Welcome to the World of Horseracing

Record of the blog selections

Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Wednesday, 30 October 2013

Could have done better

No winners from the couple of selections on Wednesday but it could have been a lot different had CHAC DU CADRAN not over-reached at the 10th fence and crumpled on landing. Up until that point, apart from meeting the 1st fence wrong, he'd jumped admirably and his jockey Tom Messenger was winding-up the pace and had them all, including the eventual winner Papamoa, working hard to stay in the race.
I'm sure that, had he not fallen, he'd have been able to draw away from this field and win comfortably as only the eventual winner and runner-up My Boy Paddy truly lasted the trip on this testing ground.
As such, CHAC DU CADRAN goes down as an unlucky loser in my book and hopefully he's come out of the race unscathed and should make amends NTO. 
I'm not so sure about SWALEDALE LAD. He also jumped fairly well, but the ground was too testing for him and when he started to get tired with about 6-furlongs to go he started making mistakes. That did for his chance and he was soon trailing the field. As such, I'm dropping him from the alert list as if he can't stay 2-mile on soft ground then he's not going to be visiting the winners enclosure much this season.
I'm making the long drive to Falmouth on Thursday, so no selections for me for that day but, hopefully, I'll have a blog out on Friday.
As such, we go forward with a profit for the season of £214.10 from 15 wagers on a total stake of £185.
I've just realised that Monday's blog was my 600th and the milestone passed without me making any fanfare. I really enjoy writing the blog, and I consider that it holds a mountain of information, which I refer to myself via the blog search facility.
Here's to cracking the 1000th page which (with a fair wind) we should breach some time in 2017.

Chac du Cadran to take the spoils

We have just the one jumps meeting at Carlisle today and it heralds a cracking spectacle of jump racing for the weekend. Looking ahead, we have a tremendous  Wetherby 2-day meeting on Friday and Saturday with the feature race being the Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2). There is an excellent supporting card on both days at Wetherby including a cracking handicap chase on Friday. There is also a very good 1-day meeting at Ascot on Saturday, so plenty to look forward to. Unfortunately, I'm off to the west-country on Thursday morning (returning on Sunday) to see my 11yo son who lives in Cornwall – so altho' I will make every effort to produce a blog on Friday and Saturday, it may well be brief in content and focus on just a couple of races.
Following a wipe-out on Saturday, I want to get back on the winning trail, and there are a couple of horse alert runners for me today at Carlisle.
2:40 – CHAC DU CADRAN
3:50 – SWALEDALE LAD
CHAC DU CADRAN progressed really well as a staying chaser last year considering he was a novice chaser. He ran a couple of tremendous races on soft going, winning over 3m6f at Catterick but, as a front runner, he's more than capable of setting a strong gallop over this extended 3-mile trip. There are 9 going to post, and none can be fully excluded from the considerations. Full Of Joy is a horse I've followed since his chase debut, but he's hard to predict. Dusky Bob is an interesting runner, but he's not a big improver on what he showed last season. My Boy Paddy disappointed last season and he probably wants going a bit more testing that what we have today. Ultra Du Chatelet is a complete unknown at this sort of trip. This looks a fairly ordinary Class 3 handicap chase with a just one horse looking capable of mixing with the big boys later-on this season – CHAC DU CADRAN. Currently 7/1 with BetVictor, and 13/2 elsewhere, those odds look more than decent value as I think he's more like a 4/1 chance and, if he's fully fit to race, on form he should be 5/2. As such, I'm on for £5 eachway and £5 win as it is very hard not to see him not finishing in the 1st-3 as he's a safe jumper of a fence and stamina is not an issue on this ground.
In the 3:50, SWALEDALE LAD is expected to maintain his improvement. He was 2nd behind a good one LTO over C&D and today's softer ground will be to his benefit. Currently 100/30 with BetVictor, Paddy Power and Stan James, that looks fair value in my book as I'd have thought he'd be starting at around 9/4. This is a tricky race tho', as are all novice chases at this stage of the season, so I'm only having a small £5 win stake on as there are a number of decent horses having their chase debut today.
Selections:
2:40 – CHAC DU CADRAN, for £5 eachway and £5 win @ 7/1 (Betvictor, BOG 5th odds a place 1,2,3)
3:50 – SWALEDALE LAD, £5 win @ 100/30 (BetVictor, Paddy Power and Stan James; all go BOG)
Total staked = £20

