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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87
from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)
Total Staked = £609.00
Friday, 30 November 2012
Newbury Hennessey meeting - Day 2
What I didn't know about Sizing Santiago yesterday was that he's a half-brother to Take The Stand who ran 2nd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2005. As Peter Bowen (trainer of Sizing Santiago and Take The Stand) say's in today's Racing Post; being just a 6yo there is likely to be a lot of improvement to come from Sizing Santiago and he will be best at trips between 3m - 3m3f. He's going straight on my alert list.
Another busy day at the races today, with the 2nd-day of the Hennessey meeting at Newbury, plus meetings at Doncaster and Musselburgh.
I have just 2 horses from my alert list running, they both run at Newbury, and they both won LTO - Le Beau Bai and Bless The Wings. Whether Le Beau Bai can repeat his hurdles win of 11th November is debatable, as he's being aimed at the Welsh National. However, BLESS THE WINGS does look to have a good chance in the 3:15 at Newbury, especially as he's won before at this sort of trip of 2m4f and the ground is not as bad as expected being soft, good-to-soft in places. What I like about BLESS THE WINGS is he travels well and jumps well, and that can't be said about the fav The Knoxs who is apt to clout a fence now and then. Current odds of 5/1 (Blue Square and others) is more than fair as I thought he'd be about 7/2 for this. The Knoxs has a lot of potential too being a lightly raced 9yo, but I've always thought he'd be best at 3-mile. One who could surprise is Pasco, but I'm hoping the ground is too soft for him.
I can't see anything worthy of a wager at Musselburgh, but we may have an interesting selection at Doncaster. The 12:50 is a novice chase over 2m3f and the odds-on favourite is Rick, who previously ran as a hurdler in Ireland for Dessie Hughes and was quite a decent one at that. He's been bought by trainer John Ferguson to go chasing here and was only just beaten in his chase debut by No Planning, who looks a useful novice chaser and has run well since. However, Rick is not the one I'm interested in - it's LETS GET SERIOUS. This horse was bought out of Nicky Henderson's stable for £8,000 and runs here for James Ewart, who has had 6 winners from just 10 runners in chases at Doncaster in the past 5 seasons! That sort of strike-rate cannot be ignored, so clearly Ewart thinks a lot of LETS GET SERIOUS. He looked to have some talent a hurdler, so it is hard to know why he sold for so little last May. When he was 2nd on 2nd March he beat his stablemate Seven Woods giving him 6lb, and that horse ran 2nd (btn a neck) to Goulanes (now on OR132) at level weights, and he then won his next hurdle race before going chasing. The ground being soft today will be in the favour of Rick but, purely on hurdle ratings, there is not much between these horses and so, LETS GET SERIOUS at odds of 5/1 available generally has to worth a wager.
Doncaster 12:50 LETS GET SERIOUS, 1pt win @ 5/1 (available generally) Newbury 3:15 - BLESS THE WINGS, 1pt eachway @ 5/1 (Blue Square, Sportingbet, 888Sport)
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