Not a bad start to the Festival, but it could have been better.
Very disappointing from Cash Back, thought we'd get a run for our money, but no. The form of the Arkle looks a bit "iffy", but then that's a bit of sour grapes as well - these things usually pan-out in the end and I'm sure the winning mare PUT THE KETTLE ON is as good as previous Arkle winners.
We hit the back of the net with THE CONDITIONAL in the Ultima Handicap Chase, who I advised early on Monday morning at 9/1. My main fancy in the race, Mister Malarky, was well there until his stamina gave way. We emerged with a profit of £40 on the race to advised stakes of £24.
The Champion Hurdle went the way of the betting, with the fav EPATANTE winning well. This Irish Graded hurdle form came to the fore, and showed-up just how poor the hurdlers are on this side of the Irish Sea. Take note for the handicaps to come!
What can I say about LORD DU MESNIL? That rogue JJ Codd did it again, didn't he! Coming down the hill I thought the good Lord had it won, but no.
Overall, we have ended the day even.
Onto Wednesday, and another quality racecard.
1:30 Ballymore Novices Hurdle over 2-mile & 5 furlongs
Given the way the Abacadabras ran in the Supreme Hurdle that opens the Festival, then ENVOI ALLEN looks nailed-on. The unbeaten Grade 1 winner will prove difficult to beat, and it may pay to combine the fav with his stablemate Easywork, for a Gordon Elliott one-two.
2:10 RSA Novices Chase over 3-mile
The winner of this race is usually a proper staying chaser, bred to do the job. That Minella Indo has won a Grade 1 hurdle is not a good pointer. Champ is also a Grade 1 hurdle winner, and apt to drop a leg, so he's not on my shortlist either. Allaho has only had 7 races under rules (a bit short on overall experience) but he looks to have bags of natural talent. But the horse I like the look of is COPPERHEAD, who has improved with every run as a chaser, will have no trouble with the ground or the trip, and his latest win at Ascot was easily - in my opinion - the best run by a novice over 3-mile that we've seen this season, anywhere. After that Ascot race, I compared his time with that of Riders Onthe Storm who won the next race on the card over a 3-furlong shorter trip, and Copperhead was quicker over 2m5f than Riders Onthe Storm in his race. A tremendous performance and, if repeated in this race, he could win with a lot in hand.
Suggested Wager:
COPPERHEAD - £20 win @ 9/2 (available generally)
2:50 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle over 2m5f
I'm giving this race a wide berth, it looks wide open.
If you want to have a wager, perhaps the Gordon Elliott trained BLACK TEARS might oblige as this mare ran a cracker at Leopardstown on the 2nd Feb, and then followed up with a good run in a Grade 2 hurdle. Could be under the radar.
3:30 Queen Mother Champion Chase over 2-miles
Much of the interest has gone with the late withdrawal of Altior, but it is still an intriguing duel between DEFI DU SEUIL and Chancun Pour Soi. On my ratings I can barely split them, and my leaning towards Defi Du Seuil is because he has won me so much money over the years.
There is no value in the betting, so no recommended wager.
4:10 Cross Country Chase over 3-mile and 6-furlongs
Not a race that I think should be run at the Festival, and this year is no different. However, this year we have a very good X-Country runner in EASYSLAND who has won over C&D, and his main rival - Tiger Roll - surely is being prepared for a date-with-destiny at Aintree rather than this race.
You might not find an easier 7/2 winner this week.
Suggested Wager:
EASYSLAND - £10 win @ 7/2 (Bet365)
4:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle over 2-miles and 87 yards
Not a race for me, I will have a look overnight, but likely to give this a miss.
5:30 Champion Bumper over 2-miles and 87 yards
This is a race for those "in-the-know". Not much form to go on, and what there is, is tricky to interpret. I've heard a whisper for the David Pipe trained mare, PANIC ATTACK but, honestly, this is a race for the purist.
Tuesday, 10 March 2020
Monday, 9 March 2020
Cheltenham Festival - Day 1 (Tuesday)
This is it, the big one, what we've been waiting for.
First-up a bit of advice - you cannot hope to find the winner of every race, so don't even try. Pick your targets, and if you must have a wager in a race you haven't studied, make it a small one, and maybe just have a fiver in the place-only market on the exchanges or with the Tote.
