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Record of the blog selections

LOSS for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00


Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, at cumulative stakes of £5,726 - which has resulted in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 equivalent to a Return on Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Thursday, 7 September 2017

Proposals for the 2017-18 Jumps season

Overall, last season was a difficult one for me as I was unable to find any consistency with my selections.  There were some high points, however (during the course of the season) I made selections in 55 races and (unfortunately) 9 of those selections ran 2nd, with some horses subsequently showing form that indicated they should have won.

Examples being:-
As De Mee selected at 7/1 on 12th November, ran unplaced, and then won next-time-out at 4/1.  
Courtown Oscar selected at 16/1 on 17th December pulled-up, and then won next-time-out at 8/1.
Milan Bound selected at 16/1 on 21st December pulled-up, and then won next-time-out at 12/1 
Otago Trail selected at 10/1 on 21st January ran 2nd, and then won next-time-out at 4/1
Label Des Obeaux selected at 20/1 on 14th March (Cheltenham Festival opening day 3-mile handicap chase) ran unplaced, and then won next-time-out at 12/1.

I had a better handle on the top-staying chase races, nominating via the blog Native River as an eachway Gold Cup wager at 20/1 on the morning before he won the Welsh National, and again at 10/1 after he'd won that race when (in the blog of 30th December) I suggested he should be 9/4 for the Gold Cup. 
Also (in that 30th December blog) I suggested taking 40/1 eachway about Minella Rocco for the Gold Cup.  Minella Rocco and Native River subsequently ran 2nd and 3rd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Via the blog, I only found 6 winners in the season from the 55 races in which I made a selection, and this resulted in a loss of £40.87 to recommended stakes - stakes which totalled £609. 
It is a surprise that the loss was not worse (given the small number of winning selections) but my selections did result in a large number of placed horses, 12 in total (9 x 2nd and 3 x 3rd) at decent odds mitigated the deficit. That return in 18 of the 55 races (1-in-3) is the target I set myself, I just wish a few more of the placed horses could have won in the races in which I wagered on.  Season 2016-17 was the first jumps season in which my selections have shown a loss over the entire season since I started writing my blog in March 2010. One losing season in 7 isn't too shabby a strike-rate, even if I say so myself. 

However, I have found finding the time to write the blog, and conduct the form study to make it all worthwhile, a real struggle in the past 12 months and so I have decided to scale back and reduce the burden.  As such, although I will continue writing the blog it will probably only be once or twice a week during the coming jumps season. 

 My intention is to write a blog that is more commentary and opinion than selection based - although I am hoping the odd betting coup will occur.  There will also be more focus on the Cheltenham Festival races and I will be endeavouring to find a winner there come March 2018 about which I have long antepost odds. In the meantime, I thank you for your support in the past and hope you will continue to read the blog.

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