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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 26 December 2015
Boxing Day bumper card
It is a really busy day of horseracing today so we will get straight into it and endeavour to make today a profitable one. I reckon on a day like today with so much racing that you can find some great wagers away from the main races where most punters focus.
Yes, the Kempton card is a cracker and the "King George" looks a race to savour, but there little value in the market. Both Don Cossack and Vautour ar 2/1 and 7/2 respectively, offer little value as both need to show they will stay 3-miles in this company on this side of the Irish Sea. If Don Cossack runs to his Punchestown Gold Cup form of last April then he will be thereabouts, but he is no 2/1 chance in this top-class field. The one who I think is "under-the-radar" is Silviniaco Conti who - despite having won the race for the past 2 years and who always comes on 10lb+ for his opening chase run - is at 10/1. However, this is a tricky race to fathom as Smad Place, Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti will ensure there is no hiding place for those with doubtful stamina.
The Christmas Hurdle at 2:45pm has a 1/3 fav in Faugheen, but he's not worthy of those odds in this race in my opinion. On my ratings, there is very little to choose between Faugheen and THE NEW ONE and at 8/1 the latter horse is tremendous value in this race. We all know THE NEW ONE is one of the best hurdlers around and he's very consistent. Faugheen may have won this race last year but the opposition was weak, and I'm expecting him to be turned-over today.
It is disappointing that we have lost the Wetherby meeting as that has taken away one of the bst 3-mile handicap chases of the day. At Wincanton, the 3m1f handicap chase at 1:05pm looks there for the taking with a very poor field competing. I would not want to wager on Astigos winning, as he's a real plodder with just 1 win from 43 races. Marden Court the 5yo has not shown he will find this trip in his sphere; and top-weight Umberto D'Olivate ran a shocker LTO and cannot be relied upon. Letemgo stays this trip over hurdles and this is just his 3rd chase race, but he can jump a fence, in slowly. However, the 8yo Shockingtimes is also a reliable jumper and has been unfortunate to meet some well-handicapped horses recently. He can win a very weak race at the decent odds of 7/1.
Kempton 2:35 THE NEW ONE, £10 win @ 8/1 (available generally)
Wincanton 1:05pm SHOCKINGTIMES, £5 eachway @ 8/1 (available generally)