Remember, over 50% of all the Festival races are won by a last-time-out winner (LTO), finding the winners can be that simple!
I've posted several blogs over the past week with my thoughts on the Festival, and some more detailed analysis, so I'm not going to repeat it, but take a look at the earlier blogs by scrolling down the page.
1:30 Supreme Novices Hurdle (2-miles & 87 yards)
Stick with LTO winners, and the market leaders. You do not get surprises in this race. I have really liked the Mullins runner ASTERION FORLONGE for a few weeks since he won well on 2nd Feb. He could well be the best of these, but do not ignore the Gordon Elliott runner Abacadabras who is likely to improve a lot on his last run. Of the English horses, Fiddlerontheroof is likely to be best. All these 3 horses have already won a G1 hurdle, and graded form is the best line to follow. It may be worth combining the 3 in 6 x £2 straight forecasts.
2:10 Arkle (novice chase) over 2-miles
For me, there are only two horses in the race: Notebook and CASH BACK.
Brewin'upastorm has been off the track too long (117 days) and the mare Fakir D'oudairies meets the colts without a mares allowance for the first time. My preference is for CASH BACK as I think this 8yo could be something special, he will lead from the off and this track does suit a front-runner. Both these horses know how to jump at speed, and fingers crossed we are going to be in for a classic.
I'm on CASH BACK already, and I cannot believe that odds of 7/1 are available, even Notebook is available for 100/30. I'd have this pair 2/1 joint-favs.
Suggested Wager: CASH BACK £10 win @ 7/1 (available generally)
2:50 Ultima Handicap Chase over 3-miles & 1 furlong
I reviewed this race on Sunday (posted the blog early Monday morning) and my selections are:
MISTER MALARKY, THE CONDITIONAL and QUARENTA
Take a look at yesterday's blog for how the stakes are split, £24 wagered.
3:30 The Champion Hurdle over 2-miles & 87 yards
This race looks absolutely wide open. I would not even bother having a punt on any of those under 10/1, and this could well go to a long odds winner. There are a couple that look a bit too long in the market: BALLYANDY @ 18/1 (available generally) and CORNERSTONE LAD @ 28/1 (available generally).
Both these horses held the current 2nd-fav Pentlands Hills when they met at Haydock on 18th Jan. On that form they should both be trading at under 10/1. Ballyandy "loves" Cheltenham: was 3rd in the County Hurdle last year, 4th in the Supreme Hurdle in 2017, and won the Champion Bumper in 2016. Cornerstone Lad has never been out of the 1st-3 since going hurdling, that's 14 races!
Suggested Wager:
BALLYANDY £5 eachway @ 18/1 and
CORNERSTONE LAD £5 eachway @ 28/1
5th odds a place 1,2,3,4
4:10 the Mares' Hurdle over 2-mile 4-furlongs
This should be dominated by the front-3 in the market and as likely winner BENIE DES DIEUX is at odd-on there is no point in having a wager.
4:50 Novices handicap chase over 2-mile 4-furlongs
A very tricky race to fathom, and one that I have not studied.
5:30 National Hunt Chase over 3-mile 6-furlongs
One of my favourite races of the Festival, remember this is for amateur riders. Only the best riders win this: JJ Codd, Sam Waley-Cohen, Derek O'Connor.
This race invariably goes to the highest-rated horse in the race, it is as simple as that. This year that is LORD DU MESNIL on OR153, the race fav is Carefully Selected on OR152 but he's not as experienced as Lord Du Mesnil, and this is a race in which the younger horse can go well.
As soon as I saw Sam Waley-Cohen had been booked for Lord Dun Mesnil, he was included in my multiple wagers.
Suggested Wager: LORD DU MESNIL £10 win @ 6/1 (Bet365, PaddyPower, Betfred)
All the best.
First-up a bit of advice - you cannot hope to find the winner of every race, so don't even try. Pick your targets, and if you must have a wager in a race you haven't studied, make it a small one, and maybe just have a fiver in the place-only market on the exchanges or with the Tote.
Remember, over 50% of all the Festival races are won by a last-time-out winner (LTO), finding the winners can be that simple!
