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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Thursday, 8 December 2016

Lookahead to the weekend

Opportunities for value wagers have been thin on the ground the past couple of weeks but, come Friday, that could all change as we have a solid couple of days of racing action with meetings at Cheltenham, Bangor and Doncaster. 



Today (Thursday) we have 3 meetings at Newcastle, Taunton and Warwick but value opportunities are thin on the ground.  At Taunton we have good-to-firm ground in December and, as a result, several of the races have 4 or fewer runners including both the class 3 chases.

At Newcastle, where the ground is a respectable good-to-soft, there is an interesting Class 3 novices chase at 12:40pm.  The 5yo Waiting Patiently went into my notebook when he won his debut chase last month and although the handicapper has rated him at OR136 he looks potentially a 10lb better horse than that. He should be capable of beating Forest Bihan who also won his chase debut last month, and who is a more experienced hurdler. While Waiting Patiently stays 2m4f, Forest Bihan does not appear to hold similar stamina reserves and that could be essential in what looks a decent novice chase. Also in the race is Ash Park who ran 2nd in his chase debut over 2m4f when he (perhaps) did not see out the trip, but he did have a couple of NTO winners behind him including the useful looking Knockgraffon - so maybe that form is a lot better than it looked. There is plenty of 11/2 available on Ash Park, and he could be the one to put into a forecast with the fav Waiting Patiently.

At Warwick at 1:20pm there is a very decent "mares" Listed chase over 2m4f, and were it over 2-mile then I am sure Stephanie Frances would be the fav. However, it is debatable whether she will stay this trip, as she didn't as a hurdler. Briery Belle has been aimed at this race since winning her chase debut last month at Carlisle over 2m4f when she looked an impressive, natural chaser - as such she is a worthy fav. Desert Queen also won her debut chase when beating a useful experienced rival over 3-miles. Se will not be far away, but having to concede 6lb to the fav Briery Belle will be tough. Rock On The Moor was the best of these over hurdles, coming 2nd at Cheltenham in the "Mares" hurdle over 2m4f.  She has had a run over fences in Ireland which showed she needed more experience at jumping, and it is interesting that her capable trainer has sent her over from Ireland to Warwick for this. She will need to improve a lot on what she showed LTO though. The Organist beat Briery Belle at level weights over 3-mile in March, and she probably would have won her debut chase but for a bad error at the 2nd-last fence which cost her the race. Today she has Barry Geraghty in the saddle and this is the ride he's come to Warwick for (he has only one other booked ride on an exposed horse in the NH flat race). Odds of 9/2 are generally available and they look enticing in what should be a very informative mares chase race.

You can never be too sure in these novice chases so, unless you are super confident, it is best to keep stakes small.  No advised wagers today, but those amongst you who are more adventurous have some scope in the races described above.  I'm sure we will have a wager tomorrow.

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