Welcome to the World of Horseracing

Record of the blog selections

Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Thursday, 28 February 2013

Time to buck the trend

Regular readers will know that I operate an alert list using the easyodds.com alert system. The reason I use easyodds (and not another provider) is that it's a free service and, as far as I know, it is unlimited  in the number of horses you can enter onto it. I'm at 200 horses, all national hunt, and what it means to me is that I am able to know when those entered are due to run.  
 
Yesterday, there were 3 horses from my alert system running and, for various reasons, I chose not to make them selections and subject to a proper wager. That was a blunder as one ran 2nd (Sustainability @ 7/2 in the 3:00 at Wincanton) and the other two won (Storm Survivor @ 7/1 in the 3:50 at Bangor, and Emperor's Choice @ 9/4 in the 4:10 at Lingfield).
I opted-out of a wager on Sustainability as there were only 4 horses in the race, and I really don't like having a wager in races with less than 6 runners. Storm Survivor was the surprise of the afternoon as, after he ran 2nd on 6th Feb, in my opinion he'd been harshly treated by the handicapper in being raised 10lb to OR120. I also did not think he'd drift to 7/1 as he was 5's in the morning with only one bookie and 9/2 or 4/1 with the others, as such he did not even look a worthwhile eachway wager in the morning. He stays 3-mile well (he beat Barafundle at 3-mile over hurdles on 29th December) and in carrying 11st 12lb to victory in this, I reckon he can be followed NTO. Emperor's Choice was on the "cusp" of being a selection, but his morning odds were 2/1 and even tho' he started at 9/4 it looked too competitive a race on paper and I was hoping for 3/1. Emperor's Choice heads for the Festival and the 4-mile chase there, where he should run well.
 
Today, there are a couple of horses from my alert list running. One is FOX RUN in the 2:10 at Taunton, but he's already odds-on and won't be a wager for me. The other is BUCK MULLIGAN in the 3:30 at Ludlow, a 3-mile handicap chase. Currently at 6/1 with Bet365 (he's 11/2 with most other bookmakers) that to me is a fair price. Both Pearlysteps and Politeo will find this trip beyond their best, and Ballyoliver (who has been a wager of mine for his last 2 runs) is on a recovery mission today having been taken off my alert list. Nobody really knows what sort of mood Zarrafakt will arrive in; if he's on form then he could take some beating, but it is a big "if". The one who could give my selection most to do is the novice chaser Grove Pride. He won his debut chase over 3-mile at Exeter, but has been very highly tried since. Early money for him has resulted in his odds being cut from 12/1 to 7/1, but he does need to show that debut win was not a one-off. This 3-mile trip could stretch BUCK MULLIGAN, so I am loathe to take less than 6/1 as at 5th odds there is the "saver" facility of an eachway wager. But, he ran so well when last seen in November that I reckon he'll be hard to beat. I've questioned his stamina, but he did win over 3m2f here at Ludlow in a chase way back in December 2010 in his debut chase as a novice.
 
Selection:
Ludlow 3:30, BUCK MULLIGAN, ½pt eachway 11/2 (Bet365, 5th odds a place 1,2,3 BOG)
 
Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do – that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember – gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Wednesday, 27 February 2013

Patience: the punters secret weapon

When horseracing gets a bit scrappy mid-week with cards consisting of small fields in lower-grade handicaps and 12+ runner maiden hurdle races, it is time to take a back step and refrain from having a wager. Patience is the punters secret weapon and it is very easy to fitter away hard-won profits on silly ill-thought-out wagers just because the money is burning a hole in your pocket and the thrill of your latest winner is starting to wane.
Yesterday, I thought I had found a value wager and, in fact, I had. My selection THE MUSICAL GUY had an SP of 3/1 for the novice chase, but readers of the blog were able to take the 11/2 available in the morning. As I wrote yesterday, in my opinion the front-3 in the betting (Howard's Legacy, The Musical Guy and Volador) should have been about 5/2 for the race and, as it happened, the market basically agreed. Howard's Legacy was sent-off the 2/1 joint-fav (from 11/8 in the morning) having drifted to 11/4 at one stage, and the other 2/1 joint-fav was Volador (from 11/4). Unfortunately for my selection, eventual winner Howard's Legacy had too much tactical speed approaching 3-out and gained a winning advantage. He needed it though, as on the uphill run-in at Leicester he virtually emptied-out and he probably would have lost the race within another 100 yards.
The first of my handicap appraisal supplements was sent out yesterday. Those who have donated a minimum of £8 to receive the Cheltenham Festival Bulletin will receive these supplements, which won't be posted on the blog. If you want the Bulletin, and the supplements (the 2nd one is under preparation) and drafts of my daily blog pages on the evening before racing during the week of the Cheltenham Festival, then do yourself a favour and make a minimum donation of £8.00.
No selections today. I've been looking thru' the entries in today's Weekender and there appear to be some interesting opportunities coming up in the next few days, and a couple on Saturday look likely candidates for a wager. Patience is the punters secret weapon!
Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do – that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember – gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Tuesday, 26 February 2013

Festival Handicaps under review

Last week, we learned that a record 1,145 entries have been received for the 11 festival handicaps. Over the past few days, I've been reviewing the entries and this evening I'll be sending out the first of my handicap appraisals to those who have made a donation and have already received a copy of my Cheltenham Festival Bulletin. Remember, in addition to the handicap appraisals, those who receive the bulletin will also receive drafts of my daily blog pages on the evening before racing during the week of the Cheltenham Festival so that they can take advantage of any early value that I spot before anyone else, all for just a minimum donation of £8.00.

I'm planning on being at the Festival on the Thursday of the meeting as this is my favourite day of the meeting with 3 championship races in the World Hurdle, Ryanair, and Jewson (novice) Chase; and 3 tremendous handicaps in the Pertemps Hurdle Final, Festival (chase) Plate and the Kim Muir Chase. It's likely I'll be in the Winged Ox bar so, if your there, that's where you'll find me.

There are a couple of interesting meetings today at Leicester and Catterick. The race today that catches my eye is the novice chase at Leicester at 4:00 over 2m7f & 110yards. This brings together some interesting novice chasers and could prove influential in the coming weeks. The hot favourite for the race is Howard's Legacy sent out by Venetia Williams (it's her only runner at Leicester). The reason he's hot-fav this afternoon is that he chased home Saturday's Racing Plus Chase winner Opening Batsmen when they met LTO in January. That looks good form on paper. However, I don't think he'll has things all his own way today as there are a couple in this who could give him something to think about. Trainer Phil Hobbs also sends only one horse to Leicester today and that's Volador. This horse was the best hurdler in the field achieving a rating of OR137, and his 2 chase runs to date have been fair as they've been run on ground he probably didn't appreciate. He was a very consistent 3-mile hurdler and today's good-to-soft ground will suit him well and we should see some improvement today. He's not the one I like the most tho', that's THE MUSICAL GUY. This half-bro' to Hello Bud is also having only his 3rd chase race today and, after a promising debut on "good" ground, he hated the heavy LTO. He was always going to be a chaser, so the fact he didn't excel as a hurdler is not detrimental to his future. Howard's Legacy only raced over 3-mile as a hurdler once and was 3rd, and that run was sandwiched between 2 wins over 2m4f on soft ground. As a chaser, he raced over 3-mile at Ludlow on 19th December and he'd every chance before making a mistake 4-out and then slowing quickly after 3-out and falling at the next. In my opinion, he does not have the stamina for a 3-mile chase whereas it is likely that both Volador and THE MUSICAL GUY do. What I particularly like about THE MUSICAL GUY is that he chased home Godsmejudge on his chasing debut and that horse has gone on to win again since and is now rated 16lbs higher on OR139. At odds of 11/2 he's easily worth a small ½pt win wager. Volador is also likely to improve today, but his odds of 11/4 do not offer value in my opinion as I'd have all 3 (Howard's Legacy, The Musical Guy and Volador) on about 5/2 for this race. Howard's Legacy at 11/8 is far too short.