I've posted several blogs over the past week with my thoughts on the Festival, and some more detailed analysis, so I'm not going to repeat it, but take a look at the earlier blogs by scrolling down the page.
1:30 Supreme Novices Hurdle (2-miles & 87 yards)
Stick with LTO winners, and the market leaders. You do not get surprises in this race. I have really liked the Mullins runner ASTERION FORLONGE for a few weeks since he won well on 2nd Feb. He could well be the best of these, but do not ignore the Gordon Elliott runner Abacadabras who is likely to improve a lot on his last run. Of the English horses, Fiddlerontheroof is likely to be best. All these 3 horses have already won a G1 hurdle, and graded form is the best line to follow. It may be worth combining the 3 in 6 x £2 straight forecasts.
2:10 Arkle (novice chase) over 2-miles
For me, there are only two horses in the race: Notebook and CASH BACK.
Brewin'upastorm has been off the track too long (117 days) and the mare Fakir D'oudairies meets the colts without a mares allowance for the first time. My preference is for CASH BACK as I think this 8yo could be something special, he will lead from the off and this track does suit a front-runner. Both these horses know how to jump at speed, and fingers crossed we are going to be in for a classic.
I'm on CASH BACK already, and I cannot believe that odds of 7/1 are available, even Notebook is available for 100/30. I'd have this pair 2/1 joint-favs.
Suggested Wager: CASH BACK £10 win @ 7/1 (available generally)
2:50 Ultima Handicap Chase over 3-miles & 1 furlong
I reviewed this race on Sunday (posted the blog early Monday morning) and my selections are:
MISTER MALARKY, THE CONDITIONAL and QUARENTA
Take a look at yesterday's blog for how the stakes are split, £24 wagered.
3:30 The Champion Hurdle over 2-miles & 87 yards
This race looks absolutely wide open. I would not even bother having a punt on any of those under 10/1, and this could well go to a long odds winner. There are a couple that look a bit too long in the market: BALLYANDY @ 18/1 (available generally) and CORNERSTONE LAD @ 28/1 (available generally).
Both these horses held the current 2nd-fav Pentlands Hills when they met at Haydock on 18th Jan. On that form they should both be trading at under 10/1. Ballyandy "loves" Cheltenham: was 3rd in the County Hurdle last year, 4th in the Supreme Hurdle in 2017, and won the Champion Bumper in 2016. Cornerstone Lad has never been out of the 1st-3 since going hurdling, that's 14 races!
Suggested Wager:
BALLYANDY £5 eachway @ 18/1 and
CORNERSTONE LAD £5 eachway @ 28/1
5th odds a place 1,2,3,4
4:10 the Mares' Hurdle over 2-mile 4-furlongs
This should be dominated by the front-3 in the market and as likely winner BENIE DES DIEUX is at odd-on there is no point in having a wager.
4:50 Novices handicap chase over 2-mile 4-furlongs
A very tricky race to fathom, and one that I have not studied.
5:30 National Hunt Chase over 3-mile 6-furlongs
One of my favourite races of the Festival, remember this is for amateur riders. Only the best riders win this: JJ Codd, Sam Waley-Cohen, Derek O'Connor.
This race invariably goes to the highest-rated horse in the race, it is as simple as that. This year that is LORD DU MESNIL on OR153, the race fav is Carefully Selected on OR152 but he's not as experienced as Lord Du Mesnil, and this is a race in which the younger horse can go well.
As soon as I saw Sam Waley-Cohen had been booked for Lord Dun Mesnil, he was included in my multiple wagers.
Suggested Wager: LORD DU MESNIL £10 win @ 6/1 (Bet365, PaddyPower, Betfred)
All the best.
Cheltenham Tuesday - the Ultima Handicap Chase
Last year, I managed to find the winner of this race - Beware The Bear - on Sunday, when his odds were 20/1. This morning, the 48hrs declarations came out for the opening day of the Festival, and with this information in mind, I am taking an in-depth look at the Ultima Handicap Chase over 3m1f to be run on Tuesday.
One of the best handicap chases of the season, we will have 24 runners going to post - so we have to sort out the possibles from the impossibles. I will look at this the same as last year.
