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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 12 October 2019
Chepstow 12th October
I have had some good luck at this meeting in past years, and sometimes finding winners at this time of the year can be as easy as finding the fittest horse in the race.
The 2m7f handicap chase at 3:20pm looks a fair wagering opportunity.
Only 8 runners go to post and the market is headed by Cloth Cap (9/2) and Lil Rockerfella (4/1). Personally, I think Lil Rockerfella needs to improve on his chasing to win off OR145 as he didn't look up to that racing in his novice season last year. The soft ground is likely to be the undoing of Cloth Cap as he's been a "good" ground horse and confined to that by his trainer so far.
Ballyoptic (11/2) will need to be at his very best running off OR152, and Relentless Dreamer (11/2) hasn't been seen since winning at Cheltenham this time last year.
The horse that takes my eye is CAPTAIN CHAOS who ran in this race last year when the ground was "good" but he much prefers soft ground. He was also badly handicapped last year running off OR142 as he had won a couple of novice chases in the autumn of 2017. This year he runs off OR135 as he ran a couple of cracking races in defeat at Newcastle and Wetherby in December over 3-mile. He is 6/1 with Bet365 and Ladbrokes/Coral and that looks good value as I'd have him at 4/1.
Later in the day at 5:05pm the Class 2 handicap chase over 2m3f should go to Charbel who won this race last year. I would name him as my selection, but I also have a soft spot for Activial who is well-up for winning off OR149 over this sort of trip (had no chance when last seen in the Grand National) and was very consistent last year.
Just the one selection £10 won on CAPTAIN CHAOS @ 6/1, but those more adventurous may split their stake and have £5 win on both Charbel and Activial in the 5:05pm race