and much of that 510yds is uphill - and many a "good thing" has come unstuck on that run-in. His current best odds of 15/8 (William Hill) don't look value to me, not when last years winner A Plus Tard (who had less question-marks) went off at 3/1. </div><div style="color: #222222;">What of the others? If the ground turns soft (unlikely) then you may see <b>Bravemansgame</b> pulled-out, and if he does run, I think he has as good a chance at the the fav of winning, which make his odds of 13/2 look value. </div><div style="color: #222222;">Last years winner <b>A Plus Tard</b> cannot be ignored, despite and indifferent run at Haydock last autumn, you have to respect his trainer Henry de Bromhead who managed to prepare the 2021 Gold Cup winner <b>Minella Indo</b> to run 2nd last year - also after an indifferent season. Winning the Gold Cup takes a supreme effort, and the race can make or break a horse. For example, Minella Rocco (2nd in 2017) was never the same horse again, ditto Might Bite (2nd in 2018), and Santini (2nd in 2019). This reminds me of a the words of a respected handicapper: "the winner can have the easiest race". In 2019, Al Boum Photo won the Gold Cup, and returned the following year in 2020 to win again off just one preparatory race. As such, I fully expect <b>A Plus Tard</b> to run well up to his known ability, and if he runs within 10lb of his run last year he will take some beating. Back in January, I didn't think we'd see <b>A Plus Tard</b> run again this season, but right now I wish I'd taken the 12/1 that was available at the time, and I can see him going-off as the 5/1 2nd-fav. </div><div style="color: #222222;">The 2022 Grand National winner <b>Noble Yeats </b>is worthy of a place in the race, but just as Grand National winners Hedgehunter (2005) ran 2nd in the 2006 Gold Cup, and Mon Mome (2009) ran 3rd in the 2010 Gold Cup, and Neptune Collonges (2012) was no better than 3rd in the 2008 Gold Cup (from 4 attempts) I cannot see this horse winning next week. Yes, he will be staying-on strong in the final half-mile, but he will likely be starting his run from maybe 30-lengths behind the leader after being outpaced mid-race. I can see him being 3rd or 4th. </div><div style="color: #222222;">The 8yo <b>Stattler</b>, who won the NH Chase over 3m6f here last year, hasn't shown form that suggests he can win this race, as he needs to find 10lb on what he's shown already, and that's a big ask. I'm not saying he can't win - Lord Windermere did in 2014 and he had a similar profile - but he will need the race to fall apart (like it did in 2014), and a giant slug of luck.</div><div style="color: #222222;"><b>Conflated</b> isn't good enough, and needs a slow-run race to be in with a chance, but if it's slow run then he will have Noble Yeats, A Plus Tard, and Stattler to contend with, as well as the fav Golopin De Champs. </div><div style="color: #222222;"><b>Ahoy Senor</b> is more interesting, as the trip should suit him well. But his jumping is indifferent, and his performances are consistent but not good enough - so he needs all the better horses to run poorly to be in with a shout. But with a bit of luck he could nick 4th or even 3rd.</div><div style="color: #222222;">When Ahoy Senor won LTO, the 8yo <b>Protektorat</b> who went off the fav for that race ran an absolute stinker, and we have to wonder if he was flattered by winning the Betfair Chase when A Plus Tard pulled-up. I thought he was the real-deal in January, hence putting him up as a selection in the antepost portfolio; but he was 3rd in this last year and his trainer Dan Skelton reckons he's a stronger horse this year, so he could again run into a place. However, being realistic I cannot see him winning this. </div><div style="color: #222222;">You can make a case - if you want to - for the likes of<b> Minella Indo, Sounds Russian</b>, and <b>Hewick</b> coming in 3rd or 4th, but realistically they don't tick enough boxes in a race which invariably takes no prisoners. If there is any chink in a horse, it will be exposed, and I can see there being only 6 or 7 still in the race as they jump the 3rd-last fence, and the remainder will have thrown-in the towel and pulled-up: but which will be the seven? </div><div style="color: #222222;">At this time, I'm looking at Bravemansgame and A Plus Tard, but perhaps I'm clutching at straws.</div><div style="color: #222222;"><br /></div><div><b><u><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Ultima H'cap Chase (update)</span></u></b></div><div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: inherit;">Always a competitive race run at a strong pace. Winners need to stay the trip: <span>13 of the last 15 winners had won over 3-mile or more before winning this race. The 2015 winner The Druid's Nephew had won over 2m7f & 129yds at Huntingdon; and 2011 winner Bensalem had run 2nd to Diamond Harry (subsequent 2010 Hennessey GC winner off OR156) over 2m7f & 86yds at Newbury, and had then fallen in this race in 2010 when looking the winner, then campaigned over hurdles to protect his chase rating.