Thursday 18th October

This Thursday in October is a special one for me as way back in 2009 before I started blogging (that was in March 2010), this was the day when I went back to horseracing in a bigger way than I had before.  Back then there were meetings at Carlisle (as there is today) and Ludlow.

Today we have jumps meetings at Carlisle and Uttoxeter. 

At Carlisle there is a fairly competitive looking novice chase run over 2-mile at 2:10pm; a Class 3 event it should have plenty of pointers for the coming season. Of interest is the runner sent by Venetia Williams, only her 2nd runner of the season so far, Du Soleil - this horse has multiple entries and may well run again this weekend. What is interesting is that both times he's run on ground better than heavy, he's won - and the ground is good-to-soft at Carlisle.

Later on the card at 3:45pm there is a Class 3 handicap chase run over an extended 3-mile with 11-runners declared, including yesterday's winner ACDC.  Many years ago I subscribed to the statistical service SMARTSIG (don't ask me what it stands for) and one of the nuggets of information I obtained from that service was the high probability of winners from horses that turned our to run again within 5-days of a previous run, and the better the first run the more likely of a winning performance on the 2nd run. If ACDC runs this afternoon, I will be surprised if he does not start the fav at 4/1 or under, which makes him a value proposition at current odds of 11/2.  With Tintern Theatre usually needing a run to show his best, and Sky Pirate not convincing me he stays this trip well enough, a bigger challenge could come from the 7yo Cooking Fat who does stay this trip and looks to be on an attractive rating of OR127 which is 5lb below his hurdle rating.

At Uttoxeter, there is a very interesting Class 3 novice handicap chase at 3:25pm run over 2m6f & 110 yards, and it looks near impossible to make a selection, however the race should provide a wealth of notes for the notebook. The next race on the card looks a better wagering opportunity, as this 2m7f handicap hurdle should see MIA'S STORM exploiting her OR142 hurdle rating. With Boreham Bill looking to be in the handicappers grip, of the others only Coologue has the potential to make a race of it running from OR120 due to pulling-up on all 4 starts last season which he started on OR140.  We know the horse stays 3-mile (and more) and he likes to front-run, but is he still interested in racing? We won't find that out til the race starts.

No recommended wagers today, but I'm expecting another win from ACDC if he runs at Carlisle, and I really cannot see MIA'S STORM not winning at Uttoxeter, but if you are going to get a decent price on your wager you have to be quick as all the bookies go 5/2 or shorter except Bet365 who are 3/1.

We nearly had a winning start to the season last Saturday when LOVELY JOB jumped the last looking like the potential winner, but faded on the run-in and probably need the run; we will recoup that wager NTO I'm sure of it.

Chepstow - Jump racing is back!

We've had the Arc de Triomphe, and while most of the "glitterati" of the horseracing world will be focused on Newmarket and the running of the Dewhurst Stakes for 2yo’s run over 7-furlongs, the attention for jump racing fans will be on Chepstow and a meeting seen as the “opening night” of the new jump racing season.

Despite there being a major rainstorm over South Wales, Chepstow seems to have escaped the worst of the weather and the course has said the ground is "good, good-to-soft in places" even though they had 21mm of rain yesterday! 

There is a top-class novices chase at 3:35pm and long term followers of the blog will remember I tipped-up a winning double on this day in 2015, including the winner of this race. As it happens, that winner – Cocktails At Dawn trained by Nicky Henderson – was the oldest winner of this race in the past 10 years at 7yo; all the other winners were either 5yo or 6yo. Henderson sends the 8yo Monbeg Legend for this and (like Cocktails At Dawn) he’s already run in an won novice chases this season. He looked particularly impressive LTO when winning over 2m6½f at Stratford in September when making-all to beat some seasoned handicappers, and the worry is that this trip could be too short for him. However, he is the only one of this small field of 5 runners that has jumped a fence on-course, and we know he can jump at speed, so MONBEG LEGEND really is the one they have to beat as he’s likely to set a good pace from the front and he will not be stopping. The one in the race that most will be watching is Master Tommytucker sent by Paul Nicholls, of whom great things are expected - let's see if he can jump a fence. A winner on this card over hurdles last season, Poetic Rhythm could well upset the apple cart but, for me, my money is on Monbeg Legend, and there is plenty of 9/4 available as I write.

