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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Tuesday, 10 April 2012
A look at the National runners
I’m having a pretty rough time of it personally lately, and it’s taking a lot out of me. This is my favourite time of the year as a horseracing fan but, at the moment, I’m finding it difficult to generate enthusiasm. It’s likely that there will be no blog for the next few days as it’s my dear old mum’s funeral on Thursday and I will be travelling up to Liverpool for that tomorrow (Wednesday) and returning home on Friday. I do hope to have a blog on Saturday for the Grand National.
There are just a couple of flat racing meetings today and, as I’ve not looked at the flat yet, I’ll give them a miss. Once we have the Aintree meeting over on Saturday then I will do a recap of my tipping record for the 2011-12 jumps season, and from Monday I will concentrate on the flat.
I was disappointed to see Thursdays blog selection COOTEHILL beaten into 2nd. He hit the final fence hard when holding a slight advantage, but I’m not sure that cost him the race as the eventual winner Wessex King ran-on very well from the last fence. I overlooked Wessex King in this race which was a mistake. He’d won both his starts on good-to-firm going and I reckon the ground was faster than “good” at Ludlow last Thursday.
The Aintree meeting this week will be the final BBC televised Grand National meeting as, from next year, the meeting will be televised by Channel 4. The meeting opens with the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle featuring BIG BUCKS and it is unlikely that anything will trouble the champion staying hurdler. What is interesting is that Crack Away Jack is entered and has moved-on from Paul Nicholls to Tom George and this talented horse looks very well handicapped as a chaser. Later, the Betfred Bowl Chase over 3m1f looks a cracker and could provide a real turn-up of a result as plenty of these horses are entering unknown territory in terms of trip and class. The “Manifesto” novices chase over 2m4f looks tailor-made for CUE CARD, altho’ he may go for the Melling Chase over the same trip on Friday.
Saturday is all about the Grand National, and my early thoughts are to stick with one of my 3 selections in the race last year (when I advised Ballabriggs @ ½pt win, and ¼pt ew on both West End Rocker & The Tother One) and that is WEST END ROCKER. The likely soft going won’t phase him, he can jump the fences and he should stay the trip. The “National” is a race were it pays to be “in-the-van” as not many can get into contention from off the pace in the final circuit. I cannot really have any horses with a weight greater than 11st especially as it is likely that 30 of the 40 runners will be carrying less than 11st. Of those above the 11st thresh-hold, I do like PLANET OF SOUND who stays forever and will also handle the likely soft going. ACCORDING TO PETE definitely needs the going to be soft, but he’ll be up there and (providing he jumps the fences as he’s on the small side) he could sneak a place at 40/1. Another at the huge odds of 125/1 is MIDNIGHT HAZE who (for a 10yo) is lightly raced having had only 10 chase races of which he’s won 4. He likes to race prominently and he jumps well; he also stays 3-mile-plus and on just 10st he could give them all a run for their money. Remember, on Saturday morning it is likely that at least one bookmaker will offer eachway odds for 6-places on the race. So, we can look for long odds on some so-called no-hopers.
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