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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 14 March 2015
Time to Bet Like A Man - CONEYGREE advised on 9th Feb @ 12/1
Yesterday morning, after a night of rain and with rain continuing to fall on Cheltenham, there was a slight doubt in my mind that Coneygree would be able to make-all on ground that was very likely to be soft. I truly thought that Nicholls would order that Silviniaco Conti to push on and make a move on the 2nd-circuit but, as they headed up the hill, Coneygree pushed on harder from the front and you could see some serious horses (Bobs Worth, Sam Winner, Houblon Des Obeaux) starting to struggle and lose touch. At this point, Silviniaco Conti was in 5th and tho' he did take closer order, I knew he wasn't going to win. As they reached the top-of-the-hill, Coneygree came back to the following group, and I thought he may be starting to feel the pinch, but his jockey was just giving him a breather. At that point, I thought the main danger was Many Clouds. However, as they turned the corner to come down the hill again, Coneygree picked up the pace and soon there was only the Irish pair Road To Riches and Djakadam going with him. This race certainly identified the plodders from the quality horses. Some exemplary jumping from Coneygree, who was only having his 4th chase race, kept him to the fore, and his stamina never failed him as he galloped resolutely to the line.
This was a seriously better quality Gold Cup than the 2014 renewal won by Lord Windermere (who pulled-up this time never having improved from a tailed-off last position). I've rated the race thru' Road To Riches who I thought ran a cracker. Remember, Road to Riches beat Rocky Creek (now rated OR163) by 11-lengths at level-weights last November. I reckon Road To Riches ran a career-best of 168, which is 3lbs better than I rated him when he beat Rocky Creek. That puts Coneygree on 171, which is 10lbs better than the rating I gave Lord Windermere when he won the Gold Cup last year. This works in nicely with Holywell (beaten nearly 10-lengths into 4th) who matched his highest rating in my book of 162. The surprise of the race for me was the 6yo Djakadam, who himself was only having his 6th chase race. He completely defied my opinion of him and finally showed why there was such a gamble on him for the Hennessy Gold Cup last November, a race he competed in off a rating of OR142. It was only lack of racing experience that cost him that day as he was at least 20lbs well-in.
Coneygree's win has made this jump season the best ever for me and those who follow the blog selections.
PROFIT = £337.12
Total Staked = £595.00
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