Sunday 19th February - just 23 days to go

Not long now, and time to take a look at the betting to see if there is any opportunity lurking in the Cheltenham Festival betting. Before we go any further, what about Shishkin! He looks absolutely back to his best, and fully recovered from the head-to-head battle with Energumene at Ascot last season. He's entered for the Ryanair Chase, and I hope readers of the blog took note of my blog from 31st December: here's a reminder of what I wrote:- The Ryanair Chase.  It will be interesting if Shishkin goes for this race as it looks perfect for him at this time, and odds of 8/1 are worth a small wager as if he does line-up for this he will likely go off at 3/1.

I'm putting the following into eachway doubles and trebles. Why eachway and not win only? These selections "should" be in the 1st-3 of their respective races, but are either not likely to win (eg: Nube Negra, and Conflated) or could win if luck goes their way.

In the QMCC: Nube Negra

Ryanair: Shiskin & Conflated 

Stayers' Hurdle: Flooring Porter

Gold Cup: Stattler

Right now, I have Shishkin 10lb ahead of anything else likely to run in the Ryanair Chase, and I'm really surprised that 5/4 is readily available, as I think he should be odds-on for the race.  To me, this is a "Master Minded moment", and readers with longer memories will recall 2009 when Master Minded won the Champion Chase for the 2nd time at odds of 4/11 and many decent judges thought that was VALUE as he should have gone off at 1/8, he was such a certainty.  This is a massive advantage for the punter, and we have to include Shishkin as a "banker" in doubles and trebles.  I can see him having only 4 or 5 rivals in the Ryanair and starting the race with an SP of 2/5.

Who to couple him with? 

In the Turners Novice Chase we have Mighty Potter, who looks to have that race at his mercy, and is available at 11/8; and in the Arkle Nov Chase, blog readers are already on El Fabiolo.  It is probably not a good idea to tie that pair at current odds with Shishkin as it just creates another level of risk.

If we consider other races, is the Willie Mullins trained State Man capable of an upset in the Champion Hurdle? No horse is unbeatable, even Constitution Hill - and State Man might be capable.

The NH Chase may offer some better value, as I sincerely don't think either of the Mullins pair of Gaillard Du Mesnil and Ramillies are capable of winning this race on the form they've show to date. With Chemical Energy having to "recover" his form, the pair I think could provide the winner is Churchstonewarrior and Mahler Mission, and they are available at odds of around 6/1 (NRNB).  Those are not great odds, but it means we are not squandering the 5/4 available on Shishkin. 

The next race worth considering is the "Brown Advisory" and the fav Gerri Colombe @ 5/2 and Thyme Hill @ 6/1; I do not think either The Real Whacker or Sir Gerhard will be good enough. 

I'm going to think a bit more about this overnight, and finalise my selections tomorrow. 

(Monday evening: 20th Feb) Whichever races we look to for potential multiple wagers including Shishkin, they have to be the Grade 1 championship races, and we've looked at 5 of those already.  The Champion Chase is possibly too tricky to single-out a solid selection. There's no doubt that Energumene is a top-class two-mile chaser when you look back at his "match" with Shiskin at Ascot last year; and while he ran flat at the Cheltenham Trials meeting, it is not inconceivable that he will bounce-back from that. Edwardstone is probably better than he showed that day at Cheltenham, as his rider allowed the eventual winner Editeur Du Gite to get away from him. I just cannot see EDG being given as much rope in the QMCC, but there is another horse that could upset the leading fancies: Gentleman Du Mee. He is lightly raced, and is an improving 7yo; he could be very interesting on the day. No, the QMCC has too many complications for me.

The Stayers' Hurdle looks wide open on paper, but I think the front-3 in the betting Blazing Khal, Teahupoo, and Home By The Lee all have to raise their game to run better than 160 on my personal assessment. They are all just short of the mark, so the younger pair of Blazing Khal and Teahupoo are the ones more likely to find the required improvement. I'm still of the opinion that Flooring Porter is the one to beat in this race. 

I cannot begin to assess the Triumph Hurdle, and the 3-mile Albert Bartlett looks a real head-scratcher at this point. So it looks like I'm back to the 3 races I had with potential selections on Sunday:

NH Chase: Churchstonewarrior / Mahler Mission

Brown Advisory: Gerri Colombe / Thyme Hill

Unfortunately, the best odds available on NRNB terms are from BetVictor, who have:

11/10 on Shishkin

9/4 on Gerri Colombe,

5/1 on Thyme Hill,

6/1 on Churchstonewarrior,

8/1 on Mahler Mission

Those horses are combined in 4 x £5 win trebles:

1) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Gerri Colombe @ 9/4 plus Churchstonewarrior @ 6/1

2) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Thyme Hill @ 5/1 plus Churchstonewarrior @ 6/1

3) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Gerri Colombe @ 9/4 plus Mahler Mission @ 8/1

4) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Thyme Hill @ 5/1 plus Mahler Mission @ 8/1

Paul Nicholls in tip-top form

The 454th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Yesterday’s selection KASBADALI did not appreciate the soft going and yet still stayed on well enough to take 3rd after the last flight in a race run at a sound gallop. I reckon when the sun starts to shine and the ground dries in the next couple of weeks he’ll run better, and he could be one for Aintree. The winner Hildisvini stayed-on really well, and it expected to make a chaser, but he’ll need to improve his jumping as he took a few of these hurdles a bit low. So then, I’ve given 3 losers on the trot and lost 3pts in the process. This time last year I gave the 14/1 winner Holmwood Legend as my only selection and then gave a winning double on the Monday before Cheltenham; so let’s see if I can get us back in a confident mood today.

We have 3 jumps meetings at Sandown, Ayr, and Chepstow.
At Sandown, Paul Nicholls has his team in tip-top form with 3 winners from 7 runners yesterday. He has Aldertune (who is a previous blog selection) in the final race at Sandown, who is dropped in trip having not won in a long time at 2m6f+ and Ruby Walsh is back in the saddle. The race is full of old friends of mine: Sound Stage would win this easily if at his best now that he’s dropped to OR120, but he seems to have lost his way. You Know Yourself is another who would go well, if the going were good-to-soft, but it looks too quick for him. Inside Dealer couldn’t win this race last year off the same mark of OR125, and I think Cool Friend will need to be gifted the race to win it as she seems to be one-paced at the business end. I’m going to go out on a limb with COIS FARRAIG who is Paul Webber’s only runner today. He’s run at this meeting for the last 2 years and has only had 12 races in all. After winning a Newbury novice chase he was rated OR134 and was then highly tried (ran in the Scilly Isles won by Medermit, with Captain Chris in 2nd). He does not stay a yard further than 2m5f, and so it was not unexpected that he faded quickly LTO over 3-mile at Ascot from 4-out. He was 6/1 that day, and he’s 14/1 for this and I think he’s a good eachway wager in this 8-runner race.

At Ayr, Sammy Spiderman has only ever won at Ayr on soft/heavy going, and that’s what he has today. He didn’t win here LTO tho’ and he may find Mr WOODS too strong for him in the 3:25 there.
At Cheptsow, Jason Maguire has a nice book of rides and I especially like BUFFALO BOB in the 4:50. He’s won on heavy going and stays further than this trip and also being a prominent runner he will ensure a stamina test. Odds of 4/1 are available with a few “best odds guaranteed” bookies, but 9/2 with Stan James looks stand-out value.

As much as I like the look of COIS FARRAIG, if there is some pace on early in this race then he may struggle to get into contention especially as Aldertune stays 3-mile and will likely be up there “in-the-van” thru’out. So I’m not advising a wager on him, but would not put anyone off having a “fun” bet. For me, BUFFALO BOB looks the wager as he started the season on OR131 and has won off OR126, and he’s on OR120 today. He had no chance LTO over an inadequate trip, so 9/2 today looks great value.

