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Record of the blog selections
Profit for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £84.38
from wagers on 26 individual selections (4 winners, 6 placed)
Total Staked = £280.00
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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.
Wednesday, 13 November 2013
Major value at Bangor today
Another day without a winner yesterday as the selection SALMANAZAR unfortunately lost his legs jumping the 3rd-last flight (while still in contention) and never recovered. Today we have a couple of meetings at Bangor and Exeter, and some great racing.
Possibly the best race of the day is the 3m & ½f chase at 1:50 at Bangor. There are 5 alert runners of mine in this from the 9 runners: Quartz De Thaix, Our Mick, What A Warrior, Midnight Appeal, and Loch Ba. From these in my opinion it is Our Mick who has the favorite's chance based on last seasons for. He goes well fresh, is a strong traveller and will handle this trip and the soft ground. His rating of OR145 is fair given he is potentially a 150+ horse. Last year's winner (who I tipped) Quartz De Thaix is now rated 18lb higher on OR148 and he will go well as I also think he's 150+ horse. What A Warrior is a tricky horse to assess, but I don't think he's up to staying this trip against this opposition, and he may be best around 2m6f. There's no doubt Loch Ba came of age last season with some tremendous displays, notably when winning at Newbury in January over 3-mile. He's also won his seasonal debut for the past couple of seasons, so we know he goes fresh. Thing is, compared to Our Mick and (especially) MIDNIGHT APPEAL he looks poorly handicapped. I also wonder if he's happier going right-handed as other than when winning at Newbury, which is a vast flat left-handed oval track, all his best form has been on right-handed tracks. Not only that, he's not run well on his last couple of runs on LH tracks at Aintree and Cheltenham. That leaves me with MIDNIGHT APPEAL. He spent all last season exploiting a reasonable hurdle rating after a very promising chase season when he won 5 of 9 races, being in the 1st-3 every time he completed. His only failure was when falling at Cheltenham when 10/1 for the "Kim Miur" Chase off OR136. He runs off OR132 today which I think is exceptionally lenient. Consider that he hammered Loch Ba when winning at Sandown in Feb 2012 at level weights (he gets a 1lb from Loch Ba today).
MIDNIGHT APPEAL goes well fresh, is very consistent and almost certainly under-rated as a chaser, we have a wagering opportunity – especially as the odds are so generous at 25/1 with Ladbrokes and 20/1 with Betfred, and Bet365. Only 9 go to post so the wager has to be eachway at those odds. Sure, I can see OUR MICK taking this race, but I'll be happy for 2nd or 3rd at 25/1.
Only the one selection today:-
Bangor 1.50, MIDNIGHT APPEAL, £5 eachway @ 25/1 with Ladbrokes