Selection:
Leicester 4:00, THE MUSICAL GUY, ½pt win 11/2 (Betfred, BOG)

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do – that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember – gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad



Sunday, 24 February 2013

Close to having a winning hand


We came close to having a good day yesterday as both selections ran as well as I expected them to, but both met an improving and better handicapped rival who beat them into the runners-up spot. RENARD ran his usual, solid race, he never seems to run a bad one, he’s very consistent. Unfortunately, he met a good one in Ballygarvey who seems to have found his trip at 2-miles despite having won 2 of his 4 previous chases at 2m4f. This was his best yet by a long way and he won with plenty in hand. He was already on my alert list after winning at Lingfield in a good time, but he should be on everyone’s now and looks a 150+ chaser in the making. Still, RENARD earned the place money and won’t be raised more than a couple of pounds for this effort.

At Kempton, ROLLING ACES very nearly won the day. Firtst tho’, Wyck Hill and I’ve been a supporter of this horse since he won his 2nd-chase as a novice and he’s won me good money, but as I wrote yesterday, he looked weighted-up to his rating on OR142. He’s reported to have cut a hind leg but, I think he’s going to want soft/heavy to show his best as they were going too quick for him and putting his jumping under pressure a long way out.  As I wrote yesterday, ROLLING ACES looks a star in the making, and this run confirms that his form so far is top-class.  I rate yesterday’s run at 155 which puts him on the fringes of being a Gold Cup horse. He met and beat the winner yesterday. Opening Batsmen, on Boxing Day by 11 lengths so, on 9lb worse terms (12lb if you include his jockeys 3lb claim on Boxing Day) then he should still have held the winner – just. However, since that Boxing Day meeting, Opening Batsmen has run and won at Wincanton over 2m5f, and that run probably brought him on a couple more pounds.

On the day it was a 0.85pt loss on the 2pts staked, however followers of my tweets had a grand time as I sent out 2 tweets recommending wagers on SAFRAN DE COTTE at 12:08pm and GRANDIOSO at 12:14pm.

For SAFRAN DE COTTE, I wrote: “I’m surprised SDC has drifted to 5/2 for the Chepstow 2:10 as he was too short earlier to include as a tip on my blog”. Regular readers will know I do not recommend wagers at odd less than 9/4 and when I wrote my blog SAFRAN DE COTTE was 15/8 and I expected him to start at 13/8 and win, so I did not write about him on my blog (time is my editor-in-chief). SAFRAN DE COTTE duly won at 11/4 (remarkable) by 4-lengths!

For GRANDIOSO, I wrote:  “If someone offers me 9/4 about Grandioso for the Kempton 2:40, then I’m going in with a maximum wager”. Sure enough, the weight of money on the fav Molotof pushed the odds on GRANDIOSO out to 9/4 and he became a 2pt (maximum) wager for me.  Sure enough, he won this race well holding a clear advantage at the final fence and staving-off a late challenge.

I know twitter readers made the most of these selections as some have made a donation from their winning wagers. As they were not posted on the blog, I won’t use them in calculating my profit/loss for the day – but, as I wrote here this week, my integrity is my most valued possession. I make no false claims, what you read here is what you get. If you don’t want to donate, that’s entirely up to you, but don’t expect this blog to be here forever.

Those who have donated for the Cheltenham Bulletin should receive a handicap update in the next couple of days based on the entries posted on Friday. Weights are released on the 28th February.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Saturday, 23 February 2013

Rolling Aces to play his hand


Not a great day at the office yesterday as all 3 selections ran below expectations, and 3pts were lost. Spanish Arch at Sandown was perhaps the first indication that those horses that plug on thru’ soft/heavy ground can’t cope when the ground dries as they have not change of gear. He ran a solid race but may need to step up to 2m6f+ on good-to-soft or quicker. Ringa Bay was given a poor ride by his amateur rider, Mr York, whose style left something to be desired. As for Charingworth, the wrong tactics were employed as the front-3 went off very quick and the eventual winner had 20-lb in-hand. Charingworth would never have won but, had he been closer to the pace, he probably would’ve stayed on for a place.

Onto today, and Newcastle is abandoned due to snow, so just the meetings at Kempton and Chepstow. First Chepstow, as I think I’ve found a decent wager in the 3:20 there. Venetia Williams has not been sending out the winners in the past 2-weeks so she’s reigned in her entries this weekend and has just 2 running at Chepstow, including RENARD. This horse never runs a bad race, loves 2-mile chasing, and the good-to-soft ground will suit. The horse hated the heavy ground LTO, but the time before that he ran a cracker at Newbury to be 3rd when meeting a handicap blot in Ulck Du Lin. A course and distance winner, odds of 7/1 are far too generous in a race where it looks like only the fav Dunowen Point  is the danger.

At Kempton, the big race is the Racing Plus Chase and I think ROLLING ACES at 9/2 is too big. I’ve been a supporter of Wyck Hil since he won his 2nd-chase as a novice and he’s won me good money, but he looks weighted-up to his rating on OR142. He may be worth a few more pounds, but he is unlikely to top 150. ROLLING ACES on the other hand looks a star in the making, and his win at Newbury in December (I tipped him that day) looks top-form now. He is on the fringes of being a Gold Cup horse and if he continues to improve he’ll be OR160 this time next year, if not sooner.

Selections:
Chepstow 3:20, RENARD, ½pt eachway @ 13/2 (William Hill, 5th odds a place 1,2,3 BOG)
Kempton 3:50, ROLLING ACES, 1pt win @ 9/2 (Stan James, BOG)
Total = 2pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Friday, 22 February 2013

Festival Handicap entries published

In today's Racing Post, the record 1,145 entries have been received for the 11 festival handicaps are published. Now the work begins!
I'll be sending out an appraisal with my thoughts on the handicaps to those readers of the blog who've made a donation of at least £8 and received a copy of my Cheltenham Festival Bulletin for 2013.  If you want the handicap appraisals – and I won't be publishing them on the blog – then you'll have to make a donation.  If you make a donation, then I will send out the bulletin – pdf version – to your email address in the evening following receipt and it should be in your in-box before 8pm. Remember, in addition to the handicap appraisals, those who receive the bulletin will also receive drafts of my daily blog pages on the evening before racing during the week of the Cheltenham Festival so that they can take advantage of any early value that I spot before anyone else, all for just a minimum donation of £8.00 If that's not value I don't know what is.

