Hit the Crossbar! Spacious 2nd @ 10/1

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of yesterday’s Racing
Hit the crossbar yesterday with SPACIOUS coming-in 2nd @ 9/1 (advised at 10/1). That cost us a ½pt loss, but the winner came from “left-field” and all the expected dangers were well beaten. What I was spot-on with was Special Duty who was exposed by the strong pace of the race and, as expected, did not justify the market support and was an exceptional “place-lay” at 1.80 on the exchanges prior to the off. BTW, Music Show, which beat Spacious is – in my opinion – the best 3yo filly we’ve seen this season by far. There were a few trainers-in-form who had single runners out; notably TD Easterby who followed-up on his 2 winners from 4 runners on Tuesday with another winner from his only runner yesterday – and it won at 7/1 as well.

Today’s Racing Selections
Some good racing today, with 2nd day of the July Meeting at Newmarket this afternoon. Give the afternoon meeting at Folkstone a miss, but there is some interest at Warwick where the 2:55 is a competitive affair. Paul D’Arcy and TD Barron have their only runners of the day in this, and trainers in hot-form TD Easterby and Mark Johnston also have runners. At Newmarket in the opening race we may have the answer to the old question “weight can slow a horse down, but can lack of weight make it run quicker?” Last time they met Corsica gave 18lb to Harris Tweed and was beaten 5-lengths; today they meet on level-weights so Corsica should win. But will the weight turnaround make the difference? The 2:35 3yo handicap over 10f looks extremely competitive and a race I will not try and solve.
The Group 2 at 3:10 looks to hold a decent value wager in HOLBERG at current odds of 100/30. The form of his latest run when winning at Goodwood on 4th June has been franked by the placed horses, and the fav Spanish Moon is a horse that prefers a bit of “give” in the going. The Noseda horse Sans Frontieres, which is his only runner today, is also interesting as he was a very well-thought-of 3yo who ran in the Dante at York after coming 2nd to Delegator in the Craven. He could well make the frame at long odds.
This evening at Doncaster, Henry Cecil sends up AEGEAN SHADOW for the 7:45 but current best-odds of just 7/4 are far too skinny for a half-brother to 6-furlong sprinter Corporal Maddox that is trying a mile for the first time.
At Epsom, in the 7:55 HEAR THE ROAR benefits from the 3yo weight allowance and this unexposed horse can win on his local track, looking value at 3/1. In the final race on the card at 9:00, Peter Makin’s HAND PAINTED can improve on his last run which came after a 283-day break. That form looks good as the winner has won again since. HAND PAINTED is best at 6f on good-to-firm and should handle Epsom having won twice at Brighton.

Newmarket 3:10 HOLBERG, 2pts win @ 3/1
Epsom 7:55 HEAR THE ROAR, 1pts win @ 100/30
Epsom 9:00 HAND PAINTED, 0.50pts EW @ 6/1 (with Ladbrokes)
Total = 4pts staked

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Spacious to take the Falmouth @ 10/1

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing
Today’s Racing Selections
World Cup

Review of yesterday’s Racing
No racing selections yesterday, but there was the usual advice to follow trainers in form.

Henry Cecil who had a 40% placed strike-rate coming into yesterday (3 wins: 1 placed; from 10 runners) in the past 14-days sent out 2 runners, and had an 8/1 winner at Wolverhampton; his other entry at Pontefract being a non-runner. That makes it 4 winners from his 8 runners in the past week! Jamie Osborne came into the day also with a 40% strike-rate (3w & 3p from 15) and sent one to Wolverhampton that won at 10/1. That makes it 3 winners from 4 runners in just 6 days for him.

