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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 28 February 2015
Trying for another winning Saturday
We have 3 meetings todays at Newbury, Doncaster and Kelso, so plenty of racing to choose from.
At Newbury, the feature race is the at 3:25pm - a Grade 3 handicap chase run over 2m4f worth over £28,000 to the winner. I think the top-weight and race fav Sound Investment will struggle off this mark of OR149 unless he can find a few pounds of improvement. His run LTO over 3-mile can be excused as he didn't stay the trip, but his win at Sandown in November now looks top-notch form. But I felt he was helped by the ground that day (a lot softer than good-to-soft) and so I have my eye on another in the race. The obvious one is Royal Regatta, but we have to assume that the horse - who has been running over 2-mile as a novice chaser - will stay this trip. Saint Raph is another who we have to make a judgement on as he won by a mile (actually 34-lengths) when left in the lead at the final fence LTO, and that form may be dubious based on the subsequent performances of those that were beaten that day. Venetia Williams hasn't been in good form of late, and she sends a handful of runners here today, including Benny's Mist. All his winning has been on soft or heavy ground so you may be wondering why I'm talking about him as it's good-to-soft on the chase course at Newbury (it's soft on the hurdle course). Well, he's run some cracking races in defeat on good and GS ground in the past 12 months, and he stays up to 3-mile. I have a feeling this race will be run at a good pace and that will favour Benny's Mist who will be thereabouts come the finish. Odds of 10/1 with Bet365 and Stan James who are quarter-odds a place 1,2,3 look generous to me as I'd have him at about 6/1, maybe even a bit less.
At Doncaster, the feature race is the Grimthorpe Chase over 3m2f at 3:45pm. The ground is 'good' and that is perfect for last year's winner Night In Milan, who does not want the ground to be soft. However, the last horse to win this race carrying more than 11st was that top-class chaser Cloudy Lane back in 2008, and I cannot see either of those at the top of the handicap winning this race today. I'm going for a young chaser who has had a gentle preparation this season, with this being only his 3rd race of the season - Samingarry. Today's trip and ground will be perfect for him, and he comes into this race fairly fresh and this race looks like it has been his target for the season. Odds of 12/1 (available generally), are not as generous as I'd expect, but that reflects that opposition.
Just the two selections and, as I did last week, I'm going for a big hit with a small eachway double.
Newbury 3:25 - Benny's Mist, £4 ew @ 10/1 (Bet365 and Stan James)
Doncaster 3:45 - Samingarry, £4 ew @ 12/1 (available generally)
£2 eachway double on the above selections
Total staked = £20