Onto today's horseracing, and we've two meetings at Sandown and Warwick over the jumps, although there is a 10:30 inspection at Sandown once the covers have been removed from the course. Let's hope racing goes ahead. My old-mate CIRCUS OF DREAMS runs again at Sandown, and readers of the blog will know I tipped him eachway when he ran 2nd @ 66/1 at Kempton 2-weeks ago. He's up 2lb for that run and that looks fair enough to me as I expect he's a lot better than OR117 when he's on tip-top form. What I liked about him LTO was when he made a near calamitous error 5-out, he picked himself up and flew the next fence by which time he'd made-up the ground he'd lost. His jumping is patchy, and this race (Sandown 4:30) looks tougher than that race to me so while he was worth an eachway wager at 40/1 (SP 66/1), today at 11/2 he's not – there's no value in him. There are a couple that do look value and they are RINGA BAY @ 6/1 and Imperial Circus @ 17/2. With Imperial Circus, today is his last chance for me as a chaser. He looked promising as a hurdler and I expected that promise to transfer to his chasing but, perhaps, the heavy ground he's been racing on has been his undoing. He ran his best race this season when 3rd at Sandown over an extended 3-mile on good-to-soft and a repeat of that on today's similar ground should see him in the mix. RINGA BAY  is unexposed as he's done most of his running in hunter-chases, but he has been running well in regulation races this season with his 3rd LTO at Sandown (had no chance with the winner) looking his best yet. He meets Barlow (4th in that race) on 1lb worse terms but he stayed-on past him LTO and Barlow looks to lack the stamina for this trip. I think Sandown's "railway fences" will be the undoing of Circus Of Dreams, so I'm having a small eachway wager on RINGA BAY @ 6/1.

The handicap hurdle at Sandown at 4:00 over 2m4f looks another wagering opportunity. I've been waiting for SPANISH ARCH to find a race since he won at Warwick in early December and tho' he ran well at Ascot LTO, the heavy ground didn't suit him that day. He's up 12lb since that win at Warwick but I think he's up to that hike in the handicap, and he's Charlie Longsdon's only runner at Sandown today. At odds of 15/2 (Bet Victor, ¼ odds a place 1,2,3) he's worth an eachway wager. One who may do well at long odds in this is Caroline Keevil's Moorland Sunset @ 18/1 (Bet Victor). He was only a length behind Spanish Arch LTO (made a mistake at the final flight) and is a 1lb better-off today. He was raced over 3-mile the time before that (didn't stay), and highly tried before that in a Class 2 h'cap hurdle. He doesn't seem to have any gears, so I can't see him winning this, but he could stay-on into 3rd.

At Warwick, I was going to advise a wager on GORGEHOUS LLIEGE in the 3:15 but he's at best "evens" in the market, so the betting forecast of 5/2 in the Racing Post was way off the mark. Regulars will know that I don't advise wagers at odds less than 9/4. Instead, I think I've found a decent wager in the 3:50 in CHARINGWORTH @ 12/1 (Bet Victor, ⅕ odds a place 1,2,3). Current 3/1 race-fav is David Pipe's French import Ballynagour, but this is his UK debut and he'll find this a challenge. Pipe also has Problematic Tic, but this horse wants ground much better than today's soft (heavy in places). Frisco Depot @ 6/1 looks fair if he lives up to his reputation, but he's yet to show his best in the UK. Niceonefrankie is improving with every run this season without getting his head in front. I can see him running well for Venetia Williams but the ground will be a bit too soft for him too. Golden Chieftain and Dashing George will both need to be at their best to be involved in this, and so we come to CHARINGWORTH. He goes well on soft, but also ran a cracker LTO on heavy at Ayr just last week. The 10yo has been lightly raced this season, and that run could have him super-fit for this. A repeat of that run will see him in the frame at least, and if he improves a few pounds then he's going to be hard to beat. There is potential for a front runner like Dashing George, or Little Josh, to break-away early and try to make all, but Warwick when it is soft/heavy is unforgiving ground and jockeys will need to measure the pace well.

Selections:
Sandown 4:00, SPANISH ARCH, ½pt eachway @ 15/2 (Bet Victor, ¼ odds a place 1,2,3)
Sandown 4:30, RINGA BAY, ½pt eachway @ 6/1 (Bet365, ⅕ odds a place 1,2,3).
Warwick 3:50, CHARINGWORTH, ½pt eachway @ 12/1 (Bet Victor, ⅕ odds a place 1,2,3).
Total = 3pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do – that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember – gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad



Thursday, 21 February 2013

Preparations for the Cheltenham Festival

The past few days I've been looking through the form book of recent results putting together a shortlist of likely contenders for the handicaps at Cheltenham next month, and it's a good job I did as its been revealed that a record 1,145 entries have been received for the 11 festival handicaps! There is no way anyone could go through the form on that lot and so preparing a shortlist of likely candidates is the only realistic way forward. I'll be sending out an appraisal with my thoughts on the handicaps to those readers of the blog who've made a donation of at least £8 and received a copy of my Cheltenham Festival Bulletin for 2013.
If you want the handicap appraisals - and I won't be publishing them on the blog - then you'll have to make a donation.  If you make a donation, then I will send out the bulletin - pdf version - to your email address in the evening following receipt and it should be in your in-box before 8pm. Remember, in addition to the handicap appraisals, those who receive the bulletin will also receive drafts of my daily blog pages on the evening before racing during the week of the Cheltenham Festival so that they can take advantage of any early value that I spot before anyone else. Some horseracing tipsters are charging £25 for a Cheltenham Festival preview booklet; some tipsters are charging £50 for a preview booklet and email updates - you can obtain my festival bulletin, plus my handicap appraisals AND drafts of my daily blog pages on the evening before racing during the week of the Cheltenham Festival, all for just a minimum donation of £8.00 If that's not value I don't know what is. My record is here on the blog, which I've been writing since March 2010.
Every selection, every result, every point of profit and loss in the 3 year life of this blog is documented - there is nothing hidden. I know there are some of you out there who have been with me almost from the start, and there are some who have only come across me recently. Hopefully, you will all have the same impression of me gained through this blog; that I'm genuine, honest, that the opinion's I give are my own, and that my most valuable possession is my integrity.
Since I've kept records of my wagers (and I've been recording the results of my betting since my mid-20's, that's nearly 30 years), this jumps season has been, without doubt, the most successful and profitable of all. I'll put a spreadsheet of results for the season up on the blog as soon as I have time (all my spare time is taken up with preparation for Cheltenham at the moment), but I must be over 80pts ahead based on the money in my own betting bank.
Fingers crossed, as we all need a bit of luck along the way, and this year's Festival could be my best ever - though, it probably won't top 2009 when I was on Forpadydeplaster @ 9/1, Mikael D'Hagenet @ 4/1, Cooldine @ 3/1, then "super Thursday" with Kayf Aramis @ 25/1, Big Bucks @ 13/2, Character Building @ 25/1 plus, on Friday, Zaynar @ 5/1 - the Irish lads were singing that year, all right!.
Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad



Tuesday, 19 February 2013

Quiet day at the office

I was kicking myself for overlooking an obvious winning wager from my horse alerts yesterday. Regular followers and readers of the blog will know that on 6th February I put-up BILLY CUCKOO as a ½pt win selection. That day, the horse ran just as I expected, leading from the off and trying to make al but he lost the lead that day with barely 50 yards to run. Next day, I wrote that I thought he'd win a race, but we wouldn't get 5/1 about him next time. Well, he did win his next race when he won yesterday at Carlisle, and he won at an SP of 13/2.

