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Record of the blog selections

Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Friday, 4 December 2015

The Betting Bank has doubled

It has been a quiet week for the blog as there have been no realistic opportunities for a wager. However, we could have a busy weekend, starting today.

Before that though, last weekend we topped £500 profit for the blog selections which is more than "double" what my original bank was.  As such, I will be increasing the stakes of wagers which will (I hope) accelerate the future gains. The stakes advised on the blog are for guidance only and are a way of measuring success.  I am aware that some of you out there are staking a much more than the advised stakes (and some of you stake less) and are reaping the rewards!

Friday brings us meetings at Exeter, Sandown and Sedgefield. While there is nothing suitable at Sedgefield, there are some potential opportunities elsewhere.  At Sandown, there is a Class 4 novices handicap hurdle at 3:40pm over 2-mile which includes an entry for the interesting Proofreader. I don't usually drop to Class 4 when looking for a wager, but this looks a unique opportunity as Proofreader (who is on my alert list following his LTO win) is a half-brother to the Grade 1 Dubai World Cup winner African Story. That alone does not make his a wagering opportunity, but he is fairly talented for a hurdler having a "flat" rating of OR91 and, last-time-out, he showed some of that inherent ability when winning his 1st hurdle race in a fast time in emphatic fashion. Unfortunately, the best odds available are 11/8, and so I cannot make Proofreader an advised wager.

Before that race, we have the Class 3 handicap chase for amateur riders over 3-mile and this race includes Umberto D'Olivate, who was last seen running 3rd behind Saroque at Exeter and added to my alert list as a consequence. The form of that Exeter race has been upheld, and I'm confident that Umberto D'Olivate can run well today.  The question is whether he can concede 21lb to the 6yo Conas Taoi who has won 5 chase races since 21st June and who has been raised 10lb for his most recent win. I think he can, as he ran well off OR132 this time last year, and his rider Joshua Newman has a 5lb claim implying that he is effectively running off OR122 today. Last years winner Firm Order has slipped 8lb to OR119, but he needs a major form revival given his recent efforts. The 2nd-fav Silvergrove usually needs his seasonal debut to get race-fit, and he may struggle today. Current odds of 5/1 suggest we can take a chance with Umberto D'Olivate as I cannot see him finishing any worse than 2nd, and he would be 5/2 in my book to win.

On 29th October, we had a wager on Woodford County and he ran a stinker.  He's out again today at Exeter in the 3m6f handicap chase at 1:40pm. What is in his favour today is that he stays this marathon trip and is likely to be placed, but he's one-paced. He is well-handicapped though, and that may be enough to see him go close, as the market leaders St Dominick and As De Fer have to prove themselves at this sort of trip. Heronshaw has the potential to stay this trip, but is unproven and this is only his 2nd chase race. As such, I'm more inclined towards Auvergnat who is another unoproven at this trip but the 5yo ran well over 3-mile LTO and this expensive purchase (220,000 Euros) could be finding his way. Overall, this race has the look of being wide open, and nothing gives me confidence for a wager.

I'm placing an eachway wager on UMBERTO D'OLIVATE at 11/2 with Bet Victor (quarter-odds a place 1st or 2nd) as that looks good value to me.

Selection
Sandown 3:10pm UMBERTO D'OLIVATE; £5 eachway AND £5 win @ 11/2 with Bet Victor (quarter-odds a place 1st or 2nd)
Total £15 staked


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