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Record of the blog selections for the 2014-15 Jumps Season:-
Profit = £193.62 from 37 wagers
staked = £440 (an average of £11.89 per race/wager)
44.00% return on investment
advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Saturday, 28 February 2015

Trying for another winning Saturday

Another Saturday of decent jump racing and the pressure is on to continue the good run of profitable Saturday wagers posted on the blog. Last Saturday, MILBOROUGH did us proud winning the Eider Chase having been advised at 20/1 in the morning. That took the blog profit for this jumps season to just shy of £200 on total advised stakes of only £420 for the season. I know some of my followers put on larger wagers than those that I advise, and with 4 winning Saturdays from the past 5 weekends (and 5 winning Saturdays from the past 7 weekends) the bookies are feeling the pinch.

We have 3 meetings todays at Newbury, Doncaster and Kelso, so plenty of racing to choose from.

At Newbury, the feature race is the at 3:25pm - a Grade 3 handicap chase run over 2m4f worth over £28,000 to the winner. I think the top-weight and race fav Sound Investment will struggle off this mark of OR149 unless he can find a few pounds of improvement. His run LTO over 3-mile can be excused as he didn't stay the trip, but his win at Sandown in November now looks top-notch form. But I felt he was helped by the ground that day (a lot softer than good-to-soft) and so I have my eye on another in the race. The obvious one is Royal Regatta, but we have to assume that the horse - who has been running over 2-mile as a novice chaser - will stay this trip. Saint Raph is another who we have to make a judgement on as he won by a mile (actually 34-lengths) when left in the lead at the final fence LTO, and that form may be dubious based on the subsequent performances of those that were beaten that day. Venetia Williams hasn't been in good form of late, and she sends a handful of runners here today, including Benny's Mist. All his winning has been on soft or heavy ground so you may be wondering why I'm talking about him as it's good-to-soft on the chase course at Newbury (it's soft on the hurdle course). Well, he's run some cracking races in defeat on good and GS ground in the past 12 months, and he stays up to 3-mile. I have a feeling this race will be run at a good pace and that will favour Benny's Mist who will be thereabouts come the finish. Odds of 10/1 with Bet365 and Stan James who are quarter-odds a place 1,2,3 look generous to me as I'd have him at about 6/1, maybe even a bit less.

At Doncaster, the feature race is the Grimthorpe Chase over 3m2f at 3:45pm. The ground is 'good' and that is perfect for last year's winner Night In Milan, who does not want the ground to be soft. However, the last horse to win this race carrying more than 11st was that top-class chaser Cloudy Lane back in 2008, and I cannot see either of those at the top of the handicap winning this race today. I'm going for a young chaser who has had a gentle preparation this season, with this being only his 3rd race of the season - Samingarry. Today's trip and ground will be perfect for him, and he comes into this race fairly fresh and this race looks like it has been his target for the season. Odds of 12/1 (available generally), are not as generous as I'd expect, but that reflects that opposition.

Just the two selections and, as I did last week, I'm going for a big hit with a small eachway double.

Selections
Newbury 3:25 - Benny's Mist, £4 ew @  10/1 (Bet365 and Stan James)
Doncaster 3:45 - Samingarry, £4 ew @ 12/1 (available generally)
plus
£2 eachway double on the above selections
Total staked = £20

Wednesday, 25 February 2015

Record of selections for the 2014-15 Jumps season

Current Profit for season = £199.62
Total Staked = £420.00
Return On Investment = 47.52%

