From the 3 trainers in form who I highlighted yesterday I gave you 1 winner in AVRILO - but suggested it was a "no bet" - and my selection from the trio, NORTH CAPE was beaten having set the race up for the 'danger' (which I highlighted). The other runner - DADS AMIGO - was outclassed as expected.
It seems that I'm finding winners with this selection procedure, but they are not coming from where I'm expecting. Perhaps it may be best to place a wager on all the qualifiers. Let's see what we have today.
There are 23 trainers "in form" - that is having achieved places from 40% of their runners and at least 3 winner in the past 14-days (see Sporting Life stats). Of those 23 trainers, just 4 have single entries today:-
A Bailey in the 3:30 at Haydock AUTUMN BLADES
J Gosden in the 4:30 at Newmarket KEY WEST
J Howard Johnson in the 4:15 at Beverley TOMBI
Al Zarooni in the 4:30 at Newmarket ECLIPTIC
The Newmarket race at 4:30 looks very hot and with a double-entry from the qualifiers is a no-bet situation (no doubt this will ccome back to bite me). AUTUMN BLADES looks totally outclassed in the John O' Gaunt Stakes at Haydock, so it has to be a no-bet; but then again at 66/1 is may be worth a tickle on the place-only market. TOMBI looks very interesting in the 4:15 at Beverley. This will be only his 3rd 5f race. In his 2nd he was badly hampered and did not recover, so that can be ignored. In his 1st 5f race he ran Morinqua to under 2-lengths at York as a 3yo. Todays Good-to-Firm is his going and he could be a real surprise in this race. He's 16/1 with Betfred and 14's generally - I'd take it win & place.
Saturday, 29 May 2010
Friday, 28 May 2010
Candy-man comes North
A good day yesterday for my "OROD" (only runner of day) trend-spotter. It produced 2 winners (at odds of 15/8 and 9/4) from just 4 possibles in WHERE'S ROMEO and DINKIM DIAMOND. I readily admit I didn't make either one a selection yesterday, but I did say the fav in the race won by DINKUM DIAMOND - that fav was Cape To Rio - should be opposed as it was most likely not to enjoy the Good-to-Firm going being by Cape Rio, and that's what proved.
There's lots of racing to choose from today with 3 meetings this afternoon at Brighton (my local track), Newcastle and Newmarket; and 3 evening meetings at Haydock and Pontefract with Stratford over the jumps. With 39 races and about 400 horses entered to run, you cannot hope to analyse each race sufficiently - you have to either specialise in a particular type of race, or look for an angle that you consider will give you an edge. If you can find the winner in 1 race from every 4 you have a wager on, and that winner is at odds of 7/2 (4.50 in decimals) or greater, then you are making a profit long-term. That's what its all about, outside of the pleasure of racing.
For days like this, and for flat-racing in particular, I rely on statistics - mainly trainer statistics. As of this morning, there are 21 trainers on the flat who have achieved a 40%+ placed strike-rate from their stable with at least 3 winners in the past 14-days. It may come as a surprise to learn that Sir Michael Stoute is not among that group - he's had just 1 winner from his last 14 runners. But Stoute sends a single runner 244 miles to Newcastle today where he's sent only 10 runners in the past 5 seasons and 3 of that 10 have won. Will Sposalizio win today? If it does, it wont have my money on it as I cannot remember when Sir Michael Stoute last had a runner in a class 6 3yo maiden auction. The Newcastle card looks a nightmare for punters, all class 6 and class 5 races, and is best left alone unless someone "in the know" gives you the nod.
There are 7 trainers with a 40% placed strike-rate with single runners today, and 4 of them send their only runner for the same race; the 2:20 at Newmarket. They are
Alan Bailey with On Wings Of Love,
Paul D'Arcy with Pearl Haven,
Ed Dunlop with Volcanic Dust, and
John Gosden with Apazine.
This looks a race to watch and take note of as it seems its being hotly contested.
The other 3 trainers will single runners are:-
MS Saunders with AVRILO in the 2:00 at Brighton,
DH Brown with DADS AMIGO in the 7:30 at Pontefract,
H Candy with NORTH CAPE in the 6:30 at Pontefract.
