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Record of the blog selections

Profit for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £84.38

from wagers on 26 individual selections (4 winners, 6 placed)

Total Staked = £280.00


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Tuesday, 18 January 2011

Celebrations tonight at the Eight Bells?

Anna Newton-Smith who trains at Jevington (near Eastbourne) in Sussex (if your down that way, take in the Eight Bells pub, fantastic view over the South Downs, and pictures of Anna’s horses line the walls) only ever has winners at her local tracks of Plumpton, Folkestone, Lingfield and Fontwell – and at Plumpton and Fontwell she has very respectable strike-rates with her chasers. As such, you cannot ignore her two entries at Folkestone today; PEAT THE FEAT in the 3:10 and PORTRAIT ROYALE in the 3:40. When Felix de Giles rides it means her horses should be taken seriously.

At Southwell, in the opening race at 1:00, KING JACK could take the spoils. Not the best of jumpers, he should appreciate these smaller obstacles. He has been off 301 days, and has needed a run in the past, but even so he looks on a handy mark when you look at the race he won at Huntingdon last February. He does not stay 3-mile, so his next run can be ignored. But LTO, he was going well for a long way till giving-up before 2-out. With several race-fit and consistent rivals in the race, on reflection the current odds of just 6/1 are not generous enough to warrant a wager.

When Jason Maguire rides for Kim Bailey, take notice. He’s won 9 of 32 rides (28%) for Bailey this season, and 7 of those wins have come from just 20 hurdle races (35%). As such, his booking to ride MAX BYGRAVES in the 3:00 at Southwell is interesting. The downside is that MAX BYGRAVES is trying 3-mile for the first time (never run beyond 2m5f before) and the going is also on the soft side for the horse. Again, current odds of 11/2 are not generous to make this horse a selection, in fact at those odds I’d be more inclined to make him a place-lay and lay him at under 2.30 as, apart from the jockey booking, there is little to recommend the horse in this race.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad

3 comments:

  1. Good shout on Max I felt he'd run really well today alas not to be and a place lay must have been nice.

    ReplyDelete
  2. No firm selections, but the narrative on the blog put you in the money if you were brave enough. As I expected, with the going against him MAX BYGRAVES was unable to stay the 3-mile trip. With Jason Maguire in the saddle, the office punters latched on and his odds tumbled from 11/2 (he was 8/1 in the RP betting forecast) to an SP of just 7/2 which - given his stamina doubts and known aversion to soft going - was plain ridiculous. Never an odds-on chance to be in the 1st-3, this was a place-lay bonanza.
    Just 10 mins later, PETE THE FEAT romped home at Folkestone at the generous odds of 11/4 (he touched 100/30). He was just 7/4 in the RP BF and I thought he'd start shorter than that, hence not being put up as a selection.
    Cheers for the comment Kejiskeen.

    ReplyDelete
  3. btw Wayward, any chance of being added to your blogroll? I've already got you on mine.

    http://kejiskeen.wordpress.com/

    Kind Regards,

    ReplyDelete