Yesterday, when I was looking at the race, I wrote that he could be found out again by a better handicapped horse, and he very nearly was found as he only just prevailed by a neck having done as much as he could to get beat by idling badly in the run-in. As with his run LTO, I didn't forecast the betting market well enough as I thought he'd start shorter than 5/1 and wouldn't be an eachway proposition, especially as there was market weakness for the disappointing fav Armedanddangerous and for the 2nd-fav Full Of Joy. My selection in the race, ET MAINTENANT did not run well and probably finds this 2m4f trip a bit short nowadays.

My other selection in the earlier race MY BOY PADDY lost his rider at the 1st fence, so we have no idea how he would have fared. I couldn't say he'd have won as the winner, Emperor's Choice the 15/8 fav, and runner-up Sydney Paget pulled well clear of the field in fighting out the finish.
There is nothing running from my personal alert list today, so I'm not making a selection.

Now that the Cheltenham Festival Bulletin is written, and If you want a copy then press the donate button on this page and donate at least £8 (you can donate more if you like, as the advice I provide in this blog is well worth an additional contribution), I am making shortlists for all the handicaps. The intention is to issue these to purchasers of the bulletin so that they have a head start in assessing the handicaps at the Festival.

Since releasing the bulletin to pre-purchasers last Saturday morning, sales have been going well and are anticipated to easily top those of last March, which was the first time I'd issued a bulletin via the blog. A good percentage of those who took the bulletin last year have returned again, and new "donators" are outnumbering the regular donators by about 3 to 1.

If you make a donation of £8.00, I will send out the bulletin - pdf version - to your email address in the evening following receipt (I send them all out at the same time) and it should be in your in-box before 8pm. Remember, those who receive the bulletin will also receive drafts of my daily blog pages on the evening before racing during the week of the Cheltenham Festival so that they can take advantage of any early value that I spot before anyone else.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad



Monday, 18 February 2013

Cheltenham Festival Bulletin now available

On Saturday morning, prior to the day's racing, I sent out my newly completed Cheltenham Festival Bulletin to all those who had made a donation in advance. Copies of the bulletin are being sent out daily to new donators and, so far, sales are well up on last year with over 60% of recent donators being new donators to the blog. A big thank you to those who have received a copy of the bulletin.

If you want a copy then press the donate button on this page and donate at least £8 (you can donate more if you like, as the advice I provide in this blog is well worth an additional contribution) and I will send out the bulletin - pdf version - to your email address this evening.

Those who receive the bulletin will also receive drafts of my daily blog pages on the evening before racing during the week of the Cheltenham Festival so that they can take advantage of any early value that I spot before anyone else.

If you are reading this blog then you know that I take my horseracing seriously and that I make it pay. Since 1st November 2012, I reckon I'm in profit by over 80pts to recommended stakes, and even if you've followed this blog only since 1st January then you are well ahead. I make a point of targeting Saturdays as that's the day most people have a wager and if you've followed my advised Saturday wagers this year (since 1st January) then you'd be still be well ahead:
5th January: 2.50pts staked, 10.25pts returned = 7.75pts profit
12th January: 2.50pts staked, nil return = 2.50pts lost
19th January: no racing
26th January: 4.00pts staked, 12.40pts return = 8.40pts profit
2nd February: 3.50pts staked, 9.00pts return = 5.50pts profit
9th February, 2.00pts staked, nil return = 2.00pts lost
16th February, 4.50pts staked, 7.50pts return = 3.00pts profit
Total Saturday profit in 2013 = 20.15pts on an outlay of 19.00pts

There is a decent meeting at Carlisle today and it looks like there is a potential opportunity there for a speculative eachway double. I don't normally go in for doubles, but the odds on these 2 horses make an eachway double attractive. The 3:40 at Carlisle is a 3m2f, Class 2, handicap chase and the market has Venetia William's Emperor's Choice as the 9/4 fav. I like this horse, and it is on my alert list so I'm expecting a good run. Thing is, there are a couple in this who could well give this horse something to think about, namely Markadam and My Boy Paddy. Markadam loves Carlisle and won here LTO, but he's been raised 12lb for that win and that may enough to stop his progress. It is MY BOY PADDY who looks the best value, as he is the only runner today at Carlisle for Twiston-Davies and the only ride for his son, Sam. MY BOY PADDY found the trip at Bangor LTO over 3m6f a bit too much and this drop today to 3m2f should suit him. He will handle the heavy ground too, and for a 9yo he hasn't had much racing and there's likely to be improvement in him.  At odds of 8/1, he is likely to be in the 1st-3 and may even sneak a win if luck goes his way.

In the next race, I am tempted to have another wager on Billy Cuckoo who I supported when he ran last week and bravely tried to make all till losing the lead in the final 100 yards. This slight drop in trip will suit him, but he's been raised 4lb for that run LTO and he's not really been improving in his recent runs, merely running consistently in my opinion. As such, he could be found out again by a better handicapped horse, and another in the field who has also been running consistently well and seems to have been overlooked is ET MAINTENANT. Currently at 11/1 (William Hill), he's been campaigned over longer trips than this 2m4f recently, but he was 3rd in this race last year on heavy ground off OR112, and he's on OR110 today yet comes here in form as good as (if not better) than last year.

Selections:
Carlisle 3:40, MY BOY PADDY @ 8/1, & Carlisle 4:10, ET MAINTENANT @ 11/1
½pt eachway double with William Hill

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad



Sunday, 17 February 2013

Another winning Saturday and 3pts banked


This year’s Cheltenham Festival Bulletin got off to a cracking start with the way results played-out yesterday, and early purchasers are already sitting pretty with an advised antepost wager.

If you want a copy then press the donate button on this page and donate at least £8 (you can give more if you like, the advice I provide in this blog is well worth it) and I will send out the bulletin.

I was at Ascot races yesterday, and a great day it was too. My first wager of the afternoon was on HOUBLON DES OBEAUX @ 4/1 as I did not think he was far away in ability from the odds-on fav ROCKY CREEK. A few of these novices were lt down by their jumping with Real Milan blundering at the 4th fence4 and losing all chance (was pulled-up), and Tour Des Champs hitting 4-out hard and nearing losing his jockey in the process. That left Houblon Des Obeaux and Rocky Creek fighting out the finish and they both jumped very well under pressure and at speed. Altho’ Rocky Creek won, he did not win by much. Post-race, Paul Nicholls hinted that Rocky Creek may be saved for a Hennessey tilt in the autumn and so miss Cheltenham next month. As for Houblon Des Obeaux, he looks worthy of support at the Cheltenham Festival whatever target he takes in.

Next up at 2:40, my selection BRACKLOON HIGH ran a stinker and his jumping was indifferent. Some he jumped well keeping up with the pace for the first couple of miles, till those jumps he hit hard took their toll and he faded. I think with a better round of jumping he’d have been involved as the overall performace of the others wasn’t up to much. Yes, I did underestimate the winner Vino Griego, but Cappa Bleu merely ran to his OR145 rating in my opinion. 

The performance of the afternoon at Ascot was from CUE CARD. I placed my wager on-course with rails bookmaker Geoff Banks as he is also a user of Twitter (see the link to his site on this page). I thought CUE CARD ran a cracker of a race. Yes, he did make an error mid-race, but overall his jumping was sound and the pace he set was taxing. The runner-up Captain Chris was put under a lot of pressure and, as such, he misjudged the 2nd-last fence and lost his chance. If he was good enough then he’d have jumped the fence at speed, but he wasn’t. On this form, CUE CARD looks like being hard to beat in the Ryanair, it looks his race to lose.