I am going to pass-over AVRILO because I reckon it only just gets 5 furlongs and the extra 59 yards may find him out. Also, Ask Jenny is due to go up 5lb in its next race for its recent win, and Brighton course-specialise Magical Speedfit looks primed for a big run after coming a close-up 3rd here yesterday over 6-furlongs which is too far for him. If anything, I'd lay AVRILO as its currently 5/2 and will likely start shorter, and I make it a 4/1 chance. There's nothing else that interests me at Brighton.
Henry Candy's NORTH CAPE looks to hold a decent chance at Pontefract, given he's come 175 miles for this race. Dropped from 10f to a mile for this, he will almost certainly go from the front and make it a stiff stamina test. That may well set the race up for a finisher, and on the formbook that should be course-winner Harriet's Girl but his regular jockey has deserted him for stablemate Chief Red Cloud and at the weights Harriet's Girl holds the better chance. That "confusion" allied with only 1 win from 21 runners in past 14-days from their trainer JR Weymes pushed me more towards NORTH CAPE. Currently 5/2 in a place, I would not take less than that, but I reckon you may get better nearer the off.
DADS AMIGO meets a handful of decent 2yo's in what looks a hot conditions race, and he'll need to improve 20lb on his debut win to take this.
So, just the one selection: NORTH CAPE in the 6:30 at Pontefract - take 5/2+
There's lots of racing to choose from today with 3 meetings this afternoon at Brighton (my local track), Newcastle and Newmarket; and 3 evening meetings at Haydock and Pontefract with Stratford over the jumps. With 39 races and about 400 horses entered to run, you cannot hope to analyse each race sufficiently - you have to either specialise in a particular type of race, or look for an angle that you consider will give you an edge. If you can find the winner in 1 race from every 4 you have a wager on, and that winner is at odds of 7/2 (4.50 in decimals) or greater, then you are making a profit long-term. That's what its all about, outside of the pleasure of racing.
For days like this, and for flat-racing in particular, I rely on statistics - mainly trainer statistics. As of this morning, there are 21 trainers on the flat who have achieved a 40%+ placed strike-rate from their stable with at least 3 winners in the past 14-days. It may come as a surprise to learn that Sir Michael Stoute is not among that group - he's had just 1 winner from his last 14 runners. But Stoute sends a single runner 244 miles to Newcastle today where he's sent only 10 runners in the past 5 seasons and 3 of that 10 have won. Will Sposalizio win today? If it does, it wont have my money on it as I cannot remember when Sir Michael Stoute last had a runner in a class 6 3yo maiden auction. The Newcastle card looks a nightmare for punters, all class 6 and class 5 races, and is best left alone unless someone "in the know" gives you the nod.
There are 7 trainers with a 40% placed strike-rate with single runners today, and 4 of them send their only runner for the same race; the 2:20 at Newmarket. They are
Alan Bailey with On Wings Of Love,
Paul D'Arcy with Pearl Haven,
Ed Dunlop with Volcanic Dust, and
John Gosden with Apazine.
This looks a race to watch and take note of as it seems its being hotly contested.
The other 3 trainers will single runners are:-
MS Saunders with AVRILO in the 2:00 at Brighton,
DH Brown with DADS AMIGO in the 7:30 at Pontefract,
H Candy with NORTH CAPE in the 6:30 at Pontefract.
I am going to pass-over AVRILO because I reckon it only just gets 5 furlongs and the extra 59 yards may find him out. Also, Ask Jenny is due to go up 5lb in its next race for its recent win, and Brighton course-specialise Magical Speedfit looks primed for a big run after coming a close-up 3rd here yesterday over 6-furlongs which is too far for him. If anything, I'd lay AVRILO as its currently 5/2 and will likely start shorter, and I make it a 4/1 chance. There's nothing else that interests me at Brighton.