 

Later on the card at 5:20pm, there is an attractive Class 2 handicap Chase over just under 3-mile. The top-weight is Coo Star Sivola but he will have to have improved a bit from where he left off last season if he’s to take this race from OR150.

The lightly-raced Step Back absolutely ran away with the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown last April, and this horse really could be a serious contender for top honours if his improvement is continued this season, however it is likely this trip is a touch too short for him.

Another lightly-raced young chaser is Thomas Patrick who made-all to take a Grade 3 handicap chase at Aintree in April, leaving some decent chasers in his wake. He is the 5/1 2nd-fav for this and the 6yo could be very well-in running off a rating of OR148. 

Traffic Fluide has never looked a 3-mile chaser in my opinion, and he may have been flattered when winning LTO over 2m5f.

Rock The Kasbah won this race last season, so we know he goes well fresh and he’s now won twice at this meeting. He’s also weighted to be able to reverse form with Step Back on Bet365 Gold Cup form, and this trip will suit him better than the 3m5f of that race. However, he is very short in the betting being the 9/4 fav, and personally I would not make him the fav for this (I think it should be Thomas Patrick).

Brave Eagle is another young 6yo novice chaser who has won both his chase starts this summer, but this race is throwing him in the deep end.  

Captain Chaos usually needs a run to get to peak fitness, and Cobra De Mai is another who may find this trip stretching his stamina, as is Silverhow.  This race will likely be run at a strong pace and you need one to be "in the van" and staying the trip. 

Bigbadjohn, Our Kaempher and The Young Master have all had plenty of chances however, at 9yo, they are going to find the young guns hard to control.

Lovely Job is an interesting contender, has he only ran 3 times between 1^st-Oct and 30^thApril last season, and he’s improved with every run; he likes to front-run and stays this trip, he could be a dark-horse at 18/1.

As it stands, the ones I’m interested in are Rock The Kasbah, Lovely Job, and Thomas Patrick; and, for me the best value in the race is THOMAS PATRICK @ 5/1.

For a bit of fun in the race, I would not put you off having an eachway wager on LOVELY JOB at 18/1 (with Bet365 and Paddy Power) and - if you are quick - there's 20/1 at William Hill, quarter-odds a place 1,2,3.

Good Luck!

Enable joins the greats

ENABLE joined the greats of horseracing when winning the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe for the 2^nd time on Sunday, but it was a close run thing.  As the 3yo filly See Of Class bore down in the final furlong, reducing the deficit with every stride, the “slow-motion” replay that focused on the leading pair close to the finish showed ENABLE blink just before they crossed the line – it was that close -  or was it?

Last Wednesday, I went through the runners for the race and, in my opinion based on known form and my own personal ratings, there did not seem to be much chance of any other horse in the race winning other than ENABLE, such was her superiority. There was so much between her and the others, which looked (on the whole) a poor opposition based on usual "Arc" fields, that I thought Cloth Of Stars (who chased home Enable last year) had a good chance of filling the same spot again - and on Wednesday the odds about Cloth Of Stars were 50/1.

There were a couple of elements which were not in Enable's favour, for instance (given the time between her previous 2 runs of 11 months) she could have “bounced” and the final result suggests that she did indeed run a long way below her 2017 winning performance. Also, the ground look particularly stamina sapping despite being described as officially “good”. Jockeys and trainers described the ground as good-to-soft, soft, and “loose-on-top”. Certainly, despite being in a clear lead entering the final furlong, ENABLE appeared to only just hold on to that lead as her energy slipped away.

However, in ENABLE’s favour was her undoubted brilliance, based on her winning 2017 performance. 

My personal ratings of the last 10 Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe winners.

Year & winner                            RPR Rating                 My rating

2018 Enable                                        122                              112

2017 Enable                                        129                              127

2016 Found                                         124                              120

2015 Golden Horn                              127                              130

2014 Treve                                          126                              131

2013 Treve                                          131                              132

2012 Solemnia                                    124                              120

2011 Danedream                                128                              129

2010 Workforce                                  130                              127

2009 Sea The Stars                            132                              130     

Sea The Stars is the Racing Post’s (RPR) highest rated recent winner of the race on 132, whereas my rating of that race awarded Sea The Stars only 130 (which puts his winning performance behind both winning efforts of Treve in 2013 & 14, and on a par with Golden Horn in 2015).  The reason for my 130 rating is that I rate the performance, not the “race”, and nor do I make an allowance for potential.