At Haydock, I was disappointed that MONBEG DUDE did not start racing until the final half mile, when he made up a lot of ground passing beaten horses to come from last into 3rd place. He looks to be racing to his mark of OR138. Not so the winner, WELL REFRESHED, who has improved tremendously in the past few months and still looks like having more to come. Connections reckon he’s done enough for now and won’t go for Cheltenham.  I reckon he’s a 150+ horse on this run and he may go up another 7-10lb for this win to OR139 which would put him right in the mix for the Hennessey Gold Cup this autumn and then the Grand National next year.

So, it was another winning Saturday for supporters and followers of the blog, with 3pts profit on 4½pts staked thanks to CUE CARD.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Saturday, 16 February 2013

CUE CARD to show who's boss


There has not been a blog with selections this week as I have been concentrating on producing my Cheltenham Festival Bulletin, and pdf copies of it were sent out by email this morning to all those who had donated at least £8 to the blog since 1st November 2012. If you want a copy then press the donate button on this page and donate at least £8 (you can give more if you like, the advice I provide in this blog is well worth it) and I will send out the bulletin.

It is a busy morning this morning as I am going to Ascot for what looks like a tremendous days racing there. I was generously provided with a couple of tickets by an avid reader and supporter of the blog. So, I am leaving to drive to Ascot at about 10:30am – let’s get on!

At Ascot , just about the entire field for the 2:05 are on my alert list. On form ROCKY CREEK is the best horse in the race on known form based on his win LTO. However, it was a facile victory whereas if you compare that race to the one HOUBLON DES OBEAUX ran in there may not be much between them today. HOUBLON DES OBEAUX will love this 3-mile on soft ground and, at 4/1, he’s carrying my money for a ½pt wager.

Next up at 2:40, there is a tricky handicap chase. I think Vino Griego was flattered LTO to win so easily and he’ll find it tougher today. Cappa Bleu couldn’t win this last year off OR147 and is just 2lb lighter today, his target is the Grand National. The two I like are BRACKLOON HIGH and The Rainbow Hunter. The latter is finally starting to show his novice chase promise, but he’ll need to improve today to win this. However, the 8yo BRACKLOON HIGH met a well handicapped one LTO on ground that was too heavy for him. It’s only soft ground today (not heavy) and he’s been dropped a 1lb by the handicapper. Odds of 9/1 look fair value for an eachway wager.

Finally at Ascot, it has to be CUE CARD in the 3:50. I love the bones of this horse and he’s done me well over the past couple of seasons as a chaser. The ground and trip are no problem and today he will show that he is a 170+ horse. Captain Chris was flattered in the King George in my opinion as the pace in the race collapsed half a mile from home. I don’t rate Finian’s Rainbow and this is a new trip for him, and Somersby has a lot of ground to make up based on his LTO run. At 11/4, I reckon it is the bet of the day and it’s 2pts win for me.

At Haydock, I will not abandon MONBEG DUDE who has won twice for me now as a blog selection. His jumping was appalling LTO yet he still won coming from well off the pace. If his jumping has improved then he will defy his new mark of OR138, so I’m on for ½pt win at 7/1. This race will be a helluva stamina test and it is likely only those “in the van” will be there are the end, one of which I reckon will be VIKING BLOND @ 20/1. The horse has done nothing wrong this season, and ran a brave race LTO, beaten only by a well-handicapped and improving horse. I’m in for a small eachway wager.

That’s it for today, have to get to the races – best of luck!
Selections:
Ascot 2:05, HOUBLON DES OBEAUX, ½ptwin @ 4/1 (available generally)
Ascot 2:40, BRACKLOON HIGH, ½pt eachway @ 9/1 (Bet365 - ¼ odds 1,2,3 BOG)
Ascot 3:50, CUE CARD, 2pts win @ 11/4 (Paddy Power & Hills both BOG)
Haydock 2:55, MONBEG DUDE, ½pt win @ 7/1 (Stan James, BOG)
Haydock 2:55, VIKING BLOND, ¼pt each way @ 20/1 (Stan James, ¼ odds 1,2,3 BOG)
Total = 4.50pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Thursday, 14 February 2013

Cheltenham Festival Bulletin nearing completion

Apologies for not producing a blog this week.

I have been using every spare moment to work on completing my Cheltenham Festival Bulletin for this weekend and it is now COMPLETE!
Those who have already made a donation of at least £8 since 1st November 2012 will have received their copy on Saturday 16th February.

This year, I will require a minimum donation of £8 for a pdf copy of the bulletin to be sent out by email.

Here's a snippet of what to expect as the following was contained within last year's bulletin...

Champion Hurdle: ROCK ON RUBY was advised @ 8/1 (without the fav) and WON

National Hunt Challenge Cup for Amateur Riders: "the highest rated horse (Official Ratings) is a good starting point", and highest-rated TEAFORTHREE made-all and WON @ 5/1

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle: "look for a lightly-raced, LTO winner.... ... If it's a filly, more the better". Only 3 fillies went to post, one of which was UNE ARTISTE who won @ 40/1

Festival Plate (was Byrne Group) Handicap Chase: "whatever (David) Pipe sends for this has to be considered", and his SALUT FLO duly WON @ 9/2

Those who receive the bulletin will also receive drafts of my daily blog pages on the evening before racing during the Festival week so that they can get on before anyone else.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.

If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.

Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad



Sunday, 10 February 2013

Cheltenham Festival markets all shook up

They call it Super Saturday and what a Saturday it was!

Some cracking racing was on view, with some breath-taking performances. Unfortunately, I was unable to select a winning wager on the day. My wagers were solely on the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury where my selections ran unplaced with Cash And Go coming home 7th with Princeton Plains in 8th. I was most disappointed with Princeton Plains as this time he was held-up and he probably would have been in the 1st-5 (and earned the place money) had he been more prominently ridden as he was making ground up in the final half mile. The performance of this race tho. was from the winner MY TENT OR YOURS who won with what looked to be nearly a stone in hand. There was plenty of support all week for this horse, and my friends in Ireland even emailed me about the chance he held, so confidence was clearly high - and it was justified. The odds of 9/4 (Paddy Power) about him winning the Supreme Novices Hurdle look good in my opinion, tho' this year looks like it could be a vintage year for the novice hurdlers.

I managed to talk myself out of nominating WISHFUL THINKING as a selection yesterday as I thought the trip may be on the short side for him, despite being the best horse on ratings in the race. When I was watching the racing yesterday, just before the off his odds on Betfair touched 6.0 - 6.2 (or 5/1) and I had a tenner on for old-times-sake.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup market was giving a shake-up with SILVINIACO CONTI winning the Denman Chase at Newbury in some style, and then over in Ireland SIR DES CHAMPS confirming his superiority over Flemenstar at 3-mile in the Hennessey Gold Cup at Leopardstown. After yesterday, I am surprised that Bobs Worth is still the favorite for the Gold Cup at 3/1 as, on strict interpretation of the form from his win in the Hennessey handicap at Newbury, he wasn't the best horse in that race, TIDAL BAY was. The horse I was disappointed with was Weird Al in the Denman as, for a horse who was just 7-lengths behind Silviniaco Conti in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last November, he should have been in the 1st-3 yesterday. Maybe his issue is the Newbury course and not the ground, as he's coped well on soft ground before yesterday winning on it on 4 occasions. Weird Al ran poorly at Newbury on his previous visit there for the 2010 Hennessey won by Diamond Harry and, yesterday, was a similar poor performance.

