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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Tuesday, 22 May 2012
Land the gamble
I really don't like Mondays. Looking back thru' my records, I nearly always lose on Mondays and yesterday was no exception. I had targeted a race at Newton Abbot – the 4:20 which was a 2-mile chase – and I had narrowed it down to 2 horses in the morning, Great Kicker and Dean's Grange; both of which looked well handicapped and at decent odds. With the morning favourite Mon Chevalier being a non-runner, and subsequent morning gamble Twyford going the same way, I really thought the couple I'd selected looked decent value, especially as I did not rate Nicky Henderson's Tornado D'Estruval and the new race fav Temple Lord is a right "monkey" and unreliable. Where I went wrong was I thought Dean's Grange would need the run, having been off for 218-days since last October, and so I lumped all my hard-earned wedge onto Great Kicker. I quickly knew my fate. Great Kicker was being ridden-along at halfway and weakened quickly, eventually being pulled-up. Dean's Grange travelled well thru'out, led 3-from-home and, tho' he was driven on the run-in, he won a shade cosily. I hate Mondays.
Some fairly ordinary horseracing again today. My local "flat" track Brighton hosts a meeting and this is a course specialists dream. Brighton is a real "marmite" of a course – horses either like it or loathe it. That said, the opening 5-furlong handicap could throw-up some value. The race fav is Cut Across, and that's what he's going to have to do having been drawn 10 of the 10 runners in this race. He's only had the one race, which he won on the AW at Lingfield in February. So, he's inexperienced, he's drawn widest of all, and it's his 1st run on turf and it's at the tricky track of Brighton. He may well end up a rated a lot higher than his rating today of OR67 but he could need about 10lb in-hand to take this. He has to be opposed, and I'm looking at C&D winner WELSH INLET. This mare has only won twice, but both wins have come at Brighton and she will handle today's going. At 11/2 (Corals) she looks fair value.
The only other race I'm looking at is at Towcester tonight, and that's the 3-mile handicap chase at 7:15. The fav for this race will be Jolly Boys Outing and, given he is in good form and won over C&D in March, that is no surprise. But, he's up 11lb since that last win to OR108 and so he meets the horse that was 2nd to him that day CRAIGLANDS on 11lb worse terms. CRAIGLANDS is a safe jumper who goes well racing right-handed and, on this improving going, this prominent runner could well take advantage of the weight he receives. The worry is that he can be a bit one-paced as he's gone 17 races since his last win (October 2009) and he's been 2nd 4-times, and 3rd 5-times in that period. However, at 8/1 generally (he's 17/2 with Vic Chandler) that's fair value. Personally, I can see him starting at about 6/1 for this tonight, and maybe a point shorter if there is a non-runner or two. He is 12.0 on Betfair and, as he's a prominent runner, there should be plenty of opportunity to trade-out and secure a profit in-running, if not going on to land the gamble.
Finally, I gave readers a great winner on Friday in ARABIAN STAR who was available at 13.0-14.0 just prior to the off and virtually made-all. I wrote that he would trade at under 5.00 in-running, and that he certainly did and, for those who traded-out their stake and then let it ride for a no-risk wager, well done you!
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Thanks from Wayward Lad.