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Welcome to the "World of Horseracing".Way
This blog has been providing information, comment, and selections for horseracing in the UK and Ireland since March 2010.
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Thank you.daily insight into the sport of Horseracing and
Current Record - For the 2013-14 Jumps Season (since 30th September 2013):-
Upto and including Sunday 9th March 2014
profit = £234.79 from 59 wagers
staked = £745 (an average of £12.62 per wager)
31.52% return on investment
advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

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Sunday, 31 August 2014

Blog returns for the 2014-15 Jumps Season

Welcome Back!
After a near 5-month break, the Wayward Lad blog returns for the 2014-15 Jumps Season. Over the next week or so, I'll be tidying up the blog, completing the stats (profit & loss) for last seasons selections, and introducing some new pages.
I've been thinking about the Cheltenham Bulletin a lot over the summer months, and for this season I've decided to revise what I produce. There are a fair few Cheltenham Festival booklets around, each trying to convey that they give the reader the "inside-track" on the trends to find the winners - but most leave the final selection open to the reader to make.
What I've decided to do is publish my take on the Cheltenham trends and not include them in the Cheltenham Bulletin any more. My Cheltenham Bulletin will be a purely selection-based production, with the obvious aim of providing the reader/purchaser with a profitable Cheltenham Festival.
What this may mean is that I have to open a new Cheltenham blog with my take on the trends and which are most valuable and important. This is because of space constraints on this blog. I can only have 10-pages on the blog and, as I need 5 pages for the results of previous seasons and the current season of the blog, there is not enough room to allow for future expansion.
Having a purely Cheltenham Festival blog will allow me to dip in and out throughout the entire year with any information that I think is important for the reader.

I've had a fairly good summer away from the jump racing. In fact it has been quite profitable. Normally, I tend to lose a few quid on the flat racing and, last year, I concentrated on the "Listed" and "Group" races only - which gave me some success. This year, for the first time in many a year, I've been taking a closer look of the sprint race division, and I've done fairly well. I used to avoid sprint races like the plague, but my brother (who writes the blog Sprinterstogo ) has convinced my to give the sprinters another try. What I've found is the sprinters, when they are in the groove, are incredibly consistent. Take yesterday at Chester.

The opening race was a Class 2 handicap over an extended 5-furlongs. On his previous run at York, I'd made a note of B FIFTY TWO when he ran 3rd to Blaine on 20th August. This was his 1st race for his new trainer. Having earlier this season won at Chester over 5-furlongs (making all) and having won over 6-furlongs at Newmarket last season; the course and trip were no problem for him. With Chester specialist Franny Norton booked to ride, and receiving a favourable stall 2 draw - I really couldn't understand why the horse was at 4/1 in the morning. I tweeted the same on twitter to my 1500+ followers and, sure enough, B FIFTY TWO came out of the stalls leading on the rail, and was never headed. In fact Norton was looking for danger in the final 100 yards and coasted home.

A favourable word should also be made for the runner-up yesterday, DUNGANNON. He may be a 7yo, but I made this run his best since winning at Doncaster in October last year, which was his 3rd win in 4 starts over a 6-week period. If he's about to hit and maintain this sort of form again he is certainly one for the notebook.

Saturday, 5 April 2014

Grand National at Aintree

What a race we have in store for us today. A full complement of 40 horses and riders will be chasing the biggest prize - a million pounds - in jump racing. But first, yesterday, and altho' there was no blog issued (internet problems) I did send out a couple of selections on twitter including HOLYWELL who won at 7/2 and was installed at 12/1 in the Gold Cup market for next March.

I took a good look at the Grand National earlier this week and narrowed the field down to just 5. They are:-TEAFORTHREE @ 12/1 (available generally)
DOUBLE SEVEN @ 14/1 (available generally)
TRIOLO D’ALENE @ 22/1 with Bet365 paying 5-places eachway
CHANCE DU ROY @ 33/1 (available generally)
VINTAGE STAR @ 66/1 (available generally)
To those 5 there is only one other that I would add:
ALVARADO @ 33/1 (available generally)

If you are placing bets then make sure you check the terms of the bookies. Try and avoid those paying only 4-places eachway (Coral and William Hill) as all the rest offer 5-places except Bet Victor - and they are offering 6-places eachway.

At 12/1 I think TEAFORTHREE is great value to be in the 1st-5 and has a favorites chance of winning. He will be in the front-rank throughout the race and should give his supporters a great run. At the odds, I'm going to pass-over DOUBLE SEVEN as now AP McCoy has been confirmed as his rider he does not look value at 14/1.  One who looks destined to run a cracking race is TRIOLO D'ALENE. His trainer Nicky Henderson sent 3 winners out at Aintree yesterday and has his horses in tip-top form. TRIOLO D'ALENE won the Topham Chase last year, and then won the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury and was well fancied to go close in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. The worry is that he's carrying a big weight of 11st 6lb so he could be found wanting in the final mile.
There are no weight problems for CHANCE DU ROY: he's only carrying 10st 6lb and has a good record over the National fences having won the Becher Chase last December, and he ran 2nd in the Topham Chase in April 2012. To be honest, I thought he'd be 16/1 for this race and at 33/1 he has to be on the list of eachway wagers. Also with a light-weight is VINTAGE STAR with just 10st 7lb. You have to ignore his last run at Cheltenham - he seems to hate that track - but, before that, he ran a cracker at Haydock in the Peter Marsh Chase. The ground today will be perfect for him and - judged on his close 2nd to Hey Big Spender last November - he has an outstanding chance. Odds of 66/1 are an insult to the horse and he should be trading at less than 20/1.
I've added ALVARADO into consideration as this horse has sneaked into the race with just 10st 2lb . He seems to have unlimited stamina and the further the better for him. He does race at the rear early on, so don't get despondent if you don't hear his name early in the race as he'll be staying-on like a train in the final mile.
Finally, I can't finish this blog without a mention for the horse my girlfriend has put her money on - THE PACKAGE. He hated his experience when he next ran in the race in 2010, but he has tremendous for in handicaps coming 4th in the 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup and 3rd at Cheltenham last month with subsequent Aintree winners Holywell and Ma Filleule the only ones ahead of him.
My advised wagers on the race:
TEAFORTHREE - £5 eachway @ 12/1
CHANCE DU ROY - £5 eachway @ 33/1
VINTAGE STAR - £5 eachway @ 66/1
Total = £30 staked

Of the rest of the card, there is nothing much that looks a value wager except in the 3:25 which is the 3m1f handicap chase. I've long had a eye on WIESENTRAUM and he looks well handicapped off OR130 for this race and has the benefit of 1st-time blinkers. He should be trading a lot shorter than 20/1 (Skybet and Sportingodds) and looks a decent eachway wager.

Aintree 3:25 - WIESENTRAUM, £5 eachway @ 20/1

All the best to readers, and let's hope all the horses go home safe and well.
If you've read this blog and enjoyed it please recommend the blog by pressing the G+1 button below.
Finally, if any of my Grand National selections win and you have a profitable day on the back of what you've read here, please return to the blog and make a donation from your winnings.
Thanks from Wayward Lad