Since 2001, of the 18 winners, 9 have been "last-time-out" (LTO) winners.
The "mean" number of days since that previous race for winners of this handicap is 30 days - so it is very important that your selection has had a recent run, and a good one at that. Beware The Bear ran 70-days before winning this, and only Wichita Lineman (94 days in 2009) and Joe's Edge (114 days in 2007) won off a longer break.
Horses aged 9yo or older can win this race, but it is more likely the winner will be aged 7yo & 8yo.
I avoid horses which last ran before Christmas Day this season, as it is very difficult to win top competitive races at the Festival off such a long break - not impossible, but very difficult; which rules out Vinndication (129 days); Brave Eagle (101 days); Atlanta Ablaze (94 days); Soupy Soups (122 days).
Horses with more than 15 chase runs are probably too exposed to win a handicap as competitive as this, so that rules out Cepage (17 runs); Vintage Clouds (23 runs); Cogry (33 runs); Townsend (17 runs); and Cobra De Mai (24 runs).
Those horse's that remain, let's look at in some detail:-
Mister Malarkey - ticks a lot of boxes, LTO winner, ran 17-days ago, won a 3-miles, wears cheekpieces (7 of the last 8 winners have worn some form of headgear), prominent runner. On the shortlist.
Kildisart - not won since beating Mister Malarkey at Aintree and looks out-of-form.
Discorama - hasn't won a 3-mile chase and looks one paced. Likely to fill the places.
Who Dares Wins - hasn't raced beyond 2m4f , let alone won, an unlikely winner.
Activial - 6th last year off OR151, so off OR145 will be thereabouts if in the same form - but he's not.
Mulcahys Hill - has won over 3-mile, but it wasn't a strong race, and he was easily beaten LTO.
Burbank - another who ticks the boxes, his win at Newbury in December over 2m6f was decent, but he struggled at Doncaster next time out. Wears blinkers, potential stamina doubt.
Big River - 4th in this last year off OR140, so interesting off OR141 especially having won LTO. But he was mainly passing beaten horses last year, and at 10yo he's not a likely winner.
The Conditional - 5th in the 2-mile Arkle last year (well beaten) he's looked a better horse over 3-miles, but his improvement has stagnated. Wears 1st-time pieces, and that may result in a repeat of Ladbroke Trophy run. On the shortlist.
Elwood - I was disappointed that Gordon Elliott did not keep Shattered Love in this handicap, so that he's only this 6yo running is interesting, except that the form of the horse is ordinary and he makes a lot of mistakes.
Quarenta - if he'd won the Class 2 handicap at Kempton on the 27th Dec (btn a head) he'd be about 3lb heavier. He's proven at the trip, on the ground and is on the upgrade, and Jonjo O'Neill knows how to prepare one. On the shortlist
No Comment - fell LTO (not a good sign), and could not win the Kim Muir off OR138 last year, so I'm not sure he's well handicapped on OR137, but could be placed.
Vivas - not won beyond 2m5f, and attempts at 3-mile have been poor.
Ice Cool Champs - won at Wetherby in Jan off a break of 323 days, but only beat 4 others, and flopped NTO in Feb, so maybe he's had his day this season.
The shortlist is:
MISTER MALARKEY - For me, this horse should be the fav, and that he's 12/1 is tremendous value as he was seriously considered a potential RSA horse last season.
THE CONDITIONAL - probably most likely to be placed than win, but 9/1 is fair.
QUARENTA - very interesting this one, as trainer's son rides Mister Malarkey.
I'm aware that my simplistic trend-sorter has dismissed the favourite Vinndication, but I really cannot have a horse that is both top-weight and returning from a break of 129 days.
My suggested wager is
MISTER MALARKEY
£4 eachway & £2 win @ 12/1 (available generally, 5th odds a place 1,2,3,4,5)
THE CONDITIONAL
£5 eachway @ 9/1 (William Hill, 5th odds a place 1,2,3,4,5)
QUARENTA
£2 eachway @ 25/1 (available generally, 5th odds a place 1,2,3,4,5)
PLUS: 6 x £1 straight-forecasts combining the above 3 to be 1st and 2nd
A small stake, but potentially high return (if I'm right)
At this time, I also like to fall-back on a couple of renowned shrewdies who take an alternative view to my own (which is purely form-based):
they are Marten Julian - who has his contacts up & down the country and here's the whispers that many of us learn AFTER the race has been won, and
The Mathematician - who has long-delved into the statistics of horseracing, but sorts the wheat from the chaff, and finds nuggets of pure gold, he is currently offering a Cheltenham Festival Deal which includes Aintree and is well-worth taking advantage of.
