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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Thursday, 29 September 2011
We may have a lovely time today at Bangor
There is an interesting meeting at Bangor this afternoon and my attention has been captured by the 3:50; a 2m1f h’cap chase.
There has been a significant move in the betting market for the Jonjo O’Neill trained Adajal, ridden by AP McCoy. This horse will be fit from hurdling but, on what we’ve seen of him over fences in the UK, he’s plain slow. Unless the horse has undergone a complete “reboot”, I think he can be opposed. Adajal is the 5/1 joint-fav with Tilly Ann, however I reckon the latter would prefer another couple of furlongs as she is also on the slow side. Next in the market is Restezen D’Amour who comes into the race fresh from a 182-day break. He’s run well fresh before and today’s trip will suit him (doesn’t stay much further). However, unless his in-form trainer Charlie Longsdon has worked the oracle with him it’s unlikely this horse will have the resolve to win the race at the business end if he’s challenged. Macauley was the RP BF fav, but he’s only just moved to Phil Hobbs stable and is unlikely to have benefitted from the move just yet. Up To The Mark is another slow horse, too measured with his jumping. I’m not sure what to make of Saddlers Deal; he’s looked capable at times, but his jumping can let him down. Jim Tango is also fit from hurdling, and he’s also well handicapped on his chase form. However, he is very one-paced at the business end and he’d be one I’d be laying at under 2.50 after the 2nd-last if he’s being challenged. Midnight Opera has only had one chase, and that was fair. As such, I expect him to improve on that display especially as he has some decent form (good speed figures) at hurdling. He’s one that’s likely to ensure a good pace (along with Jim Tango).
That leaves just Michigan Assassin and Pin D’Estruval.
Another who likes to run prominently, Michigan Assassin drops from 2m4f for this, in fact it’s the first time he’s run in a chase under 2m4f. As he usually fades and makes mistakes in the final half-mile of his races, this drop in trip could be what he needs. When he last finished a class 4 chase, he was btn just 2½ lengths off OR112 (he’s on OR107 today) and that was after recovering from a momentous blunder at the 2nd-last fence. He should not be 20/1 (Corals & Boylesports), especially as in his last race he met some decent types who were clearly better than him.
As for Pin D’Estruval, he won well LTO and has been raised just 6lb. He may need the going to be a bit quicker, but it is good-to-firm in places and that may be enough. Again, he should not be 15/2 (Vic Chandler & Sportingbet).
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