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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87
from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)
Total Staked = £609.00
Friday, 28 May 2010
Candy-man comes North
There's lots of racing to choose from today with 3 meetings this afternoon at Brighton (my local track), Newcastle and Newmarket; and 3 evening meetings at Haydock and Pontefract with Stratford over the jumps. With 39 races and about 400 horses entered to run, you cannot hope to analyse each race sufficiently - you have to either specialise in a particular type of race, or look for an angle that you consider will give you an edge. If you can find the winner in 1 race from every 4 you have a wager on, and that winner is at odds of 7/2 (4.50 in decimals) or greater, then you are making a profit long-term. That's what its all about, outside of the pleasure of racing.
For days like this, and for flat-racing in particular, I rely on statistics - mainly trainer statistics. As of this morning, there are 21 trainers on the flat who have achieved a 40%+ placed strike-rate from their stable with at least 3 winners in the past 14-days. It may come as a surprise to learn that Sir Michael Stoute is not among that group - he's had just 1 winner from his last 14 runners. But Stoute sends a single runner 244 miles to Newcastle today where he's sent only 10 runners in the past 5 seasons and 3 of that 10 have won. Will Sposalizio win today? If it does, it wont have my money on it as I cannot remember when Sir Michael Stoute last had a runner in a class 6 3yo maiden auction. The Newcastle card looks a nightmare for punters, all class 6 and class 5 races, and is best left alone unless someone "in the know" gives you the nod.
There are 7 trainers with a 40% placed strike-rate with single runners today, and 4 of them send their only runner for the same race; the 2:20 at Newmarket. They are
Alan Bailey with On Wings Of Love,
Paul D'Arcy with Pearl Haven,
Ed Dunlop with Volcanic Dust, and
John Gosden with Apazine.
This looks a race to watch and take note of as it seems its being hotly contested.
The other 3 trainers will single runners are:-
MS Saunders with AVRILO in the 2:00 at Brighton,
DH Brown with DADS AMIGO in the 7:30 at Pontefract,
H Candy with NORTH CAPE in the 6:30 at Pontefract.
I am going to pass-over AVRILO because I reckon it only just gets 5 furlongs and the extra 59 yards may find him out. Also, Ask Jenny is due to go up 5lb in its next race for its recent win, and Brighton course-specialise Magical Speedfit looks primed for a big run after coming a close-up 3rd here yesterday over 6-furlongs which is too far for him. If anything, I'd lay AVRILO as its currently 5/2 and will likely start shorter, and I make it a 4/1 chance. There's nothing else that interests me at Brighton.
Henry Candy's NORTH CAPE looks to hold a decent chance at Pontefract, given he's come 175 miles for this race. Dropped from 10f to a mile for this, he will almost certainly go from the front and make it a stiff stamina test. That may well set the race up for a finisher, and on the formbook that should be course-winner Harriet's Girl but his regular jockey has deserted him for stablemate Chief Red Cloud and at the weights Harriet's Girl holds the better chance. That "confusion" allied with only 1 win from 21 runners in past 14-days from their trainer JR Weymes pushed me more towards NORTH CAPE. Currently 5/2 in a place, I would not take less than that, but I reckon you may get better nearer the off.
DADS AMIGO meets a handful of decent 2yo's in what looks a hot conditions race, and he'll need to improve 20lb on his debut win to take this.
So, just the one selection: NORTH CAPE in the 6:30 at Pontefract - take 5/2+