Monday, 28 October 2013

Weekend selections not good enough

Saturday was not the best of days for the blog, with none of the 3 selections being successful. I set myself high standards as a tipster as I know that many of the readers of the blog base their wagers on what I write. As such, I'm more than a little disappointed in the results from Saturday.
My opinion of the ground at Aintree was that it was probably more soft than good-to-soft, and that was reflected in the result of the opening race. My selection IFANDBUTWHYNOT was out on his feet from the 2nd-last hurdle and had little more to give in the final quarter-mile. Whereas the winner Karinga Dancer absolutely romped home making full use of the stamina he possesses. It should also be noted that the runner-up Bygones Of Brid, likes a bit of cut in the ground to show his best and it is a shame this talented gelding hasn't had a better race career.
My second selection at Aintree was SAVED BY JOHN, and jumping the 2nd-last he looked like he had the race in the bag being some 6-lengths clear and running-on strong. Unfortunately, he was probably in front a bit too early and lost his concentration. He was collared on the run-in by the very experienced chaser Rossini's Dancer, having his 26th chase race. The winner had already had the benefit of a run this season, which he'd won ; and the combination of race fitness and conceding 12lbs to the winner was what did for SAVED BY JOHN ultimately. This was unfortunate, as the opening odds of 4/1 was good value about him and, had he been pushed by a rival such as Gansey up to the final fence, then I'm sure he'd have held on and won. Whether we'll get similar value NTO is doubtful as his promise has been exposed now.
The final selection was MAJALA at Chepstow. I really did think the winner Sire De Grugy would struggle to concede 11lbs to MAJALA who I thought to be unexposed. The one thing I did know beforehand was that the Nicholls horse Rebel Rebellion was a false favourite – the Paul Nicholls horses just are not firing at the moment. Could be MAJALA wants softer ground to show his best, but Sire De Grugy was most certainly the better horse on Saturday by a long way.
So then, 3 selections and 3 losers for the blog. What's worse, I even had a further personal wager on WISHFUL THINKING when he drifted to 7/1. I really did think this horse was weighted to win, but his jumping was atrocious. Soft ground was no problem for him so I can only think he wasn't in the mood for racing. He did recover from some early mistakes to look like getting back into contention but he was badly hampered by the favourite Walkon at the 4th last fence (when that one blundered thru' the fence and lost his rider), and that was the final nail in his coffin.
Despite the losers, the blog is still showing a healthy profit for the jumps season. This time last year, we had yet to have the first blog selection, which was placed on 2nd November. As such, we are well ahead of schedule and last season was my best yet as a horseracing blogger.

Saturday, 26 October 2013

Tricky day, play it safe

Altho’ there was no selection yesterday, the alert list came good with a couple of short-priced winners. While I’m not a great believer in following short-priced runners, a successful £10 double on a couple of horses at “evens” returns the equivalent of a 3/1 winner. So, with the horse alerts flying in as regular winners, albeit at short prices, it may be worth combining them in doubles and trebles to small stakes.

So, straight off with the horse alert runners:-
Aintree:
1:55 – IFANDBUTWHYNOT
3:05 – VIVA COLONIA
3:40 – KRUZHLINIIN, SAVED BY JOHN
4:50 – YESYOUCAN

Chepstow
3:00 – SKI SUNDAY
4:10 – NOTUS DE LA TOUR
4:45 – MAJALA, SIRE DE GRUGY and THEATRICAL STAR

Stratford
3:20 – AL ALFA

Aintree, my “hometown” track (I was brought-up in Maghull just 3-miles north of the course) has a tricky card on paper. Possibly the strongest wager from my alert list is in the opening race with IFANDBUTWHYNOT. Firstly, the fav Karinga Bay is rated on the vastly improved form he showed over 2m4f when he last raced. IFANDBUTWHYNOT is a 2-mile specialist who went to the Festival as favourite for the County Hurdle where he raced respectably. Dropped 2lb for this, I think he has an excellent chance and I was expecting him to be 2/1.
Having Karinga Bay in the race means the odds for IFANDBUTWHYNOT are a generous 7/2.

The veterans chase looks very tricky and I’m not tempted by it.

The Old Roan Chase (a pub I used to drink in) is interesting. I reckon Walkon is overated at OR151, and that make this a wagering race. Last year, For Non Stop ran away with the race, but I can’t see anything similar in the race this year. My horse alert runner VIVA COLONIA is better than OR139 but I fear he’ll be outclassed in this. The horse that takes my eye is WISHFUL THINKING and, since I started writing this, his odds have shortened from 13/2 to 11/2. He will not run a poor race and will be on the premises at the finish.  There are a some potential rivals to him, mainly Astracad who will come good on one day this season, but on which day?  If he could be guaranteed to run to his best, my money would be on Astracad, but he’s too indifferent, hence being available at 10/1 with Ladbrokes as I write.

