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Record of the blog selections

Current Profit for the 2015-16 Jumps Season = £441.96

from wagers on 31 individual selections (8 winners, 7 placed, 16 unplaced)

Total Staked = £310.00

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This blog is based on finding winners - if you want to lose your money then read another blog.
advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Friday, 27 November 2015

Newbury "Hennessy" meeting - Day 2

Another profitable return yesterday, when blog selection Belmount ran 3rd at 9/1 having been advised as an eachway selection. Only 6yo, this was encouraging from Belmount and he remains of interest and on the alert list. I was right to avoid the favorite in the race Wuff, as he ran very disappointingly.

There is a cracking day of racing today, with another excellent card at Newbury. With such an array of decent races to choose from, I'm going to pass over the Class 3 hadicap chase over 2m2f for Conditional Jockeys' at 12:55pm.  The next on the card is the 3-mile Class 3 handicap hurdle and while I don't usually have wagers in hurdle races, I do like 3-mile hurdles (as very few horses can stay 3-miles effectively at a decent racing pace) and we have alert list runner in the top-weight Open Hearted who won for readers of the blog LTO, and the form of that race has worked out very well. Also, Open Hearted ruins off a hurdle rating of OR142 which is 3lb lower than his chase rating (OR145) and that may well be lenient, too. With those at the head of the market looking a bit vulnerable: Sykes has been raised 7lb for his LTO win, and Missed Approach not having run since last December - the 12/1 available on Open Hearted (Coral, and Stan James) looks fair eachway value for a horse we know will stay the trip, is race-fit and can win with top-weight.

We have other alert list runner in the Grade 2 novice chase over 2m4f at 2:05pm in Sametegal and Maximiser though, at the weights, I'm only really interested in Maximiser. The race fav is Activial who is having his chase debut in this race, which is a tough ask. There is no substitute for chase form in novice chase races, and you have to see a horse jump a fence in a race before you can place a wager on it, in my opinion. Three Musketeers at 9/2 is the 3rd-fav, and needs to find a fair bit of improvement on his chase debut to win this, which is not impossible but I'd want longer odds than 9/2 to take the chance. However, Maximiser jumped well LTO when 2nd to Silsol (who has won again since) and the odds of 3/1 look fair, and I can see him starting at under 11/4. The race conditions (which see Sametegal conceding 7lb to Maximiser) make life tough for Sametegal.

The Class 2 handicap chase over 2m4f at 2:40pm looks a cracker of a race. From the alert list we have Upepito who runs again off OR128 and has (in my opinion) about 7lb in hand, and the trip and soft ground will be in his favour. Also, he will be ridden by the capable Harry Skelton, brother of the trainer Dan Skelton,  Odds of 4/1 look very fair as he will be receiving weight from the entire field. I am expecting a good run from alert list horse Royal Regatta who was left at the start LTO and did well to run 6th, but the trip will stretch him. Other alert list horses in the race are Upsilon Bleu and Roc D'Apsis.  Back in 2013, Upsilon Bleu was 4th in this race when a 5yo, and he's improved a lot since then and looks interesting off OR147 and the soft ground will suit him. He could run a big race, but this looks a big ask for Roc D'Apsis who is up 10lb for his LTO win. If Niceonefrankie is in the form of last autumn he could take some beating, and the same can be said for Monetair - but both are 9yo and I prefer younger horses in these competitive handicaps.

Newbury 2:05pm MAXIMISER, £5 win @ 3/1 (available generally)
Newbury 2:40pm UPEPITO, £10 win @ 4/1 (available generally)
£5 win double on MAXIMISER and UPEPITO
Total staked = £20

Thursday, 26 November 2015

"Hennessey" meeting Day 1

The 3-day Hennessy meeting opens today at Newbury. 

Firstly, there was a development yesterday in the Hennessy Gold Cup to be run on Saturday with the withdrawal of Valseur Lido, which was the more fancied runner of the pair entered by Willie Mullins. That means that if Ruby Walsh rides in the race he will most likely be on Ballycasey, currently priced at 33/1 but unlikely to be those odds if Walsh is in the saddle.  However, it seems more likely that Ruby Walsh will be at Newcastle on Saturday.

At Newbury today, we could see a future star chaser in the opening novice hurdle in MODUS.  Bred to be a “Derby” winner, he’s not particularly quick (hence only 2 wins from 6 starts in NH flat races) but he hacked-up on his hurdling debut on 12th November, and should win his race today at 12:30pm – but, as he’s quoted odds-on at 8/15, he’s a “no-bet” from me.

