Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Day 3 (14th March)

It's the 3rd day of the Festival, and it's fairly obvious now that the quality of horse trained in the UK - Constitution Hill excluded - is at the poorest level in my lifetime. Maybe I'm being over-dramatic, but I don't know where it goes from here, but if horseracing isn't competitive - Willie Mullins saddled the 1st-5 in the Grade 1 Gallagher Novices Hurdle, from 7 starters - then the majority of supporters will lose interest. 

I had no luck on the day, with both selections not finishing in the places. And the remainder of the card didn't provide betting opportunities except for those fortunate with a lucky pin.

Let's try our hand on Day-3 (Thursday)

1:30pm Turners Novices' Chase (2m4f)

We have 11 runners going to post, which should provide some interest. The fav is Facile Vega, and I expect Mullins will be hoping the extra distance (all chase races have been over 2m1f) will bring about some improvement. Given how testing the ground is, Grey Dawning having won over 3-mile LTO should have sufficient stamina to be involved at the finish.  When they met as hurdlers last season, Grey Dawning got the better of Ginny's Destiny, and if the ground wasn't as soft as it is, I might fancy Ginny's Destiny - but on this ground a horse needs stamina. If Iroko - off the track since early November - wins it will be a helluva training performance, but I can't see that happening. Nothing else looks good enough. For me it's Grey Dawning, but the odds are not attractive enough to warrant advising a wager. However, do not ignore the chance of Letsbeclearaboutit, sent by Gavin Cromwell, ignore LTO as he didn't stay 3-mile on heavy ground but this trip will suit him well - and he wasn't far behind Found A Fifty (2nd in the Arkle this week) on 03Dec - he's worth a small ew at 33/1. 

2:10pm Pertemps Hurdle Final H'cap (3 mile)

One of my favourite races of the season. This is not an easy race to fathom, but you do need a horse that is a proven stayer at the trip, and there are not many of those.  And unless you find a bold front-runner (like Buena Vista) and the benefit of good ground, it's best to have a hold-up horse. 

I've narrowed it down to a couple, Emitom who runs off OR137 and won a decent handicap at Newbury last month, and Gabby's Cross who has been running well recently.  What I like about Emitom is he was 4th in the Stayers' Hurdle in 2020 when rated OR153, and Alan King has revitalised the horse since he started training him.  Gabby's Cross is an OR140 chaser running off OR127.  

Both are worth an eachway wager:

Gabbys Cross:  81 available generally - 6-places, 5th odds

Emitom: 28/1 with Paddy Power - 6-places, 5th odds

2:50pm Ryanair Chase (2m5f)

This race is looking one of the most open Grade 1's of the entire Festival. On the one hand, Envoi Allen won a stronger race last year, but hasn't done much in the past 12 months: should he be the fav? Hitman was 3rd last year and hasn't improved in the last 12 months. Banbridge, despite winning well LTO, does not have suitable ground, and may well be withdrawn. Stage Star won the Turners last year, but I'm not sure he's up to winning this race as you have to take his well-being (he pulled-up LTO when the fav) for granted. Capodanno and Conflated don't look good enough to win over this trip.  The horse that jumps out for me is Protektorat: he has been consistently good this season, running some of his best races in defeat as he's been giving away a lot of weight at times. He's a bold front-runner and this could be his day in the sun - there's plenty of 9/1 and 4-places at 5th odds a place.

3:30pm Stayers' Hurdle (3 miles)

Another race worth having a wager in. Teahupoo had his ground last season and couldn't win.  Is he a better, stronger horse this season? Noble Yeats does not lack stamina, but let's be honest, he was getting 6lb off Paisley Park and only just beat him. If I thought Sir Gerhard would stay this 3-mile trip on soft ground, he would be the selection, but he's never shown the required stamina before. I haven't thought Crambo as good enough to win this since his win at Ascot LTO, and nothing has changed that opinion. If Crambo isn't good enough, neither is Paisley Park; and lightning does not strike twice, so I'm putting a line through Sire Du Berlais as a 12yo. There's one horse who is a proven stayer, proven on the ground,  and ran well in this last season of a short preparation - Flooring Porter. He's had no problems this season with fitness, and he is the dark horse in this race, odds of 14/1 Paddypower look generous. I'm on at 25/1 as I never thought he'd make the grade as a chaser, and I've gone in again at 

I'm going to overlook the Plate at 4:10pm and the Mares' Hurdle at 4:50pm (lack of time), and go to the final race of the day:

5:30pm Kim Muir h'cap chase (3m2f)

Amateur riders are usually best avoided, but you can't do that in this race. The best amateurs ride the best horses, so you have to respect Derek O'Connor on Inothewayyurthinkin the 5/2 fav. The 8yo Amirite has McParlan in the saddle, and this decent stayer could go well. However, the one I like the look of is Bowtogreatness, ridden by Jack Andrews who knows his way around Cheltenham. Still a maiden chaser, he's mainly race over 2m4f but he's twice run at 3-mile coming 2nd at Aintree on 15Apr and 3rd LTO at Kempton which was probably his best effort to date - so he's in form.  He looks well handicapped on OR133.  