Selection:
Cheptstow 4:50, BUFFALO BOB, 1pt win @ 9/2 (Stan James)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

2012 Cheltenham Festival Bulletin

The 436th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

It's here!
The 2012 Cheltenham Festival Bulletin has now been published and initial copies were sent out by email this evening to those who have made a £5 donation to the blog.
If you want a copy, you know what to do, and that's donate £5 using the donate button above. What you will receive is a 16-page, 9500 word document that looks at every race in the Festival, detailing important trends, potential antepost selections, in-running strategies, and provides 3 rock solid guides to every race to help you sort thru' the chaff and produce a shortlist from which (hopefully) you'll find the winners.

That's it for me for a few days. I've spent the best part of 3-weeks and over 50 hours writing and researching the bulletin and I need a break. So, I'm off to Cornwall for a long weekend and will be back on Monday. Don't worry, I'm taking my laptop with me, so if you want a copy of the bulletin send me a donation and I'll send you a copy.

All the best.

Super Saturday for Paul Nicholls

The 423rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Today we have what looks to be a cracking days racing over the jumps with top-class meetings at Ascot and Haydock, plus another at Wincanton.
At Ascot, I like the look of the mares hurdle at 2:05 as the market is made by the fav Kentford Grey Lady who looked very impressive when winning LTO. Ordinarily, I would go for the fav but the fact that VIOLIN DAVIS who was 3rd that day is returning for a rematch looks interesting. This race is quite likely to be a severe test of stamina with Kaffie likely to make the pace strong thru’out. I can’t have the Irish challenger Our Girl Salley as I reckon the going will not be soft enough for her, and she’s trying 3-mile for the first time. VIOLIN DAVIS at 11/2 (Ladbrokes and Paddy Power) looks a fair wager, as I’d be happy with 3/1.

The handicap hurdle at 2:35 was a race in which I was hoping to see BOBBY EWING return to the track. Look him up, his form suggests his OR139 hurdle rating is ludicrously low and I can see this horse winning a top hurdle handicap on his return. However, he misses this race and so I have to look elsewhere, and CICERON who won LTO looks the best value at 11/2. Alan King’s Smad Place looks over-rated at OR144 (I’d have him about 7lb less) and A Bridge Too Far has already been shown lacking at this step-up in trip wont help. Both Joseph Lister and Shoreacres want further than 2m3f, and I can’t really see Torpichen (also trained by Alan King) being involved off OR142, and Royal Charm is on a recovery mission in this. Going right-handed could well help Pateese show improved form, but again his mark of OR138 looks a tad high and the going is also possibly too lively for him. CICERON won LTO in a very fast time beating a well-handicapped rival into 2nd and has only been raised 7lb to OR136. Considering he won at Taunton off OR135 last February, this is well within his grasp and he should be less than 3/1 for this.

The Victor Chandler Chase revolves around Al Ferof who, if he’s as good as Paul Nicholls reckons, will win this. Last March, he won what looks to have been a very strong Supreme Novices Hurdle and if it comes to a test of speed after the final fence then he’ll take some beating. However, both Al Ferof and Finian’s Rainbow are up against half-a-dozen high class chasers and any flaws in their jumping ability at speed will be exposed. As such, I cannot have Finian’s Rainbow whose jumping has never been convincing and was fortunate to be 2nd in what looks to have been a sub-standard Arkle last March. SOMERSBY is the highest rated horse in the race by 4lbs and is game and consistent. He will either relish this drop in trip from the 3-mile of the King George (was well there till after 4-out) or he may find things happening too quickly. Wishful Thinking has never looked a natural 2-mile chaser. As for Gauvain, all his best form is usually in the autumn, and he was stuffed in this race last season. He has been made the Pricewise selection so the 8/1 has gone and he’s best-priced at 6/1 generally now. You cannot really take the chances of the other runners seriously as they are well below the standard required to win. SOMERSBY at 11/2 is worthy of a small wager and I’d be very happy if he could win, but I reckon he’ll be seen at his best in the Ryanair at the Festival. As such, I’m strongly tempted by the 100/30 on AL FEROF (William Hill).

Ascot’s card is tremendous and the 3:45 is another exciting race. I could easily name half the field as having realistic chances and with 15 going to post, so only 3 places available, it is too tight a heat; altho’ SA SUFFIT is a horse who looks well handicapped and if the going is softer than advertised he could go well. The 2-mile trip was too short for his LTO even so he was bang there at the finish, and before that he had no chance against Always Right at Kelso over 3-mile on 4th December. He may not have the class to win this but at 14/1 (so long as the going is soft) he is a solid eachway chance.

Unfortunately for Haydock who hold the Peter Marsh Chase, the going there is heavy, and I can see there being more than a few non-runners. I never like betting on heavy going so I’m giving the meeting a miss.

Wincanton has better going, and the class 3 chase at 2:10 could be an interesting opening for ALDERTUNE. Only 3 of the 13 runners are aged under 10yo, so they are all in the main well-exposed and holding no secrets from the handicapper. As such, I reckon the winner will come from one of the other 3 of ALDERTUNE, Zarrafakt and Diamond Brook. I think this 3m1f trip will be too much for Zarrafakt who is probably best at 2m6f. Diamond Brook looks one-paced at this sort of trip and he needs to show improvement. As for ALDERTUNE, he was well thought of as a hurdler by Nicholls and he really should have won more races (has come 2nd 6 times in 15 starts). His form has worked out well this season, especially his close 4th in the Southern National to Giles Cross. LTO he hated the heavy going, but he’s been well rested since then with a 7 week break, and he can improve enough to take this race at rewarding odds.

Selections:
Ascot 2:35, CICERON, 1pt win @ 11/2 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)
Ascot 3:10, AL FEROF, 1pt win @ 100/30 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)
These are my early wagers, tho’ depending on how the ground is, there could well be an additional wagers on both SA SUFFIT (14/1 with Paddy Power, BOG) and ALDERTUNE (12/1 with Corals).

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Thanks for the memories

The 397th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)

Another day with no firm selection yesterday, but readers cannot say they don’t get decent advice in the narrative.

SECRET EDGE absolutely hacked-up at Fontwell, as I thought he would. I don’t advise wagers at odds under 5/2 as (especially with jump racing) mishaps can happen even to the best horses and that “risk” factor has to be built-in to your wagers. At £40 a point (the stakes I use) I expect a return of £120 from a 3/1 winner, and that is the minimum return I demand. So, to obtain that from SECRET EDGE yesterday I would have had to wager £210 and that, for me, was too great a risk.

I also looked at the opener at Southwell on the all-weather as there had been a significant move on TAKAJAN in the betting from 7/1 to 11/4. As (in my opinion) his true odds were 5/1 he had been “over-egged” and as such, had gone from a wagering opportunity to a laying opportunity. For those who do not understand value, this race was a great example. With “true” odds at 5/1, those who obtained 7/1 were on at great value. If you have a wager on 12 horses at odds of 7/1 whose true odds are 5/1 then (providing you read the market well) you will win twice and lose ten times resulting in an overall profit (at 1pt per wager) of 4pts or 28.57%ROI. That is good business. But, when that “true” 5/1 chance shortens to 11/4, then it is a rock solid laying opportunity. Does that make sense?

Before I move on from yesterday, may I give a big thanks to G-Star Sports Tips who put me onto the 6/1 winner NANNA MAURA at Sedgefield. The Racing Post BF had NANNA MAURA as the 7/4 fav and, for some reason, several others were supported in the market allowing NANNA MAURA to drift to 6/1. Having looked at the form, NANNA MAURA was easily the most talented in the race, and also had the going in her favour; what’s more she was proven at the trip. No other horse met these basic criteria and the RP had it right – she should have been the 7/4 fav. Her Irish-based trainer JJ Lambe does not have the same reputation here in England as the likes of Gordon Elliot and others, but he’s no mug. And I can only think that office punters found the horses sent by Nicky Richards and Lucinda Russell more sexy.

