Cheltenham 26th October

The first Cheltenham Saturday meeting of the 2019-20 Jumps season, and what a welcome return it is. I'll be honest, while I enjoy watching the best of the flat racing, I find it a difficult medium to get excited about for wagering purposes. For me, the comfort blanket of the jumps, the familiar names, the characteristics of the tracks, the enthusiasm of the crowds and the camaraderie of the entire package make even losing wagers seem pleasurable.
I didn't post a blog for Friday's meeting, due to time constraints, and I didn't find a winner with my personal wager of the day which was a win bet on Plantagenet who (having led most of the way) succumbed to a late challenge and came home 2nd.
I wrote this blog on Friday evening, and there are a few non-runners:
Cobra De Mai (no surprise there); Rock The Kasbah (didn't think this would be pulled and we may see Richard Johnson "jock off" another rider); Shantou Village, and The Young Master.
As such there has been a dramatic change to the betting - good luck to those who read this blog on Friday evening!
The new fav is West Approach at 7/2 and that looks a bit short to me, but he should run well. Last nights odds on my chosen pair have long gone: BACK TO THE THATCH is now 10/1 from 20/1, and RED INFANTRY is 25/1 from 33/1. The early bird catches the worm!
Long term readers will know that handicap chases are my bread & butter, and Saturdays card start with a Class 2 handicap chase over 3m1f. No 10yo or older horse has won this race in the past 10 years, and 6yo's and under are also best avoided; so I'm discounting Onefortheroadtom, Cogry and The Young Master. Those carrying over 11st 7lb also struggle, the only such winner being Coologue (who I tipped on this blog) in 2016; so I'm discounting Cobra De Mai and Rock The Kasbah. I cannot see Minella Rocco doing anything, and Rocky's Treasure does his best work in fields of 5 or under. Of those remaining that are under 9yo, Captain Chaos ran a stinker in this last year, and Cheltenham possibly isn't his course. I really like the 7yo Back To The Thatch who likely found the Midlands National over 4m2f too far when falling at the final fence, but his 2nd at Haydock on soft ground over 3m3f looks right for this. If the ground was "good" (it's on the soft side of good-to-soft) then I would really like Bob Mahler and Rolling Dylan. I think this trip will stretch The Conditional, and Mindsmadeup.
The 9yo Crosspark possibly wants further than this, and possibly the same goes for Royal Vacation. Shantou Village needs to be at his best to win this off OR142.  West Approach could not get his head in front last season and went up from OR143 to OR150 in the process, as such he's not my idea of a winner of this race. The Irish trained Na Trachalai Abu has only won 2 of his 24 chase races in Ireland and he will face a tough task in this. Since winning the Rowland Meyrick in 2017 Get On The Yager has not been the same horse despite wind surgery. Red Infantry will find this trip to his liking and has scope off OR138, he could go close.
I think this race will be between BACK TO THE THATCH and RED INFANTRY, and this pair are both at long odds and well worth an eachway wager.
Suggested wager:
Cheltenham 2:00pm
BACK TO THE THATCH - £5 eachway @ 20/1 (BetVictor 5th odds a place 1,2,3,4,5)
RED INFANTRY - £5 eachway @ 33/1  (BetVictor 5th odds a place 1,2,3,4,5)

At Kelso, I reckon VINTAGE CLOUDS could be the one to beat in the 3:00pm Class 2, 3m2f handicap chase. He has only 7 rivals and has won his seasonal chase debut for the past couple of seasons. He was due to run in the handicap chase reviewed above at Cheltenham, but has been diverted here instead. Odds of 9/2 look more than fair for a horse who will almost certainly be in the 1st-3 with a clear round and he is usually a very safe jumper.

All the best and good luck with your wagers.
PS: I think I've sorted out the security issue with the blog (some chancer was trying to extort money) but if you do get a dodgy email purporting to be from me, it will be fake so please just delete it.