The 3:40 could be another wagering race as SAVED BY JOHN, currently 9/2 with Corals (BOG), will appreciate the trip and ground whereas Kruzhlinin would appreciate softer ground. This horse is another with a big future this season.  

At Chepstow, SKI SUNDAY looks like he’s found his winning opportunity. His jumping is getting better and his rating is well below his hurdle rating. This trip could suit him a lot better than his rivals, but his odds leave no room for error at just 7/2. Watch out for the ground at Chepstow as it’s heavy in places. Similar odds are available about MAJALA, bit we know this ground will be in his favour over this trip and he’s unexposed with some potential to improve. I like MAJALA, and I think he’s going to do well this season, especially when the ground is testing.

The day’s racing is very tricky and nothing stands-out as huge value as it did last week. So, I’d suggest smaller stakes and spread the load.

Selections
Aintree 1:55 IFANDBUTWHYNOT, £10 win @ 7/2 with Bet Victor or Paddy Power, both go BOG
Aintree 3:40 SAVED BY JOHN, £10 win @ 9/2 with Corals BOG (generally 4/1 elasewhere)
Chepstow 4:45 MAJALA, £10 win @ 100/30 with Paddy Power, BOG (generally 3/1 elsewhere)

Total = £30 staked

Friday, 25 October 2013

Fw: McCoy High Five

Here's me thinking that yesterday was a tricky day for finding winners, when all we had to do was follow AP McCoy at Carlisle where he rode 5 winners from 7 rides. In fact, the only horse he rode that properly disappointed, was the one I chose as the blog selection for the day. ABNAKI never got going, despite being a bit of a gamble starting as the 9/2, 3rd fav. This performance was too bad to be true, and I hope that on a better day we will see ABNAKI recover the loss. The main thing from my point of view was that I was right to oppose the market leaders.
 
Of the 3 runners from my alert list, 2 won in Pendra @ 4/5 and Parsnip Pete @ 7/2; the latter looking fortunate when being left in a clear lead at the final flight when his rival fell. Personally tho' I think he'd have won anyway. It is not easy to decide whether a return to hurdles for a seasonal debut for a chaser is just a prep race or a proper attempt to win. With Parsnip Pete, the horse was ready to win, but for the other horse alert runner, Billy Cuckoo, he clearly wasn't ready to race as he was soon struggling. I know from twitter that some of you were on the alert runners anyway and scored an 8/1 double with Pendra and Parsnip Pete.
 
PENDRA remains on the alert list as he looks destined to be a high class chaser. PARSNIP PETE also remains on the alert list and is being aimed at a chase at the Cheltenham Open Meeting in November. I think Billy Cuckoo has had his day in the sun and I'll think on him over the weekend as to whether he stays on.
 
Onto today and we have a meeting at Fakenham.  
WONDERFUL CHARM is on my alert list, and he makes his chase debut today in the 2:20 but he looks head & shoulders better than these and is odds on at 8/11, so no wager from me (my minimum odds for a bet are 9/4).
In the 2:50, FIRST IN THE QUEUE is also on the alert list after winner LTO so emphatically, but he's also odd-on at 5/6.  I do like the look of LIGHTENING ROD in this race as he's  a very capable hurdler on his day. While I doubt he'll win this race (unless the race-fav has a mishap) he should be up for the runners-up spot.
is odds are also
The handicap chase over 3-mile at 3:25 looks interesting and I'm not sure why there is the drift on the Nicholls runner Current Event, now trading at 11/1.  The trip is an unknown, but claimer Harry Derham is well worth his 5lb claim. One that looks interesting is VICTOR LEUDORUM ridden by AP McCoy. Mr McCoy only has one other ruide at the meeting , and trainer Charlie Mann has sent out only 3 runners from his stable in the past 14-day but 2 have won! This is his only runner today, and current odds of 10/1 look fair for this unexposed chaser who will stay the trip and enjoy the ground. There are only 10 runners and at least 4 will be trying to prove their stamina and another couple are outclassed (unless they have turned a corner) so, there's a fair chance of being placed, yet currently 3.60 (5/2) is available on the place-only market.
Finally, I think RIddlestown with confirm the placings when he re-opposes Plum Pudding in the 2m5f chase at 4:30. Riddlestown is an unexposed horse as a chaser, and more likely to improve for the recent winning run , which was only his 3rd chase. It's a class 5 race tho' and I'm never happy wagering on such lowly horses.
 
