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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Wednesday, 9 November 2016

Bangor, Wednesday 9th November

I'm stunned this morning by the news from America but, perhaps in this tumultuous year of 2016, I (we) shouldn't be.

Finally, the rains have arrived and we have ground likely to be getting softer by the minute. Although there are three jumps meetings today, the only race that comes into focus is the Class 2, 3-mile handicap chase at Bangor at 1:50pm.  There has been some rain overnight and the ground should be good-to-soft.

Most of the 14 runners going to post have some sort of chance, and I am familiar with most of them.  We were on the early fav Ballykan when he ran 3rd LTO, over 2m5f at Market Rasen. We know he stays 3-mile but, with a couple of wins over 2m4f this summer, he looked in the handicappers grip LTO and can he find further improvement up in trip. We were also on Beg To Differ when he was last on the track, on the opening day at the last Cheltenham Festival where he slipped and unseated his rider mid-race as the e field headed out onto the 2nd-circuit. This horse is one I am expecting big things of this season, but his trainer Jonjo O'Neill is in a terrible run of form, and it is a leap of faith in the horse to expect him to be right when all others in the stable are not.

Although I respect the Alan King trained pair of Sego Success and Ziga Boy, it is likely that both will come on for the run. But then King won this race 3 years ago with a seasonal debutant (this blog was on that winner at 25/1), and King had some good words to say about Ziga Boy last week.

There has been a significant market move this morning for the Sue Smith trained 7yo Smooth Stepper, who is relatively unexposed but, in my opinion, will be a better horse on softer ground. The horse that catches my eye is one that I had a personal wager on at Kempton in April - Valadom. This 7yo has an awful lot of chasing experience from when racing in France, but is relatively unexposed here in the UK, especially over this trip. He ran well in that Kempton race in April, and then followed up with an impressive win NTO over 3-mile at Uttoxeter in May.  Not surprisingly, he was outpaced over hurdles on his seasonal debut last month and he appears to be aimed at this race (whereas others are using the race as a pipe-opener). He will enjoy the ground, even if it gets a bit softer, and he enjoys racing prominently which is an advantage at Bangor.  Odds of 8/1 (Bet Victor and William Hill) are available, and 9/1 with Stan James (but that will probably go soon), are fair value as I reckon VALADOM should be joint-fav at 5/1 with Ballykan.

Selection
Bangor 1:50pm VALADOM, £5 eachway @ 8/1 

1 comment:

  1. VALADOM wins at 7/1 (advised at 8/1) making-all.
    And there was plenty of 12.50+ (11/1) available on the exchanges in the hour before the race.

    ReplyDelete