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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 22 December 2012
Spend a little time with me!
2:00 – REVE DE SIVOLA - this horse has been on my alert list for some years now as he was a very good novice hurdler. Personally, I don’t think he’s up to winning this unless the principals cannot handle this extreme going. However, I don’t think he disappointed as a chaser and I’d love to see him try that sphere again off OR138, as I reckon he’s a 150+ chaser at best, and he isn’t yet 8yo.
2:35 – WYCK HILL - As much as I like Wyck Hill, I really do think he’s been thrown-in the deep end here. He’s 6lb out of the handicap, and would have to run a career-best to even be in the frame. I’ll be frank here; I don’t think Hold On Julio is up to this level, even running off what could be a decent handicap mark, as he looked quite pedestrian to me in the Hennessey. I don’t think he’ll be helped by the heavy going either. I reckon HEY BIG SPENDER is a better horse than Roberto Goldback and so having a 4lb pull makes his advantage even bigger. If Ackertac stays this 3-mile trip (hasn’t shown any ability to stay 2m6f in 8 races beyond that trip) in heavy going, then I want to see a stewards enquiry. The “fly” is Katenko. Venetia Williams is walking on water this autumn with her chasers, but even she would need a miracle to make this horse win this after his poor debut run in this country last month. Unfortunately, I’ve missed the 9/2 available this morning and he’s only 7/2 now, but I think this is effectively a 2-horse race (ie, will Hold On Julio perform) and I’d be happy taking 9/4 on HEY BIG SPENDER. He’s a 2pt win wager, and I don’t make many of those!
3:10 – BOTHY / CASH AND GO / PRINCETON PLAINS - There are 3 from my alert list going in the “Ladbroke” hurdle and the one that strikes me as “under-the-radar” is PRINCETON PLAINS. He’s coming into this race in the form of his life, and he loves these big-field competitive handicap hurdles. I can see him being covered-up in 7th-10th place before making his move in the final half-mile. I cannot understand why this horse is now 28/1 as he hasn’t been inconvenienced on heavy ground in the past.
3:40 – MAJALA / MY BROTHER SYLVEST – Of this pair, I have a lot of time for MAJALA who really could be thrown-in off OR135. He’ll handle this ground alright and there is not fat in the price of the fav Ulck Du Lin. At 7/1 he’s an eachway steal.
When Haydock is heavy, it really is heavy, and I’m half-expecting it not to go on. I’m not making any selection there.
Ascot 2:35, HEY BIG SPENDER, 2pts win @ 7/2 (BetVictor, Bet365 Hills, all go BOG)
Ascot 3:10, PRINCETON PLAINS, ½pt eachway @ 28/1 (Bet365, Stan James, both go BOG & ¼ odds a place 1,2,3,4)
Ascot 3:40, MAJALA, ½pt eachway @ 7/1 (Bet365, Stan Paddy Power Hills, all go BOG & 5th odds a place 1,2,3)
Total = 4pts staked
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