No recommended selections from me today, but I will probably have a place-only wager on Victor Leudorum.
 


Thursday, 24 October 2013

Hole in the net

I've said it before and will say it again (no doubt), but I probably should follow my horse alerts without question.
There were 4 alerts yesterday;

Spanish Arch ran 3rd at 5/1 - he had disappointed a couple of times last season and this was his debut chase.

Fox Appeal ran 2nd at 7/4 - as I don't wager at odds less than 9/4 he was passed over and it was also his chase debut.

Black Thunder won at 11/4 - he beat Fox Appeal and was Paul Nicholls' only runner of the day. I did consider him as an advise but it looked too competitive a novice chase for his debut.
Both of these novice chasers look to have a bright future this season.

Finally,
Bally Legend won at 20/1 - this was somewhat fortuitous as the fav and 3rd-fav both fell at the first hurdle. Bally Legend had been chasing last season,  and I thought this hurdle was a pipe opener for the season.  I overlooked that Caroline Keevil always has her horses fit to race and well prepared. This was the furthest trip Bally Legend had won over and, as a hurdler,  he'd struggled beyond 2m3f. As such, I didn't expect a winning run but he probably was worth a place-only wager.

The jumps season really gets going with 3 meetings today at Carlisle,  Ludlow and Southwell.
There are 3 horse alerts for PENDRA,  BILLY CUCKOO,  and PARSNIP PETE.

PENDRA - Carlisle 2:20 - should win this chase debut easily, and is destined for the Cheltenham Festival and probably the 3-mile RSA Chase.  He's odds-on today and I will be watching only.

BILLY CUCKOO - Carlisle 4:30 - is a consistent trier at his level. He won at Carlisle last Feb over this trip tho' today's GS ground may be too lively. His OR109 rating is very lenient as he's about 120-125 at best as a chaser. The big doubt is his amateur rider, as such 8/1 is not value and I'm looking for 10/1 plus.

PARSNIP PETE - Southwell 3:05 - returns to hurdles after a decent chase season (2 wins from 5 races). Rated OR133 as a chaser, he could easily win this if up for it, and 4/1 is fair but more than 5/1 would be more realistic.

Other potential wagers are:-
Carlisle 3:25 ABNAKI - only 4 chase runs but a 3-mile hurdle winner at Cheltenham, this 3m2f trip should be within his compass.  This trip will test The Friary and Pyjama Game,  tho' the latter looks the stronger to me. The danger could be old-timer Vic Venturi if allowed an easy lead.

Southwell 3:35 BENEFIT CUT - trainer Renee Robeson had Paddy Brennan booked to ride her only runner. Stamina has to be taken on trust, as such I'd want 8/1 at least for a wager.

Selections
Carlisle 3:20 ABNAKI, £10 win @ 11/2 (available generally,  use BOG bookie)

All the best from Wayward Lad.



Monday, 21 October 2013

You lucky people!

You happy few! 
On Saturday, there were just 68 downloads of my blog page with the recommended selection of JOHNS SPIRIT @ 14/1 prior to the race at 2:35pm. 
After the race, when we'd all witnessed JOHNS SPIRIT cruise thru' the field like a knife thru' butter, there were a further 76 downloads of the page but they were too late. 
It has been a great start to the jumps season for the blog. I thought last season was a great one for profits but these last couple of weeks I've selected 3 winners at 14/1, 15/2 and 5/1 and a place-only selection at the equivalent odds of 7/2, plus an eachway placed, from just 9 selections. 

30th Sept: SPORTING BOY £10 ew @ 15/2 - WON - profit £90 
1st Oct: Cinevator £10 ew @ 12/1 - U/P - lost £20
4th Oct: HI NOTE £10 place-only @ 4.38 (ave) - WON (2nd) - profit £31.60
9th Oct: Lucys Girl £20 win @ 7/2 - U/P - lost £20
12th Oct: Merrion Square £5 ew @ 12/1 - U/P - lost £10
15th Oct: MULDOONS PICNIC £10 win @ 5/1 - WON - profit £50
16th Oct: NO PLANNING £5 ew @ 10/1 - 3rd - profit £5
18th Oct: Handy Andy £5 ew @ 16/1 - 4th (of 15) - lost £10
19th Oct: JOHNS SPIRIT £5 ew & £5 win @ 14/1 - WON - Profit £157.50

Current Bank = £2,274.10
profit = £274.10 from 9 wagers
staked = £125


The only disappointment has been the level of donations following this series of winners, especially Saturdays selection which was my only advised wager of the day. I felt really confident about JOHNS SPIRIT. So much so that I gave the advice to a very select few on the evening before when there were several bookies offering 14/1, not just Ladbrokes. I don't have to do this. I could have held onto my selection until an hour before the race when the odds had tumbled to 8/1, but I didn't. I posted at 8:21am giving all who read the blog ample time to get on.

