Welcome to the World of Horseracing
Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87
from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)
Total Staked = £609.00
Tuesday, 29 September 2015
Saturday, 26 September 2015
The other runner from my alert list was Upswing, and he ran a confidence boosting race to be 2nd (beaten a long way) and looks likely to improve on that placing with a more positive ride.
Onto today, and we have an attractive meeting at Market Rasen over the jumps, as well as the Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket on the flat. The "Listed" handicap chase at 2:50 at Market Rasen over an extended 2m5f is my focus, as I have a couple of horses in the race from my alert list. They are Oscar Rock and Valco De Touzaine; with Oscar Rock being the likely race fav at 4/1. Todays ground and trip will be perfect for Oscar Rock, so the only issue is whether there is a better handicapped horse in the race to beat him. the 2nd-fav Gray Hession pushed a decent yardstick to the limit LTO when winning at Southwell for the 2nd time in succession, but he has been raised 8lb for that narrow win and looks vulnerable. The current 3rd-fav at 5/1 is my other alert horse, Valco De Touzaine who comes here on the back of a solid performance at Newton Abbot last month and so holds no fitness issues. However, he didn't perform too well when 3rd here at Market Rasen in the Summer Plate Chase in July when 3rd in that race beaten 12-lengths and he will need to improve on that performance to win today.
Others in the race include Cloud Creeper, currently 7/1, who improved in leaps and bounds last season and ended the season rated OR152. He could well find further improvement to win today. I don't think I can say the same of Gold Futures, who looks like he'd prefer 3-mile than todays shorter trip. Edgardo Sol can occasionally throw in a cracking run, as he did at Cheltenham last December over a similar trip. But, all too often, he runs without any zip about 7lbs below the level of his current OR145 rating. If he's on a good day, and we won't know that till the race moves into the closing stages, then he will prove hard to beat - but generally he likes a bit of "give" in the ground to show his best.
Overall, this looks a tricky race, hence the betting is 9/2 the field, and you could could wager on the 1st-3 in the market and still not have the winner. I think OSCAR ROCK is the least exposed and I have taken the 11/2 that is being offered by a number of bookies at the moment. Those odds won't last long and I expect him to start the 4/1 fav, maybe even 7/2.
Market Rasen 2:50, OSCAR ROCK, £5 ew @ 11/2 (Bet365 and Betfred, both go 5th odds a place 1,2,3)
Total Staked = £10
Friday, 25 September 2015
Tuesday, 15 September 2015
For the 2010-11 season, the blog achieved a 9.19% ROI (Return on Investment);
In 2011-12, the ROI was 16.21%
In 2012-13, the ROI was a magnificent 48.0% (50.675pts profit on 105.50pts staked)
In 2013-14, the ROI was 19.19%
And, for last season, 2014-15, the ROI was 39.34%
That's 5 successive jumps seasons in profit for the season, and this blog is FREE!
The blog alert list is taking shape, and I reckon I've found some cracking handicappers - plus I've been in contact with a few trainers and checked up on the status of some old favourites of the blog. My premise is that horses do not get quicker with age, but they do get more proficient at jumping hurdles or fences, and they get better at pacing themselves.
My aim is to spot the ability and speed early in a horses career, and follow them as they become experienced through racing, gaining proficiency and stamina, and (hopefully) winning along the way as they stay ahead of the handicapper.
Last seasons winners included Foxcub @ 11/1; Brick Red @ 4/1; Annacotty @ 6/1; Balder Succes @ 4/1; Milborough @ 20/1; and the icing on the cake was a tremendous antepost wager on a horse that was added to my alert list on 2nd January 2013 after winning a 3-mile novice hurdle at Cheltenham on 12th December 2012, and turned out to be the Gold Cup winner of 2015 - CONEYGREE, advised at 12/1 after winning at Newbury in February.
You won't find me advising wagers on many horses older than 9yo, and you certainly won't find me advising wagers on horses at short odds. I have a minimum odds cut-off of 9/4, and I do not wager over the the jumps (hurdles or fences) at shorter odds than that. There will be some losing runs - at one point last season we were down about £120, which is equivalent to 12pts on a £10 per point staking system, but we came roaring back to be over £350 up after the Cheltenham Festival. And we were close on the opening day of the Festival to striking a major eachway double with both advised selections being placed at odds of 16/1 and 22/1.
As per last season, all wagers will be advised in cash terms, ie the advised wager is £10 win etc. To keep things simple, the staking plan is £10 per point, however I know that there are a few of you out there who wager more than this on my selections. Myself, I wager £40 a point on my selections - but you can wager whatever you feel comfortable with. I advise wagers in cash terms as I do receive a fair few emails from readers who are not sure how to operate a points based staking system.
There was no Cheltenham Festival Bulletin last season due to the pressures of my day-job (I do work for a living), but I'm planning on publishing a Bulletin in February. If you want that Bulletin, you have two options:-
1) During the course of this season, donate at least £10 from any winnings from successful wagers that I may advise on the blog, or
2) When the blog becomes available in February, donate £10 then.
Over the course of the season, I will be putting in over 60 hours of research (probably more like double that) into the Cheltenham Festival and if you want to benefit from that, then I think it's only fair that you make a contribution.
So then, here's to hoping that this season will be as good as the last. Unfortunately, one long term supporter of the blog, and an old friend for nearly 30 years, won't be reading this. But he's not forgotten, and I'm sure he's looking over my shoulder now.
All the best for the jumps season, from Wayward Lad.