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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Friday, 29 November 2019

Saturday 30th November & the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase

I expect most readers of this blog will be up and about early on Saturday morning, putting their entries in for the Tote Ten-to-follow. My thoughts and shortlist are on the blog entry below, so no need to go into it again here.
With advance going described as heavy at Newcastle, if it passes an 8am inspection, I'm loathe to spend too much time assessing the form of the racing there.
It's also likely to be heavy ground at Bangor, but at least they are expecting racing to go ahead there - no inspection planned. Only one race there is of interest, and that's the 3-mile Class 3 handicap chase at 1:20pm with 8-runners declared. This looks a weak Class 3 chase and so (unusually) I'm interested in the 10yo ASK THE WEATHERMAN who may well be the oldest horse in the race, but he's proven over the trip and the ground, and he goes well fresh, so should not be too bothered with this being his first run since April.  In December last year, he won a 2m7f hurdle on heavy ground at Exeter, so he does enjoy soft ground and a good trip.
However, most readers of this blog will not be interested in what's happening anywhere else other than at Newbury, and the race they will be focusing on is the Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase run over 3m3f at 3pm. There are 24 runners, which means it will be a much tougher race than last year when only 12 ran. The ground at Newbury is good-to-soft so there will be no excuses and a decent pace is guaranteed.
The "Ladbroke" is a race I've had some good fortune in over the years and essentially you are looking for a young, improving chaser to win this. Last year was (in my opinion) an anomaly as only 12 ran, and the 10yo Sizing Tennessee (who has not raced since) took advantage to run the race of his life off a reasonable OR148 rating. Back in 2nd was Elegant Escape, who has improved since then but so has his rating. Yes he did win the Welsh National last December, but that was off OR151 and in this race he runs off OR160 which is too high. Dingo Dollar was 3rd last year off OR148 and I think the soft ground found him out, and it probably will do again.
Other than Sizing Tennessee last year, only one horse older than 8yo has won this race since 1998, and that was the mighty Denman. As such, I'm going to put a line through anything aged 9yo or older, and that's Beware The Bear, Yala Enki, Yorkhill, Robinsfirth, OK Corral, Two Taffs, West Approach, Joe Farrell, Royal Encore, and Shantou Village.  I can see one or two of them running into a place - possibly West Approach, and OK Corral - but I cannot see one of them winning.
OK Corral is one of the favourites for this, and for the life of me I cannot fathom why as his form on the track just does not justify the support.
Mister Malarkey is a stout stayer, but his form isn't strong enough to win this race off OR149.
Willie Mullins can never be underestimated and his Cabaret Queen won the Munster National LTO but this looks a tough ask to me, and there's no value in the odds.
A rating of OR149 looks tough for De Rasher Counter too, as he couldn't win a Class 3 chase last January off OR139 at Chepstow (was outstayed).
Gordon Elliot sends the Galway Plate winner Borice (in 2nd that day was Black Corton), but this one has plenty of experience and was particularly well handicapped at Galway. running off OR146 will likely find him out.
The horse I've had my eye on all week is ON THE BLIND SIDE.
Nicky Henderson knows how to win this race, and what I like about this horse is that he was given the tough task of taking on Talkischeap at Kempton in January over 3-mile. He was receiving 6lb and Talkischeap is now rated 12lb higher on OR157. so ONTHEBLIND SIDE is possibly a 155+ horse in-waiting, but he's running off OR149.
I was at Ascot when he ran his seasonal debut, and he was given a very easy time of it, only getting going in the final half-mile when he made some rapid progress not losing any ground on the leader in the process. I think this race will be perfect for the horse, and I'm very happy that Nico De Boinville has the ride.
The remainder of the card looks extremely tough, so I'm happy with my only selection being...
Selection
Newbury 3:00pm ONTHEBLINDSIDE, £5 win & £5 eachway @ 11/1 (quarter-odds a place 1,2,3,4,5 with Bet365), total = £15 staked
My quandary is whether to include ONTHEBLINDSIDE in my entry for the Tote Ten-to-Follow.

One racing tipster I have followed in the past and who gives good value for money is
 The Mathematician
and this being "Black Friday" week, he is offering a special deal of
1) The first 10-days of his service available for just £1;
and
2) A discount of £100 an a quarterly membership.
The link to these deals is below:-
The Mathematician
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/offers/blackfriday/default.asp
If you are interested, but do not want a long-term sign-up, he also offers a "Saturday only" service. I will be honest, and advise that I usually only subscribe to this service during the summer months.

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