I bought a Racing & Football Outlook yesterday and it’s not a bad read. One feature that I really like (so much so, that I do the same exercise myself) is their Top Of The Form page were they highlight races run when the form has really worked out well. Spotting such races quickly is invaluable for the punter and much–maligned REVE DE SIVOLA who was 5th to Galaxy Rock recently, is one that could soon be in the winners enclosure at decent odds. For instance, the class 5 novice chase at Kelso on 5th November has produce no less than 4 next-time-out winners (NTOW’s). There is no assessment of Irish races tho’ and at the Punchestown meeting of 28th October (and this meeting has produced 13 NTOW’s so far) the handicap hurdle won by Irish Soul has produced 5 NTOW’s – exceptional.

There are two jumps meetings today at Hexham and Leicester. The going at Hexham is heavy (probably very heavy having been under snow for most of yesterday) and I’m giving that meeting a wide berth. Heavy going and the restrictions on use of the whip mean that form (as we know it) goes out of the window. I’m sure others don’t see it that way, but I’m avoiding heavy going meetings until I know the jockeys and horses know how to act on it.

The meeting at Leicester brings back old memories as I won on the 40/1 winner Bubble Boy in the final race of (what is) today’s card in 2009. That was before I was blogging, but I wrote a write-up on the race with Bubble Boy as the selection under my moniker of Wayward Lad on the Betfair forum. That was quite a day as, having referred to my notebook entries for the day, I had win wagers on 6 horses that day and 5 of them won (the loser being Grand Slam Hero in the same race as Bubble Boy, he was 3rd). It was just after I joined twitter and @Mulldog who was one of my first followers (and is still a presence on twitter) could verify that 40/1 winner.

There is no selection today, as the racing doesn’t provide any value.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

There is always tomorrow

The 397th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)

No firm selection yesterday, but the one race I focussed on resulted in me spotting the winner in INVICTUS who romped away with the race under an enterprising ride from Robert Thornton. He showed excellent tactical speed and jumped like a stag so, hoping the handicapper isn’t too unkind, he can follow-up.

One I missed from the weekend (and omitted to mention yesterday) was WEST END ROCKER who won the Becher Chase at Aintree on Saturday. He was one of my 3 selections for the National on the day, and he was going well early-on till brought-down at Bechers 1st time round. He was beaten by the heavy going in the National Trial at Haydock (won by Silver By Nature) and had showed himself to be progressive before that. He needed a run last season, and he has done again this. Provided he isn’t hammered by the handicapper (ie raised to OR146+) he should remain competitive NTO.

Occasionally, something catches my eye and makes me look back at previous blogs. Last night I read the Official Handicappers blog on the useful BHA website (see adjacent link) and his assessment of the win of ETON RIFLES in a Listed race on the flat over 6-furlongs at Fontainebleu in France on 24th Nov. He (the Official Handicapper) reckoned it was his best performance of the season and rated him OR111. I typed the name ETON RIFLES into my blog search facility and came up with my assessment of his run last April when 5th in the Lincoln handicap “…trying the mile trip for only the 2nd time, the way (he) stayed-on in this highly competitive race while on the “wrong” side of the track suggests that (he) could be well-handicapped if racing in the right conditions”. ETON RIFLES was rated OR94 then. DUBAI HILLS – also mentioned on that blog in April – looks well placed on OR92 for a return to the AW this winter.

Today, we have a couple of jumps meetings at Sedgefield and Fontwell.

If SECRET EDGE cannot win the opening novice hurdle at Fontwell then there is something wrong, but then he’s quoted at odds of 4/7 this morning. There are some other “interesting” races at Fontwell but they are low grade affairs and with the going there being soft it’s a case of which horse can grind out an sustained effort will win.

The Sedgefield meeting is similar to Fontwell, low-grade racing with little to inspire. As such, I’ll leave well alone. Sometimes the best course of action is to keep your money in your wallet as there is always tomorrow.

I’m not a great fan of the All-Weather racing, but in the opener at noon there has been a significant market move on TAKAJAN from 7/1 in to 11/4 as I write. A couple of other bloggers (James Boyle and Longshot Betting – both have links adjacent) have advised wagers on him at 7/1, but clearly the value has gone now. He’s not in the best of stalls, drawn 7 of the 14 runners, and others – such as Suddenly Susan (drawn 2), Wandering Lad (3), Greenhead High (5), and Prince Of Vasa (6) will make not make it easy for TAKAJAN to dominate the race as he will need to, to win. As such, I would be inclined to place-lay him at 1.80 as he’s the sort that’ll likely win or flop. There is no value at 11/4 in him winning (as his “true” win odds are about 5/1), but there is no way he is odds-on to be placed in this race, and I’d price him at more like 2.50 in the place-only market. Therefore, in my opinion, he is a place-lay at 1.80.

There is no selection today.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Venetia Williams back on form

The 393rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)

A new month and the Jumps Season is developing nicely with the novice chasers looking a bit above those we saw in the UK last season. There is “talk” that last season’s novices are a poor bunch, but you have to remember that 2 of the 3 novice championships at the Cheltenham Festival were won by Irish horses (Boston’s Angel and Noble Prince) and possibly the best Irish novice chaser of last season – Quito De La Roque – missed Cheltenham and went to Aintree and Punchestown and won both of the graded novice chases there, and then came out and beat Sizing Europe at Down Royal early last month. In my opinion, today’s top “English” chasers are not within a stone of the best (Denman and Kauto Star) of recent times and they are vulnerable. This month should see the first cracks appear and I can see the arrogance of some English writers turning (hopefully) to humility and respect.

No selections yesterday, altho’ I did highlight David Pipe’s only runner of the day POOLE MASTER who was 5/2 until 10 mins before the off, and won at an SP of 11/8.

Also of interest was that Venetia Williams found the winners enclosure with 2 of her 4 runners (at SP’s of 14/1 and 4/1) and her stable – after its customary slow start – is now firing on all cylinders and her runners must be respected, whatever the odds. Venetia has another 4 runners out today.

This afternoon’s meeting at Leicester is all hurdles, and I’m giving that one a miss.

At Wincanton, Paul Nicholls has only one runner out today – Sang Bleu in the 1:40. My only “alert list” horse also runs in this race, Duke Of Lucca, and he may be the value. Sang Bleu was not a good jumper when last seen over fences and, along with Habbie Simpson, has something to prove today. DUKE OF LUCCA has shown he can jump a fence and has been unlucky to meet a couple of good novices in his 2 races this autumn. He should be the fav, and the 2/1 fav at that; as such, at 11/4 (Vic Chandler and others) he is the value especially as he has the going and trip in his favour.

The next race on the card at 2:10 looks a tough one to sort out the winner in. Just The Job could run away with this again as he did LTO, but I cannot see that happening. I can’t see Magot De Grugy repeating his LTO win as he’s a heavy ground horse, and good-to-soft is too slow for Upham Atom. This trip is too far for Nudge And Nurdle, and that leaves Tarquinius and Master Cobbler. If he’s fit, Tarquinius is thrown-in here, but I reckon MASTER COBBLER could be the one to build on his run LTO as this trip could be his best.

The race won by Wyke Hill at Chepstow on 22nd October has thrown-up 4 x NTOW’s (next time out winners); Wyke Hill won again, That’lldoboy has won twice, Wester Ros has won, and so has ROSSBRIN who runs today at Market Rasen in the 2:25. Unfortunately, every man and his dog seems to have spotted this formline and he’s 7/2 across the board. He may have been raised 13lb for his LTO win, but he looks to have plenty of stamina and he can jump – and if he were with a top stable he’d be 7/4 for this. Night In Milan looks the one most likely to try and give him a race.

I will probably regret this but I’m not going to put up a selection today. I will have a small place-only wager to cover a larger win wager on MASTER COBBLER, and if there is a market move for either Henderson’s or McCain’s enties in the Market Rasen 2:25 - and I can get 4/1 or longer on ROSSBRIN - (hopefully, I’ll get 9/2) then I’ll have a wager on him.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

The money is going down today!