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: inherit;">Those that fail the 3-mile test are: Fanion D'Estruval; Adamantly Chosen; I Am Maximus; Fastorslow; The Goffer; Tea Clipper; Nassalam; Karl Philippe</span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Happygolucky</b>, 2nd in this race in 2021, meets this criteria, but whether he retains his ability after a long injury break is taken on trust. <b>Remastered</b> also ticks the box on stamina but, on a career-high rating at 10yo, has age against him. <b>The Big Breakaway</b> has stamina to burn, and with his best runs on soft ground, and being a prominent runner, this 8yo goes on the shortlist. <b>Threeunderthrufive</b> was a selection of mine for this last year, but went for the "Broadway" instead (ran 6th of 9); his form this season has not been the same. <b>Our Power</b> is an improving 8yo, but he's running off 9lb higher than when 5th last year, and that may be too much. <b>Into Overdrive</b> won the 3-mile Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day, and that was his 5th win in 6 races, and he's not stopped improving. The form of that race was franked by Sounds Russian who ran 2nd in the Cotswold Chase on Trials Day. He won't want it too soft, but he's</span><span> a prominent runner, and this 8yo goes on the shortlist. <b>Corach Rambler</b> won this last year but he's not raced since 4th in the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessey) and he's not a horse that goes well fresh. <b>Cloudy Glen</b> will need a career-best to win this off OR145, but it's likely that he won't be far away as he ran 2nd in the Kim Muir in 2021. Another interesting candidate is <b>Farinet </b>who won the Welsh National Trial over 3-mile at Chepstow in December. The extra distance found him out here on New Years' Day but he looks on a fair mark of OR142. <b>Death Duty</b> stayed on into 6th in this race last year off OR144, which came off the back of winning the National Trial at Punchestown. He ran 2nd in that race last month and runs off OR141 in the Ultima so he has place chances. <b>Top Ville Ben </b>was a class horse 4 seasons ago (won the Rowland Meyrick off OR154) and ran his best race in a long time LTO when 3rd in Ireland over an inadequate 2m5f. He is the sort who could put in an eye-catching run, and goes on the shortlist despite being 11yo. The novice <b>Monbeg Genius</b> has won his last 3 races and is clearly on the upgrade; guaranteed a run should he go to post, he goes on the shortlist.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: inherit;">Others to note from the "non 3-mile winners":-</span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: inherit;"><b>The Goffer</b> fails the 3-mile test, but he's improving and a LTO winner trained by Gordon Elliott.</span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: inherit;"><b>Tea Clipper</b> was 4th in this race last year, just beating Our Power, and they met again at Ascot over 3-miles in October when Tea Clipper was 3rd behind Our Power. They meet on 'levels' in this race, which puts Tea Clipper 9lb better-off, and I reckon Tea Clipper will easily beat Our Power in this race. </span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: inherit;"><u>Shortlist</u></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: inherit;"><b>The Big Breakaway</b> @ 16/1 (Skybet) - I really like the chances of this one</span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><span><span><b>Into Overdrive</b> @ 8/1 - odds are too short</span></span></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><b style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: inherit;">Farinet </b><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: inherit;">@ 40/1 (available generally) at these odds you have to be on</span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><b style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: inherit;">Monbeg Genius</b><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: inherit;"> @ 14/1</span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: inherit;"><b>Tea Clipper </b>- was advised at 16's; so 20/1 with William Hill NRNB looks value</span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: inherit;"><b>Advice:</b></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: inherit;"><b>The Big Breakaway - £5 eachway @ 16/1 (NRNB 5-places 5th odds Skybet)</b></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><b><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: inherit;">Farinet - £5 eachway @ 40/1 </span><span style="color: #2b00fe;">(NRNB 5-places 5th odds Bet365)</span></b></div></div></div>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8547830833655385781.post-68033651417392557282023-03-10T17:16:00.001+00:002023-03-11T09:49:22.740+00:00The final countdown to the Cheltenham Festival - part 4<p><b style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><u>Cheltenham Festival Antepost Wagers: already advised</u></b></p><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><b>Supreme Hurdle: <span style="background-color: transparent;"> </span><span style="background-color: transparent;">IL ETAIT TEMPS - £10 win @ 9/2 (NRNB)</span></b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><b>Supreme Hurdle: Impaire Et Passe - £5 win @ 10/1 (Coral or Labrokes)</b></div><div><div><b><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="background-color: white;">Arkle: MIGHTY POTTER - £5 win @ 25/1 (Paddy Power) </span><span style="background-color: red;">LOST </span></span></b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><b>Arkle: EL FABIOLO - £5 win @ 11/2 (Bet365)</b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><b>Arkle: EL FABIOLO - £5 win @ 9/2 (William Hill, NRNB)</b></div></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><b>Ultima: TEA CLIPPER - £5 ew NRNB @ 16/1 (available generally, 5-places 5th odds)</b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><b style="text-align: justify;">Champion Hurdle: I LIKE TO MOVE IT - £5 ew @ 16/1 (NRNB) with Paddy Power & William Hill</b></div></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b>NH Chase: <span style="background-color: transparent;">MAHLER MISSION - £10 win @ 9/1 (Corals)</span></b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><div><b>Arkle: El Fabiolo @ 9/4 </b><b>& Turners: Mighty Potter @ 3/1 : £10 win double</b></div></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b>Ballymore Hurdle: Marine Nationale - £5 win @ 25/1 (Skybet or, Ladbrokes & Coral)</b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><div><b>Broadway Chase: Thyme Hill - £5 win @ 8/1 (Bet365 or Skybet)</b></div><div><b>Broadway Chase: Thyme Hill - £5 win @ 7/1 (William Hill, NRNB)</b></div></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b>Turners Nov Ch: MIGHTY POTTER - £10 win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power)</b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><div><b>These horses are combined in 4 x £5 win trebles: £20 staked</b></div><div><b>NH Chase: Mahler Mission & Churchstonewarrior / Broadway: Gerri Colombe & Thyme Hill / </b></div><div><b>Ryanair: Shishkin (banker) </b></div><div><b>1) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Gerri Colombe @ 9/4 plus Churchstonewarrior @ 6/1</b></div><div><b>2) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Thyme Hill @ 5/1 plus Churchstonewarrior @ 6/1</b></div><div><b>3) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Gerri Colombe @ 9/4 plus Mahler Mission @ 8/1</b></div><div><b>4) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Thyme Hill @ 5/1 plus Mahler Mission @ 8/1</b></div></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><b>Cheltenham Gold Cup: PROTEKTORAT - £15 win @ 9/1 (paddy Power or Skybet)</b></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Total Staked to Date: £130 (Note: £20 returned NRNB)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>We had the 5-day declarations for the 2nd day of the Festival yesterday (Thurs 9th) and the main impact on the portfolio is that <b>Impaire Et Passe</b> remains in the Ballymore Hurdle, and is almost certain to run in that race for which he's the 7/4 fav. This is a bit of a blow, as I think he'd go close in the Supreme Hurdle and we hold a 10/1 voucher on that race. Fingers crossed that <b>Il Etait Temps</b> runs for us in the Supreme. Mullins has a stranglehold on the novice hurdles, and he probably has 4 potential winners of the Ballymore to choose from. Another odd declaration was <b>Mighty Potter</b> in the "Broadway" over 3-mile, because if he runs in this race then he wont be able to run in the "Turners" on Thursday, a race for which he's a strong fav to win. There are a lot of double-entries in the "Broadway", and I expect this race to cut-up which could prove advantageous to <b>Thunder Rock</b>: I can't see him winning this but he could sneak 3rd. There are no surprises in the QM Champion Chase, but with only 9 declared (and likely all going to post) then it's "fingers crossed" that my long-odds trebles (see my blog of 31Dec) involving (QMCC) <b>Nube Negra</b>; (Ryanair) Shiskin & Conflated; (Stayers' Hurdle) Flooring Porter; and (Gold Cup) Stattler come to fruition. </div><div><br /></div><div>Onto Day-3, Thursday and the day starts with...</div><div><b>Turners Novice Chase (Grade 1) over 2m4f</b></div><div>With 14 horses standing their ground, this race is taking more shape than some others. It pays to have a horse that has some jumping experience at Graded level. There have been some absolutely top-class winners of this race, and the market is usually reflective of the chances of contenders. <b>Mighty Potter</b> heads the betting as the 5/4 fav, and there appears to be no chink in his armour, which is good for readers of the blog as we have him at 7/2 and in a double with the "Arkle" fav El Fabiolo. What can beat him? I will be surprised if any of the other Irish-trained entries can get close, although I will respect the chance of <b>Sir Gerhard</b> (who won the Ballymore hurdle last year) if he takes part. Pay attention to the "Broadway" chase on Wednesday, as if Gerri Colombe and Thunder Rock do well in that, it will give the form of <b>Balco Coastal</b> - who split them at Sandown LTO - a big boost. Another to keep an eye on is Stage Star, who won over this C&D in January with 12st pretty much making-all. He was well fancied for the Ballymore last year, but pulled-up; even so I'd say he has the potential to win a race like this.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Pertemps Final H'cap Hurdle over 3-miles</b></div><div>There's only 28 runners to consider, and a max of 24 can go to post, so rather than speculate I'm going straight into form assessment. Remember, I posted last years 25/1 winner Third Wind on the morning of the race! These 3-mile handicap hurdles take a certain type of horse to win, and strong form-lines can be overlooked.