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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 9 April 2011
Signing-off the Jumps with the winner of the National
That’s what I wrote in yesterday’s blog (which was actually published on the web at 22:17 on Friday evening). Could I make myself any clearer as to which horse I expected to win the race? Some people did, and thought I confused matters by discussing the chances of other horses in the race. Well, I’m not letting them spoil my party.
I reckon I got this result absolutely spot on.
Of how the race would be run, I wrote:
the best place to be is “in-the-van”, and that if your horse isn’t within 6-lengths of the leader in the 1st-8 jumping “Bechers” on the 2nd-circuit, then it’s not going to win.
BALLABRIGGS was never out of the 1st-3 in the entire race, and led most of the way.
Of 3rd placed Don’t Push It, I wrote:
if he finishes then he will be in the 1st-6 without a doubt, and there's nothing from last year’s race that can beat him – but 9/1 is no value.
Of The Midnight Club who came 6th (which was paid as a place by Vic Chandler who I recommended having your wagers with):
he’s on a good mark of OR149 but he would not be able to hold-off DON’T PUSH IT
Of Big Fella Thanks, who faded from a prominent position at the last fence to finish 7th, I wrote:
He was 4th last year (and 6th the year before) so he knows what to do, but he’s unlikely to win as he’s got nothing left at the end of the race to win it – he’ll just plod home in his own time; but at 16/1 if he’s 6th then Vic Chandler will pay you £50 for your £10 eachway wager (£20 staked) on him, at 6/4 to get round in one piece, it’s a no thanks; we want a winner.
And a winner is what I gave you – BALLABRIGGS @ ½pt win @ 16/1
I also advised another couple of small eachway wagers on The Tother One and West End Rocker, but both of those horses fell. I did think immediately after the race that they were the horse that suffered fatalities, but I was wrong about that (can’t get everything right).
From the Horse Alert List, PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE made it a cracking day for the blog winning at 10/1. I did think the going was too quick for him, so I did not advise a wager. However, he was running so well during the race that it was clear the ground was not a problem and, as such, I took 7/1 in-running with Betfair. I understand that’s no help to traditional punters, but there are many ways to win these days and you have to take advantage of what is available. That is why I provide a narrative (even tho’ some out there criticise me for doing that) so that, when combined with the very latest information, you can make your own mind up whether or not to bet.
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Thanks from Wayward Lad