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LOSS for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00


Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, at cumulative stakes of £5,726 - which has resulted in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 equivalent to a Return on Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Wednesday, 18 August 2010

Ebor meeting at York - Day 2

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections
2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List

Review of yesterday’s racing
That was a great opening day at the York Ebor meeting, and full marks to Johnny Murtagh for his ride on Rip Van Winkle as - in my opinion - the horse looked held and beaten entering the final furlong. There is not much between Byword and Twice Over, tho’ Twice Over is a very tricky ride as the moment he gets his head in front he thinks he’s done enough – I’m sure had he come from behind to nab Byword closer to home and challenged alongside Rip Van Winkle then he’d have found a bit more and prevailed. But that’s racing for you!
What is interesting about this meeting at York is that all the runners are foregoing the rails on either side, and coming down the middle of the course. The draw seems to be irrelevant, and it’s more jockeyship that is the key. In the Great Voltigeur, Rewilding looked immense and I would not be surprised if connections decided to bypass the St Leger (note: no ‘d” in Leger) and go straight for the ‘Arc’ at Longchamp.
The other impressive performance was that of Sweet Lightening, who was cantering over 2f-out and picked up the leaders without breaking sweat, before unleashing a turn-of-foot that took the race inside 100 yards. He is another that thinks he’s done enough when his head is in front, but he held on to the lead to win by just a “head”.

Today’s Racing Selections
It’s day 2 of the Ebor meeting at York, but first a glance thru’ the rest of what’s on offer today.
Nothing much at Carlisle, other than Adrian Nicholls rides in a claimer for Dandy Nicholls, and this pair have a tremendous strike-rate in such races (about 35%), so don’t ignore Silaah in the 2:05.
There is more of interest at Folkestone, where Willie Haggas sends CLOUDS END for the 6:00. He did not stay the mile LTO, and this return to 7f should see this half-brother to Group 2 winner Airwave, back in the winner’s enclosure. Also, when Luca Cumani visits Folkestone take note; he sends his only runner of the day here for the 7:30 ISOBAR. Cumani won 2 from his only 2 runners at Brighton yesterday, and he is 10 from 30 here, and if you dismiss his 2yo’s (1 from 9) he is 9 wins from 21 runners from older horses, and a remarkable 4 wins from 5 with 4yo’s and up. If that’s not a pointer, I don’t know what is. I cannot see anything of interest at Hamilton despite it looking an attractive day’s racing.
Onto York, and when John Dunlop sends runners here then he usually means business, with 10 wins from 38 runners (26% strike-rate). He has 2 here today, and I think he may have a winning double. In the opener at 1:45 TIMES UP may have top-weight with 9:13 but then his trainer John Dunlop sent Camrose to win this race in 2005 with 9:12 so it can be done. Drawn 2 of 18, he should be handy enough and can lead them into the final furlong. There are a few with chances in this competitive race, Thin Red Line, Anhar, Chilly Filly, Tepmokea quickly jump from the page – so not a race to invest heavily in. Next on the card at 2:15, John Dunlop has his other runner AKMAL. On Official ratings he has much to find off OR109, but he easily beat Illustrious Blue (OR116) when receiving 2lb in a Group 2 at Sandown and I think he’s the only true Group 2 class 2-miler in this race and at 9/1 he looks worthy of an each-way selection in this 9-runner race. A big danger could be Samuel if he can follow-up his promising return after 2 years off the track with injury.
In the Ebor, it looks a tough nut to crack, but Sir Mark Prescott put FORTUNI away after winning LTO – and that looks red-hot form in hindsight – and he won’t be far away. But this is a race I will be watching rather than having a wager.

Selections:
York 2:15 AKMAL, ½pt each-way @ 9/1
Folkestone 6:00, CLOUDS END, 1pt win @ 3/1
Folkestone 7:30, ISOBAR, ½pt each-way @ 5/1
Total = 3pts staked

2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List
MONT PRESENT, 6yo chaser trained by Phil HOBBS

Possibly very unlucky to meet some progressive types, the 6yo MONT PRESENT could have matured this summer to take advantage of what could be a lenient mark. He won his last start over 2m 7f, but that was not his finest hour, nor was the previous race when 3rd over 3m 1f at Ayr. That run possibly showed that he does not stay beyond 3-mile. It was his 2nd to Carrickmines at Ludlow in March and, before that, when 2nd to Sunnyhillboy (also at Ludlow) that were his best runs. Both those horses went on to much improved runs NTO and are now rated 15lb and 12lb higher respectively. MONT PRESENT would meet those two on much better terms and yet, being just a 6yo, he has time to mature on his side and the likelihood to do it. Looking at his form, I don’t think he really stays beyond 2m6f (was probably fortunate to win his final start) and if we see him over 20f-21f on good going this autumn we could see a chaser that makes a mockery of his OR122 rating, and he is one that I expect to see being well over OR130 (maybe even OR140) by the end of the next season.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

3 comments:

  1. SILAAH wins @ 5/2 making it 33 wins from 103 rides for Adrian Nicholls in non-handicap races this season, compared to 13 wins from 140 rides in handicaps. Not sure about TIMES UP - was last entering the straight, then ran into a wall of horses inside the 2f-pole, finally in the clear it came with a late rattle - but too late! Probably could have gone very, very close.
    Non-runners at Folkestone mean that the value has gone with ISOBAR now.

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  2. Great blog, Wayward Lad! Particularly impressed by the posts looking at the forthcoming jumps season. Haven't done anything like the work you have; a couple I want to see again include Cheltenham's (forgotten?) bumper winner Cue Card and Nicky Henderson's Punchestowns who suffered a setback just before the Festival and ripped a shoe off in the RSA Chase, a run I'm prepared to forgive.

    I also think the Alan King stable will be intent on a fast start; last season the yard was slowly into its stride, and never really recovered. Mr King lost a number of owners as a result and won't want a repeat this time around.

    Keep up a the good work!

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  3. Thanks for the compliments Gee Dee. My policy last jumps season was to spot well-handicapped horses and follow them. It resulted in my best ever set of results. I use the Horse Alert facility on www.easyodds.com (free) and get an email when a horse on the list is due to run. I've named 11 horses so far, have perhaps another 4 or 5 to add. There are not many followers to the blog, perhaps 20-30 regulars, so by having the list you are in a select bunch.

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