I'm spending the rest of today writing the last of my Cheltenham Festival Bulletin which should be ready next Sunday. I was hoping to have it ready early enough to have the bulletin printed locally, but I think I am going to have to rely on a pdf version emailed to purchasers, the same as last year.
All the best from Wayward Lad

Saturday, 9 February 2013

2nd @ 66/1 - you'll find no fav's tipped here!


A great result for the blog yesterday which, with a bit of luck, may have been an almighty result. CIRCUS OF DREAMS, advised at ¼pt eachway, stayed –on strong to take 2nd place at 66/1 in the 3-mile handicap chase. He ran exactly as I expected, altho’ his jumping was a bit suspect and had he not crashed thru’ the fence 5-out and come to a virtual stop then I reckon he may well have won. The horse picked himself up from that bad mistake and flew the next fence. I was a bit miffed as I had £10 on at an average of 165 (£5 @ 160, and £5 @ 170) with Betfair, plus another £5 @ 18.0 on the place-only market. Not a bad result in the end for me, but I would have been a lot happier with a win! That result gave the blog a profit on the day of 2.50pt profit on the day as the other selection didn’t win.

You don’t get favorites selected on this blog, so if you are looking to put your hard-earned cash on some short-priced hyped-up rumour from the bar near the stables then you are in the wrong place. My selections are based on form, form, and more form. They’ve done the business on the track and, in my opinion, they are favourably treated and the market has got it wrong. Simple. They don’t all win, or make a fair return, but these are not whispers but backed-up with genuine opinion – mine!

I am putting the final touches to my Cheltenham Festival Bulletin and I’m hoping to have it ready before next Sunday.

Onto the horseracing for today, and we have some great racing to get stuck into. At Newbury, the Denman Chase at 2:25 will answer a few questions of the likes of The Giant Bolster, Menorah, and Weird Al. I think the soft ground won’t be a help to The Giant Bolster and so I reckon Menorah should be the 2nd-fav to the odds-on Silviniaco Conti. If he stays this trip, and there is no reason he won’t as he won well over 2m5f LTO on heavy, then he has the class to push the fav. Weird Al will love the ground (he’s won 3 from 6 on soft) and he will stay this trip too. As such, I’d have him a lot shorter than 20/1. I don’t think Silviniaco Conti is an odds-on chance, so there could be value in both Menorah and Weird Al. Perhaps put those three in 3 x “swingers” on the Tote.

WISHFUL THINKING is the best horse at the weights in the “Super Saturday” Chase at 3:00, but I’m put off by the fact he’s only won once from 8 starts at about 2-mile, and he much better with an extra few furlongs. I feel that my old mate French Opera is not the horse he once was, and both the Nicholls horses – Shooters Wood and Edgardo Sol need to find improvement to take this, altho’ Edgardo Sol needs to find only a few pounds. This is a no bet race for me.

I’m not a fan of these huge handicap hurdles races, but the Betfair Hurdle has a couple that catch my eye.  I think CASH AND GO will end this season a lot higher than OR145 and his 2nd in the Greatwood at Cheltenham is great form. At odds of 9/1, there is not too much value in him, tho’  Bet365 and Paddy Power pay 5-places to ¼ odds, and he’s worth a small eachway wager. He lost his rider Barry Geraghty LTO in the Ladbroke Hurdle in December and if you look back to my blog of that day, I tipped PRINCETON PLAINS at eachway. That horse ran a cracker and but for taking a wide line into the straight and losing a few lengths in the process, he would have been possibly 3rd that day. Even so, he was an honourable 6th  and yet he's been dropped 1lb by the handicapper to OR138. He’s also 40/1 with Bet365 and a few others. He’s worth a small eachway wager.

Over in Ireland today, it’s a big day with both the Hennessey Gold Cup and the Dr PJ Moriarty (Novice) Chase. The Hennessey, especially, could be a cracker of a race and have a huge influence on the Cheltenham Gold Cup as whatever wins this race will be – or should be – the fav for that race given that the current fav Bobs Worth may go to Cheltenham without a prep run and isn’t the best chaser on ratings anyway. Watch and learn.

Nothing takes my interest at Uttoxeter, but Warwick has a great meeting. Unfortunately, as I write, there is snow falling at the track and an inspection is planned for 11:00am. If racing does go ahead then I’ll be looking favourably on DRUMSHAMBO in the 2:05.

Selections:
Newbury 3:35, CASH AND GO, ½pt eachway @ 9/1 (Bet365 - ¼ odds 1,2,3,4,5 BOG)
Newbury 3:35, PRINCETON PLAINS, ½pt eachway @ 40/1 (Bet365 - ¼ odds 1,2,3,4,5 BOG)
Total = 2pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Friday, 8 February 2013

Trainers getting their final Festival prep runs in

We have another 3 jump race meetings today at Kempton, Bangor and Newcastle and trainers around the country are using these mid-week meetings to get a final prep run into their horses which they believe have a decent chance at the Cheltenham Festival. The typical winner of a race at the Festival comes into it off a break of 35 days from its previous run and, as of today, there are just 32 days to go till the Festival's opening day.

Unlike yesterday, there are a few running from my personal alert list and one or two look interesting. At Bangor, I'll be very surprised if MIDNIGHT APPEAL does not win the 3-mile hurdle at 2:35. Alan King has entered this for several races over the weekend and it looks like he's found an easy opportunity for this horse. There is support for the Rebecca Curtis horse Ofaolains Boy but she's had to put a 7lb claimer on as AP McCoy (who seems to ride just about all her winners) is at Kempton. Donald McCain has Dungeel entered and this horse is on a hat-trick, and he's tempting as Jason Maguire is in the saddle. As such, odds of 5/2 about MIDNIGHT APPEAL look fair, but not overly generous.

At Kempton, there are 2 from my personal alert list; ADIYNARA in the 1:10 and CHAMPION COURT in the 3:25. There is little chance of CHAMPION COURT being beaten as he has only 2 rivals in his race and he outclasses both, so that is a race for watching only as he is at long odds-on. ADIYNARA is more intesting, as he comes here fit from a win on the all-weather, which followed a couple of spins on the "sand" as he's not a heavy ground horse. Currently 4/1, there seems to be a lot of interest in Professeur Emery (4/1) and Thundering Home (6/1), together with Alan King's Franklino (5/1) and Evan Williams Islandmagee (5/1). As such, I'd hope for a bit more value in ADIYNARA before having a wager, and 11/2 would be the shortest odds I'll be taking.. If I can obtain 11/2, then I'll have a ½pt eachway.

Lastly, OVERYOU in the 3:00 at Newcastle is my final alert list runner today. He's cost me a few pennies this horse, having run 2nd on his last 2 runs.. Maybe those races were over trips too far for him and today's drop to 3-mile may well suit him as he last won over 2m7f at Kelso. Unfortunately, this looks tough race with a couple of LTO winners in it and it's heavy ground at Newcastle which will mean this is a right slog. Odds of just 6/1 are not good enough as I could only have an eachway wager in these conditions and 6/1 is not enough as he doesn't look a potential winner.