The 389th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)

No selections for the blog yesterday, altho’ I put in a good word for KENTFORD GREY LADY and she ran out a comfortable winner at 15/8. She could be worth noting, as her dam won the Mares’ novices hurdle final (listed race) over 2m5f in 2004, and was rated OR112. Also, her dam’s half-bro was 4th in the Racing Post Chase and was rated OR135 as a chaser – so there is plenty of talent in the dam-side.
GRANDS CRUS had no problems in his novice chase and remains on-course for a Festival appearance – but which race?
Another mentioned on the blog was THE COCKNEY MACKEM and he fell mid-race with a very “novice” jump (took off too early and landed on the fence). As such, he should stay on OR122 and is – in my opinion – on a lenient mark.
The handicap chace that I looked at was won by the 5yo and bottom-weight THAT’LLDOBOY, trained by Paul Nicholls. This one is clearly on the upgrade still, but the opposition fell away rapidly over the final fences (Buffalo Bob is well-off his best form) so let’s hope the handicapper does not go overboard on this effort.

There are 3 jumps meetings today, but I will only concern myself with that at Newbury as Doncaster and Musselburgh don’t have wagering opportunities (that’s me being polite!). That said, the 2:35 at Doncaster looks to have some potential (class 3 chase over 2m3f), but good-to-firm going at this time of year scares me a bit. Also, Tarvini (2:00, 3-mile h’cap hurdle) remains well handicapped on old form (has won off OR120, and runs off OR110 today with a 10lb claimer riding).

Newbury has what looks to be an ordinary meeting for the eve of the Hennessey Gold Cup, but the novice chase at 1:35 will be great to watch. Will Bobs Worth take to fences? Can Cue Card jump a fence at speed? Has Spirit River “grown” since last season when a novice chasing flop? Me, I will be having a sneaky couple of quid on MAD MOOSE at 20/1 as he’s a rock-solid OR137 chaser having 6 chase runs (won 2, placed in 3) under his belt and not fallen.
I’ll give the novice h’cap chase a miss and look at the 2:45, the 3-mile h’cap hurdle (class 3). My alert list notes tell me Caddie Master has not stopped improving, but on good-to-soft or worse he’s 0 from 4, but on good going or quicker he’s 3 from 5. OK, he was only btn a short-head on soft going LTO, but the race was not run in a fast time – as such, I think he discounts that form and that of Frontier Dancer. Paul Nicholls 1st-string Like Minded has not shaped like a OR130 horse, so I think he’s got too much on his plate. Sivola De Sivola did not stay 2m5f LTO, so 3-mile has to be a question-mark for him. Artic Court is Jim Goldie’s first runner here, and he’s never had a winner south of Bangor-on-Dee, so that has to be a negative. I don’t think Carribs Leap is up to this level. The Shy Man runs best at this time of year and won well LTO, so he could well be involved but I can’t see him winning. Kasbadali is thought to go best right-handed and is another with stamina to prove. One I like the look of is the Paul Nicholls 2nd-string, PRINCE TOM with 7lb claimer Harry Derham riding. He ran a couple of great races last season, is proven to stay this trip and ran well in a top handicap LTO in a fast time. At 12/1 he looks a value wager, but this is such a competitive race I’m going to bottle-out again and pass on this one.

In the 3:15, last year’s winner AIGLE D’OR has only had this race as his target since running at the Galway Festival. Trainer Nicky Henderson has an awful record in Ireland (why does he bother going?) so I can ignore that run and the earlier one at Punchestown. His Festival run was not as bad as his placing suggests as he did not cope well with the large field of 20 runners. But this horse (2nd btn a head in the Greatwood Hurdle of 2008 with 11st 5lb) has a touch of class about him. As such, I reckon he will beat Rileyev. It is a tough induction for Hold Fast so odds about him of 4/1 are no value at all. Oh Crick could be a contender if recapturing his best form of 2-years ago off OR139 (was rated OR160 after a 5th in QMCC of 2010), but that’s unlikely. AIGLE D’OR is 9/4 with several bookies, and I reckon he should be more like 6/4 as he will be well prepared for this race. He is going to be a 2pts win wager (see my adjacent page with total record of 2pts win wagers).

Selection:
Newbury 3:15, AIGLE D’OR, 2pts win @ 9/4 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)

Also, take a look at a previous blog page for 7th November - are you on SARANDO at 40/1 for the Hennessey tomorrow?

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Grands Crus to make another step towards the Arkle

The 388th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)

No selections for the blog yesterday as I managed to persuade myself that recommending a wager on MONSIEUR JORDAIN was not a good idea despite him being an improving 5yo chaser who was guaranteed to stay the 2m 6f &110 yard trip. He went and won at 10/1 benefiting from the last fence fall of the favourite Dusky Bob; but that one was probably tiring anyway (the reason for the fall?) and may not held onto the lead anyhow. At least I know I’m on the right track reading the form-lines as I read that race near perfect. MONSIEUR JORDAIN was only 7/1 in the morning when I posted my blog, which was a big reason why he wasn’t a selection. I managed to obtain 12.50 on Betfair just before the off, which is equivalent to 11/1, and I traded out my stake at 3.10.

We have 3 jumps cards at Newbury, Taunton and Uttoxeter today, so let’s see what’s in store.
At Newbury, I’m looking to oppose the fav in the opener with Emma Lavelle’s KENTFORD GREY LADY as those 2 that beat here LTO are above average, and this is a much easier task. Next-up, the novice chase at 1:00 has a Henderson chasing debutant in Celtus and that should allow one from my alert list THE COCKNEY MACKEM to go off at a bit of value. He easily has the best chasing form in this race and should be odds-on; instead, we could get 9/4. Edgardo Sol who beat him a nose LTO has won again since and is rated OR134, and THE COCKNEY MACKEM is on a par with that. At 1:35, the novice h’cap hurdle over 2m5f has been won by some decent horses in recent years and I have PROMISED WINGS on my alert list after he lost LTO by demolishing the final hurdle. That said, I’m not sure an extra furlong will be to his good, and the fav Sentimental Journey could prove hard to beat in what looks a competitive race.
GRANDS CRUS reappears in the 2:10 and it is most unlikely that he won’t win this, tho’ Viking Blond will be no pushover. It’s hard to know what to make of Sonofvic until he jumps a fence in public.
Buffalo Bob won the 2:45 last year, but his trainer Kim Bailey has his stable in poor form and he ran a stinker LTO (with my money on and as a selection for the blog). Current fav Zarrafakt hacked-up on his seasonal debut last season but then flopped in this and again in the Spring. I don’t think he can be relied upon, and neither can Rackham Lerouge. That’lldoboy was the main beneficiary of tardy jumping by his rivals LTO and that form could be unreliable. Leading Contender does not do well in fields of more than 6 runners, and so that brings me to PIRAYA. He stays this trip, will appreciate the going and he has run well at this meeting for the past 2 seasons (he was 3rd over 2m4f off OR142 here last year). He ran well on his seasonal debut last week, and David Pipe is likely to have aimed him at the race so he should have come on for that run. It looks a tough ask with 11st 12lb, but no recent winner has carried less than 11st 5lb so he’s got trends on his side.
Nothing takes my eye at Taunton, and at Uttoxeter I want to see CROSS KENNON win the beginners chase but the rest of the card leaves me cold.

Do I have a selection today? After yesterday, I should go with my conviction and have a punt on PIRAYA, but with only 1 win from 20 starts in the UK he would not be a confident selection.

As such, no recommended wagers today.

Lastly, a recommendation to readers of the blog to visit G-Star Sports Tips (http://gstarfrankels.blogspot.com) who gave the following winners from yesterday: Hazy Tom, Best Lover, Always Bold, Restaurateur and Bailadeira - that’s 5 winners from 7 selections. What’s more, they are not just names on a blank page, each selection has some narrative as to why it has been chosen.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Is the 'swinger' value?

