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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Thursday, 21 April 2011
Jumps action, & 2 for today
The blog had its 1st selection of the Flat season yesterday in HARLESTONE TIMES. He was the morning fav but, partly due to the gamble on eventual winner Sunny Game and partly due to opinion that John Dunlop’s horses weren’t quite up-to-speed yet, he drifted thru’ the day from 4/1 in the morning to an SP of 8/1. As I wrote yesterday, “he gets the trip, will handle the going and improved immensely at the back-end of last season”; and he showed that when he came from the rear 3-furlongs out to be 2nd over the line (subsequently demoted to 3rd). To be fair to jockey Ted Durcan, he did follow Dunlop’s instructions but, when he went to make his move, he couldn’t get past the struggling Dahaam who was hanging-in due to the camber on the track. As such, both those at the rear of the field HARLESTONE TIMES and Rock A Doodle Doo had their progress impeded. Would they have won with a clearer passage? I doubt it, as the winner Sunny Game looked in command and with plenty in hand and he looks capable of being rated OR100+ and goes onto my personal Horses To Follow list along with HARLESTONE TIMES and ROCK A DOODLE DOO. John Dunlop went into yesterday not having had a winner in over 5 years at Epsom from 32 runners, and after going close with Harlestone Times he rectified the situation with SPANISH DUKE in the 3:45 who won with any amount in hand. He must’ve been over the top at the back-end of last season with poor runs at Ascot and Newbury, but his mid-season form was solid especially his win at Newmarket in July when he beat Psychic Ability (now rated OR106) easily when in receipt of 3lb. He handles going from GS to GF, and could be up to Listed or even Group 3 class on this performance yesterday. He’s going on the HTF List too. Ingleby Spirit led for a long way in this, but didn’t get home and looks out of his depth at this rating. In the opening 5f sprint, FRATELLINO was well fancied and subject to a market move from 16’s to an SP of 10/1, but the support was not justified as he was outpaced from the off. He does have a lot of speed tho’, so he’ll be given another chance NTO. The winner Falasteen was a previous winner at Epsom over 6f, so when he grabbed the rail and went on 2f-out he wasn’t going to be caught. One that caught the eye was the runner-up Beat The Bell who had the worst draw (1) and had to do a lot early-on to get into a racing position. With a better draw he may have been closer. It’s worth noting that both these horses were beaten by Breathless Kiss on 6th April, and she finished 8th here despite being shortest of the 3 in the market at 15/2 – in these sprints there is not much separating them in the handicap and it all comes down to draw, and luck.
Today, there are 3 meetings of which 2 are over the jumps at Wincanton and Ludlow, and there is a solitary Flat meeting at Folkestone. Nothing exciting at Folkestone, but the meeting has attracted top jockeys Kieren Fallon and Ryan Moore so it may be worth giving their mounts closer inspection.
At Ludlow, the only race that takes my eye is the 2m4f chase at 3:50 where the market is made by Tyup Pompey. If he’s in the form of his win LTO (11-days ago) then he’ll more than likely win but, given he’s gone from good to bad before, I’d not want to take the 2/1 on offer today. He does hold his form at this time of year, but I’d want to take him on in this – but with what? For me it’s PRINCE DES MARAIS who has run well off OR123 this time last year. He loves the sun on his back and good going and quicker. He does not stay much beyond 2m5f, so his run LTO over 2m7f was not right for him. Even so, he ran well for a long way and as such comes into this race in good form and fit. At 6/1 he’s worth a wager and, with only 6 going to post, it’s a small 2in wager at that.
At Wincanton, there is nothing much to write home about. However, it would not surprise me to see DOUBLE DIZZY come home a long-odds winner in the 3:10. He slipped from OR131 at the start of the season to OR110 which he won off on 19th Feb at Wincanton. In his next run his saddle slipped, hence he was pulled-up; and LTO he was in a very competitive class 2 chase in which he was outclassed. He always runs well at Wincanton and he’s won his only race on good-to-firm going. He stays well (close 3rd at Cheltenham over 3m2½f on soft) and trainer Bob Buckler has had 3 winners from just 7 runners in the past fortnight. At 11/1, this is worth a wager in this 6 runner race.
Ludlow 3:50, PRINCE DES MARAIS, ½pt win @ 6/1 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)
Wincanton 3:10, DOUBLE DIZZY, ½pt win @ 11/1 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1pt staked
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