It looks like it's another "no bet" day for me unless I take a look at some other races, and there are several that catch my eye. At Kempton, COMEONGINGER - a half brother to Brindisi Breeze - in the 1:40 could upset the favorite. The dynamic duo Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh have only 2 horses running for them at Kempton and the other one, Domtaline, faces Champion Court in the 3:25. Walsh isn't at Kempton for a night out in London tonight and at 6/1 this horse is worth a speculative ½pt win wager (generally available).

Later at Kempton, the handicap chase at 4:00 looks interesting, especially as Pete The Feat dominates the betting. Remarkable as it may seem, but the last time Pete The Feat met CIRCUS OF DREAMS he was receiving 16lb (actually, it was 21lb as Pete The Feat was ridden by 5lb claimer), today he's giving CIRCUS OF DREAMS 22lb; that's 38lb turnaround. Now, I'm not stupid, Pete The Feat is a totally different horse to the one beaten at Lingfield some 14 months ago, but CIRCUS OF DREAMS isn't. In his next race he ran a cracker, virtually making all at Towcester in December 2011, after which he was off the track for 12 months before running well on his re-appearance at Leicester in December 2012. I reckon that run will have brought him on a lot and he'll enjoy the strong pace of today's race as he runs prominently. He's available at 40/1 and I honestly reckon that he's worth £5 eachway at those odds. This is purely speculative, as he may be outclassed, but I think you'll get a run for your money, as there seems to be very little depth to this race.

Selections:
Kempton 1:40, COMEONGINGER, ½pt win @ 6/1 (generally available)
Kempton 4:00, CIRCUS OF DREAMS, ¼pt eachway @ 40/1 (Boylesports, Sportingodds, 5th odds a place 1,2,3)
Total = 1pt staked

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad



Thursday, 7 February 2013

Close, but no cigar

What a great run from BILLY CUCKOO yesterday but, unfortunately, it was without success. I did say in my blog yesterday that BILLY CUCKOO should be 5/2 or less, and so I was amazed that he drifted from 9/2 out to 11/2 (was over 7.00 on Betfair before the off) before settling at an SP of 5/1. Had I known his odds would drift then I'd have advised an eachway wager. Hindsight..
The horse ran just as I expected, leading from the off and trying to make all. For a horse whose jumping was well criticised in the Racing Post, I thought his jumping was exemplary, bold even at times. As such, having set a strong pace throughout, he had this field off the bridle a long way out with only the eventual winner looking capable of going with him. He jumped the last fence 3-lengths ahead but Carlisle has a stiff uphill finish and that did for him on the run-in as he lost the lead with barely 50 yards to run. He'll win a race, without a doubt, but we won't get 5/1 about him next time.

At Ludlow, GRANDIOSO won very easily and perhaps I was a bit too cautious in my assessment yesterday. However, followers of the blog will know that I don't advise wagers at odds less than 9/4 and it's unlikely that anyone would have obtained 9/4 about him. He opened at 2/1 before setting-off with an SP of 7/4.

Considering there are 3 meetings today at Huntingdon, Doncaster and Taunton, there is not a single horse from my personal alert list running. I endeavour to restrict my wagers and, as such, my advice in this blog to horses from my personal alert list as those have been identified by me as being most likely to be under-estimated by the handicapper and therefore running at an advantage. There will always be tomorrow.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.

Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad



Wednesday, 6 February 2013

Gallox Bridge an easy winner

Altho' I didn't post any selections yesterday, I did write a very positive word for GALLOX BRIDGE who was having his chase debut at Market Rasen, and he scooted home a very easy winner at an SP of 7/4, but I managed to obtain 7/2 in the morning. Wagering on horses having their novice chase debuts is a risky business and so, on that basis, I did not advise a wager - but I did say that I was having a small personal wager on the horse (half-stakes) and he did me proud. I can see GALLOX BRIDGE improving for a step-up in trip and as he's won over 2m5f as a hurdler he should be able to stay that distance and a bit more as a chaser. For an 8yo he does not have many miles on the clock but he has now won 4 of his 9 races under rules and he looks like a 130+ chaser in the making.

Another I had a positive word for was not as pleasing with his performance; NO NO BINGO found some support in the "ring" and started at 6/1 but he never gave that support anything to cheer about and was soon tailed-off and pulled up.

The midweek horseracing is getting interesting as trainers are placing their horses for that final pre-Festival run to bring them to peak fitness. As such, you have Quartz De Thaix running over hurdles today at Carlisle having been a revelation as a 3-mile handicap chaser this season.

Later, in the 4:35 which is a handicap chase over 2m5f, I am expecting BILLY CUCKOO to repay the faith having fallen LTO when going well. He should find the heavy going there no problem as he's won on it before and, having fallen LTO, supporters should be able to find a bit of value in his odds as he looks a lot better than his OR109 rating and probably should be about 5/2, or shorter, for this race. As such, odds of 9/2 (Corals) look very generous, and he's also 4/1 with a host of other bookies.

At Ludlow, another off my personal alert list is GRANDIOSO in the 3:50 there. However, after his latest run I thought he was a bit one-paced and that a step-up in trip to something like 3-mile was needed. As such, over 2m4f today, he looks vulnerable. Followers of the blog will know that I am restricting my wagers to only those horses on my alert list as they are, in my opinion, well-handicapped and capable of winning in the right circumstances. As such, I can't wager on GRANDIOSO today in this race, but I won't wager against him either.

Just the one selection today and as I wager to £40 a point, I'm going to risk £20 win on BILLY CUCKOO @ 9/2 with Corals.

Selection:
Carlisle 4:35, BILLY CUCKOO, ½pt win @ 9/2 (Corals)

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad



Tuesday, 5 February 2013

Euphoria and Tragedy, a heady mix

What should have been the anointing of a "champion elect" at Doncaster yesterday turned in a split-second to a tragedy when Darlan - one of the brightest talents in the hurdling sphere - hit the final hurdle and came down heavily suffering a fatal injury. For those who love the sport of horseracing, this sort of incident is the bitter pill to be swallowed to counter the euphoria and wholesale joy that watching horses in full-flow running and jumping at speed. Detractors and critics were soon decrying the "game" as cruel, but horses have evolved over millennia to run and jump at speed, and it would be even crueler not to allow them to live life to the full. It says a lot for the sport of horseracing that Nicky Henderson, the trainer of Darlan and a man who has spent his entire working life involved with racehorses and knows only too well of the euphoria and the tragedy, was in tears at the track on witnessing the fall and learning of the fate of Darlan.

Would it be too mawkish to have a memorial at a racecourse like Ascot, where a wreath can be laid on Champions Day to those horses who have been injured in horseracing? After a quick test of the opinion on Twitter it seems that it's probably a bad idea that would invite trouble and criticism from the opponents of horseracing. Instead, when I'm next at Cheltenham for the Festival in March, I'll lay a flower at the base of the statue of Arkle.

After a pause for thought, life moves on....

We have two meetings today at Market Rasen and Sedgefield. At Market Rasen, I note that GALLOX BRIDGE from my personal alert list has his debut chase today in the novice event over 2m2f at 2:30. There are only 5 runners going to post in this and usually I do not wager in such small fields, but the presence of unconvincing chaser Megastar as the short-priced favourite means that I'm likely to obtain a little bit of value about GALLOX BRIDGE. Having a wager on horses having their chase debut is probably the quickest way to lose your money in horse-racing, so I'm not advising readers to risk their money but, trainer Tim Vaughan has engaged talented rider Dougie Costello (usual jockey Richard Johnson rides one for Vaughan at Sedgefield) and so I'm having a small wager as 7/2 (Stan James & Betfred) looks too long.

