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Record of the blog selections

Profit for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £84.38

from wagers on 26 individual selections (4 winners, 6 placed)

Total Staked = £280.00


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Thursday, 3 April 2014

Dynaste to show who's the boss

We have a tremendous day of racing at Aintree for the opening day of the Grand National meeting. I remember attending this meeting in the early 1980's and, no doubt about it, the quality of the overall meeting has improved – but whoever was responsible for moving the "Doom Bar" Aintree Hurdle from Saturday to the Thursday needs a kick up the backside.
The day opens with the 2-mile Juvenile Hurdle, a race which has a tremendous role of honour and one which invariably goes to the favourite. This year the fav (at the time of writing) is Calipto who looked desperately unlucky not to be involved in the finish of the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham and he should prove too strong for the winner of the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton, Activial. One who I will be watching closely is the horse I wagered on in the Triumph Hurdle; Broughton. Trainer John Ferguson has booked AP McCoy for the ride and the horse wears 1st-time blinkers.
Next up we have one of the best races of the meeting, the eagerly awaited Betfred Bowl Chase over 3m1f.  On the formbook, this looks a match between Dynaste and Silviniaco Conti. The Irish challenger First Lieutenant won the race last year and is strongest at this trip, but he's no better that 162 on my ratings and will need to find over 7lb of improvement to win today.  He may have beaten Silviniaco Conti into 3rd last year, and he could well do the same again today (as there is no pace in the race to get the best out of "Conti") but I can't see him getting the better of Dynaste. This looks set-up for Dynaste to show that he should have gone for the Gold Cup and not the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Dynaste won the novice chase over the C&D at this meeting last year so we know he'll enjoy the conditions, and the race looks like being run to suit him.
I remember watching Monksfield, Night Nurse and Daring Run win the Aintree Hurdle when it was run on the Saturday prior to the Grand National in the late 1970's and early 1980's, and this race is one of the feature races of the hurdling calendar. Why it's being run on Thursday and not Saturday is beyond me. Is The New One fit to join the winner's roster? He's certainly improved a few pounds since running 2nd in this race last year to Zarkandar, but he's still yet to achieve the OR170 rating Rock On Ruby held when a 2-mile hurdler. I wouldn't read too much into when this pair met at Kempton last October as Rock On Ruby was nowhere near as fit then as he will be today. Connections were planning a step-up in trip and possible World Hurdle attempt after that Kempton race, so I've no concerns about today's 2m4f trip and, at 14/1 with Bet Victor, Rock On Ruby looks a decent wager. If you are not inclined to take on The New One, then odds of 100/30 without The New One (Bet Victor and Paddy Power) look good to me.
The Manifesto Novices Chase at 4:50 over 2m4f looks a cracker of a puzzle to solve despite there being only 5-runners. Before I started writing this blog, I was going to pass on making a selection in this race as I expected Western Warhorse, winner of the "Arkle" at the Cheltenham Festival, to be the 6/4 fav.  I've just looked and the horse is at 11/4 with a number of bookies (Bet365, Bet Victor, Paddy Power and Stan James). There will be no issues regarding stamina for this horse, and this 6yo won LTO like a step-up in trip to 2m4f would suit him even more. Oscar Whisky is the 9/4 fav but I think his OR156 rating is generous and I have him at about 151, or 10lbs behind Western Warhorse. All the others are chasing the place money.
Selections:
Aintree 3:05 – ROCK ON RUBY, £10 win @ 14/1 with Bet Victor
And £10 win (without The New One) @ 100/30
Aintree 4:50 – WESTERN WARHORSE, £10 win @ 11/4 (Bet Victor, Bet365, Paddy Power, Stan James)

1 comment:

  1. So close to the big win there from ROCK ON RUBY. Another yard and he'd have won. Still, the 100/30 for 2nd to the fav meant a profit on the day's wagers.
    It was disappointing to see WESTERN WARHORSE take part after he was so disruptive in the paddock. He should have been withdrawn as he used up too much energy with his antics.
    Finally, I've been following Parsnip Pete for the past 18-months and the day I don't have a wager on him is the day he wins at 16/1.

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