21-Feb 15 - Milborough, £4 ew @ 20/1, WON: Profit = £105.00
                 - Tenor Nivernais, £4 ew @ 14/1, lost (£8.00)
                 - £2 eachway double, lost (£4.00)
14-Feb 15 - Balder Succes, £20 win @ 4/1, WON: profit = £80.00
                 - Mountainous, £5 ew @ 20/1, lost (£10.00)
07-Feb 15 - Houblon Des Obeaux, £20 win @ 100/30, lost (£20.00)
                 - Wilton Milan, £10 win @ 13/2, lost (£10.00)
31-Jan 15 - Brick Red, £20 win @ 4/1,  WON: profit = £80.00
24-Jan 15 - Dynaste, £20 win @ 5/2, lost (£20.00)
                 - Annacotty, £5 ew @ 6/1, WON: Profit = £36.50
                 - Saphir Du Rheu, £20 win @ 3/1, WON: Profit = £60.00
17-Jan 15 - Green Flag, £5 ew @ 13/2, lost (£10.00)
03-Jan 15 - Brick Red, £5 eachway @ 9/2, Profit = £0.62 (ran 2nd)
                - Triolo D'Alene, £5 eachway @ 18/1, Profit = £17.50 (ran 3rd)
26-Dec 14 - Boxing Day Yankee, lost (£22.00)
                  - Boxing Day Double, lost (£8.00)
13-Dec 14 - Ericht, £5 ew AND £5 win @ 10/1, lost (£15.00)
05-Dec 14 - Wilton Milan, £10 win @ 5/2, lost (£10.00)
29-Nov 14 - Vintage Star, £5 eachway @ 13/2, lost (£10.00)
                  - Midnight Prayer, £5 eachway @ 28/1, lost (£10.00)
28-Nov 14 - Big Water, £10 win @ 9/4, lost (£10.00)
22-Nov 14 - Silviniaco Conti, £10 win @ 7/2, WON, Profit = £35.00
                  - Rajdhani Express, £10 win @ 7/2, lost (£10.00)
15-Nov 14 - Master Neo, £5 ew @ 12/1, lost (£10.00)
                  - Ericht, £5 ew @ 22/1, lost (£10.00)
                  - Kapga De Cerisy, £5 ew @ 22/1, lost (£10.00)
12-Nov 14 - Foxcub, £5 eachway @ 11/1, Profit = £66.00
04-Nov 14 - Balder Succes, £10 win @ 3/1, lost (£10.00)
01-Nov 14 - Medermit, £5 eachway @ 10/1, lost (£10.00)
                  - Roalco De Farges, £5 eachway @ 8/1, lost (£10.00)
31-Oct 14 - Viva Colonia, £5 eachway @ 16/1, Profit = £11.00 (ran 3rd @ 5th odds a place)
16-Oct 14 - Greywell Boy, £5 eachway @ 14/1, lost (£10.00)
15-Oct 14 - Oyster Shell, £15 win @ 3/1, lost (£15.00)
11-Oct 14 - Gas Line Boy, £5 eachway @ 16/1, lost (£10.00)
10-Oct 14 - Black Thunder, £10 eachway @ 16/1, lost (£20.00)

Sunday, 22 February 2015

20/1 winner for the blog with Milborough

What a great result for the blog yesterday when MILBOROUGH - advised at 20/1 in the morning - stayed-on strong to take the marathon Eider Chase over 4-mile and a furlong. The form was in the book (as I wrote on my blog) and he just needed a bit of luck to ensure he got around.
I thought I was onto a double when there was a concerted gamble on my other selection Tenor Nivernais, who went off at 9/1 (advised at 14/1) but the ground did for his chances.

Even so, the blog returned a £93 profit on the £20 staked.

There were some good performances yesterday, none more so than that of Rocky Creek in the feature race at Kempton. He ran right up to his best on my assessment, which puts him just below Gold Cup class, but not by much. If it were a soft ground Festival, I'd have him running in the Gold Cup.

At Chepstow, another Festival contender won as Sire De Grugy sauntered home from a small field. He was giving away lots of weight and I didn't think he'd be capable of doing it, but he did. He was helped by a poor effort from Grey Gold (in-receipt of 20lbs) who ran about 15lbs below what he is capable of. Why do I think that? Because he only beat the OR132 rated Mister Grez by 2-lengths despite that horse being 14lb out of the handicap. As such, I've rated Sire De Grugy at 160 for this performance. Along with Sprinter Sacre, I think both these QMCC market leaders will come on for the run, but I think there is more potential from Sprinter Sacre.

I hope you were on yesterdays winner, I know more than a few were. That makes it 4 winning Saturdays from the last 5, and my confidence is running high as the Cheltenham Festival approaches.

Saturday, 21 February 2015

A handicap double in the two big chase races

Followers of the blog have had a good few weeks as we've had winners on 3 of the past 4 Saturdays: Annacotty @ 6/1 (advised), Saphir Du Rheu @ 3/1; Red Brick @ 4/1, and last week Balder Succes @ 4/1. So, let's try and keep this good run of form going.