The 387th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)

No selections for the blog yesterday, but I was interested in the result of the 3-mile h’cap chase at Lingfield. This turned out to be a cracker of a race with 7 or 8 still in the hunt at the 4th last fence, after which Felix de Giles sent Wide Receiver, the 100/30 fav, on into a clear lead. They came to grief at the 3rd last fence when toppling over on landing. It’s debateable whether Wide Receiver would have won but I reckon he would as he’s won over 3m3f at Fontwell, so he wasn’t lacking stamina over this 3-mile trip. The race was won by chasing debutant Monbeg Dude, who travelled very well in-behind the leaders and he looks good to follow-up as with a winning margin of just a head over Goring One, the handicapper cannot be too harsh. Any stamina doubts about Goring One were dispelled and, on reflection, I’m putting all 3 named horses onto my alert list. I was also interested to learn that the Tote “swinger” for 2nd & 3rd paid £14.60 – I would not have selected Monbeg Dude going into yesterday’s race, but Goring One and Pete The Feat were both on my radar.

Racing today looks uninteresting, and I’m only taken by the 3:05 at Wetherby, a class 4 h’cap chase over 2m 6f & 110 yards. The 5yo MONSIEUR JOURDAIN was beaten on the run-in LTO by Lockstown, who needs every yard of 3-miles (and more), but he looked like winning jumping the last fence and continued to pull-away from the fav (proven stayer Coppers Gold). Today’s fav Dusky Bob has never won from 4 attempts beyond 2m4f & 110 yards, so he may find stamina an issue today even tho’ he should handle the good-to-soft going. I don’t know what to make of Quel Ballistic, but he looks harshly treated on OR107. Banoge is a one-paced plodder who wants the going hock-deep in mud. Quel Bruere will stay 3-mile and should guarantee a fair pace, but again looks one-paced at the business end. AP McCoy returns to the saddle on I’m A Decider and altho’ his last 3 wins have been on good-to-firm and he flopped LTO when running on heavy, he has won on soft going and shown form on good-to-soft before now, and he should not be 12/1 for this. Allenard’s 3rd to Wide Receiver (see remarks above) could be good enough to see him in contention as the drop in trip LTO wasn’t in his favour, and he’s another who should not be 12/1 for this. Dawn Ride loves Wetherby, but his jumping is poor in fields larger than 6 runners and he cannot be advised. Dystonia’s Revenge has no chance. The race should be between Quel Bruere, Monsieur Jourdain, I’m A Decider and Allenard (should the fav, Dusky Bob, not stay the trip) and I cannot split them, so I will probably play the “place-only” markets on these.

As such, no recommended wagers today.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

If you want value, this is where to come

The 385th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

We start the week on a high after a great winner on Saturday from the only selection, with I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES romping home at 8/1. Unfortunately, no donations were received which was disappointing as (according to Statcounter) the blog had 111 unique visitors on Saturday, of which 52 were returning visitors.
With 54 visitors returning to this blog more than 6 times in the past week, and another 46 who have returned between 1 and 5 times, I am sure those that do return time and time again do so because they get some value from the blog.
I have updated my stats page and, since 1st November 2010, I have advised 187 wagers on this blog, and they have returned a total profit of 28.5525pts from 211pts staked; that's a Return on Investment of 13.53%.
If you visit the well-established site Tip Exchange (see adjacent link) which has been operating since 2004; from over 3700 registered “tipsters” only 17 (yes, just seventeen) of those who “back” horses (not layers) and who have placed more than 50 selections with their last selection being in the past 30-days, have a better ROI than 13.53%. Adjust the filter to more than 100 selections (I have advised 187 on this blog) and only 8 registered tipsters beat my ROI, and they ALL charge between £25 to £60 a month.

There is an interesting blog written by Steeplechasing (http://steeplechasing.wordpress.com) which is well worth a visit. It is written by Joe McNally and he’s written a page on possible value for the Gold Cup next March. I won’t steal his thunder, but it will come as no surprise to regular readers of this blog that I am pretty much in agreement with him as to where the next Gold Cup winner is coming from. Long Run should improve a few pounds with better jumping and so he is clearly the best from this side of the Irish Sea, but believe me when I say “the Irish are coming!”

There are 3 meetings today, so plenty to choose from. There are a lot of small fields which could be due to it being a Monday.
I cannot see a worthwhile wager at Ffos Las.
At Kempton, the 1st-4 races are headed by short-priced fav’s and they are not my cup’o’tea as I can’t see anything to oppose them with. An old friend in PICKAMUS runs in the 3:10 and he has going and trip in his favour, and he’s even won going right-handed. Seeing-as he does not stay a yard more than 2m5f it seems odd that his only chase race at a suitable trip last season was in a Grade 3 H’cap Chase in which he was almost certainly outclassed (he fell mid-race). It was unfortunate that he ran over 22f LTO off his last winning mark of OR130 as, if he’d stayed that trip, he would’ve won. Henry Daly has managed to get Barry Geraghty in the saddle, but I feel that won’t be enough to beat the fav MIDNIGHT APPEAL. This full-bro’ to My Petra is going the right way and looks leniently treated on OR127 considering he’s won 4 of his 5 chases and LTO met a decent rival in Roudoudou Ville. He was 2nd that day in a fast time at Sandown, and at 9/4 this proven jumper looks the value in the race. Like his other full bro’ Lake Legend, MIDNIGHT APPEAL needs a bit of rousting along and stays 2m4f+. This is Alan King’s only runner today and he’s worth a wager tho’, given his style of running, it could be worth having some money on in-running at perhaps 5/1 (6.00) as I reckon he may well trade a lot higher than his current odds of 3.25 – it’s a thought.
I cannot see anything at Ludlow either, so all-in-all for all the racing on offer, it is a disappointing looking day.

Selection:
Kempton 3:10, MIDNIGHT APPEAL, 1pt win at 9/4 (Victor Chandler, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup winner 2014 is...

The 381st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Sometimes, racehorses love to make fools of you and yesterday’s selection ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES has had the last of my money. I took 6.20 (5/1) on Betfair before the off, expecting him to go off like a scalded cat; instead, he ran like the last place he wanted to be was at the races. After a circuit, jockey Tom Cannon showed why he has a bright future in the saddle by conjuring up an effort from the horse and he (briefly) looked like making a race of it. I took the opportunity to lay-off my stake at 8.00 then and it was a wise decision.

We have a couple of jumps meetings at Warwick and Hexham, and again it looks uninspiring fare.
There is a class 5 chase at Warwick at 3:30, and I would not be wanting to take less than 5/2 about Ukranian Star, the current fav. He’s not shown much form when he’s carried more than 11st 3lb and he has 11:12 today. He does have the best form profile in the race, but I’d want 11/4 or longer.

The opening novice chase looks interesting at Hexham, and I think here the presence of heavy going in places on the chase course could prove influential on results. Heavy/soft going will rule out Rich Lord and Lightening Rod and I’m not sure Chester Lad will appreciate it on his chase debut, and I’ve learned he’s a non-runner.Pegasus Prince is also a chasing debutant, tho’ he should handle the going. That leaves the fav Pena Dorada and Signalman. All the form shown by the 4yo Pena Dorada has been on good going (that’s both on the flat and over the jumps). He is clearly capable as a chaser tho’. SIGNALMAN was a decent enough hurdler with form on soft/heavy before injury kept him off the track for nearly 2 years till March earlier this year. He ran well in a couple of novice chases in the Spring and he had no chance trying to out-pace Notus De La Tour at Carlisle last month, and paid for that effort finishing last of 6. He will strip fitter today and at 8/1 with William Hill, he is a fair wager.

In the 3:10, another novice h’cap chase, King Penda pulled-up LTO with a burst blood vessel. Before that, he won a race whose form has worked out well. He would be a selection for me in this race at odds of 12/1 were is not for the going, but he’s not shown any form when “soft” is in the going description.

An interesting column by one of my favourite writers Nick Mordin, in today’s Weekender. He writes how you should pay attention to, and make note of, novice hurdlers that achieve ratings of over 125 in October & November. I’ve said before and will say it again; those who rate races under-value Irish form and I reckon the form is under-valued by about 10lb. One horse he names is already on my alert list – SWORD OF DESTINY. The 5yo, born on the 1st Jan 2006, is in training with Noel Meade and if I could have an antepost wager on the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup and someone would give me 100/1 then I’d have £25 on him. This horse looks immense and born to be a staying chaser, yet he’s quick enough over hurdles to win a grade 3 very easily. Put it this way, he reminds me of Denman, only he’s a grey version. With good fortune, he will prove to be a class act in the future over jumps.

