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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Saturday, 8 March 2014

The highway to Cheltenham

Yesterday’s blog pointed readers towards good winner with GREYWELL BOY winning at an SP of 5/4 after being highlighted at the morning odds of 6/4.  My personal line in the sand is not to advise wagers when the odds are under 9/4, so I’m taking no credit for this win nor am I adjusting my profit for the season on the back of it.
Saturday brings us 3 jump meetings at Sandown, Ayr and Chepstow.
This period before the Cheltenham Festival can see some ordinary races presented to the public, but there are always winning opportunities.

At Sandown, the Class 3 handicap chase at 2:40 looks interesting. The Paul Nicholls trained Merrion Square is familiar to readers of the blog as we’ve had a couple of wagers on him this season. Unfortunately, he’s being ridden by an amateur rider tomorrow, so I’m not confident about placing a wager on him. One that I like in this race is DE LA BECH but trainer Phil Hobbs does not do well with chasers at Sandown (3 wins from 38 runners). 
I’ve not got any angles on the Imperial Cup Hurdle, it is one of those races that passes me by as I’m too engrossed in sorting thru’ the handicaps for next week’s Cheltenham Festival.  

It is the final race on the Sandown card that always catches my eye.
This Class 3 handicap chase over 2m4f & 110 yards. The ground probably isn’t soft enough for Aachen who is a real mud-lover, and the same goes for last year’s winner Arbeo altho’ he does comes here 3lb below the rating he won off last year. The 11yo Midnight Sail looks to be regressing, and would probably find the ground too soft, and the same can be said for the 12yo Overclear.

Ice ‘N’ Easy ran a stinker LTO, but that was probably the heavy ground which he hates. If that is  ignored, his January run at Kempton was a cracker which he should’ve won but, even so, he still does not look at good a prospect as Denali Highway.    

DENALI HIGHWAY is the horse that I really like in this race.  He’s won going RH at Leicester and Huntingdon, he’s best on soft ground, and he’s won twice at 2m5f. I can excuse his first couple of runs this season as they were over too long a trip, and he looked like he hated the driving rain LTO; as such, he’s dropped a couple of pounds to OR126 and given the horse a winning opportunity. At the start of the season I thought he could develop into a 140+ chaser and if you consider he was only a length off beating No Planning in November (and he’s now rated OR140) you can see the potential he has here.  

Ballyallia Man also ran in this race last year finishing 3rd off OR130, and now he’s racing off OR122. I can excuse that run as it was on heavy ground, which he’s never won on from 4 races, and he’ll appreciate the soft ground more (2 wins from 3 races on soft). The issue is whether he’ll be able to run to his best form when fresh as he’s usually needed a run.  Flaming George has only ever won races with 3 or 4 runners. Hit The Headlines has never won a chase and looks held by the handicapper.  The novice chaser Tempest River found this trip too much in December, and tho’ you can ignore her run LTO when she was outclassed, it’s not likely she’ll be winning this.

The ground at both Ayr and Chepstow is heavy, and I’m not going to try and find a winner at either track.

Early odds on the race (Friday afternoon) suggest that DENALI HIGHWAY will be about 7/1 and that makes him eachway value, as it is hard to see him finishing outside of the 1st-3.  The two who could give him most to do are Ice ‘N’ Easy and Ballyallia Man and for a bit of fun I’m going to combine them in 6 x exacta’s

Sandown 5:00 DENALI HIGHWAY, £5 eachway & £5 win @ 7/1 with Bet Victor (BOG)
Total Staked = £15

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