I reckon the RPR awarded to Sea The Stars added a bit extra for "potential"; whereas I rate the performance 130, but Sea The Stars could potentially be 5lb or over 7lb better than that - but we will never know.  Treve, who won the race in 2013 with a superlative performance by 5-lengths and from a poor draw of 15 of the 17 runners, did not really look capable of posting a better performance than that, and never did even when winning for a 2nd time in 2014. 
My rating of Sea The Stars was based on the ability of consistent yardstick Youmzain in 2^nd as that horse was also 2^nd the previous year to Zarkava.  However, why I believe that Sea The Stars to be the best recent winner the manner of his win – he barely seem to be stretched, and watching the race again reminds me of the win of Sea Bird in 1965 – and suggests that he could have easily added 4 or 5 lengths to the margin of victory had he been asked for more effort.
Much has been made of the performance of the 2nd placed SEA OF CLASS as she was dropped-out to the rear of the field (as that seemed the best tactic from a draw of 15 of the 19 runners).  Personally, as I wrote on the Wednesday before the race, I did not think that the filly was on such a serious upward curve as portrayed by the Racing Post Ratings.  Certainly, she is superior to her 3yo rivals having won the Irish Oaks in a canter, but (in my opinion) she has not found further improvement since then, hence my remark that she needed to find another 10lb to trouble Enable.

So how did Sea Of Class get so close? My opinion, which I voiced on the Wednesday before the race, was that the field was substandard. I had Capri running to the same rating as he did in 2017 when 17th of 18 and over 12-lengths behind Enable. I had the 4yo Salouen, who hasn't won a race since his 2yo season (and has been beaten in 12 races as a 3yo & 4yo) yet is very consistent at around the 110 level as running to that rating - 110.  

If connections of ENABLE want to return for another go in 2019, they have nothing to fear from the current crop of 3yo's, and it all depends on whether there is something in the current 2yo crop that can take the race - it will have to be a superlative Derby winner..

Enable & the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe

This weekend brings us the most prestigious flat race in Europe, the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe.  After a break of a couple of years when the race was staged at Chantilly, this year the race returns to Longchamp, although the ground at the revamped course has been criticised by many trainers.

I was lucky enough to be in the paddock at Kempton (being part of the Cribbs Causeway syndicate) when this years' race fav and 2017 winner ENABLE had her preparatory spin on the all-weather surface there.  She looked very well, and did what was expected that day.  What I thought interesting was how professional the connections undertook their business: very serious, no light-hearted behaviour (even though Enable's return to the track was reason enough for celebration). And gentleman that he is, John Gosden took the time to swap a few words with me as we walked from the pre-parade ring into the paddock before the race.

From what I saw, I'd expect Enable to come on a few pounds for that run, but she will not have to find much to repeat her win of 2017.  Remember, she may have been off the track for 11 months prior to that run, but her main rival at Kempton Crystal Ocean was having his 5^th run of a busy season which had seen him win the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot and then be beaten just a neck into 2^nd by Poet's Word in the Group 1 "King George" back at Ascot on the final Saturday in July. I'm not sure that Crystal Ocean repeated that level of form when meeting Enable in September at Kempton, but he wasn't far off and was beaten convincingly enough to warrant no entry for this race and instead he likely goes next for the Champion Stakes back at Ascot on 20^th October.

The worry for Enable is that she is conceding 7lb to the 3yo filly's, however the best of these looks to be SEA OF CLASS and she is (in my opinion) about 10lb inferior to Enable at this stage last season.  I really cannot see her troubling Enable. The best of the 3yo colts is KEW GARDENS, but the St Leger winner didn't look anywhere near good enough when 3^rd in the Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2).  Of the older horses, WALDGEIST is the obvious challenger, but his best form still leaves him with a fair bit to find although this race has been his target for the past few months.  It may pay to take a chance with last year's runner-up CLOTH OF STARS filling the same place again – he's certainly good enough when he wants to be as he showed last year.

Once this weekend is over, we can start to focus entirely on the jumps season.