Good luck.
One of the best handicap chases of the season, we will have 24 runners going to post - so we have to sort out the possibles from the impossibles. I will look at this the same as last year.
Since 2001, of the 18 winners, 9 have been "last-time-out" (LTO) winners.
The "mean" number of days since that previous race for winners of this handicap is 30 days - so it is very important that your selection has had a recent run, and a good one at that. Beware The Bear ran 70-days before winning this, and only Wichita Lineman (94 days in 2009) and Joe's Edge (114 days in 2007) won off a longer break.
Horses aged 9yo or older can win this race, but it is more likely the winner will be aged 7yo & 8yo.
I avoid horses which last ran before Christmas Day this season, as it is very difficult to win top competitive races at the Festival off such a long break - not impossible, but very difficult; which rules out Vinndication (129 days); Brave Eagle (101 days); Atlanta Ablaze (94 days); Soupy Soups (122 days).
Horses with more than 15 chase runs are probably too exposed to win a handicap as competitive as this, so that rules out Cepage (17 runs); Vintage Clouds (23 runs); Cogry (33 runs); Townsend (17 runs); and Cobra De Mai (24 runs).
Those horse's that remain, let's look at in some detail:-
Mister Malarkey - ticks a lot of boxes, LTO winner, ran 17-days ago, won a 3-miles, wears cheekpieces (7 of the last 8 winners have worn some form of headgear), prominent runner. On the shortlist.
Kildisart - not won since beating Mister Malarkey at Aintree and looks out-of-form.
Discorama - hasn't won a 3-mile chase and looks one paced. Likely to fill the places.
Who Dares Wins - hasn't raced beyond 2m4f , let alone won, an unlikely winner.
Activial - 6th last year off OR151, so off OR145 will be thereabouts if in the same form - but he's not.
Mulcahys Hill - has won over 3-mile, but it wasn't a strong race, and he was easily beaten LTO.
Burbank - another who ticks the boxes, his win at Newbury in December over 2m6f was decent, but he struggled at Doncaster next time out. Wears blinkers, potential stamina doubt.
Big River - 4th in this last year off OR140, so interesting off OR141 especially having won LTO. But he was mainly passing beaten horses last year, and at 10yo he's not a likely winner.
The Conditional - 5th in the 2-mile Arkle last year (well beaten) he's looked a better horse over 3-miles, but his improvement has stagnated. Wears 1st-time pieces, and that may result in a repeat of Ladbroke Trophy run. On the shortlist.
Elwood - I was disappointed that Gordon Elliott did not keep Shattered Love in this handicap, so that he's only this 6yo running is interesting, except that the form of the horse is ordinary and he makes a lot of mistakes.
Quarenta - if he'd won the Class 2 handicap at Kempton on the 27th Dec (btn a head) he'd be about 3lb heavier. He's proven at the trip, on the ground and is on the upgrade, and Jonjo O'Neill knows how to prepare one. On the shortlist
No Comment - fell LTO (not a good sign), and could not win the Kim Muir off OR138 last year, so I'm not sure he's well handicapped on OR137, but could be placed.
Vivas - not won beyond 2m5f, and attempts at 3-mile have been poor.
Ice Cool Champs - won at Wetherby in Jan off a break of 323 days, but only beat 4 others, and flopped NTO in Feb, so maybe he's had his day this season.
The shortlist is:
MISTER MALARKEY - For me, this horse should be the fav, and that he's 12/1 is tremendous value as he was seriously considered a potential RSA horse last season.
THE CONDITIONAL - probably most likely to be placed than win, but 9/1 is fair.
QUARENTA - very interesting this one, as trainer's son rides Mister Malarkey.
