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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Wednesday, 26 December 2012

Boxing Day Yankee


One of my favourite days of racing in the whole calendar – Boxing Day. I have some great memories of this day, including my namesake WAYWARD LAD winning the King George at Kempton 3 times, the best (in my opinion) being his last win in 1985. The weather has played havoc with the fixtures, but we still have plenty of decent racing to take advantage of.
We didn’t do badly last Saturday as I was able to have a 1pt win wager on MAJALA at Haydock at 5/2 after that was declared his preferred race at 12:24pm – just  14mins before he ran in the 12:40. Of course, he was a non-runner at Ascot, but the way he won at Haydock suggest he’d have won at Ascot too, had he taken part, and he was 7/1 for that race. My 2pt win selection HEY BIG SPENDER just wasn’t race fit, and I wasn’t to know that until we saw pictures of him at the start before the race. That is always a risk when a horse returns after a break, and it would suggest that the horse has a late season target, probably the Grand National. As for PRINCETON PLAINS, the horse was well there with 3 furlong to go but was taken on a wide line into the home straight (the home turn is a tight one at Ascot) which caused him to lose about half-a-dozen lengths on the leaders and his chance was gone. He was still only a length off being placed in the 1st-4 and eventually finished 6th.
Let’s look at the Alert List runners for Boxing Day:-
Kempton:
2:00 – MOLOTOF – I can’t see this horse winning to be honest.
2:35 – RAYA STAR – this trip of 2-mile will suit him much better than the 2m4f of LTO, he can go close.
3:10 – CHAMPION COURT – never shown any form beyond 2m5f so aiming for place money.
3:45 – VALID REASON & LOOSE CHIPS – Altho’ he’s only had 6 hurdle runs, I’ve had VALID REASON on my alert list since he won over 2m6f at Ascot in Nov’11 (his 2nd hurdle race). His 2 races this autumn have been solid considering they were over an inadequate trip and this 2m5f will be perfect, the soft ground won’t bother him and what’s more he has Barry Geraghty in the saddle.  LOOSE CHIPS won over C&D LTO and the runner-up only just failed to win NTO. I’m siding with VALID REASON.
Wetherby:
1:45 – CAPE TRIBULATION – ran an eye-catching race when 5th on 1st January at Cheltenham over 2m5f. Since then he’s improved 13lb as a hurdler and I reckon this 3-mile trip is what he wants as a chaser but if the ground is soft or worse then I’ll have to pass him over in favour of BALLYOLIVER @ 9/4 who will love soft/heavy and is bang in form.
2:20 – SKI SUNDAY – could have found a winning opportunity, not much value at 7/4 tho’.
2:55 – NO PLANNING – this 2m4f trip will suit him and he can win this off OR126 on the ground, he’s 100/30 at best.
Market Rasen:
2:10 – OVERYOU – a horse who needs a stamina test and this 3m5f chase will provide that!
Wincanton
2:50 – ROLLING ACES – should prove far too good for these, now odds-on at 4/5.
Ffos Las
2:20 – FIREBIRD FLYER – top-weight and giving lots away to 2nd-fav Bravo Bravo, not sure he’s capable of doing it.

Selections:
Kempton 3:10 – CUE CARD, 1pt win @ 6/1 – I reckon this horse could be exceptional over this 3-mile trip, and at 6/1 he’s worth a wager
Kempton 3:45 – VALID REASON, ½pt eachway @ 12/1

Boxing Day "win" Yankee
Wetherby 1:45 – BALLYOLIVER
Wetherby 2:55 – NO PLANNING
Market Rasen 2:10 – OVERYOU
Wincanton 2:50 – ROLLING ACES

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Thanks from Wayward Lad.

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