I think that, after blogging my selections since March 2010,  that I've proven my integrity as a horseracing tipster as I've never made a loss over the course of a season,  jumps or flat.  So, if you benefitted from reading my blog on Saturday morning and made some money on the back of my selection,  do the right thing and make a donation.  

Many thanks to all those who have made a donation.  It is greatly appreciated. 

For those who donate more than £10 before Valentines Day (14th February 2014) I'll send you a free copy of my Cheltenham Festival Bulletin for 2014 when it's ready.  Last year's included a recommendation for CUE CARD for the Ryanair Chase.

Saturday, 19 October 2013

Oh! I didn't deserve that!

What a race!
My only selection yesterday, HANDY ANDY, ran a cracker of a race looking the winner a long way out and, had some of his rivals stood up, he probably would have won well. He was left in front at the 3rd-last but he clearly hates running alone as, when in front, he slowed to allow the chasing pack to catch him. Thereon, he picked-up again and and looked full of running as the leading 3 came to the final fence where he was left alone again when the leader fell and the close-up 3rd nearly lost his rider. HANDY ANDY kept going for another 100 yards or so when he was still probably 8-lengths clear, when he virtually stopped. He's not a rogue of a horse, he just likes a bit of company, and when the eventual 1st-3 home caught and passed him, he picked-up again to hold on for 4th. No good to me as I was on eachway and, with 15 runners, 4th wasn't good enough for a place. But some readers of the blog must've traded out as HANDY ANDY touched 1.01 on the exchanges and, as he was trading at 22-25 before the off, that was for some (I'm sure) a tremendous result. Not bad for a 16/1 selection.
Unfortunately, what should have been a winner was actually a loser and the blog profit for this Jumps season now stands at £116.60 from £110 staked on 8 wagers.

Saturday is a big day for Cheltenham and there are a stack of horse alert runners:-
2:00 Monbeg Dude
2:35 Easter Meteor, Johns Spirit, Renard, Vulcanite and Malt Master
3:45 Lost Glory and Tour Des Champs

This is clearly a "pipe-opener" for Monbeg Dude. He was not much of a hurdler and isn't the quickest horse, that's why his best form is on heavy ground. Hopefully, he'll get round safe and this will prepare him for another crack at the Welsh National.

The 2:35 is a tremendous handicap chase over 2m4f.  The trip is too far for Renard who does not get a yard more than 2m1f. That said, he's slipped to OR132 after a couple of (ordinary) runs over 2m5f+ and when he drops back to a suitable trip he should be followed. The lightly raced Malt Master will probably find the ground a bit too quick and Cheltenham will be a completely different experience for him as he's mainly raced RH on flattish tracks. I do not think Vulcanite will stay this sort of trip in as competitive a race as this, he certainly didn't stay 2m5f at the Cheltenham Festival in March. If Easter Meteor is going to win this jumps season, then it will be in this race as he does go well fresh. The thing is, he's rated 14lb more than last year (when he was 2nd) and this race looks more competitive than that one and so, I don't regard his odds of 5/1 as holding much value. It is JOHNS SPIRIT that looks the best value. Rated only OR129, just 4lb higher than when he won his only chase (from 8 starts) last season, he comes here essentially unexposed at this trip even tho' it could be his best trip. After that win over 2m4f at Sandown, he was mainly raced over 3-miles or on testing ground which exposed his stamina limitations. He has the speed to be able to win over 2-miles as a hurdler, in fact he was 6th in the Imperial Cup, so its no surprise that he's not won beyond 2m5f in 4 attempts. I think he'll track the behind what should be a hot pace, and then pick them off in the final half-mile. Current odds of 14/1 with Ladbrokes look very generous.