I'm aware that my simplistic trend-sorter has dismissed the favourite Vinndication, but I really cannot have a horse that is both top-weight and returning from a break of 129 days.
My suggested wager is
MISTER MALARKEY
£4 eachway & £2 win @ 12/1 (available generally, 5th odds a place 1,2,3,4,5)
THE CONDITIONAL
£5 eachway @ 9/1 (William Hill, 5th odds a place 1,2,3,4,5)
QUARENTA
£2 eachway @ 25/1 (available generally, 5th odds a place 1,2,3,4,5)
PLUS: 6 x £1 straight-forecasts combining the above 3 to be 1st and 2nd
A small stake, but potentially high return (if I'm right)
At this time, I also like to fall-back on a couple of renowned shrewdies who take an alternative view to my own (which is purely form-based):
they are Marten Julian - who has his contacts up & down the country and here's the whispers that many of us learn AFTER the race has been won, and
The Mathematician - who has long-delved into the statistics of horseracing, but sorts the wheat from the chaff, and finds nuggets of pure gold, he is currently offering a Cheltenham Festival Deal which includes Aintree and is well-worth taking advantage of.
Good luck.
Friday, 6 March 2020
Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Early thoughts
Early thoughts? The Festival starts next Tuesday.
But is has been a strange jumps season, I feel like very little has happened and it has sneaked-up on us. I keep hearing the phrase "I've not had an antepost wager this year" - so it's not just me then!
I've been looking at the championship races, as there is very little point in looking at the handicaps unless you have some very good knowledge, and here are a few pointers.
Day 1 - Tuesday
Supreme Novice Hurdle - this isn't a betting race for me, but the form on the ground looks pretty sparce, which could indicate a long-odds winner, or it could indicate that the best of the novices is a lot better than the others. For me, and I said this on twitter a few weeks ago, ASTERION FORLONGE has the best form in the book. Throw-in he's trained by Mullins and we could be looking at a decent start to the Festival. But do not go overboard!
Day 1 - Tuesday
Arkle - on the formbook this is between Notebook and CASH BACK. There is a possibility that Brewin'upastorm could figure, but he's not raced since November and that is not a good sign. For me, CASH BACK at 13/2 (today) could be one of the bets of the Festival. He is very lightly raced for an 8yo, and looked a decent hurdler in his short spell over hurdles.
Day 1 - Tuesday
Ultima Handicap - several catch my eye: Mister Malarkey ticks a lot of boxes; ROCK THE KASBAH does too; and if he gets in The Conditional.
Day 1 - Tuesday
NH Chase - this race invariably goes to the best form-horse in the race, the top-rated. At the moment that is LORD DU MESNIL on OR153, add that he's ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen in this amateur riders race, and so long as the sun doesn't shine too much and we have soft ground on the opening day, this one looks like being hard to catch, odds of 8/1 look long.
Day 2 - Wednesday
RSA Chase - this revolves around Champ, if he jumps well, he wins. But will he jump well? Odds of 3/1 look fair to me on that score, but you may want a saver on the "next-best", COPPERHEAD who looked a very good novice chaser when winning over 3-mile at Ascot LTO. Odds of 4/1 could look decent on the day, but he's sure to be in the 1st-3 for eachway multiples.
Day 2 - Wednesday
QMCC - You are either a fan of Altior, or you aren't. He will need to be at his best to win this, and will he be at 10yo? For me it is between DEFI DU SEUIL and Chancun Pour Soi, and a reverse forecast on that pair may be a money-spinner.
Day 2 - Wednesday
X-Country Chase - not a race I usually wager in, but the prime target for Tiger Roll is a 3rd Grand National, and that means EASYLAND should romp home in this.
Day 3 - Thursday
Ryanair - a race that could cut-up a lot, but one I think has improved in leaps and bounds this season is RIDERS ONTHE STORM, he could be seriously good, and if Cepage runs well on the opening day in the Ultima Handicap, you will not find 7/1 on the day.
Day 4 - Friday
Gold Cup - I've looked at this race a lot. Nothing has come close to the form of AL BOUM PHOTO when he won this last year, and he won it in a canter. It will have to be one of last years' novice chasers that beats him (if one can) and that's Santini, Lostintranslation, or Delta Work. Personally, I think DELTA WORK would have won the RSA Chase last year had he pushed-on after the 3rd-last.