Today’s Racing Selections
I have been on a good run of form lately myself, with Monday’s winner being my 3rd from my last 7 selections over the past week, bringing in 9.20pts profit to a total outlay of 14pts – that’s a 65% return on investment.
At Newmarket today there are some tricky races, but I am looking at the main feature, the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes. All eyes are on the fav Lily Langtry after her win at Royal Ascot in the Coronation Stakes. The value of that win though, is debatable given the form of the 3yo fillies generally who appear much of a muchness. She is the best of the 3yo’s in this with Rainfall unlikely to stay a mile; Special Duty looking a lucky winner of both the English and French Guineas; and Music Show crying-out for 10-furlongs. That is also the same of Gile Na Greine who was considered an Oaks filly back in April. So, how good is Lily Langtry? As she was thought to be going up to 10-furlongs for the Pretty Polly at the Curragh and didn’t beat a true miler at Royal Ascot, I’d say she has to improve about 5lbs to guarantee winning this. Of the older horses, Lahaleeb will not enjoy this trip (wants 10f) nor enjoy the going (likes “give”). There is nothing between Strawberrydaiquiri and SPACIOUS on their last meeting, yet SPACIOUS is 10/1 compared to 5/1 for her short-head conqueror at levels LTO. Today’s race should be run at the pace she needs (courtesy of Gile Na Greine) and her 3rd in last year’s Falmouth won by Goldikova puts her right in the picture in this. It is nigh on impossible for me to see her finishing outside the 1st-3 and she could easily reverse the placing’s with Strawberrydaiquiri and, if Lily Langtry is not quite as good a miler as expected, she can win this. Therefore, 10/1 looks an absolute gift. I reckon she is more like a 9/2 chance (Strawberrydaiquiri @ 4/1; Lily Langtry @ 3/1; Special Duty @ 8/1). I will probably “place-lay” Special Duty.

Newmarket 3:10 SPACIOUS, 0.5pts each-way @ 10/1 (with Bet365 at ¼odds)
Newmarket 3:10 SPACIOUS, 1pts win @ 10/1 (with Bet365)
Total = 2pts staked

World Cup
What a result! Netherlands are in the final of the World Cup. I really hope those who follow this blog took the 9/1 which I advised on 21st June about The Netherlands to win the World Cup. They are not the most spectacular side, but remember, football is a team game. It is not a game played by individuals looking for personal glory. Both the Netherlands and Uruguay (who bravely fought to the last whistle) played like a team. As do Germany who, on that basis, should beat Spain and meet the Netherlands in the final. Time to lay-off the stake and savour in the potential profits.

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Tremendous 6/1 winner advised yesterday

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing
Today’s Racing Selections
World Cup

Review of yesterday’s Racing
It all came good yesterday, with DESERT POPPY winning at odds of 6/1. I did say in the blog that she could be a lot better than her OR76 rating, and I think she could turn out to be OR88+. It was a big ask to come out and win on her 3yo debut from seasoned, race-fit older horses and that’s why I advised not taking less than 6/1. In fact, DESERT POPPY touched 8/1 in the closing minutes before the off. If you visited the blog again before the race, you will see that I advised taking the 7/1 on offer at the time to 1pt each-way. So that’s 8.40pts profit. You may also have noticed my late comment about Equuleus Pictor in the same race, and the going. This horse has only ever won on good-to-soft going or softer and, in 21 starts on good or quicker, it’s only been placed 5 times. Why it started at 7/1 is beyond me and I managed to lay-it to be unplaced in-running when it was leading after 3-furlongs. As expected, it faded and finished out of the places.

At what about trainers in-form? Jeremy Noseda made it 2 winners from 3 runners in 3 days when his sole runner of the day SQUALL took the 9:20 at Ripon at 9/4. I didn’t make it a selection but you should have seriously considered its chances. And what about BROADWAY DANCER in the same race? This well-bred maiden was 3rd at 20/1 – the best advice is available free on the Wayward Lad blog!

Another trainer in-form is Mark Johnston. He can be difficult to follow as he has 200 horses in-training at his stable and it’s not unusual for him to send out 8 or more on a single day. Yesterday, he sent out 4 runners; 3 to Ripon and just 1 to Windsor. The runner at Windsor won at 8/1 (was the “tissue” fav at 5/2 in the RP), and he had 2 winner at Ripon at 5/1 and 5/4 with his other runner finishing 2nd, beaten by SQUALL. That was a fantastic 120/1 treble.

