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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Friday, 26 April 2013

Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown

The final major handicap of the jump season is run at Sandown, the Bet365 Gold Cup. No matter what they call the race, old hands know it as the "Whitbread" and that's the name under which the race had it's glory days. With a top-weight rated just OR149 in Michel Le Bon, this renewal is not the strongest we've seen and is possibly one of the weakest. Even so, I reckon this race could be an exciting one as there are some decent improving chasers in Well Refreshed, Away We Go, Same Difference, and Hadrian's Approach who all look capable of winning on their day. I also like the look of On Trend who didn't appreciate Cheltenham LTO, but won a good handicap here at Sandown in February. The ground may be a bit quick for On Trend, but I expect he'll run a good race even if he doesn't win, and at 33/1 he looks worthy of a "place-only" wager on the exchanges. The couple that I reckon will be fighting out the finish are Well Refreshed and Same Difference. Both are 10/1 with the sponsor, Bet365 who is paying 5-places eachway. Each will stay the trip, both come into the race in top form having won good races LTO. The ground being "good" will favour Same Difference, but Well Refreshed has looked such a good horse in winning his last 3 races (he's only had 6 chase races, and has won all 4 completed starts) and I cannot see the ground being an inconvenience to him winning.

The best wager on the jumps at Sandown tho', in my opinion, comes earlier in the afternoon at 2:40 in the Celebration Chase. I do not think anyone can rely on Sanctuaire showing his best foot. If he does then he should win, but he is a rogue. Finians Rainbow has looked a shadow of his former self this season and to wager on him is not logical. That leaves WISHFUL THINKING as the way to go. He's run as well as ever this season, confirming his novice season promise, and a repeat of his winning form of February at Newbury should see him take this at rewarding odds of 4/1 (available generally). 

Earlier this week I wrote that I would be streamlining my wagering this summer due to time constraints. As such, on the Flat racing I’m going to focus mainly on those races which are “Listed” class or better. There are plenty of them throughout the Flat season and, because there are a lot of them, a fair percentage are “weak”. That’s the angle that I am hoping to exploit. There are a couple today which I think offer very decent opportunities. At Sandown in the Group 3 Gordon Richards Stakes at 3:15, AL KAZEEM looks to have this race at his mercy if he can repeat the form of his only run last season when winning off a very long break. I would expect Ektihaam to try and stretch his stamina, but that may well work in the favour of AL KAZEEM by making it a true-run race with a good pace. At 3/1 with Bet365 and Ladbrokes, those odds are too good to ignore. 
At Leicester, I reckon it will be a major upset if ALJAMAAHEER does not win the King Richard III Stakes (Listed Race) at 3:55. As such, he's heading the market, but odds of 11/10 with Bet365 and Betfred look generous as I reckon he'll be odds-on at SP, trading at around 4/5.

Selections:
My final recommended wager of this jumps season is 1pt win @ 4/1 on WISHFUL THINKING in the 2:40 at Sandown.
On the Flat racing:
Sandown 3:15, AL KAZEEM, ½pt win @ 3/1 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)
Leicester 3:55, ALJAMAAHEER, ½pt win @ 11/10 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 2pts staked

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5 comments:

  1. If I'd known that WISHFUL THINKING would drift to 5/1 for this race I'd have made him and eachway wager. I thought he was given a poorly judged ride by Richard Johnson.

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  2. AL KAZEEM paid his way with a easy win, having the race in the bag a long way out as I thought he would.

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  3. Great effort from SAME DIFFERENCE to be 2nd with 11st 7lb. I thought he'd win when jumping the final fence in front, but the weight told on the run-in.

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