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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Thursday, 5 October 2017
Jump racing steps up a gear
Just 7 horses go to post for this race yet it looks difficult to fathom as, at this stage of the season, fitness can be the most important factor.
Top-weight is the 9yo Sego Success who we know stays this trip well and he usually runs a good race on his seasonal debut, but he does also improve for the run. What is in his favour is that he's dropped to OR136 having not won in 5 races last season, and on that mark he should be competitive. The 6yo Ballycross could be a big improver this season, but he had his chances last season to impress and didn't take them. Based on that form I think he's fairly handicapped on OR133 and will need to find improvement today to win, and he won't be racing on his preferred soft ground. As such, although he has youth on his side, his odds of 3/1 do not represent value in my opinion.
The horse I like the look of in this race is SHANROE SANTOS, who is a lightly raced 8yo - he only came to trainer Lucy Wadham as a 6yo in January 2015 from the point-to-point sphere - as he was off the track from April 2015 to November 2016. He took a few races to get fit and learn his new trade of chasing, but it all came together in the February when he won over C&D. He then won again at Sandown the next month off OR126 before possibly a long season took it's toll when he was beaten some way in a Class 2 handicap chase at Haydock in April. If he can repeat his Sandown form-level today then he will take a lot of beating off OR129 and odds of 4/1 look fair value.
There is a 3m1f hurdle race at Huntingdon at 3:05pm, but there is little to be confident about with many of the runners. The fav Air Squadron basically won a "match" against a non-stayer LTO and his stamina is unproven in my book. The 2nd-fav Dreamsoftheatre returns to hurdling for the first time in 4 years, and supporters are banking on his hurdling ability being better than his recent chase form. There has been a sustained gamble on Generous Chief all morning - he opened at 14/1 - and his current odds are 9/1; he could be the answer as he stays the trip well, and handles right-handed Huntingdon. The value has possibly gone as - if Air Squadron is a true stayer then he could take some beating - but he's worth a punt on the place-only market on the exchanges.