Today’s Racing Selections
It looks rather poor racing today, probably as the Newmarket July Meeting is later this week. After winning with 3 from 4 yesterday, Mark Johnston sends out only EPIC for the 3:00 at Pontefract, but this looks a tricky affair, especially as Geoff Harker has his only runner out today – AUTUMN HARVEST – in the same race, and Fahey also has a fancied runner.

So, I cannot see any value at the moment. Maybe more later on.

World Cup
Yesterday, I wrote on the blog that Netherlands face Germany in the Semi-Final of the World Cup, but in fact they meet Uruguay. I really hope those who follow this blog took the 9/1 which I advised on 21st June about The Netherlands , it looks like a cracking opportunity for a big win and more than makes up for the disappointing efforts made in the opening round of fixtures.

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Dick Turpin - highway robbery

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing
Today’s Racing Selections
World Cup

Review of yesterday’s Racing
No selections posted on the blog yesterday (it being a Sunday) but what a great result from France with Richard Hannon’s DICK TURPIN confirming the superiority of the English “milers” in taking the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly from a top-quality field - including French Guineas and Derby winner Lope De Vega - at the generous odds of 5/1. It was probably asking a lot of Lope De Vega to drop back to a mile from the 10½-furlongs of the French Derby trip. What the result confirmed was that CANFORD CLIFFS is a very talented miler – probably one of the best we’ve seen in recent years – as Hannon thinks he is clearly superior to DICK TURPIN. The form of yesterday’s race in which Hearts Of Fire (4th) and Siyouni (2nd) re-opposed DICK TURPIN when read in conjunction with the St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot confirms that there were no “hard luck” stories at Royal Ascot.

Today’s Racing Selections
We know that summer is here when we have the July Meeting at Newmarket. Its 3 weeks since Royal Ascot so we can expect to see many of those that raced there, racing again this week. Trainers in form is the way to go at the height of summer and paying attention to those trainers sending just a single runner to the track on any given day can be very lucrative. For instance, Jeremy Noseda sent out just Group Therapy (2nd @ 3/1) on Saturday but followed that up on Sunday with a 5/4 winner from his only runner at Brighton where he has now had 14 winners from just 27 runners in the past 5 years. Today, he sends just SQUALL to Ripon (where he’s had only 6 runners in the past 5 years) for the 9:20. There are meetings on the flat today at Bath and this evening at Ripon and Windsor. Nothing jumps out of the card at Bath, though Sir Mark Prescott’s only runner today COMEDY ACT will be hard to beat – but I don’t really like races with fewer than 6 runners, and there’s only 4 in this. At Ripon, the final race at 9:20 is an interesting 3yo maiden as, along with Noseda, Saeed Bin Suroor sends his only runner today, MUREB, all the way from Newmarket. There is also the interesting BROADWAY DANCER from Richard Fahey’s stable making its debut in the race. Her dam is a half-sister to the outstanding Arazi, and Broadway Dancer is her 1st foal.
At Windsor, there is also an interesting 3yo maiden at 8:40 with single stable runners from Stoute (ENTITLED) and Gosden (FUN AFFAIR). However, the race that I will be watching with interest is the 7:40, a 5f class 4 handicap with the well handicapped DESERT POPPY making her 3yo debut. She could be a lot better than her OR76 rating, and 11/2 is fair but I’d be happier taking 6/1 plus.

So, no wagers today though if you can get 6/1 plus about DESERT POPPY in the Windsor 7:40 then I’d wager 1pt ew.

World Cup
Brazil is beaten at the Quarter-Final stage and their manager Dunga gets the sack! It’s a hard world in international football. This time last week, the focus was on the “domination” of the World Cup by the South American countries; today there is just Uruguay left in (after a despicable hand-ball incident prevented Ghana from winning) after Argentina and Paraguay were knocked-out along with Brazil. A small consolation for this blog was the success of the Netherlands team who are now in the Semi-Final meeting Germany. If you look back to the blog of 21st June, I wrote “given that so many teams are playing so poorly, the Netherlands at 9/1 (Hills) look good value”. How right that looks now! Today, they are just 9/4 to lift the trophy.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.