Chepstow 12th October

The autumn 2-day Chepstow meeting is traditionally considered the opening day of the Jumps season proper.  I remember watching this day on the old BBC sports programme Grandstand.
I have had some good luck at this meeting in past years, and sometimes finding winners at this time of the year can be as easy as finding the fittest horse in the race.
The 2m7f handicap chase at 3:20pm looks a fair wagering opportunity.
Only 8 runners go to post and the market is headed by Cloth Cap (9/2) and Lil Rockerfella (4/1). Personally, I think Lil Rockerfella needs to improve on his chasing to win off OR145 as he didn't look up to that racing in his novice season last year.  The soft ground is likely to be the undoing of Cloth Cap as he's been a "good" ground horse and confined to that by his trainer so far.
Ballyoptic (11/2) will need to be at his very best running off OR152, and Relentless Dreamer (11/2) hasn't been seen since winning at Cheltenham this time last year.
The horse that takes my eye is CAPTAIN CHAOS who ran in this race last year when the ground was "good" but he much prefers soft ground. He was also badly handicapped last year running off OR142 as he had won a couple of novice chases in the autumn of 2017.  This year he runs off OR135 as he ran a couple of cracking races in defeat at Newcastle and Wetherby in December over 3-mile. He is 6/1 with Bet365 and Ladbrokes/Coral and that looks good value as I'd have him at 4/1.
Later in the day at 5:05pm the Class 2 handicap chase over 2m3f should go to Charbel who won this race last year. I would name him as my selection, but I also have a soft spot for Activial who is well-up for winning off OR149 over this sort of trip (had no chance when last seen in the Grand National) and was very consistent last year.

Just the one selection £10 won on CAPTAIN CHAOS @ 6/1, but those more adventurous may split their stake and have £5 win on both Charbel and Activial in the 5:05pm race 

Time to concentrate on the 2019-20 Jumps season

Sunday was a tremendous day for horseracing, even if the horse we hoped to win the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe only came 2nd.
The season has been one of triumph for Enable and her trainer John Gosden, propelling both into the history books as true greats at the sport. Personally, I think the average horseracing fan underestimates the craft of a trainer in producing a horse to run to its peak over a number of years in a specific race.  Producing Enable to do just that for 3 consecutive seasons in the most competitive 12-furlong flat race in Europe, if not the World, is the sign of a truly brilliant trainer, and John Gosden is certainly at the peak of his craft.

It is that time of year again when I look back at the previous jumps season and the performance of the blog, and what I propose to do with the blog for the coming jumps season.   Last year I changed the personality of the blog, and made it more commentary based than results based. I still provided advice on wagers during the seas0n, but didn't measure success on the results and profits obtained.  I did however, continue to provide the reader with what I consider to be top-class opinion on the jump racing season, and that culminated in what turned out to be my most succesful Cheltenham Festival since starting this blog in 2010.

Since last season, my workload outside of writing the blog has increased, and I've been in two-minds whether to actually continue writing the blog or give it up for a year or two and concentrate 100% on my day-job. The thought of Cheltenham 2020 is too big, and while the blog may be more sporadic during the season, my main focus will be on carrying the reader through to the Festival in March when I intend to beat last seasons performance of winners posted on the blog 
DUC DES GENEIVRES @ 13/2,  
BEWARE THE BEAR @ 20/1 (antepost),  
TOPOFTHEGAME @ 5/1 (antepost), 
DEFI DU SEUIL @ 100/30, 
and FRODON @ 7/1 (antepost).

As the  strategy worked well last seaon, I'm going to repeat it.
While I wont be seeking donations for the regular emails, and the blog will be free to all, there remains the option for the reader to make a donation for any winners when they occur or if the reader considers the blog was worthy of a donation.  If you do make a donation, I will include you in personal horseracing opinion outside of the blog (sent by email only) that I consider to be worthwhile. 

My betting strategy results in a long term profit.