Absolute Shambles does it again

This is the 329th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No luck today for my selection posted on Betting League, which was HARLESTONE TIMES in the Ebor handicap. I really thought this horse had a much better chance than the morning odds of 25/1 as John Dunlop has a great strike-rate at York and had aimed this horse at the race since he won at Goodwood back in May. Unfortunately, he never got a look in and trailed in 11th. I had a feeling in my bones this morning about John Dunlop as he sent out just 3 horses to the races today; 2 to York and the other one – Berling – went to Chester, where it won at odds of 11/2 (touched 7/1). You can’t back all the “single” runners that every trainer sends out to a track and, in fact, Dunlop hasn’t had a winner at Chester in over 5 seasons, but making a note of trainers with single runners at a track is always a good place to start when looking for winners.

Those who followed my jumps season Horses-to-Follow list last season will know I was enthusiastic about Absolute Shambles early-on, but that enthusiasm waned as he ran poorly struggling to find his form. He did win a chase off OR80 in March but was unable to follow up suggesting he was just unreliable. Well, LTO he was put over hurdles with 1st-time cheek-pieces off OR76 (which was 11lb below the last rating he ran from over hurdles) and he won at 25/1. Today, raised just 6lb for that win to OR82, he was confidently ridden by 5lb claimer Tom Cannon and won again at 8/1. I wrote in my Horses-to-Follow list that ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES looked to be on a very lenient rating of OR92 back in September 2010, as such with his new-found confidence he should be up to winning off that mark over hurdles and, as such, can defy another hike by the handicapper. Remember, he can handle good-to-soft, stays 3-mile-plus and runs from the front – he could turn out to be OR100+. His full-sister Iron Maid won off OR115 as a hurdler, and his half-brother Longshanks was 7th in the National won by Silver Birch and won off OR130 as a chaser; so stick with him.

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