Looking ahead to the weekend, the Betfair Chase looks a decent betting medium if you want to oppose Long Run – and I do. He’s been flattered by a couple of defeats of a quickly deteriorating Kauto Star, and I reckon Denman ran 15lb off his best in the Gold Cup last March. I think he’ll be not far off his best on Saturday but he’ll need to be to beat both Weird Al and Diamond Harry. With fitness on his side, I think WEIRD AL is a huge value wager at 7/1 and he looked in command from a long way out when winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby LTO; and he’s my idea of the winner. I feel the going could be on the quick side for Diamond Harry, as he needs the word “soft” in the going description.

Selection:
Hexham 1:10, SIGNALMAN, 1pt win @ 8/1 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Looking for a winner at Folkestone

The 380th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday, altho’ if you read the blog you will have noted that I wrote that Emma Lavelle has a good record at Plumpton – and she took the opener with the 11/1 winner Gleann Eagas. Lavelle has now recorded 8 winners from her last 19 runners.
Flaming George only just failed (by a neck) to win for Paul Nicholls, and this race looks decent form. On a more galloping track he could be capable of running to a level of 125+.
Master Milan looked like continuing Jonjo O’Neill's awful November until pure class got him home – his hurdling was atrocious. And trainer of the moment, David Pipe, came away with a brace of winners from 4 sent to Plumpton. Take note of WINGS OF ICARUS – he’s a half-brother to top class chaser QUITO DE LA ROQUE and World Hurdle 3rd, KAZAL. He should find 2m5f+ his best trip in time.
AP McCoy was at Leicester, and had 3 winners from 4 rides – none of them supplied by his retaining trainer, Jonjo O’Neill.

There are two meetings today at Fakenham and Folkestone, and they are both poor quality. It could well be a day for following the money. At Folkestone, one from last season’s alert list runs in ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES. Now, this horse has led me a merry dance these past 12 months, running 14 times since 19th Sept ’10 and winning 4 times at odds of 5/2, 13/2, 8/1 and 25/1 – and I did not have a wager on him when he won, but consistently followed him when he lost! Today, he is 9/2 with Paddy Power in what looks on paper to be a 2-horse race (only 5 go to post) as Current Climate makes his chase debut, and both Baroque and Romney Marsh are very poor chasers. With main rival Run To Fly making the long trip from South Wales for Peter Bowen, he is a 4/5 odds-on fav. Both are front-runners, both will stay this trip. What swings me towards ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES is that he’s won a chase off a 7lb higher rating, and he’s won on today’s going (good-to-firm). Also, claimer Tom Cannon takes off 5lb and he is worth every ounce. He’s won 7 chases from 21 rides for Chris Gordon (trainer of ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES) this season.

Selection:
Folkestone 3:30, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 1pt win @ 9/2 (Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

If only BIG BUCKS could jump a fence

The 379th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday, altho’ perhaps I should have had a nibble as Viva Colonia managed to sneak 5th in the Greatwood and I wrote yesterday that he could sneak a place (Betfred and Tote were 50/1 and paid on 5 places). It was another tremendous ride from Harry Derham to win on Brampour, as he found the cleanest line round the tight home turn (far too tight a home bend in my opinion) to run out a clear winner.
Stablemate Sanctuaire took a wider line and may have finished closer but for being knocked sideways by the violent swerve from Moondice just before the final flight. The tight bend meant most in the leading group moved onto the stands rail and room there was tight (hence Brampour having the “cleanest” run to the line having stuck to the far side). I would take both Moondice and Sanctuaire from this race as they both look to be on winning ratings.
Al Ferof won the opening novice chase very easily and, in hindsight, odd-on at 5/6 was value punt as he probably should’ve started a lot shorter.
This time last year, I jumped on Gauvain after he won the same race last season, but I’ll not make the same mistake again. He’s peaked for the season.
At Fontwell, The Southern National went to Giles Cross who loves these long-distance chases having run 2nd in both the Welsh National and Eider chases last season. Once he led at 3-out, he was never going to be passed and he will probably go for the Welsh National again. Fortification was beaten by the 15lb hike for his previous win; and Rapid Increase ran out of stamina from 2-out. In 2nd was REY NACARADO, and this 6yo half-brother to Florida Pearl could be a huge improver this season.

There are two meetings today at Plumpton and Leicester.
The 4-runner novice chase at Plumpton (1:30) is a cracker of a race. The bookies are taking no chances with Notus De La Tour, but the chasing debutant KIND OF EASY a half-brother to the OR156 Glencove Marina could upset the applecart. Emma Lavelle has a very good record at Plumpton.
In the 2:30, FLAMING GEORGE has his 1st run for Paul Nicholls (his owners have moved this horse about a bit) and it should be a winning run. He jumps, and gets this trip; also he will appreciate the going.
AP McCoy rides at Leicester, and it is worth noting that of the 11 winners he’s ridden in November, only 1 has been supplied by his retaining trainer Jonjo O’Neill from 12 rides. In fact, that winner (Galaxy Rock) was the only winner – so far – O’Neill has had in November from 48 runners.
I cannot see a worthwhile wager at Leicester, so it looks like a blank day on the selection front.

Lastly, David Pipe is speculating that his crack novice chaser GRANDS CRUS may be entered in Saturdays Betfair Chase to meet the current holder of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Long Run. It may be a bit quick for the horse to meet such seasoned top campaigners but, if he’s good enough, then he should be in the race. In my opinion, there is not much between the top chasers Long Run, Diamond Harry, Weird Al, and even Midnight Chase is not out of it. If only BIG BUCKS could jump a fence, we’d see a shake-up in the Gold Cup market then!

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Gordon! Don't be gullible.

The 364th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday – however, perhaps I should have had a wager given the results. I said I liked TATANIANO at Chepstow, but thought that his odds would be too short to represent value – and he had an SP of 5/2, incredible! Honest, I thought he’d start at 5/4 for this race and altho’ 9/4 was available when I wrote the blog yesterday I didn’t think readers would be able to get more than a “tenner” on him (if that) at those odds. Just goes to show that you have to keep your targets fixed during the day and step-in when the odds suggest that there is value. Remember, you don’t have to strike a bet, discretion lies with you.

The big story of the day was MASTER MINDED running well below form at Aintree. I did write on Friday that Master Minded was a bit of a character sometimes, and he certainly was not in the mood yesterday. Full marks tho’, go to Peter Bowen and connections of PURE FAITH who pushed eventual winner Albertas Run all the way to the final fence where he made a mistake which put paid to his chances – he still took 2nd place and £10,685 in prize-money. He is likely to be seen out at Aintree again today in a novice chase.

At Doncaster, CAMELOT trained in Ireland by AP O’Brien, took the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy and now heads the2012 Derby betting market at odds of 3/1 (which are bonkers). He showed a tremendous turn-of-foot to win this and is clearly an exceptional horse.

There is a very interesting h’cap chase at Wincanton at 2:50 over 3m3f. Last years winner Gullible Gordon returns and he is sure to be fit for this being sent here by Paul Nicholls. He carried 11st 8lb to win this last year, leading all-the-way. He has top-weight which is just another 4lb and he is the one to beat. Ballycarney does not look like he’ll stay much beyond 3-mile in a strong run race. Ballyvesey was 2nd in this race last year and meets Gullible Gordon on the same terms so its hard to see him reversing the places. Cullahill is another doubtful stayer beyond 3-mile, and whereas Templer will stay the trip, he struggles above OR128. Ethiopia will run his usual good race, but I feel the handicapper has him now, as is Frosted Grape. Of the others, Gone To Lunch needs to show he’s not “gone” at the game; Fortification is the 1st runner for trainer Kieran Burke and if he’s fit he could go very well off OR115 given he won a Class 2 chase off OR123 at Kempton in Dec 2009. As for Intac, this trip is a step into the unknown. Lastly, we have Drybrook Bedouin who is a horse I like as he stays all day long, but he’s up 11lb for a win last April and that’s tough. On reflection GULLIBLE GORDON at 6/1 (Ladbrokes) looks good value to repeat his win in the race of last season. The only doubt I have is the 7lb claimer who rides, David Pritchard, but that’s why GULLIBLE GORDON is 6/1 and not 7/2 fav.