The novice chases today at 2:10pm and 2:45pm should both watched with interest as they will provide a host of potential decent chasers for the future.  In the Grade 2, novice chase over 2m7f at 2:10pm, the fav is the David Pipe trained Un Temps Pour Tout, who was trained to win the World Hurdle over 3-mile at the Festival last March, but was unplaced. He was beaten on his chase debut 12-days ago and so should be fitter for this today.  However, Pipe’s horses are not winning as many races as they should be and I don’t think this horse is a value wager at 15/8.  I think it is interesting that Paul Nicholls, who has a good record in this race, has sent Port Melon (he also had LTO winners Silsol and Katgary entered) , and I am expecting a big run from this horse and 14/1 looks interesting.

The novice handicap chase over 2m6f at 2:45pm has been won in 2 of the past 3 years by Paul Nicholls, and he sends the top-weight with 11st 8lb, Warriors Tale (current odds 6/1). Although the weights in this handicap go down to 10st 5lb, the last 4 winners have all carried 11st-plus to victory, suggesting the better class horses usually prevail.  African Gold was a tremendous novice hurdler but has suffered through injury for the past 2 seasons. Whereas Nitrogen is a half-brother to triple Gold Cup winner Best Mate, and could develop into anything, such is his potential.  Not an easy race in which to find the winner.

There is one off my alert list running at Newbury today, and that’s BELMOUNT in the Class 3 handicap chase over 3-mile for amateur riders at 1:00pm. He’s a big horse who has won on heavy ground and tho’ he struggled LTO at Exeter (started the fav but pulled-up 4-out) that race was run at a fairly strong pace on testing, soft ground.  His amateur jockey rode the runner-up in a similar race at Cheltenham recently (readers of the blog were on the winner, Knock House ridden by Nina Carberry) and retains his 7lb claim.  Currently 9/1 this looks a weak race, and BELMOUNT should be 5/1 for this based on his two completed chase races.  He possibly won’t beat the 2/1 fav Wuff, but Baby Shine usually needs a race under his bealt and this is his seasonal debut, and he may have more to fear from Russe Blanc who was also in the Exeter race but was well beaten in 6th.  But, it looks unlikely that he will finish out of the 1st-3 (in my opinion) and he could well sneak a win.


Newbury 1:0pm BELMOUNT, £5 eachway @ 9/1 (BetVictor, 5th odds a place 1,2,3 – other bookies go 8/1)

Wednesday, 25 November 2015

Sing when you are winning!

No wagering opportunities for me today, as I stay away from class 4 (and lower) race and maintain my focus on alert list runners and the races they contest.
However, on the horizon we have a feast of alert list horses entered for the weekend’s racing – and the weekend starts on Thursday!

Before that though - this week the Wayward Lad blog posted its 800th Blog Page! 
This is no fly-by-night horseracing blog post.  I've been posting horseracing blogs since March 2010, and I aim to continue posting blogs for another 5-years and more. 
What is more, for every jump season this blog has been in profit for advised wagers. Sing your own praises, and sing when you're winning!

The “Hennessy” meeting at Newbury opens on Thursday with some good –looking races that could offer wagering opportunities.  There are two novice chases – one a Grade 2 over 2m7f which has been won by some decent horses in the past; and the other a Class 3 handicap over 2m6½f which has (possibly) and even better roll-call – and I will be studying the form of the entrants for these races closely, as well as making note of the performances on the day.
There is also the “Gerry Feilden” hurdle, a “Listed” handicap race over an extended 2-mile which looks like being contested by a few of last season’s best juvenile hurdlers.  There is also a supporting meeting at Taunton and, with these busy weekends, I like to ponder the multiple entries of the trainers. For instance, Nicky Henderson has only one horse entered at Taunton where he has a 23% strike rate (7 wins from 31 runners since 1st May 2011) and that is William Henry in the novice hurdle; but he has 11 entered at Newbury on the same day, including an entry for William Henry in the opening day’s novice hurdle.