The 3-mile-plus handicap chase at 3:45 looks another cracking race. I think Lost Glory has possibly been caught by the handicapper, but he should be on the premises in this which will probably be his final race before taking the winter off (he's not a lover of soft ground). I may play him on the place-only market. TOUR DES CHAMPS however looks to have a decent chance. He was highly tried last season, and finally came good in the Scottish National on good going. I consider him a 140+ horse, so his current rating of OR133 looks lenient. This is not an easy race to fathom, so not one to get too heavily involved in especially as there are a couple of horses who have lost form but could be on lenient ratings should they come right. Ace High for instance, is a very decent chaser on his day (he meets Lost Glory on 15lb better terms than when they last met) and if he can recover that form he'll be very dangerous. Similarly, Bradley was favorite for this race last year off a 3lb higher and was a strong finishing 4th. A repeat of that form will see him right in the frame.

Selections
Cheltenham 2:35 JOHNS SPIRIT, £5 ew and £5 win @ 14/1
Total = £15 staked

I am on with Ladbrokes but you will need to be quick I think.




Friday, 18 October 2013

Cheltenham - tricky opening day

Back at Cheltenham for the opening day of the 2013-14 season, and a tricky day's racing it us too.

There are several runners from my alert list today.
3:15 CAPTAIN SUNSHINE, VIKING BLOND and ON THE BRIDGE
5:00 HANDY ANDY
5:30 FOXCUB

The 3:15 looks a tough handicap to solve. This 3 mile hurdle is very competitive.  Last season,  I noted CAPTAIN SUNSHINE when he fell at Kempton and he looks well treated today with OR140. His odds look poor value for his running style and if you fancy him it may be best to look for longer odds mid-race.  He will need luck in running to win as he will appear late on the scene. VIKING BLOND was 2nd in this last year, but that ground was softer than it is today, and I think he may be outpaced.  Of those from my alert list, I prefer ON THE BRIDGE who will be with the leaders and does not seem to have stopped improving.  Of the others, I like horses with the benefit of a recent run, and MISSION COMPLETE fits the bill. He stays all day and usually carries bigger weights than his 10st 8lb today,  so he'll think its his birthday.  Thing is, nothing in this race looks value at the odds,  so this is a watching race for me.

HANDY ANDY runs in the amateur riders race, the sort I usually avoid. However,  this lighly raced chaser could have plenty of improvement in him and we know he stays the trip and handles the going. At 12/1 he looks worthy of an ew wager.

Finally FOXCUB impressed me when winning LTO.  However,  he has been hammered by the handicapper and raised 17lb.

Of the remainder of the racing, I fancy RUN AND BUTTER in the opener, and MINELLA FOR VALUE in the novice chase but, at their latest odds neithet offer value.

Selection
Cheltenham 5:00 HANDY ANDY, £5 ew @ 12/1 (available generally,  use BOG bookie)

Wednesday, 16 October 2013

One selection - one winner @ 5/1

I will beat my own drum about this blog, I dont know of another that gives as many winners from so few selections.

Just the one selection yesterday, MULDOONS PICNIC and he came home at the great odds of 5/1. I think he'd have won despite the fallers in the race and the fact that his odds lengthened from the 4/1 in the morning (even tho' there was a non-runner in the race and he had only 3 rivals) was a gift.
This is why an alert system - filled with horses that I have selected on merit - pays its way. I had faith that my selection could jump and stay the trip. The only doubt was the going but, with the trainer being Kim Bailey who has won the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle and Grand National; there was nothing to worry about. If Kim Bailey thought the ground was good enough for his horse to race on, then his opinion was good enough for me.
Unfortunately, De Blacksmith was a non-runner in his race but I'm sure he'll be running soon.
So, we go forward with a bank of £2,121.60 after MULDOONS PICNIC added another £50 to the pot, meaning we have made a profit of £121.60 since 30th September from just £90 staked on 6 wagers.

Today, we have a meeting at Wetherby with the Bobby Renton chsde over 2m4f. This looks a tricky race to fathom, but we have an alert horse running, NO PLANNING from Mrs Sue Smiths stable.  This horses best trip is 2m4f, so ignore his efforts over further last season. No doubt, he is better than OR126 and I'm expecting a good show from this horse today.  I thought he'd be about 6/1 for this, so 10/1 (BetVictor) looks very good value. There are just 8 runners so I hope they all go to post, and an ew wager is recommended.

Selection
Wetherby 3:55, NO PLANNING, £5 ew @ 10/1 with BetVictor who go BOG and 5th odds a place 1, 2, 3.

Tuesday, 15 October 2013

Time for a picnic?