Selection
Wincanton 2:50, GULLIBLE GORDON, 1pt win at 6/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Shares available in CHILWORTH LASS

The 360th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday with CAPTAIN DASH being a non-runner.

With horseracing being poor yesterday, I took a look at the Trainers Stats for Jump Racing over the past 4 years to see if I could find any interesting pointers. This is a “work in progress” and something that I will add to “as & when” - so, don’t think this is the last of the trainer-form blogs. I will not be looking at the likes of Nicholls, Henderson etc as the horses from those stables are well researched anyway. What I’m looking for are trainers who regularly have 20+ winners during the winter who have greater than expected strike-rates with either hurdlers, or chasers, or before or after Xmas and the like.

David Arbuthnot
He does not have many horses in the stable (just 19 in 2010-11) but he had a 30% strike-rate for the season. Last season, he did particularly well with his hurdlers but that was unusual as he is consistently finding winners with his chasers. In the past 4 seasons he’s had 21 winners from 74 chases (28%) and considering not one was a 1st-time-out (FTO) winner (0 from 7) he’s a man to note, especially in chase races of class 3 or lower.

Kim Bailey
Currently undergoing a resurgence since moving to Thorndale Farm in Sept 2006. Many won’t know that Kim Bailey has won all of the “Big-3” races; the Grand National (1990: Mr Frisk), the Gold Cup (1995: Master Oats) and the Champion Hurdle (1995: Alderbrook). Bailey had his best season in years in 2010-11, but he seems particularly adept at placing his chasers; 14 wins from 59 chase runs and 6 of his 12 chasers won FTO. He should be especially noted when he sends one for a class 3 chase (or lower) at trips of 2m4f or longer (11 wins from 49 runs; +£41.58 to £1).

Next, a plug for the White Diamond Racing Partnership of which I am a member. This was formed to own and race the 3yo juvenile hurdler CHILWORTH LASS who is in training with Sheena West on the South Downs just outside Brighton. Sheena has been firing in the winners this autumn including a hat-trick with ALFRAAMSEY another 3yo hurdler that (like Chilworth Lass) was bought out of the Mick Channon yard. The vibes are good about Chilworth Lass and her debut over hurdles is anticipated to be in November. There are still a couple of shares left in the syndicate so if you are interested please contact whitediamondracing@gmail.com and Tom Castle or Stefan Fellows will sort out the details. I’ve a good feeling about this horse as she is tenacious and game and reminds me of Katchit (oh, were she to prove as good!).

A couple of jump meetings today, but both Fontwell and Worcester are suffering from good-to-firm ground. Racing at Fontwell looks uncompetitive although one from my private alert list – TARVINI – looks like he’s recapturing form of old and he could be an eachway wager in the hurdle at 4:30. So, the focus is on Worcester.

Paul Nicholls sends ALDERTUNE for the 3:15 which is a novice chase and while the Charlie Longsdon runner Vincitore must be respected, Nicholls thinks a lot of Aldertune and, in coming here, he must be considered one of his better novice chasers. Unfortunately, current odds of 11/10 (I was hoping for 9/4+) are too short and not value.

Charlie Longsdon sends one off my private alert list to Worcester – RESTEZEN D’ARMOR for the 4:20. Longsdon won this race last year with Sir Ian and, by comparison, the two horses are complete opposites – Sir Ian being a bold front-runner and Restezen D’Armor a hold-up horse; so-much-so that sometimes it looks like he’s given up! Another interesting one in the race is Rate Of Knots who looks extremely well handicapped on OR116. The doubt about him is the ground as he’s looked best suited by soft or worse, so why he’s running here today is debateable (have just learned he’s a non-runner). King Ozzy will no-doubt help make the pace and trainer Lawney Hill is 3 from 7 here with chasers and that makes his odds of 9/2 (Betfred) fair for this 6-runner race. It is hard to see RESTEZEN D’ARMOR being beaten now, but odds of 2/1 are not value (I’m wanting 5/2+).

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Decent jumping action at Huntingdon

The 352nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday.

There is just the one jumps meeting today at Huntingdon, and it's an interesting one too, and not just as it's the first jumps meeting using the new "whip" rules. The opening race is a brain teaser as both Phil Hobbs - Serious Choice - and Ferdy Murphy - Capricornus - have good strikerates at the Cambridgeshire track. Cumbrian trainer Nicky Richards usually does not travel well with horses sent far from home base, but he's won 2 from 6 here (both were chases) and he has the 3/1 fav Parc Des Princes. Those odds look fair about the fav and he would be the one I would be on for small money.

There has been a bit of money for Sambelucky probably on-account of trainer Keith Reveley having a good strike-rate here. However, I prefer WALLS WAY who was beaten by a good one LTO. Not a horse to take a short price on, odds of 7/2 are fair.

The 2m4f & 110yards trip is a step into the unknown for all the novice hurdlers in the 3:20. Of the field, I made a note of TROVARE when he won LTO and he should stay this trip.

When I woke this morning, I was going to oppose SPOCK in the 3:50 as I thought, being from the Paul Nicholls stable, he's be 7/4 or shorter. However, he is 3/1 with Vic Chandler and you cannot really oppose a chaser from the Nicholls stable in October. It is debateable whether Ostland can give him 14lbs. Firm Order races off his hurdle rating of OR122 yet this is his chase debut. Points Of View should stay 3-mile and he looked progressive earlier this summer (was outclassed LTO). For me, it is Peter Bowen's only runner NATURAL ACTION who fell LTO at the final fence. Bowen makes the long 241 mile trip here for this and the trip and going should suit this one. Odds of 11/2 available generally, look more than fair.

Not many horses stay 3-mile plus and so races like the 4:20 over 3m2f can sometime present easy pickings. This race tho' looks too tough to call and should fall to one of the market leaders of Lost Glory, Only Witness or Winter Alchemy. Given the odds, Winter Alchemy at 13/2 (Vic Chandler and Stan James) looks the most value.

Nothing jumps out at me as a firm selection (I wrote a similar statement last week, and had 2 winners from 2 named horses at 14/1 and 9/2). Will I rue those words?

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Who fills the gap at Carlisle today?

The 350th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday.

The one horse I mentioned – GOLAN GUY – was running in Ireland at Tramore for AJ Martin with Ruby Walsh in the saddle. He started off a solid fav at 7/4 but never got into the race and, at the finish, was found to be lame. These things happen in racing, horses are not machines and that’s why you have to “build-in” an element of risk into your wagers.

There are a couple of jumps meetings today (I’m not bothering with the meeting at York on the “flat”). I am particularly drawn to the meeting at Carlisle for a couple of reasons. Firstly, I have been fairly successful at this meeting for the past couple of years, mainly by following the runners of Howard Johnson. However, as a result of his ban from racing, he has now “retired” from the sport and that has left a huge gap that needs filling on the Northern jumps circuit. The obvious candidates to fill it are Don McCain, Nicky Richards and Sue Smith and all 3 are well represented at the races there today.

Nothing takes my eye at Newton Abbot.

I’m looking more at the meetings on Saturday at Chepstow and Hexham and there could be a decent wager to be had. I may also have a final wager on the flat racing at Newmarket for the season, but I doubt it will be on the Cesarewitch.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe 2011

The 345th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

This is a special edition of the blog for the race that brings down the curtain on the European “Flat” racing season – the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe.