Later at Market Rasen in the 3:30 we have what looks to be a very open Class 4 handicap chase over an extended 2m6f. When we last saw him, Charlie Longsdon's NO NO BINGO flopped quite badly at Plumpton and was pulled-up. As here isn't much in this race to write home about (it is a class 4) I'm hoping that the horse is able to revert to the form of his previous win and, if he can, that should be enough to secure him victory in this. Again, I don't like advising wagers in races as weak as this class 4 chase is, so I'm not going to. But I will be having a small wager myself on NO NO BINGO as 7/1 (Stan James) looks interesting.

As I write, Sedgefield is to have another inspection at 11:00am and therefore it is likely to not go ahead. So, I'm not going to look through the cards there. That said, if it does go ahead I think Tim Vaughan's DUNEEN POINT in the 2:50 should give jockey Richard Johnson a winning ride.

No selections advised.



Sunday, 3 February 2013

5.50pts profit from 3.50pts staked - yet another winning Saturday

I came up trumps again for readers of the blog when ON TREND romped home @ 8/1 to turn around what was looking like a bad day at the office into another winning Saturday afternoon for the Wayward Lad blog. This follows the 8.40pts profit from 4pts staked last Saturday (just 4 selections) 26th January.
The previous Saturday (19th January) there was no UK jumps racing, and before that on Saturday 12th January we dropped 2.50pts when both selections were well beaten.
However, on Saturday 5th January I gave readers of the blog the Welsh National winner MONBEG DUDE @ 12/1 and, from just 2.50pts staked, another profitable day with 7.75pts in the bag.
If you've followed this blog every Saturday since 1st January then from 12.50pts staked you'd have made 19.15pts profit, equivalent to a 153% return on investment. In ordinary language, if you'd staked £10 a point then from wagers totaling £125 you'd have made a profit of £191.50. 
Let me tell you, this is a very good performance in anyone's terms - and it's free!
All I ask is that if you have a winning wager on what you read on this blog, be generous and share the wealth and hit that "donate" button at the top of the page.
Every little bit helps oil the wheels of life.
My stats page tell me that 542 people visited this blog yesterday, and what did you come to it for? There's not much point in reading it and then not bothering to place a wager, that's like looking at the cakes in the shop window and not bothering to buy one. So, it is fair to assume that the majority of readers placed a wager after reading this blog. If you are one of those that did, be gracious and hit the donate button. What would you rather do - pay £10+ in advance?
The choice is yours....

Saturday, 2 February 2013

West Wales National - whatever next?


An interesting day with 3 jumps meetings at Ffos Las, Sandown (which is an all-chase card) and Wetherby.  Ffos Las has the Welsh Champion Hurdle at 2:05, which is a limited handicap over 2m4f. This is followed by what I consider the confusing named West Wales National. We’ve had the Welsh National already, and that is a well-established race in the calendar, so what is this race all about? Does every track need its own version of the National? Why not call it something specific, such as the Ffos Las Marathon, and identify the race with Ffos Las?

Rant over, it’s heavy going at the track and I have several off my personal alert list running in the Welsh Champion Hurdle. I think the fav Oscara Dara is short enough at 7/2 in this 14-runner race, but he may just be good enough to improve again and take the race. He won’t have my money on him as, if he doesn’t find any improvement, he could be vulnerable. There wasn’t much between Balder Success and HOLLOW TREE when they met over 2-mile in November, and I reckon HOLLOW TREE will prevail over this trip. My selection has been lumping 11st 12lb around, coming close in a race over 2m4f at Haydock on heavy NTO before finding 3-mile too far LTO. Odds of 16/1 look interesting as an eachway play as I don’t rate Tanerko Emery in this race and there is little depth in the others.

My initial thought was to go with SHAKING HANDS in the West Wales National, but he’s been raised 9lbs for his demolition job LTO and, at OR128, he’s 4lbs out of the handicap so he’s effectively running-off OR132. His trainer, David Pipe, also supplied the top-weight Junior (who is now a non-runner) and that, for me, is a big pointer that SHAKING HANDS has a decent chance. It all depends on whether Cannington Brook can repeat his latest winning form away from Haydock. If he can, he has a great chance in this at the weights as he is 1 of only 3 in the handicap proper. I’m not sure about this race; 3m3f on heavy going may prove too much for a front-runner like SHAKING HANDS off OR132 and there’s not much scope in his odds of 11/2.

The all-chase card at Sandown looks spectacular on paper. The novice chase over 2m4f & 110 yards at 2:25 could be a fine opportunity for HOUBLON DES OBEAUX to get back in the winners enclosure. This talented 3-mile hurdler seems best at around 2m5f as a chaser, and he should be able to handle the heavy ground at Sandown. You could say he’d prefer better ground as he’s not won on heavy for the last 3 races he’s run on it, but his stamina should help him get the better of today’s opposition, which includes the odds-on fav Captain Conan. At 9/2 he’s worth a speculative ½pt win wager in this 4-horse race.

The Betfred Masters Chase at 3:35 looks tricky. There is no value at all in Keppols Hill representing Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh at odds of 7/4. Opposing him will be Mister Hyde on (9/2) Viking Blond (9/1) and On Trend (8/1). The form of the Keppols Hill race LTO does not look strong. I’m in a bit of a quandary with this race as I think Viking Blond must win a good race soon off OR132 but this race is on right-handed Sandown which is a new area for him. Mister Hyde will love the heavy ground (as he did LTO) but a 13lb hike for his LTO win looks tough. ON TREND hammered Mister Hyde as a novice chaser and his latest run (2nd to Brackloon High) was a huge step forward on his comeback trail. Odds of 8/1 look fair value to me as I expect him to be either 1st or 2nd (to Keppols Hill).

Wetherby usually has a solid card and today’s is no different, altho’ I see no benefit for punters putting a hunter-chase on as the 2nd race in the card. The novice chase at 3:20 has David Pipe introducing his very promising GOULANES, but he has some tough opposition. Fill The Power will put in his usual strong performance at about 138-140. But the winner could well be FOURJACKS who won his debut chase well (beating another Pipe novice chaser in Poole Master) and looks sure to improve on that performance. The current odds are a bit disappointing as I was hoping for 4/1, but he’s no longer than 7/2 as I write. If you can get 9/2 he’s worth a ½pt win wager, but I cannot advise a wager at 7/2.

By the way, I'm now subscribing to the ratings provided by Formbet but I am writing this blog without reference to them. This blog, and the selections within it, is based on my personal alert list and the observations I have made from the form-book.

Selections:
Ffos Las 2:05, HOLLOW TREE, ½pt eachway @ 16/1 (Bet365 & Stan James - ¼ odds 1,2,3 both are BOG)
Ffos Las 2:40, SHAKING HANDS, 1pt win @ 11/2 (available generally, go BOG with Bet365)
Sandown 2:25, HOUBLON DES OBEAUX, ½pt win @ 9/2 (available generally, go BOG with Bet365)
Sandown 3:35, ON TREND, 1pt win @ 8/1 (available generally, go BOG with Bet365)
Total = 3½pts staked

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Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose. Thanks from Wayward Lad.