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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Sunday, 9 October 2016

Good effort from A Good Skin

Just a quick message on this bright Sunday morning.

What a cracking run yesterday from A GOOD SKIN, and as I predicted he was the subject of a gamble from 16/1 to an SP of 9/1 - and he beat all the main market rivals in coming 3rd.  Unfortunately, he was beaten by 2 horses that were relatively unconsidered - Potters Cross a 9yo from the Rebecca Curtis stable, and Buckhorn Timothy a 25/1 chance. Both confounded the formbook, although you may have  considered Potters Cross if you were attached to the Curtis stable. We now have to seriously consider every runner from that Curtis stable and anticipate considerable improvement.

I missed a couple of winners yesterday from my alert list in Rock The Kasbah and Ballyoptic, but you cannot bet on all of them and if I gave 6 selections a day you would soon all get fed-up. My aim is to find the best value available from my knowledge and I thought I did that yesterday with A Good Skin.  

Onto today, and from my alert list Arpege D'Alene looks nailed-on in the novice chase at 2:15pm at Chepstow. He was highly tried in a couple of novice chases last Autumn without winning, and a repeat of that form would see him win easily. He is about 20lb better over hurdles than his rivals, so with a clear round I cannot see him being beaten. As his odds are under 9/4 I cannot advise a wager (as I do not recommend wagers at odds under 9/4) but really Arpege D'Alene should be about 4/7 and not his current 6/4 (he's 7/4 with Stan James).

There is a cracking handicap chase at Chepstow at 4:00pm with several horses off my alert list running: Irish Cavalier, Voix D'Eaux, Junction Fourteen and Double Shuffle. I'd say that Irish Cavalier has a favourites chance as he's a quality horse, possibly 160+ at best and his trainer Rebecca Curtis has her string flying. Voix D'Eaux possibly wants 3-mile, and Junction Fourteen may want softer ground, but will likely go very well. I cannot see Sire De Grugy going well at this trip.  Of my alert list horses, I like the chance of Double Shuffle who was likely over the top LTO but ran a cracker at the Cheltenham Festival which was only his 4th chase race.
If you can get the 15/2 that is worth an eachway wager.

Since sending out to those on the email list, the 15/2 has gone and the best odds are 7/1 which still represents value as I reckon the horse is a 5/1 chance.

Chepstow 4:00pm DOUBLE SHUFFLE, £5 eachway @ 15/2 with available generally

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