Today we have an interesting meeting at Huntingdon,  and there are a couple from my alert list running.

In the 3:50 DE BLACKSMITH  has his chase debut and this horse is bred to be a chaser. He caught my eye last January when winning a hurdle race at Plumpton in game fashion. Highly tried after that, he was out of his depth. Not a great idea to bet on chasing debutants, especially as there is good support fir the likes of Bucking The Trend and Loudmouth,  but 14/1 looks fair and I will have a nibble in the place-only market.

The 2nd horse running today from my alert list is MULDOONS PICNIC.  He looks a decent chaser in the making after winning his last couple of races. It is the soft ground that is a worry and so I would not take a small price, but 4/1 looks fair for a small win wager.

Selection:
Huntingdon 4:50, MULDOONS PICNIC, £10 win @ 4/1 (William Hill and Stan James, both go BOG).

Sunday, 13 October 2013

One for the alert list

Yesterdays selection MERRION SQUARE looked in need of the race which was disappointing for a Paul Nicholls runner. With 5 to jump he moved-up smoothly behind the leaders (which was reflected in his in-running odds) but at that fence, the first in the straight, he hit it hard almost losing jockey Daryl Jacob and that did for his chance. Considering that another on my alert list in the race STORM SURVIVOR ran a great race to deat-heat for 3rd, and was well beaten by my selection when they met last May, there is plenty of scope for MERRION SQUARE to come on for the run. As such, I'm adding MERRION SQUARE to my alert list as he will surely improve for the run and has all his best form when going right-handed.

Another going onto my alert list is OPEN DAY who was 2nd earlier in the afternoon. I've liked this horse for a long time and when he gets his preferred conditions, a right-handed track, the word "soft" in the description and a trip of 2m4f, he's worth following.

Of the others from my alert list that ran yesterday:-
SWNYMOR fell when beaten, but should come on for the run and will appreciate a bit of "give" in the ground NTO. That said off OR140 he'll need to improve to win. I'll give one more chance to show his worth.
FOX RUN unfortunately suffered a fatal fall and we'll never know what he was capable of but he sure showed enough promise.
JOIN TOGETHER couldn't get involved and will be better-off when the rains come and slow the horses down.
THEATRICAL STAR ran a good race for the opening 20-furlongs of his race but (predictably) ran out of stamina at that point and trailed in last. If you discount the fact that he didn't stay the trip, this was a good run and he could be overlooked NTO over a shorter trip.

I'll be keeping my selections to my alert list for the near future and I'm tempted to wager on them blindly after HAROUET won at 9/1 earlier this week.

Saturday, 12 October 2013

Chepstow in Autumn

I love the Autumn.  What I like best is last season's horse alerts coming good again.
Yesterday,  there were 3 horses from my alert list running. SWALEDALE LAD who ran a fair race to be 2nd and will benefit from the run,  WAYWARD PRINCE who ran well for a long way in his pipe opener for the season - he can go well off a decent rating when returning to chasing.  Finally, HAROUET won at 9/1  at Carlisle returning to the form he showed last autumn. I didn't tip him as I thought he needed more give in the ground, but his class and stamina shone through. That race included Time For Spring,  I've never thought the horse stays a stiff 3-mile and I always oppose the horse at that trip.

Today, we have a great meeting at Chepstow.  There are several off my alert list running:-
SWNYMOR in the 4:45 but with McCoy not riding the Curtis trained horse I'll pass on this one.
FOX RUN in the 5:15 is a horse I expected to go better than he did as a novice hurdler. Maybe he'll imprive improve this season, but I'll watch today.
Then, in the 5:45 I have STORM SURVIVOR, THEATRICAL STAR and JOIN TOGETHER.  I reckon JOIN TOGETHER will run best on softer ground. I'm expecting a big run from THEATRICAL STAR who coukd could be very exciting.  The worry is this trip willbtest his stamina.  STORM SURVIVOR represents last years winning connections,  but he's not well in with MERRION SQUARE and at 12/1 this horse coukd be great value.  The doubt is that all his best form is on right handed tracks, but Paul Nicholls loves a winner at this meeting and he's worth a small each way wager in what, to me, is the race of the day.

Selection
Chepstow 5:45, MERRION SQUARE, £5 ew @ 12/1 (available generally,  BOG)

Wednesday, 9 October 2013

Searching for Value

There are  couple of meetings today with some decent races. I always consider this double bill of Ludlow and Towcester to be the start of the jump season.