Friday brings us meetings at Doncaster and Musselburgh but, looking at the cards and entries, we may be lucky to find any wagering opportunities there.  However, Newbury brings us another top card which includes the novice chase in which eventual Gold Cup winner Coneygree was introduced to chasing (he’d already refused to race at Plumpton earlier in the season).  This card has one of my favourite races of the season in the Class 2, 2m4f handicap chase at 2:40pm. I looked at my blog for this day last season and, of the 4 races I reviewed, I found 3 winners but the only loser was the horse I advised as a definite wager!  Let’s hope that I’m more focused this week.

Saturday looks a tremendous day of jump racing. I have already looked at the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury and sent out a provisional advice to those on the email list.  The “Hennessy” is followed by a Class 2 handicap chase over an extended 2-mile, and one of the entries is Turn Over Sivola who was withdrawn on Saturday morning last weekend from a planned race at Ascot.  There is a great meeting at Newcastle which would be good enough to be the feature meeting of any other Saturday as there is the Grade 1 “Fighting fifth” hurdle over and extended 2-mile, followed by the Class 1, “Rehearsal” Chase over 3-mile which sees the return of Wakanda to the track (he won for us last month) as well as Final Assault and Saroque. The race also holds an entry for Cloudy Too and, to be fair, this race is possibly an better target than the “Hennessy” at Newbury for him.

All-in –all, we have plenty of top class racing to look forward to over the next few days, and we should have a host of betting opportunities – so I am not too worried that we’ve not had an wager since last Saturday.  The way to profitable betting is to pick and choose your targets.

I sent out a preview of the Hennessy Gold Cup by email to those on the email list yesterday, with a shortlist of 3 antepost advices.   For the Paddy Power Gold Cup 2-weeks ago, I gave those on the email list the names of 3-horses to take antepost odds on 2-days before the race itself, and that shortlist of 3 included the winner Annacotty.

If you want to be included on the email list - and receive the blog by email about an hour before it goes online, or the day before when I think the selection is exceptional value and holds and exceptional chance (we've hit that goal twice with Wakanda and Vintage Star), then the terms are a £10 donation per month to be included on the email list. The donation button (payment via Paypal) is on the right of this message.

Tuesday, 24 November 2015

Rain makes horseracing heavy going

This week, which leads up to the "Hennessy" meeting at Newbury, is fairly quiet, with most races at the lower end of the racing scale.
I find that, rather than "trying" to find a wager, it is better to hang on and wait and be patient for the better quality racing which will come in a few days time.
That said, I always peruse the day's racing to see if there are any "ricks" in the betting, or to follow-up on any alert list horses that are declared to run.
We have an alert list runner today at Lingfield in the Class 3 2m7f handicap chase at 3:00pm. There has been an enormous amount of rain over Sussex in the past 24-hours and, understandably, the ground is "heavy". When it is heavy at Lingfield, the ground is almost bottomless and, as I write this, I'm getting less and less likely to advise a wager today. The alert list runner is UMBERTO D'OLIVATE who went onto the list after running 3rd to Saroque at Exeter 3-weeks ago.

I've just learned (9:25am) that Umberto D'Olivate is a non-runner.

Given the state of the ground today I have decided that it is probably best to give the day's racing a miss. It will come down to which horse moves through the mud best and has the best attitude to racing in what will be atrocious conditions - and the winner will likely have little to do with known formlines.

Tomorrow, there are meetings at Fontwell and Wetherby and, while there are no suitable races at Fontwell, we may have an opportunity at Wetherby in the 2-mile Class 3 handicap chase at 2:25pm. The advance going is soft, so it will all depend on how much rain falls today, and how many horses remain entered in the morning. At this stage there are a couple of alert list runners in the race.

Thursday brings the opening day of the "Hennessy" meeting at Newbury, and there are several suitable races that day, so I'm happy to wait and be patient.  In the meantime, I will look ahead a the form for the big race itself - the Hennessy Gold Cup (handicap) Chase - on Saturday and try and find a value wager in the race.

It's likely that any antepost value in the Hennessy Gold Cup will be advised by email to those on the email list on either Thursday or Friday.  For the Paddy Power Gold Cup 2-weeks ago, I gave those on the email list the names of 3-horses to take antepost odds on 2-days before the race itself, and that shortlist of 3 included the winner Annacotty.

If you want to be included on the email list - and receive the blog by email about an hour before it goes online, or the day before when I think the selection is exceptional value and holds and exceptional chance (we've hit that goal twice with Wakanda and Vintage Star), then the terms are a £10 donation per month to be included on the email list. The donation button (payment via Paypal) is on the right of this message.