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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87
from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)
Total Staked = £609.00
Saturday, 11 April 2015
This is it! The 2015 Grand National
Before that, yesterdays selection Cue Card ran a brave race and I thought he was going to win when going-on after 4-out, but Don Cossack was phenomenal. I've rated the race thru' Johns Spirit who ran a cracker to be 3rd, and in my opinion DON COSSACK ran the performance of the season and I've rated it at 181.
On to todays racing at Aintree, and I have already looked at the National runners earlier in the week and produced a preliminary shortlist. With so little chasing experience (the Irish National is nowhere near as tough a race as this to win), I just cannot have the fav Shutthefrontdoor who is to be ridden by AP McCoy. The greatest jump jockey of all time has said he will retire immediately if he wins, but I think he'll be around a bit longer yet. Expect a mountain of money on him today and I expect he'll start as the 6/1 fav, maybe even shorter. As I rate him a 25/1 chance, there is no value whatsoever in him.
Before I go on, check out the bookies terms before having a wager. Bet Victor are paying 6-places to quarter-odds a place, and Bet365, Skybet, Boyles, Paddy Power, Stan James, Ladbrokes and Corals are paying 5-places, but William Hill are only paying 4-places! If you bet with Bet365 use their special Grand National page as they are refunding 50% of all stakes up to £125 win or lose.
This year looks a particularly tricky race to work out and I would suggest having 3 or 4 selections at eachway with the hope of finding the winner and a couple of places.
Rocky Creek should be the fav, and 11st 3lb is a cracking weight for this race. I expect him to finish in the 1st-5 home. Odds of 10/1 (Bet365, Boyles, Stan James and Ladbrokes) look fair for a ew wager.
The Druids Nephew looks ideal for this and comes here on the back of a LTO win at Cheltenham. He will be up there in contention from a long way out and odds of 14/1 look very generous to me as he should be trading at 10/1.
Soll is another who comes into this race bang in form, and he's completed the National course before, back in 2013 he was 7th in the race. He looks much improved now and odds of 20/1 look fair value.
An old friend of mine is Godsmejudge, and he may not have run well LTO but he's been aimed at this race all season. Currently 22/1, he should be trading under 16/1 in my opinion.
The last one on my shortlist is First Lieutenant who is the ride of talented female jockey Nina Carberry. This one has shortened in the market from 33/1 on Wednesday to 20/1 now and will be the subject of a hot of support from once-a-year punters, so may get shorter in the market yet. The value has gone on this horse now (in my opinion) as he's a 25/1 chance.
I've also had an antepost wager on Spring Heeled, but I've lost confidence in this horse. He may run a big race but I cannot see him winning.
I have an antepost wager on Godsmejudge already, so today I'm adding:
The Druids Nephew with £5 eachway at 14/1,
Soll with £5 eachway @ 20/1
If you don't already have a wager on Godsmejudge, then place £5 eachway on him at 22/1.
Place the wagers with Bet365 and take advantage of the money-back offer.