At Ludlow one from my alert list is IMPERIAL CIRCUS who runs today off OR118.  Given his hurdle mark is 124 he looks well in, but this is not an easy race as I'm not sure he stays this 3-mike plus trip. As such, odds of 4/1 are not attractive and I'm looking for 5/1+. Unfortunately,  he seems to be the most popular tip of the day and those odds seem unlikely.

I think an easier option is at Towcester in the 4:20 with the fav LUCYS GIRL. This mare did not stay 2m7f LTO and this drop in trip will be to her liking as will the ground.  Being a class 5 handicap hurdle, there is not much worthwhile form in the opposition,  and so odds of 7/2 (Paddy Power and Bet365) look more than fair.

Selection
Towcester 4:20, LUCYS GIRL; £20 win @ 7/2
(Paddy Power or Bet365, both BOG)



Saturday, 5 October 2013

HI NOTE does the business place-only

There is more than one way to make a profit and yesterday was one of them. Place-only wagering is what I consider to be my secret weapon. It used to be available from high street bookies but disappeared in about 1981-82. I remember striking place-only doubles at the "Cheltenham Festival,  what fun.

HI NOTE secured the place money with a strong 2nd trying to concede concede 26lb to the winner.  That gave the blog £31.60 profit on the £10 place-only wager after commission.  The running total on the bank is now £2,101.60 with the 3 wagers so far providing a profit of £101.60.

No wager today but Hi Note could well be placed again at Fontwell in the 3:05.

Friday, 4 October 2013

Decent meeting at Fontwell

We had no luck with the selection Cinevator who ran like he was hating the ground at Chepstow which was on the soft side of good. As such, we dropped £20 and the bank brought forward is £2,070.
Today there are a couple of decent meetings at Fontwell and Hexham.  I'm most interested in Fontwell were there look to be some opportunities. Unfortunately due to work constraints I'm not able to write the detailed blog that I'd prefer to.
The novice chase at 2:40 could be an opportunity for SKI SUNDAY who ran encouragingly at Ffos Las LTO. Novice chases are not the best betting medium but we know this horse can jump a fence and has a bit of class. I can't advise a wager as I will probably only risk £5 of my own money if I can obtain 5/1.  Next up at 3:15, I really like the chance of HI NOTE to be in the places. The horse is fit from racing on the flat and has his ground. His mark of OR128 is fair based on last season's performance s and current odds of 14/1 are generous,  and while I cannot see him winning he has a great chance of placing, so I'm having £10 place-only on Betfair at about 4.60.

Selection
Fontwell 3:15, HI NOTE, £10 place-only @ 4.60 on Betfair



Tuesday, 1 October 2013

Back with a winner at odds of 15/2

What a great start to the jumps season.
Yesterday, I posted just the one selection, SPORTING BOY at Newton Abbot. As I wrote yesterday, this horse had been on my alert list for 12 months while I waited for the perfect wagering situation - that was presented yesterday when he returned to hurdling, race fit from some recent races over fences (which he didn't seem to enjoy as much as hurdling), and on ground that was just about quick enough (good-to-soft) to allow him to take part.
SPORTING BOY had gone into my alert list after winning for the 4th time in 5 races last November 2nd in a very quick time beating a useful looking field fairly easily after which he was rated OR129. Put away till the Spring, he was probably unfit on his return; heated the heavy ground on his next run; and was then not ready for his final hurdle race of the season.
Sent chasing for the summer he never looked anything but one-paced or lacking stamina (when racing beyond 2-miles) over fences, and so his return to hurdles yesterday saw him racing off OR115, the mark off which he won on the 2nd November last year. He's to be put away to the Spring again now (as he hates soft ground) and when he returns he'll need a race or two to get fit after which he'll be primed for a return to the winners enclosure. His place on my alert list is guaranteed.

So, from a starting bank of £2,000 yesterdays 15/2 winner provided £90 profit and the bank now stands at £2,090.

Today there is another from my alert list running - CINEVATOR in the 3:40 at Chepstow.  This looks a competitive novice chase, but I reckon there is some value in CINEVATOR who is currently at 12/1 generally.  He's a quick horse and that's why he's on my alert list. He also stays this 3-mile trip well having won both starts at the distance.  He won his debut chase and trainer Caroline Keevil knows how to educate a novice chaser (remember Sound Stage).

Odds of 12/1 are too long and invite an each way wager. As yesterday I'm having £10 each way with a bookie offering best odds guaranteed.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad