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Record of the blog selections

LOSS for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00


Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, at cumulative stakes of £5,726 - which has resulted in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 equivalent to a Return on Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Saturday, 9 April 2011

Signing-off the Jumps with the winner of the National

The horse I expect to win the National is BALLABRIGGS.

That’s what I wrote in yesterday’s blog (which was actually published on the web at 22:17 on Friday evening). Could I make myself any clearer as to which horse I expected to win the race? Some people did, and thought I confused matters by discussing the chances of other horses in the race. Well, I’m not letting them spoil my party.

I reckon I got this result absolutely spot on.
Of how the race would be run, I wrote:
the best place to be is “in-the-van”, and that if your horse isn’t within 6-lengths of the leader in the 1st-8 jumping “Bechers” on the 2nd-circuit, then it’s not going to win.
BALLABRIGGS was never out of the 1st-3 in the entire race, and led most of the way.

Of 3rd placed Don’t Push It, I wrote:
if he finishes then he will be in the 1st-6 without a doubt, and there's nothing from last year’s race that can beat him – but 9/1 is no value.

Of The Midnight Club who came 6th (which was paid as a place by Vic Chandler who I recommended having your wagers with):
he’s on a good mark of OR149 but he would not be able to hold-off DON’T PUSH IT

Of Big Fella Thanks, who faded from a prominent position at the last fence to finish 7th, I wrote:
He was 4th last year (and 6th the year before) so he knows what to do, but he’s unlikely to win as he’s got nothing left at the end of the race to win it – he’ll just plod home in his own time; but at 16/1 if he’s 6th then Vic Chandler will pay you £50 for your £10 eachway wager (£20 staked) on him, at 6/4 to get round in one piece, it’s a no thanks; we want a winner.

And a winner is what I gave you – BALLABRIGGS @ ½pt win @ 16/1

I also advised another couple of small eachway wagers on The Tother One and West End Rocker, but both of those horses fell. I did think immediately after the race that they were the horse that suffered fatalities, but I was wrong about that (can’t get everything right).

From the Horse Alert List, PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE made it a cracking day for the blog winning at 10/1. I did think the going was too quick for him, so I did not advise a wager. However, he was running so well during the race that it was clear the ground was not a problem and, as such, I took 7/1 in-running with Betfair. I understand that’s no help to traditional punters, but there are many ways to win these days and you have to take advantage of what is available. That is why I provide a narrative (even tho’ some out there criticise me for doing that) so that, when combined with the very latest information, you can make your own mind up whether or not to bet.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

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Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

8 comments:

  1. Ian, well done. You were spot on - without question. Thanks for the post on HCE it has been hugely popular and that is all thanks to your talents. It is great to be part of such a spirited blogging community and pulling together really makes it something special. Thanks for making the Grand National a highlight for HCE.

    Regards,
    Jason

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  2. Very well done mate.
    Followed your advised and also backed Balla for more in running, great blog keep it up!

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  3. A massive thank you all the way from Brisbane(Australia). Your write ups are always first class. Our massive Easter Jumps carnival @OAkbank(Sth Aust) starts next week. Your thoughts would be appreciated-Wink/Wink.

    Cheers from Oz- home of Black Caviar!!!

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  4. Well done Ian a great call.

    Keep up the good work

    Mark

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  5. Well done WL, I thought Ballabriggs would run out of steam but happy to be proved wrong!

    On another note I see from reading some of your historical blogs you place great emphasis on trainer form and those with one runner at meetings. I've always thought this to be a useful angle and I've been doing some tiny stake Canadian/Heinz to see if I could hit the jackpot these past few weeks. I've not managed to retire yet but managed to nail E Dunlops and A Baileys winners yesterday for a small profit. Shame I missed the Scott and Arbuthnot winners at Ascot today. I've also been unlucky in missing a Channon runner that won at 12/1 a few weeks back and backing Dvinsky who was 2nd at 10's.

    There's certainly a winner finding angle in this analysis but I'm still coming to terms with betting horses half blindly, e.g the Bailey runner last night which I couldn't have had if I'd studied the race in more detail. It's just goes to show how important being a yard in form can be. Be interested in your thoughts as the flat season kicks in.

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  6. Well done! I backed Ballabriggs at 33/1 back in October and a few times since and he gave me my best result ever. Wonderful performance from the whole team.

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  7. Thanks to everyone who has commented on the blog. Without feedback from readers, you can sometimes feel like you are talking (writing) to yourself!
    To Westhill Lad: for me, trainer-form is an exceptional winner-finding tool - tho' as you have discovered with the Alan Bailey winner, it is a system that requires "faith" not logic. Always remember, the horse with the best form is the favourite - but the best horse does not always win! Trainer-form will provide winners at longer odds. The blog "Lonesome Pundit" (see link) provides trainers-in-form lists and selections.

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