Bowtogreatness - £2.50 ew @ 16/1 Bet365 , 6-places 5th odds.

Good luck all.

Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Day 2 (Wed 13th March)

Yesterday wasn't the best of days - we came close, but (in horseracing) 2nd isn't good enough.

We started the day fairly well, it was right to oppose the fav Tullyhill in the Supreme Hurdle, but we went for the wrong opposition. I think the testing ground did for Firefox, as he was cruising before 2-out but found nothing from there, staying-on to be 3rd (£5 ew advised @ 13/2, so nothing lost).  The soft/heavy ground requires stamina, and we should see a different Firefox on "good" ground.  Onto the "Arkle" and, as it happened, Gaelic Warrior is the best two-mile chaser we've seen in a few years, he ripped the "Arkle" field apart; my selection Found A Fifty was a gallant 2nd (£5 ew advised @ 15/2, again no money lost). After 2 races we had 2 selections placed at eachway, and we were still in the game. 

I had high hopes for the Ultima Handicap Chase, but my main selection Stumptown didn't appreciate the ground, and made errors. However, I did suggest placing eachway wagers on Twig and Monbeg Genius; and Twig ran a cracker to be 2nd at 28/1. For a moment  as the leaders approached 2-out, I thought he may go on to win, but no. Again, it was stamina that won out on the testing ground. 

That was the end of my luck, as I didn't have any meaningful wagers in the next 3 hurdle races, and in the NH Chase that closed the day, my selection Salvatore Ziggy ran a stinker.   

The 2nd day of the Festival starts with:

1:30pm Gallagher Novices' Hurdle (2m5f)

After Slade Steel won the Supreme Hurdle yesterday, you cannot look anywhere else but at Ballyburn as he easily beat Slade Steel last month. What will come 2nd? Possibly the 6yo Ile Atlantique.

2:10pm Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (3-mile)

Just 6 runners go to post, and yet another odds-on Mullins horse Fact To File is the fav. At the odds, I don't think he's value and I'm going to oppose with Stay Away Fay who we know will stay the trip and handle the track and ground; and I think this one has the stronger form going into this race.  It's particularly pleasing that trainer Paul Nicholls has not entered the horse in any other race; this has always been the target.  I thought this race may cut-up, but not this much, and now I'm wishing I'd had more on Giovinco ew last week at 33/1 (see blog dated 07Mar) as antepost offered 3-places. The 7/2 available for Stay Away Fay looks decent value, and I'm taking that: £10 win.

2:35pm Coral Cup H'cp Hurdle (2m5f)

This will be won by a horse with a lot of stamina, and a touch of class. It's a longshot but I like Benson; a 9yo who will handle the ground, can race up with the pace, or from off the pace, and was 11/1 to win this race last year (pulled-up, never travelling), and is 100/1 with Bet365 (6-places ew, 5th odds), and there's a lot of 66/1 about. Good luck 

3:30pm Champion Chase (2 mile)

There's only one winner of this race, and that's El Fabiolo; the only way he won't win is if he doesn't finish. It could be anything that comes in 2nd, apart from Boothill who only races right-handed. 

4:10pm Cross Country Chase (3m5f)

It's no secret that I'm no fan of this race; I'm not against the type of race, I just don't think it has a place at the Cheltenham Festival. Since becoming level weights, the winner has comes from the top of the betting, so most judges will say there's no point in considering anything at odds longer that 8/1. However, I think Foxy Jacks who won over C&D last November looks poised to run well. Of the market leaders; Coko Beach has been in top form recently.  This is not a betting race for me.

4:50pm Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase H'cp (2-mile)

This is a very competitive race, but the horse that I wanted to run in the race last year IS running in the race this year, and that Saint Roi. He ran 3rd in the Arkle instead, and then ran 2nd at Aintree when just beaten by Banbridge (now the fav for the Ryanair Chase tomorrow).  I think he's been laid-out for this race, and odds of 7/1 (generally available) look fair considering that he's a Festival winner (County Hurdle in 2020). 

