The 476th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
What a good ride Grand National winning jockey Liam Treadwell gave SUMMERY JUSTICE at Perth yesterday. The lad has not had a great time of it since moving-on from Venetia Williams yard, and this was only his 8th winner of this season. Given his ability, he should be better served in my opinion. As for SUMMERY JUSTICE, if you were on at the morning odds of 6/1 then well done you. He had to struggle a bit on the run-in to hold on but that was probably due to the going which was heavy in places – in fact, it was waterlogged in parts of the course judging by the splashes caused by the horses. He has now won 4 of his 8 starts when the going has the word "soft" in it (the official going was "soft, heavy in places"), and with only 10 races under rules this 8yo will be up to winning again if this weather keeps up (what happened to the hose-pipe ban?). Of course, not being a firm selection this winner won't count for my profit margin on the blog, but regular readers will know that there is much to be gained by visiting regularly and following the narrative.
The continuing wet weather will seriously affect racing today, so watch for non-runners and going changes from soft to heavy. I'm looking at Perth again and I like the look of MOLESKIN in the 2:30 there, which is a 3-mile, class 3 h'cap chase. Unfortunately, Aikman is a non-runner which leaves just 5 going to post, but so long as MOLESKIN does race too freely in front early-on (when he will be matched for strides with Railway Dillon) then he should have no trouble taking this as he stays the trip well, and he's won on soft going. The same cannot be said for the other 4 in the race, so current odds of 9/4 look good – if you can get on, take the 3/1 with Skybet, but they may only let you have a "fiver".
I'll be having a "back-to-lay" wager in the 3:00 at Perth on KNOCKANDO. Currently at 12/1, I'd be very surprised if this prominent runner who stays 3-mile well does not trade at less than 6.00 in-running and should trade at under 4.00.
At Beverley, I'm hoping that trainer E W Tuer has EASY TERMS fit and ready to race for the 3:10, which is a class 4 h'cap over 1m4f. Currently 12/1, if the mare is in the form of last season then she will be hard to keep out of the places and this looks a very weak class 4 h'cap on the formbook. This will probably be a "split" wager for me; with 4.00+ available "place-only" on the exchanges , I'll have £13 on at those odds and the balance of my £40 stake (ie. £27) on at 12/1 with one of the bookmakers.
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