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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87
from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)
Total Staked = £609.00
Thursday, 27 February 2014
No time to think - off to a Flyer
There are a couple of meetings today over the jumps, at Ludlow and Taunton, and I've a few runners from my alert list. At Ludlow, in the 2:30 there's CLOUDY JOKER, in the 3:00 DANCINGTILMIDNIGHT, and in the 3:30 BALLYOLIVER.
Cloudy Joker hasn't stopped improving since going chasing, and is unbeaten from 3 chase races this season. He beat today's race-fav Benbens when they met in December (a good novice chase this one, as subsequent winner Bobcatbilly was in 3rd) and he meets Benbens on 7lb worse terms for that wining margin of a "head". Benbens is very lightly race for a 9yo and this will be only his 2nd chase race, but he seems very consistent and should go well today. However, CLOUDY JOKER is only a 6yo and is very much on the upgrade and I'm expecting him to beat Benbens again. Of the others, Zarzal looks harshly on OR130 and Avoca Promise and Midnight Promise have little chance. This race looks a straight match between CLOUDY JOKER and Benbens and, at odds of 9/4, CLOUDY JOKER looks the value.
I've been waiting a long time for the return to the track of DANCINGTILMIDNIGHT, but current best odds of 6/4 are no value at all to me. A race to watch.
The ground is probably still a bit too soft for BALLYOLIVER, even tho' he's slipped 7lb to OR124 from his rating at the start of this season when he ran favourably at Wincanton on good-to-soft. The race-fav is Roalco De Farges, who pulled-up LTO after a break of 23-months after running 2nd to Tidal Bay at Sandown off OR134. He's on OR128 today, so if he's fit enough he'll be hard to beat. The 2nd-fav Brass Tax comes here off a break of 412-days but his rating of OR135 seems stiff considering his form to-date. The trip and ground will not inconvenience C&D winner Firebird Flyer. He beat Ballyoliver here when he won in Nov-12, and meets that rival on 4lb better terms despite having won by over 3-lengths. We know he's in form having chased home Emperor's Choice at Ffos Las LTO, and that form has been upheld since then. At 6/1 (William Hill and Betfred) he looks the value eachway wager. The others in the race either want a shorter trip than 3-mile, or better ground.
At Taunton, horse alert runner MASSENA looks hard to beat in the 3:10 there, but it could prove to be a tricky race to wager in. There seems to be a lot of confidence towards the Paul Nicholls runner Sound Investment, and you cannot discount Lord Of House returning to form in this lower grade of race. It may pay to watch this race.
The review of the novice championships at the Cheltenham Festival is under-way and I'm hoping to get it out to donators by Friday evening, but it may have to be put-back to Sunday afternoon due to the pressures of time.
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Ludlow 3:30 FIREBIRD FLYER, £10 eachway @ 6/1 (William Hill & Betfred)
All the best from Wayward Lad