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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Thursday, 16 December 2010
Rest easy Twist Magic
Pistol Basc never got a look-in for his race with the going looking too taxing for most of the runners. In the next on the card at Bangor, Gilsland did prove hard to beat, but he went down by just a head at 4/1 – unlucky. The novice hurdle was won by hurdling debutant BACKSPIN, and didn’t he win it well! Make a note of this one as he could have won this by 20-lengths.
At Fairyhouse, we saw some cracking racing. Make a note of this one – ZAIDPOUR, a half-brother to Zaynar. He won as he liked yesterday with some decent horses behind. He’s just 5/1 for the Supreme Novices Hurdle at the Festival, but I reckon he’ll be more suited by the Neptune for which he’s 6/1. But there’s a long way to go yet.
HURRICANE FLY winning the Hatton’s Grace hurdle over 2m4f was perhaps the best form he’s showed (in my opinion). Even so, the result was pretty much in-line with the ratings of the others and perhaps the disappointment was Solwhit not being more of a match. You can get 11/2 about HURRICANE FLY for the Champion Hurdle, but that looks skinny to me. I admit, my 25/1 assessment prior to yesterday’s race was a bit harsh, but I would be looking for 10’s before having an interest. I’m more interested in the fact that PEDDLERS CROSS has been eased in a few places to 13/2 for the CH – this horse knows his way around Cheltenham, and has yet to have his ability fathomed.
The John Durkan was won by TRANQUIL SEA (as I expected yesterday) with J’Y VOLE in 2nd (again, as I expected) but the result did not change my opinion of POQUELIN for the Ryanair next March.
It was a fair chase debut (outside France) for MIKAEL D’HAGUENET, but he fell at the last when he had yet to wrest the lead from eventual winner Jessie’s Dream. Whatever way you look at it, this was not RSA winning form. Jessie’s Dream has not suddenly improved 20lb to win this race, tho’ I would say it was a personal-best performance.
Following yesterday’s jump racing bonanza, we have two solid meetings at Towcester and Exter today.
Jonjo O’Neill has a tremendous strike rate at Towcester, which gets even better with his chasers – 21 wins from 61 runners (34%). In the 1:10, a 3-mile h’cap chase, he sends out C&D winner AZTEC TREASURE who is the top-weight for this. Talented claimer Richie McLernon takes of 3lb, and it is hard to see another in this race troubling the pair. The morning joint-fav Topless is very consistent – at coming 2nd! From 20 chase runs he’s yet to win, but has been 2nd seven times – and has even unseated his rider at the last fence when 5 lengths clear. For me, AZTEC TREASURE at 7/2 looks a decent wager. Later on the card, Jonjo O’Neill can secure a double with RATE OF KNOTS in the 2m6f chase at 2:10. Again, Richie McLernon is in the saddle, and again RATE OF KNOTS is a C&D winner. He lost his form last season, and his reappearance last month was not up to much either; but McLernon gets on well with the horse and he may be able to tease a return to form out of him as he’s 4lb below his last winning rating and 10lb off his highest.
Exeter goes ahead, and at the end of last season I made a mental note to have a wager on this horse if the word “soft” was in the going description – CHAPOTURGEON. I realise that Nicholls also runs his “Arkle” hopeful Royal Charm in the race, and that he gets 7lb from CHAPOTURGEON, but he’s going to have to show some decent form to beat him today. Be fair, the race Royal Charm won was a doddle, and that’s been his only chase race to date. CHAPOTURGEON is capable of running to OR160+ and he will be fit for this. Remember, his is only a 6yo. Odds of 6/1 (Stan James) look mighty generous to me.
Towcester 1:10, AZTEC TREASURE, 1pt win @ 3/1 (odds just been cut)
Exeter 1:50, CHAPOTURGEON, 1pt win @ 11/2 (odds just been cut)
Total = 2pts staked
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