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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Thursday, 12 August 2010

CALATRAVA CAPE is on a lenient mark

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections
2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List

Review of yesterday’s racing
Yesterday’s blog selection GO GO GREEN held every chance 250 yards out being in 2nd on the shoulder of the leader with the eventual winner in-behind in 3rd; but then found nothing. If the horse was in the form of last autumn (or even earlier this year) it would have been in the places, so one to avoid until it shows some promise. The winner and 2nd, Mey Blossom and Discanti, ran exceptional races for the grade and can be followed.
Other performances to note from yesterday were the hat-trick (3 wins from 4 rides) by Kieren Fallon – he is riding exceptionally well lately.
Barney Curley had a winner with SIR MOZART who was highlighted on the blog, no tomfoolery about this horse.

Today’s Racing Selections
There’s plenty of racing today.
Can’t see anything of interest at Beverley, nor at Chepstow (both are low grade meetings). At Epsom there’s some good racing, especially the 3:25, a class 3 handicap over 7f which looks wide open. One I mentioned on the blog on Tuesday – Mishrif – runs again in this and he will ensure a decent pace. It would be just my luck if he nicks this race (ran in a Listed race here off OR97 when with Peter Chapple-Hyam) from the front.
The afternoon meeting at Salisbury has some good racing. In the 3:40, I came across CALATRAVA CAPE last year when she ran at Goodwood. She was unlucky in running that day, and again NTO; but she’s looked much better this season over 12f and appears to be on a lenient mark of OR79.
The meeting at Goodwood looks interesting and I’m taken by TOQIAK in the 7:35 who makes a huge drop in grade for this class 3 handicap. The only runner today for Ed Dunlop, he could be the dark horse in this @ 12/1.

Salisbury 3:40, CALATRAVA CAPE, ½pt each-way & 1pt win @ 5/1
Total = 2pts staked

2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List
Going Wrong, 7yo hurdler (novice chaser) trained by Ferdy MURPHY

I took a long time thinking over whether to include this one as he could well go novice chasing this season and there’s no way of knowing how he’ll cope with jumping fences. He had just two hurdle runs last season, but both were great efforts. First time out (off a 310-day break) he beat the subsequent OR148 Wymott at level weights by 2-lengths in a gutsy performance from the front. He was ridden with a lot of confidence that day despite starting at 11/1. On his next run, he was caught close-home and btn just a neck by Bygones Of Brid (who ended the season on OR142) and to whom he was giving 5lb. Both those runs suggest GOING WRONG is probably an OR145+ hurdler, but his current mark is OR130. Why? The first race was under-rated due to the slow time, but the 1st-2 pulled well clear of the remainder who were annihilated. In the next race, GOING WRONG ran off OR126 and easily went clear after the last flight only to idle in the last 50 yards and be caught. Had he been ridden out to the line and maintained his advantage he’d be on OR140+. No reason has been given for his absence from the track since that run on 28-Nov (he was his stables only runner on that Saturday afternoon), but if nothing was seriously wrong he looks extremely well handicapped as a hurdler. Ferdy Murphy has always considered him a chaser in the making and the potential is certainly there whichever field he aims the horse for. He is a real RSA candidate from a tremendous chasing family (related to Dublin Flyer).

I’ve added a new page for the master list of Chasers & Hurdlers, so refer to that for all the previous write-ups that have been posted on the blog. If you have any comments, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

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  1. Mishrif ran to the level of form I was expecting on Tuesday, and was a good 2nd @ 15/2. He can win off this mark of OR78.

  2. CALATRAVA CAPE lost it on the line having looked the winner with 50 yards to go - that's two short-head defeats in 2 weeks for my blog selections (Dolphin Rock went down last week).