<b> </b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Ryanair Chase over 2m5f</b></div><div>Cheltenham experience is a must when seeking the winner of this race, and the betting is a good guide with 6 of the last 7 winners going off at odds no longer than 9/2. Readers of the blog will hopefully be cheering on <b>Shishkin</b> as he completes the final leg of a successful winning treble; he looks near unbeatable in this race based on his win LTO at Ascot. He may not have many rivals to contend with, as <b>Blue Lord</b> will likely go for the QMCC; <b>Conflated</b> for the Gold Cup; and I will be surprised if <b>Chancun Pour Soi</b> runs. What will follow Shishkin home? <b>Janadil</b> was 2nd last year, but benefitted from the fall of Conflated 2-out. <b>Fury Road</b> just isn't quick enough when it matters; and I'm not sure about <b>Envoi Allen</b> - he could be 160+ or maybe he just made the most of an opportunity when winning at Dromore in November? I think <b>French Dynamite</b> is under-estimated here: he was just btn by <b>Ga Law</b> in the Paddy Power h'cap giving the winner 6lb; he clearly didn't stay 3-mile when running in the Grade 1 Savills Chase on 28Dec; and had he not been impeded LTO by the faller (Haut En Couleurs) I think he'd have btn Fakir D'oudairies - in which case he'd be 2nd fav for this race. Sure, <b>Ga Law</b> is improving, but so is <b>French Dynamite</b> and I think he is the better horse. By-the-bye, both of these horses are well-handicapped at the moment, and I'm not sure why they are not contesting one of the handicaps instead. Given that Shishkin is +10lb better than anything else in the race, it's pointless having an antepost wager for something destined (barring a cruel twist of fate) to run 2nd or 3rd. Better to wait until the day and play a straight forecast.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Stayers' Hurdle over 3-miles</b></div><div>This year we have one of the most open, and murkiest, Stayers' Hurdles since 2018. I know Lisnagar Oscar won at 50/1 in 2020 but let's be honest, that was a strange race which should have been won by Paisley Park who, both before and after the race, was the best staying hurdler around. We have 15 entries as of this afternoon, with a couple of supplemented runners: <b>Gold Tweet </b>was expected, but what is Mullins planning with entering <b>Asterion Forlonge</b>? I can only think Mullins is giving the owners of Asterion (who also own Shishkin) the opportunity to "enjoy" their Ryanair win by remaining in the paddock area after the presentation. As for Gold Tweet, do not under-estimate this horse: he comes here worthy of a place on merit. Current fav in what has been a very fluid betting market, is <b>Blazing Khal</b> who - to be frank - isn't worthy of the position based on beating Meet And Greet over 2m5f LTO. That was his 1st race in 14mths, so he may come on for it, or he may "bounce". <b>Marie's Rock</b> is untried at 3-mile, and I feel she may go for the Mares' Hurdle instead for which she has a great chance of holding onto her crown having won that race last year. <b>Teahopoo</b> needs the mud; he may have it, but it's more likely that by Thursday and running on fresh ground that he won't. <b>Home By The Lee</b> was easily beaten in this race last year, and I don't think he's improved since but that he's been flattered by some indifferent performances by his rivals. I admit <b>Flooring Porter</b> looked a sad shadow of himself LTO, but he's won from the front twice before in this race, and I feel if he runs on the day then he will be capable of a good effort. <b>Klassical Dream</b> is another who has been beaten when meeting the very best at this trip, and he had nothing more to give when 5th last year. <b>Paisley Park</b> at 11yo is a spent force. When 3rd last year in the 2m5f Coral Cup (h'cap) Hurdle, <b>Ashdale Bob</b> ran the race of his life; he looks capable of a bold bid if the ground isn't too soft, as I think on better ground he may have btn Home By The Lee LTO at Leopardstown over 3-miles. After Gold Tweet winning here in January, you cannot ignore the French-trained <b>Henri Le Farceur</b>, but he will come into this race off a break of 103 days which is a negative. He may have chased home Gold Tweet LTO, but it will take a career-best from the horse at 10yo for <b>Dashel Drasher</b> to win. I'm leaning towards Flooring Porter as he's done it twice before and he looks the only one capable of a 160+ performance if he comes right on the day. IF push come to shove, right now I'd be on one of the youngest horses in the race, who we know has winning form at Cheltenham and stays the trip: Gold Tweet. If he was trained at Lambourn he'd be the 7/2 fav for this race, yet there is plenty of 12/1 available NRNB.</div><div><b>Advised wager: GOLD TWEET - £5 eachway @ 12/1 (generally available, NRNB)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>The day ends with a couple of handicaps; the Kim Muir over 3m2f, and the "Plate" over 2m4f & 127 yds, which I will hold off reviewing for now as there are too many entries in both races to consider. The Mares' Novices Hurdle is not the sort of race I want to get involved in.</div><div><br /></div><div>I will be back tomorrow with another instalment. </div></div>Wayward Ladhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09940069760757554537noreply@blogger.com0