Since 1st November 2010, I have been recording my selections and advised wagers on the blog.
The full list of selections advised is recorded on other pages and, when assessing my record of the past 12 months, it struck me that there was an element of my wagering that was highly successful and very profitable.
With my 2pt win selections, I have found 7 winners from 12 selections, that's a strike-rate of 58%. From the 24pts staked, I have gained a profit (to advised odds) of 35.50pts, that is a Return on Investment (ROI) of 147.92%.
The full list of 2pt win selections are:-
01Nov10: Free World - lost (2nd) @ 3/1 = 2.00pts lost
15Jan11: BINOCULAR - WON @ 11/4 = 5.50pts profit
18Feb11: FRENCH OPERA - WON @ 7/2 = 7.00pts profit
17Mar11: Poquelin - lost (unplaced) @ 4/1 = 2.00pts lost
30Apr11: Cai Shen - lost (2nd) @ 4/1 = 2.00pts lost
06May11: GLEN'S DIAMOND - WON @ 11/4 = 5.50pts profit
04July11: DRAGONERA - WON @ 4/1 = 8.00pts profit
08July11: CHARLIE COOL - WON @ 11/4 = 5.50pts profit
23Aug11: GEORGE BAKER - WON @ 7/2 = 7.00pts profit
26Aug11: Ogee - lost (unplaced) @ 6/1 = 2.00pts lost
01Nov11: Ghizao - lost (unplaced) @ 11/4 = 2pts lost
07Nov11: SARANDO - WON @ 7/2 = 7.00pts profit
Experience has taught me that the only way to truly win is to have a significant amount on a horse that is under-valued by the markets and to get your money (proper money) down.
Back on 21st September 2011, I wrote a blog entitled "A time to bet like men", and it caused a bit of a stir. I suggested that if you are going to have a “bet”, do it properly and have a day’s wages (or the equivalent) on it. That is, if you are on £40,000 a year and take home (after tax and NIC) £550 a week (or £2,200 a month), then your minimum bet should be £110 – which is a day’s wages. If you’re not confident enough to do that – and confidence is a huge factor in playing the horses – then don’t place the bet.
Having looked back at my stats, I think I've proven my point.
When I have been supremely confident in my selection to advise it as a 2pt win wager then on most occasions it has won, and won at decent odds.
At £50 a point on my 2pt win wagers, followers of this blog would be £1,775 in profit having placed £100 win on each of the 12 selections advised.
