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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Thursday, 6 April 2017

Aintree Fesival - Day 1 (Thursday)

Small fields and short fav's today at Aintree, so "value" may be in short supply.

It really is a great feast for the horseracing fan with 4 Grade 1 races on todays card and they start at 1:45pm with the 2m4f Novices Chase which should go to the fav TOP NOTCH.  We were on TOP NOTCH at Cheltenham and I feel we were most unlucky that day as had he jumped the 2nd-last fence cleanly (he dropped about 4-lengths) then I am as sure as I can be that he would have won.  There are plenty out there who think Yorkhill had something up his sleeve, but time will tell on that score.  I have TOP NOTCH about 10lb ahead of these on my ratings and he is almost certain to be followed home by Cloudy Dream who won over this sort of trip (as a hurdler) at Doncaster. It may be worth taking the straight-forecast on this pair.

Next up at 2:20pm is the "Doom Bar" Juvenile Hurdle over 2m1f and again is should go to the fav in DEFI DU SEUIL who is so far ahead of the other 7 in the race in ability that it may be only not finishing the race that prevents him from winning.  He is certainly not flashy and, as such, many pundits snipe at this horse, but DEFI DU SEUIL can't do any more than beat the horses he races against and he's been very good at doing that this season. I expect him to remain unbeaten as a hurdler but whatever happens today he looks very exciting for next season whether he goes for the Champion Hurdle or novice chasing and the Arkle.

At 2:50pm we have possibly the most competitive race of the day in the Grade 1 Betway Bowl over 3m1f.  The race is between the 3 market leaders: last years winner Cue Card, the Irish challenger Empire Of Dirt, and the 6yo Bristol De Mai. Up first, Cue Card and this track suits him much better than Cheltenham and we could see the best performance of his season in this, as he won this in a canter last year.  If he can match the level he showed at Ascot in February over 2m5f then he will win today in the same fashion as he won here last year. I'm not sure about Empire Of Dirt as he was comprehensively beaten in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham, and much has been made of his run when 2nd to subsequent Gold Cup winner Sizing John in February over this sort of trip. Personally, he needs to find at least 7lb on that February run to come close to Cue Card on an "ordinary" day, and if Cue Card hits the spot then Empire Of Dirt will be soon toiling. Bristol De Mai is more interesting as a challenger. His win in the Peter Marsh Handicap at Haydock in January confirmed he stays this trip, and though outclassed in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham he was going better than Cue Card when the latter fell 3-out.  There is likely to be a decent pace in this race and that will suit BRISTOL DE MAI and odds of 6/1 look value to me. 

I'm going to split my stake on this race between Cue Card and Bristol Du Mai, as I really cannot see Empire Of Dirt winning and the remainder are all outclassed. 
BRISTOL DU MAI - £9.50 @ 6/1 (available generally)
CUE CARD - £5.50 @ 7/4 (available generally)
Total Stake = £15

The Betway Aintree Hurdle at 3:25pm could be a race that sees the hot-fav beaten, as this 2m4f trip will be the furthest that Champion Hurdler Buveur Dair has raced over and, on my ratings at least, based on their best form shown this season there is not that much between the fav and the 2nd-fav The New One who has won this race before and is a proven stayer. Of course, if Buveur Dair is as good at this trip as he was in the Champion Hurdle then it's "game over", but there is a slight doubt and I would not be a taker at odds of 2/5.

The Foxhunters Chase over 2m5f at 4:05pm is not the sort of race I usually wager in, and it looks to be between the market leaders On The Fringe and Pasha Du Polder.  Of the pair, this shorter trip should suit On The Fringe more than the 3m2f of Cheltenham LTO (race won by Pasha Du Polder) and he should win this in the same fashion that he did last year.

Advised Wager
Aintree 2:50pm
BRISTOL DU MAI - £9.50 @ 6/1 (available generally)
CUE CARD - £5.50 @ 7/4 (available generally)
Total Stake = £15

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