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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Saturday, 12 March 2011

All eyes on Ruby Walsh today

It’s the last Saturday before the greatest racing Festival on earth – Cheltenham.

My antepost book is filled and while I wish I may have been a bit more aggressive with some of my staking (on Peddlers Cross, Ghizao and Poquelin) I’m happy with how things stand. The going is a bit of a concern, as the lack of recent rain and the prospect of none until maybe Wednesday make the likelihood of “good” going on the opening day a near certainty. It may be declared “good-to-soft” but when we see the race times then we’ll really know what it is.

For me, the lack of rain is the main reason that there has been a lack of confidence in the market about MASTER MINDED. He really does need to be able to get his toe in to show his very best form (didn’t have good-to-soft in the QMCC last year when well beaten). Thing is, I’m not sure that “good” going will suit Big Zeb down to the ground either, and I’m expecting a turn-up in the QMCC come Wednesday.

From the Horse Alert List (which has been doing well recently) we had CESIUM running yesterday. It was very disappointing and the horse is clearly out of love with the game. Don’t wager on him again until he shows his old zest. It must be infuriating for his owners and the trainer as the horse has plenty of ability – he just is not interested in racing anymore.

All eyes will be on Ruby Walsh at Sandown today as he tries to get a winner on the board before the Festival starts after a long period on the sidelines thru’ injury. Personally, I think he has a good chance on TITO BUSTILLO in the Imperial Cup.

I have a selection for those who are interested, in the final race at Sandown. It’s a 2m4f & 110 yard class 3 chase at 4:40. There are 8 runners with the joint-favs Peplum and Craiglands dominating the market. Peplum is on a hat-trick, but he does not get a yard further than 2m4f and the stiff uphill finish at Sandown will prevent him from winning in a close finish. Craiglands ran his best race in ages LTO, but that was over 3m1f. He last won over this sort of trip at Cheltenham and, having plenty of stamina, he won’t be stopping – but will he be quick enough? Personally, I like right-hand track specialist HOLMWOOD LEGEND. He’s lightly raced for a 10yo having had just 11 chase races, winning 4 all on right-hand tracks from 9 starts going RH. The going may be a bit quick for him, but he has run well (without winning) on good going before. As such, odds of 11/1 are value (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed).

Selection:
Sandown 4:40, HOLMWOOD LEGEND, ½pt each way @ 11/1 (Vic Chandler, BOG)

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Thanks from Wayward Lad

11 comments:

  1. RH track specialist HOLMWOOD LEGEND had these in trouble a long way out and romped home a good winner at 14/1 (Vic Chandler paid best odds guaranteed). That's a 8.40pts profit.

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  2. Top tipping Wayward Lad - very well done.

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  3. But were you on Westhill Lad?
    As usual for a Saturday, blog visits were down from a daily high in the week of 370 (and I have 520 followers on twitter) to just 150 before today's selection ran.
    But how many read the blog and then followed-up with a wager?
    Would readers feel better if they paid for the information up-front rather than getting it for free (with the option of making a donation from the winnings)?

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  4. Keep it free,Donations are the best way i think.

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  5. Well done again with your tips, I didnt back it as im saving for Cheltenham, over here in Ireland there is talk of Star Neuville in the champion Bumper but then talk is cheap, good luck next week

    Ray

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  6. I read the blog and backed it with a small wager.

    Superb tipping to end a great week.

    Thanks very much, hope it continues at Cheltenham

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  7. Just one small (losing) bet for me at Ayr today I'm afraid. I'll certainly keep close inspection on your selections next week and going forward.

    Can I ask why you put Holmwood Legend up as a selection and not also Tito Bustillo - was it just a question of value in the HL price that you didn't feel was there in the TB price?

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  8. Great tipping once again ! Cheltenham here we come !!

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  9. The were question-marks over Tito Bustillo with the going and also whether it was good enough off that rating(never mind Ruby Walsh's fitness etc). As it turned out, Paul Nicholls said about 10 mins b4 the race that Tito would have problems with the going, and it did.
    Holmwood being a right-hand track specialist should have been no longer than 3/1.

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  10. Great tipping Ian well done!

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  11. Thanks WL - Just trying to get a feel how you narrowed down all the racing yesterday to one selection. I can often find that the hard bit!!

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