So it is between those two.
At this time, I also like to fall-back on a couple of renowned shrewdies who take an alternative view to my own (which is purely form-based):
they are Marten Julian - who has his contacts up & down the country and here's the whispers that many of us learn AFTER the race has been won, and
The Mathematician - who has long-delved into the statistics of horseracing, but sorts the wheat from the chaff, and finds nuggets of pure gold, he is currently offering a Cheltenham Festival Deal which includes Aintree and is well-worth taking advantage of.
Good luck, more on the handicaps later.
But is has been a strange jumps season, I feel like very little has happened and it has sneaked-up on us. I keep hearing the phrase "I've not had an antepost wager this year" - so it's not just me then!
I've been looking at the championship races, as there is very little point in looking at the handicaps unless you have some very good knowledge, and here are a few pointers.
Day 1 - Tuesday
Supreme Novice Hurdle - this isn't a betting race for me, but the form on the ground looks pretty sparce, which could indicate a long-odds winner, or it could indicate that the best of the novices is a lot better than the others. For me, and I said this on twitter a few weeks ago, ASTERION FORLONGE has the best form in the book. Throw-in he's trained by Mullins and we could be looking at a decent start to the Festival. But do not go overboard!
Day 1 - Tuesday
Arkle - on the formbook this is between Notebook and CASH BACK. There is a possibility that Brewin'upastorm could figure, but he's not raced since November and that is not a good sign. For me, CASH BACK at 13/2 (today) could be one of the bets of the Festival. He is very lightly raced for an 8yo, and looked a decent hurdler in his short spell over hurdles.
Day 1 - Tuesday
Ultima Handicap - several catch my eye: Mister Malarkey ticks a lot of boxes; ROCK THE KASBAH does too; and if he gets in The Conditional.
Day 1 - Tuesday
NH Chase - this race invariably goes to the best form-horse in the race, the top-rated. At the moment that is LORD DU MESNIL on OR153, add that he's ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen in this amateur riders race, and so long as the sun doesn't shine too much and we have soft ground on the opening day, this one looks like being hard to catch, odds of 8/1 look long.
Day 2 - Wednesday
RSA Chase - this revolves around Champ, if he jumps well, he wins. But will he jump well? Odds of 3/1 look fair to me on that score, but you may want a saver on the "next-best", COPPERHEAD who looked a very good novice chaser when winning over 3-mile at Ascot LTO. Odds of 4/1 could look decent on the day, but he's sure to be in the 1st-3 for eachway multiples.
Day 2 - Wednesday
QMCC - You are either a fan of Altior, or you aren't. He will need to be at his best to win this, and will he be at 10yo? For me it is between DEFI DU SEUIL and Chancun Pour Soi, and a reverse forecast on that pair may be a money-spinner.
Day 2 - Wednesday
X-Country Chase - not a race I usually wager in, but the prime target for Tiger Roll is a 3rd Grand National, and that means EASYLAND should romp home in this.
Day 3 - Thursday
Ryanair - a race that could cut-up a lot, but one I think has improved in leaps and bounds this season is RIDERS ONTHE STORM, he could be seriously good, and if Cepage runs well on the opening day in the Ultima Handicap, you will not find 7/1 on the day.
Day 4 - Friday
Gold Cup - I've looked at this race a lot. Nothing has come close to the form of AL BOUM PHOTO when he won this last year, and he won it in a canter. It will have to be one of last years' novice chasers that beats him (if one can) and that's Santini, Lostintranslation, or Delta Work. Personally, I think DELTA WORK would have won the RSA Chase last year had he pushed-on after the 3rd-last.
So it is between those two.
At this time, I also like to fall-back on a couple of renowned shrewdies who take an alternative view to my own (which is purely form-based):
they are Marten Julian - who has his contacts up & down the country and here's the whispers that many of us learn AFTER the race has been won, and
The Mathematician - who has long-delved into the statistics of horseracing, but sorts the wheat from the chaff, and finds nuggets of pure gold, he is currently offering a Cheltenham Festival Deal which includes Aintree and is well-worth taking advantage of.
Good luck, more on the handicaps later.
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