I am going to start with last year’s winner, WORKFORCE. Much was made of the trouble in-running suffered by several horses in this race last year, but Workforce suffered as well and had to come from well off the pace with his finishing run. He has not looked so straightforward this season and - judging by his run in the King George –his eyeballing defeat to SO YOU THINK in the Eclipse at Sandown in July has knocked the stuffing from him. His defeat in the King George was blamed on being struck-in-to. Whatever, he won’t relish another eyeballing with SO YOU THINK.

As such, SO YOU THINK has his measure. How good is he? I reckon he’s better than his official rating of OR127, by possibly another 3lb. He should relish this trip as he showed no signs of lacking stamina over 10-furlongs in the Eclipse and he was good enough to run 3rd in the Melbourne Cup over 2-miles (admittedly, off a lenient handicap mark, about 10lbs below what he should have been on). What’s more is he likes to be up with the leader, so he could take a deal of catching in the straight.

SARAFINA was 3rd in the race last year and many thought she could have won but for being badly impeded 3f-out. I must admit, I was not of the same opinion and I watched the race many times. Yes, she lost ground, but so did a host of other horses as the early leader weakened quickly. Personally, I thought her jockey left her run too late and I think connections may have thought that too, as Gerard Mosse has been replaced since. Without a doubt, the horse possesses a devastating turn-of-foot and while that will hold her in good stead in this smaller field (19 ran last year, this year it’s likely to be 14 going to post), I reckon this year’s opponents are better horses.

Of the others, GALIKOVA won a weak looking Group 1 (Prix Vermeille) LTO, and it was a slow time too (2.10 secs slower than SARAFINA on the same card) and you have to wonder if this half-sister to brilliant miler Goldikova will have the stamina to stay this 12-furlong trip which will probably be run at a searching pace. She’s not one for me.

NAKAYAMA FESTA ran a cracker last year to be 2nd, only losing to Workforce by a head. The horse did nothing wrong last year and was beaten on the day only by a better one, there were no excuses. However, that was a helluva final furlong tussle last year and he’s not looked the same horse since. He was easily swept aside by Sarafina in the Prix Foy and needs to find possibly 10lb+ to be in contention.

A more interesting run in that race came from HIRUNO D’AMOUR, another Japanese challenger. Do not under-estimate this one just because he hails from Japan. Remember, he beat good yard-stick St Nicholas Abbey in the Prix Foy at level weights and by 2½ lengths – and that was his first run in over 4 months so he no-doubt needed it. He was not pushed hard that day, and I liked the way he quickened-up 2f-out to pass St Nicholas Abbey inside the final furlong only to be caught by Sarafina in the final 50 yards. As such, I cannot see ST NICHOLAS ABBEY being involved in the finish.

RELIABLE MAN who Seville beat at Longchamps in July may well still be improving (he won the influential “Arc” trial, the Prix Niel, LTO, easily) and some good judges reckon he’s top-notch. He also has the huge advantage of the 3yo weight-for-age allowance.

SNOW FAIRY won both the English and Irish Oaks Group 1 classics last season. However, I reckon she’s best at 10-furlongs and, depending on how this race is run; she may not be far away from SO YOU THINK at the post. If it’s a slow-run race early-on and develops into a 5-furlong dash she has a turn-of-foot as good as any in this field and better than most.

The last of the realistic contenders is Irish Derby winner TREASURE BEACH. Remember, this horse beat Nathaniel at Chester in May and since then they have both gone on to win Group 1 races over 12-furlongs. He’s a prominent galloper though, and that’s not the best thing to be in the “Arc”. In his favour, he has always been held in highest regard by his trainer Aidan O’Brien, hence his entry at Chester in May (where he sends all his best 3yo’s). Although almost certainly over-the-top when beaten in the Grand Prix de Paris in July, he has since won over 10f in August (another Group 1) and has been rested since - so comes into this race fresh.

Of those with supplementary entries, MEANDRE is held by RELIABLE MAN and would need to make significant improvement to reverse placings with him. As for MASKED MARVEL, connections are surely looking to try and snatch one of the places (5th pays £100k, 4th £200k, 3rd £400k) and make a financial killing on the 100,000 Euro entry fee.

How do I rate the race, and my odds-line:
RELIABLE MAN – 122 + 8lb = 130(P)..........9/2 chance
SO YOU THINK – 130...................4/1
SARAFINA – 126 + 3lb = 129.................9/2
GALIKOVA – 118 + 11lb = 129...............12/1 (won’t stay trip)
SNOW FAIRY – 125 + 3lb = 128...............10/1
TREASURE BEACH – 120 + 8lb = 128(P)......8/1
MASKED MARVEL – 120 + 8lb = 128...........14/1
MEANDRE – 119 + 8lb = 127..................14/1
HIRUNO D’AMOUR – 124(P+).....12/1 (could improve 3lb+)
WORKFORCE – 123.................12/1 (spent force)
NAKAMAYA FESTA – 120(P)................16/1
St NICHOLAS ABBEY – 120............20/1
Any others @ 25/1 or longer

From the above, RELIABLE MAN at 16/1 looks tremendous value, as does the other 3yo Derby winning colt TREASURE BEACH at 40/1. They may not win what looks like a very competitive race, but one (or both) should be in the 1st-3 and you never know! Definitely worth an eachway wager.
Don't get me wrong, I reckon SO YOU THINK is the most likely winner - but the best horse doesn't always win the race (racing would be easy otherwise).

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

We may have a lovely time today at Bangor

The 344th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

There is an interesting meeting at Bangor this afternoon and my attention has been captured by the 3:50; a 2m1f h’cap chase.

There has been a significant move in the betting market for the Jonjo O’Neill trained Adajal, ridden by AP McCoy. This horse will be fit from hurdling but, on what we’ve seen of him over fences in the UK, he’s plain slow. Unless the horse has undergone a complete “reboot”, I think he can be opposed. Adajal is the 5/1 joint-fav with Tilly Ann, however I reckon the latter would prefer another couple of furlongs as she is also on the slow side. Next in the market is Restezen D’Amour who comes into the race fresh from a 182-day break. He’s run well fresh before and today’s trip will suit him (doesn’t stay much further). However, unless his in-form trainer Charlie Longsdon has worked the oracle with him it’s unlikely this horse will have the resolve to win the race at the business end if he’s challenged. Macauley was the RP BF fav, but he’s only just moved to Phil Hobbs stable and is unlikely to have benefitted from the move just yet. Up To The Mark is another slow horse, too measured with his jumping. I’m not sure what to make of Saddlers Deal; he’s looked capable at times, but his jumping can let him down. Jim Tango is also fit from hurdling, and he’s also well handicapped on his chase form. However, he is very one-paced at the business end and he’d be one I’d be laying at under 2.50 after the 2nd-last if he’s being challenged. Midnight Opera has only had one chase, and that was fair. As such, I expect him to improve on that display especially as he has some decent form (good speed figures) at hurdling. He’s one that’s likely to ensure a good pace (along with Jim Tango).

That leaves just Michigan Assassin and Pin D’Estruval.
Another who likes to run prominently, Michigan Assassin drops from 2m4f for this, in fact it’s the first time he’s run in a chase under 2m4f. As he usually fades and makes mistakes in the final half-mile of his races, this drop in trip could be what he needs. When he last finished a class 4 chase, he was btn just 2½ lengths off OR112 (he’s on OR107 today) and that was after recovering from a momentous blunder at the 2nd-last fence. He should not be 20/1 (Corals & Boylesports), especially as in his last race he met some decent types who were clearly better than him.
As for Pin D’Estruval, he won well LTO and has been raised just 6lb. He may need the going to be a bit quicker, but it is good-to-firm in places and that may be enough. Again, he should not be 15/2 (Vic Chandler & Sportingbet).

From Monday 3rd October, I will no longer be restricting my selections to subscribers to Betting League. You will be able to find my selections, as well as read what I hope is an informative and entertaining blog, right here on the Wayward Lad blogspot. And what’s more, I’ll be posting my selections on here until Grand National day 2012.

So, add the link to the blog onto your “favourites” bar and log-on to find my independent thoughts on horseracing.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.