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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Thursday, 17 January 2019
Tuesday, 15 January 2019
After winning his chase debut, Delta Work beat the highly rated Le Richebourg over 2m4f at Fairyhouse on 02Dec; and this looked a top-class display. Delta Work then went to Leopardstown and stepped-up to a 3-mile trip for a Grade 1 novice chase on 29Dec. Personally, I wasn’t as impressed with this performance as I was with the Leopardstown run as although he won, he looked like being beaten on the run to the last by the year-older Mortal.
Unfortunately, Mortal was asked for a big jump at the final fence, when he may not have needed it, and met it wrong, nearly losing his rider as well as all chance in the race.
Both Mortal and Le Richebourg are trained by JP O’Brien and this young trainer has made rapid progress in his short career out of the saddle. While I cannot know for sure, I feel positive that were Mortal and Delta Work to meet again over 3-mile, that Mortal would finish in front.
Don't forget to take a look at my review of my post-Festival review of last season's Cheltenham Festival (see pages on the right) as this includes valuable insights into the trends of the likely winners.
Finally, last Saturdays selections didn't run anywhere near as well as expected; not a winner amongst them. Charbel ran just about to form and that puts Top Notch at 163 on my ratings; about 5lb behind Politologue. It would seem that Charbel does not stay a yard further than 2m4f at this level.
It looked like one visit to the well too many for Cogry as his run petered-out with over a mile to go. The winner certainly stays well and he should win other marathon races in the next 12 months, but for the big one at Aintree in April, Calett Mad looks worth keeping an eye on.
Thursday, 10 January 2019
It is disappointing Waiting Patiently is not running today as that just leaves the 2m5f chase at Ascot next month to get him race-fit for Cheltenham. Right now, I think CHARBEL should win this afternoon as Top Notch has always failed when racing against the very best.
I'm happy having recommended COGRY earlier in the week (see below) and I hope you took the 8/1 or 9/1 available then (Thursday) as he's the clear 6/1 fav now. It should be a good race.
Later in the afternoon at Kempton in the 3:15pm 3-mile handicap chase I am really surprised that BARNEY DWAN is not the fav. We know he stays the trip and handles the ground, and on his day he is better than his OR141 rating. We don't know if Glen Rocco can stay this trip, and Ballykan is well exposed. Josses Hill has never looked a 3-mile chaser and the other 3 runners have something to prove. For me, the odds of 7/2 (Bet365 & BetVictor) are very generous as I think he's more like a 9/4 chance.
There are small fields everywhere and odds do not hold much scope for value, but I do think TREE OF LIBERTY should be the 5/4 fav at Wetherby in the 2-mile chase at 2:15pm. He will take them along at a good clip and has that touch of class about him, so current odds of 9/4 should be taken.
I am researching the novice chases at the Cheltenham Festival, and I will be posting a blog tomorrow (or maybe Monday) and I am fairly sure I have found some tremendous value.
My Cheltenham portfolio is starting to take shape:
Tuesday, 8 January 2019
Friday, 4 January 2019
Thursday, 3 January 2019
1. Native River 169 when 1st in the 2018 Cheltenham Gold Cup
2. Native River 169 when 1st in the Welsh National (27Dec2016)
3. Sizing John 168 when 1st in the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup
4. Clan Des Obeaux 167 when 1st in King George VI Chase (26Dec2018)
5. Might Bite 167 when 1st in Aintree Betway Bowl (12Apr2018)
6. Thistlecrack 167 when 1st in King George VI Chase (26Dec2016)
7. Definitly Red 167 when 1st in Cotswold Chase (27Jan2018)
8. Bristol De Mai 166 when 1st in Betfair Chase (24Nov2018)
9. Native River 165 when 1st in Denman Chase (10Feb2018)
= Many Clouds 165 when 1st in Cotswold Chase (28Jan2017)
= Sizing John 165 when 1st in the Punchestown Gold Cup (26Apr2017)
= Kemboy 165 when 1st in the Leopardstown Savills Chase (28Dec2018)
Taking 2nd place (behind Kemboy) was Monalee and this horse is a model of consistency; as such, I reckon the handicapper has him just about spot on at OR159. Via Monalee, I rated the winning performance of Kemboy at 165: however, as he has won both of his completed races over a trip of at least 3-miles (he fell at the 1st-fence in the 2018 Irish National), he does have a lot of potential at staying trips.
What of the others in the Cheltenham Gold Cup picture?
Al Boum Photo who fell in the RSA Chase when looking like finishing 2nd, subsequently won over 2m4f at Fairyhouse, and then looked like winning the Champion Novice Chase over an extended 3-mile at Punchestown in April (Monalee had fallen 3-out) when running-out at the last fence! Had Al Boum Photo won that race his performance would have rated about 160+, which is about 4lb behind Presenting Percy. Al Boum Photo has also run is seasonal debut in the past fortnight, winning over 2m5f at Tramore in Ireland beating stable companions Total Recall in 2nd and Invitation Only into 3rd. While the performance looked impressive, as an indication of his Cheltenham Gold Cup potential is was inconclusive to me: for Total Recall (who won the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase at Newbury on 02Dec2017) this was a wholly inadequate trip, and Invitation Only was clearly in need of the race. For me, Al Boum Photo holds a better chance in the 2m5f Ryanair Chase rather than the 3m2f Gold Cup, but (even so) he just does not look good enough to win either race.
The only other horse I'm considering is DEFINITLY RED; who beat Bristol De Mai into 3rd in January last year. He flopped when returning for the Gold Cup last March but that was probably due to the strong pace set by Native River and Might Bite. Definitly Red is not a quick horse, and it seems no coincidence that his 3 NH Flat wins came on soft/heavy ground; but he is a strong stayer and coming into the Gold Cup fresh might see him nick 3rd-place at very long odds as he's 33/1 with Hills and Boyles.