£10 win on Saint Roi @ 7/1. 

5:30 Champion Bumper (2-miles) Flat race

To be honest, I haven't a clue in this race, but if push came to shove I think Jalon D'oudaries looks to have a decent chance and odds of 5/1 look fair.

Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Day 1 (Tuesday 12th March)

Here we go! 

The most eagerly anticipated horserace meeting in the entire calendar. We will surely have competitive racing, highs and lows, and (fingers crossed) a few winners along the way. I've looked at a lot of the races already in the past week, so most of the form-study has been done. Let's get down to it and finalise the selections for the day ahead.

1:30pm - Supreme Novices Hurdle

Just 12 runners go to post, with Willie Mullins supplying half the field - and possibly his best novice hurdler runs tomorrow. Tullyhill made an immense step forward LTO, and Mullins must consider him good enough to win, but I feel Firefox who has been Gordon Elliott's chosen runner for some time to finish on top.  The trends will say a horse that won LTO is the way to go, but I'm expecting the trends to be distorted by the domination of Mullins; and that Tullyhill has had little competition in he races makes his true ability tricky to assess. Also, if Mullins thought Tullyhill was most likely to win, he wouldn't run Mystical Power.  

For me, it's Firefox to win, and I'm already on at 10/1; but the 13/2 looks attractive (Betfred pay 4-places) as an eachway wager: £5 ew @ 13/2 (4-place, 5th odds)

2:10pm - Arkle Novices' Chase

Only 10 runners go to post, with Willie Mullins supplying three (3). This all hangs on Gaelic Warrior who could possibly turn-out to be the best two-mile chaser we've seen in a few years, or (like Chancun Pour Soi) he may save his best for Ireland, and flop at Cheltenham.  

I'm on two in the race: Found A Fifty and Il Etait Temps; they fought out the Irish Arkle last month, and they look to have the best recent form going into this race. Mullins also has Hunters Yarn, but that horse wasn't good enough as a hurdler to suggest he has the speed for this race. There are another two that may be involved: Quilixios who won the Triumph Hurdle in 2021; and My Mate Mozzie who I thought would go for a handicap chase as he's clearly better than his OR150 rating.  

I'm already on both Found A Fifty and Il Etait Temps at 6/1, which I took after they ran LTO. Right now, this race looks too competitive, as I didn't expect Mullins to run Gaelic Warrior - so if you haven't already had a wager already, then I can't suggest one that looks "value" other than a £5 eachway wager on Found A Fifty at 15/2 with Paddy Power (3-places 5th odds a place)

2:50pm - Ultima Handicap Chase

With 23 runners going to post this should be a cracking race - it's one of my favourites in the winter calendar. Unusually, the Irish trainers are out in force this year, and I'm expecting one of them to win the race. The market leaders Meetingofthewaters, The Goffer, and Chianti Classico each have "issues" (see horse-by-horse assesment in yesterday's blog) and I'm expecting the experience of Stumptown, a winner over C&D,  to prove decisive. I've also suggested eachway wagers on Twig, and Monbeg Genius, as most bookies are paying 6-places eachway. 

For me, it's £5 ew Stumptown at 11/1 (William Hill) and £5 win if you are not already on.

3:30pm - Champion Hurdle

This looks a near certainty for State Man, and he is long odds-on - so long as he finished the race he will win.  If you are betting without the fav, then Iberico Lord at 3/1 is the way to go.

4:10pm - Mares' Hurdle (2m4f)

We have another odds-on Mullins-trained favourite in Lossiemouth, and she should win - however, she's never won over this sort of trip, and there's no guarantee that she will stay 2m4f especially with the notorious Cheltenham uphill finish to contend with. I've not had a wager in this race, but the 14/1 available about Love Envoi looks interesting as she is proven at the trip.

4:50pm - Juvenile H'Cap

Some races you just have to overlook, and this is one; good luck if having a wager.

5:30pm - NH Chase

It's disappoiting that there are just 7 runners in what was a great race. 

I'm expecting Gordon Elliott to cap a remarkable day with a win from Salvatore Ziggy @ 6/1 (Bet365) who he has kept under wraps all season. I was going to suggest a saver on Apple Away but the value has gone.

Good luck and back tomorrow.

Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Ultima Handicap Chase (12Mar)

The weights are out, and the declarations are confirmed for the first of the major handicaps of the Festival: the Ultima Handicap Chase over 3m1f. Only 23 entries, one under the maximum, and there are a few surprise non-declarations: Annual Invictus and Giovinco.