Although we have the Eider Chase at Newcastle, there are also interesting meetings at Kempton and Chepstow where Sire De Grugy attempts to get his season back on track in the 3:35. However, he will have to be at his best and more to win the handicap chase he's entered for as he's giving away 20lb to Grey Gold and 22lb to Far West. Personally, I don't think he's capable as I don't think he's OR172 at all, and I have him at 162 at best. He had a very nice run last season and made the most of it, but he's no world-beater. The ground may prove too soft for Far West, but he will have the benefit of a 5lb claimer in Jack Sherwood, and his OR150 rating is probably spot on. The 10yo Grey Gold will have perfect ground for him but I feel he's about 148 at best, so it looks like he's harshly treated on OR152. The odds of 5/2 on Far West look fair value to me, as I'd have him at 6/4 but then I'd also have Grey Gold as the 2nd fav at 5/2.

Earlier in the day, there is a handicap chase over 3-mile at 2:30 which could also go to a horse ridden by a claimer: Winged Crusader. The pace of the race was probably too hot for him LTO and he pulled-up, but this should be a more sedate affair. Odds of 9/2 are not great value though.

At Kempton, the feature race is the Betbright Handicap Chase over 3-miles, but there looks to be an interesting chance earlier on the card. The novice chase at 2:35pm over 2m4f has been won by some decent horses over the years and trainer Paul Nicholls has dominated it. He has Irish Saint running for him and although I like the horse, he looks exposed now and his OR150 rating is about right. He will therefore find it hard to contain a couple of these: notably the fav God's Own who has lost his way in recent months, but also Melodic Rendezvous. While I don't think God's Own is worth an OR160 rating he should be suited by the race conditions as he carries the same weight as Irish Saint. However, I don't think either will be able to hold Melodic Rendezvous who will enjoy the soft ground and wont be phased by the trip. This horse also receives 7lb from his 2 rivals named above and that swings the balance in his favour. Odds of 5/2 looks very fair as I think he should be the clear fav at maybe 6/4 or less for this with his rivals at 5/2 and longer.

The Betbright Handicap Chase at 3:45pm has a quality competitive field. While this race can be won by a horse carrying a big weight, it takes a special horse to do it. Personally, I  cannot see either Rajdhani Express or Rocky Creek winning this, and while I expect Fox Appeal to run well, his stamina could well be exposed in this race. For me, I'm looking at those carrying less than 11st, and a couple stand out: Renard who is a consistent performer who loves soft ground, his stablemate Tenor Nivernais who has been crying-out for a step up in trip to 3-mile; and Tap Night who is weighted to run a cracker if he stays this 3-mile trip. I think the fav Easter Day is a silly price at 9/2 for this and given the competitive field he should be more like 7/1 or longer on what he's shown on the track. For me, 14/1 about Tenor Nivernais is a value wager.

At Newcastle, the Eider Chase at 2:55pm is run over 4m1f - a real marathon. There is a place for marathon races, but we have to pay attention to the ground as they are not pretty affairs when it is heavy and the mud is flying. What is interesting is that all the most recent winners have carried 11st or more - that is unusual for a marathon race. Of the 4 horses that meet that criteria, only one looks like winning - Shotgun Paddy the top-weight with 11st12lb. He will ensure a good pace throughout and will prove tough to beat and is a worthy fav. BetVictor and Corals go 13/2 which is very generous as I'd have him at 5/1 or even 9/2. I certainly cannot see either Wyck Hill or Portrait King beating him, and the 7yo Knockanrawley could prove to be out of his depth in this. Given the success of weight-carrying horses, I'm looking at Milborough with 10st13lb to go close. He certainly stays the trip and if you forgive his LTO fall his form looks very attractive. I'm especially taken with his run at Cheltenham last March when he was beaten only 10-lengths behind Shotgun Paddy on level weights. On that form he is well-treated in the formbook and his odds of 20/1 are worthy of an eachway wager.

Overall, it looks a difficult day to find value and there is a fair amount of risk attached to all the races I've looked at. The only wager that looks worthy of a "win" is Melodic Rendezvous, but it is only a small wager, as if God's Own can recover his early season for he will win this with something to spare.

Of the other big handicap chases, I am more confident of Tenor Nivernais at Kempton as he has the potential to find some improvement over today's trip of 3-mile. The worry with Milborough at Newcastle is that he is apt to hit a fence and that could prove costly at Newcastle, but he will be staying on in the final mile.

Selections:
Newcastle 2:55 Milborough, £4 eachway @ 20/1 (BetVictor and Bet365, both quarter-odds a place 1,2,3,4 and BOG)
Kempton 3:45 Tenor Nivernais, £4 eachway @ 14/1 (generally available at quarter-odds a place 1,2,3)
PLUS: a £2 eachway DOUBLE on the above pair

Total = £20 staked