Henry Candy's NORTH CAPE looks to hold a decent chance at Pontefract, given he's come 175 miles for this race. Dropped from 10f to a mile for this, he will almost certainly go from the front and make it a stiff stamina test. That may well set the race up for a finisher, and on the formbook that should be course-winner Harriet's Girl but his regular jockey has deserted him for stablemate Chief Red Cloud and at the weights Harriet's Girl holds the better chance. That "confusion" allied with only 1 win from 21 runners in past 14-days from their trainer JR Weymes pushed me more towards NORTH CAPE. Currently 5/2 in a place, I would not take less than that, but I reckon you may get better nearer the off.
DADS AMIGO meets a handful of decent 2yo's in what looks a hot conditions race, and he'll need to improve 20lb on his debut win to take this.
So, just the one selection: NORTH CAPE in the 6:30 at Pontefract - take 5/2+
Thursday, 27 May 2010
Another day, another dollar?
The more I watched yesterdays selection SIRENUSE run, the more annoyed I got. Its one I have to put down to experience and its a valuable lesson to those reading this blog that the "best" horse in the race may not win due to other factors, and that's why you have to only wager money at odds that represent value. I can accept a horse getting beaten, but I did expect it to lead well into the final furlong and that in-running odds would go below 1.80. If you read my comments attached to yesterdays blog you will see that I was happy with the debut chase run of OVERSPIN (not a selection this one, more one to note for the future) as he jumped the 1st-8 fences perfectly well, before crumpling on landing at the 9th. Keep an eye out for his next run.
Some ordinary racing around the country today, but there is a very good meeting at Sandown. And its there that we may have an opportunity with the only runner of the day from a trainer in-form: Henry Candy's DINKUM DIAMOND in the 6:35. Now, I am not one for 2yo races and so I am not going to make this a blog selection; but the good-to-firm going will not suit the fav Cape To Rio who is by Captain Rio (and will want to get his toe in the ground). Its worth opposing the fav at these odds.
There are only 4 trainers "in-form" (ie, with 40% of runners in the places in past 14-days) with single runners out today, and along with Henry Candy we have runners from:-
RM Beckett - MISS MITTAGONG in the 9:15 at Newcastle
Ed Dunlop - DECENCY in the 5:30 at Wolverhampton (AW)
DH Brown - WHERES ROMEO in the 2:20 at Ayr
Of those, I like the chance of MISS MITTAGONG best as it travels 328 miles to Newcastle. But, Brannagh in the same race travels 245 miles for this and it looks a tricky race. DECENCY is running in a class 6 race, and those should be avoided like the plague. WHERES ROMEO is another 2yo and, at this stage of the season, young horses can improve 20lb in a matter of days so its not really realistic to be making selections.
So, another day without a wager and one to watch and savour.
Some ordinary racing around the country today, but there is a very good meeting at Sandown. And its there that we may have an opportunity with the only runner of the day from a trainer in-form: Henry Candy's DINKUM DIAMOND in the 6:35. Now, I am not one for 2yo races and so I am not going to make this a blog selection; but the good-to-firm going will not suit the fav Cape To Rio who is by Captain Rio (and will want to get his toe in the ground). Its worth opposing the fav at these odds.
There are only 4 trainers "in-form" (ie, with 40% of runners in the places in past 14-days) with single runners out today, and along with Henry Candy we have runners from:-
RM Beckett - MISS MITTAGONG in the 9:15 at Newcastle
Ed Dunlop - DECENCY in the 5:30 at Wolverhampton (AW)
DH Brown - WHERES ROMEO in the 2:20 at Ayr
Of those, I like the chance of MISS MITTAGONG best as it travels 328 miles to Newcastle. But, Brannagh in the same race travels 245 miles for this and it looks a tricky race. DECENCY is running in a class 6 race, and those should be avoided like the plague. WHERES ROMEO is another 2yo and, at this stage of the season, young horses can improve 20lb in a matter of days so its not really realistic to be making selections.
So, another day without a wager and one to watch and savour.
Wednesday, 26 May 2010
Eclipse Magazine
For anyone who may be interested in racing's social side I recommend a visit to the Eclipse Magazine website: www.eclipsemagazine.co.uk
There are a few decent, free-to-enter competitions plus other offers. Take a look and take advantage.
There are a few decent, free-to-enter competitions plus other offers. Take a look and take advantage.
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