If you have been reading the blog over the past week, you may have noticed that I've not been referring to any "trends" or stats. There's a couple of reasons; a) I believe the domination of the Festival by 3 or 4 trainers (and in particular, Mullins) has put a wrecking ball through the trends; and b) for me, trends only apply to races which are well supported and competitive, in other words, the handicaps.

I'm going to look at every runner in the Ultima Handicap, as you just cannot ignore any of them: we've had a couple of repeat winners (Corach Rambler and Un Temps Pour Tout), a veteran winner (Vintage Clouds); and a very young novice winner (Coo Star Sivola) in recent years. Right, let's go!

Eldorado Allen: 10yo, and you could describe him as a class horse, as he was in the Gold Cup last year (came 7th); he's not going to be far away based on his run in the old "Hennessey" on 02Dec; but he does find winning tricky (4 from 21). 
Run Wild Fred: 10yo, hasn't won since Nov21, and the handicapper hasn't given him much chance with OR149, as he'd need a career-best to win off that.
Highland Hunter: not the obvious type being an 11yo, and he's had 3 races since Xmas.
Stumptown: This 7yo ran 2nd in the "Kim Muir" (3m2f) last season, and won here on New Years Day; he looks the type to go close and Gavin Cromwell is no mug. 
Monbeg Genius: Nobody wants the owner to win this race, but this 8yo is running and his 3rd in the old "Hennessey" (beat Eldorado Allen) plus running 3rd in this races last year, puts him in the picture. Rated OR147, that's fair and odds of 12/1 put him on the shortlist.
The Goffer: the subject of a significant gamble so far, but I'm not convinced this 7yo is the one. Ran 3rd last season in this race off OR149, so running off OR144 suggests he could be well-in. However, he comes in off a 142 day break (last run on 22Oct) and that could be too much.
Meetingofthewaters: Bought recently by JP McManus, sure he won a decent handicap in Dec off OR130, but this is a lot more to ask of the 7yo especially off OR147, and he unseated his rider LTO.
Chambard: this 12yo won the "Kim Muir" in 2022, but surely won't figure in this race.
Minella Crooner: a top novice chaser, this 8yo has not set the world alight this season and may struggle, as recent run didn't suggest a change in form.
Kitty's Light: Loves Ayr, and the right-handed tracks of London; I can't see this 8yo enjoying Cheltenham, but could well stay on strong.
Gevrey: ran 4th in the "Plate" over 2m4f+ last season, then ran 2nd in the Irish National over 3m5f. Won the Munster National in October, but pulled-up twice since: OR145 looks tough.
Eklat De Rire: A top novice chaser in 2020-21, has had problems so is lightly raced for a 10yo, and if he retains any ability he has slipped to a very useful rating of OR144.
Victtorino: He didn't look suited to the track when racing here in January, seems to handle right-handed tracks best.
Busselton:  Comprehensively beaten on 27Dec (race won by Meetingofthewaters), however ran 5th in "Hennessey" in 2022 off OR149, this 7yo likes to run prominently, so not without a chance. 
Trelawne: winner of a 3-mile hurdle, so could stay this trip, but stamina is unproven. 
Twig: this 9yo has never raced on ground worse than good-to-soft, however ran well when 2nd here on 28Oct. Didn't enjoy "Hennessey" on 02Dec, and not seen since; could be interesting.

Chianti Classico: this 7yo novice chaser looks the type to do well, but does make the odd error, and he's no experience of a big field like this.

Found On: this 9yo mare goes well off a break, but the ground may well be too soft for this "good" ground specialist. 

Lord Du Mesnil: this 11yo will stay the trip will, but likely in his own time.

Excello: this 5yo is tricky to gauge, he didn't look like he enjoyed the track in January, but his last race in France (before joining Henderson) suggests he should enjoy the trip and ground. Interesting.

Famous Bridge: this 8yo has winning form at the trip and on the ground, but trainer Nicky Richards tends to not do well when coming South of Birmingham. could stay on late.

Weveallbeencaught: a 7yo novice chaser, without looking a winner in 3 races to date.

Risk And Roll: a 10yo who probably should not be in the race, with just 3 wins from 19 chase races.

My shortlist is 

Stumptown: 10/1 with William Hill (6-places 5th odds a place);

Monbeg Genius: 14/1 (6-places, 5th odds a place) Bet365, William Hill, Betfred;

Twig: 20/1 (6-places, 5th odds a place) Bet365, William Hill, Coral;

I will also have a couple of "place-only" wagers on Excello and Busselton on the exchanges.