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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Friday, 22 February 2013
Festival Handicap entries published
I'll be sending out an appraisal with my thoughts on the handicaps to those readers of the blog who've made a donation of at least £8 and received a copy of my Cheltenham Festival Bulletin for 2013. If you want the handicap appraisals – and I won't be publishing them on the blog – then you'll have to make a donation. If you make a donation, then I will send out the bulletin – pdf version – to your email address in the evening following receipt and it should be in your in-box before 8pm. Remember, in addition to the handicap appraisals, those who receive the bulletin will also receive drafts of my daily blog pages on the evening before racing during the week of the Cheltenham Festival so that they can take advantage of any early value that I spot before anyone else, all for just a minimum donation of £8.00 If that's not value I don't know what is.
Onto today's horseracing, and we've two meetings at Sandown and Warwick over the jumps, although there is a 10:30 inspection at Sandown once the covers have been removed from the course. Let's hope racing goes ahead. My old-mate CIRCUS OF DREAMS runs again at Sandown, and readers of the blog will know I tipped him eachway when he ran 2nd @ 66/1 at Kempton 2-weeks ago. He's up 2lb for that run and that looks fair enough to me as I expect he's a lot better than OR117 when he's on tip-top form. What I liked about him LTO was when he made a near calamitous error 5-out, he picked himself up and flew the next fence by which time he'd made-up the ground he'd lost. His jumping is patchy, and this race (Sandown 4:30) looks tougher than that race to me so while he was worth an eachway wager at 40/1 (SP 66/1), today at 11/2 he's not – there's no value in him. There are a couple that do look value and they are RINGA BAY @ 6/1 and Imperial Circus @ 17/2. With Imperial Circus, today is his last chance for me as a chaser. He looked promising as a hurdler and I expected that promise to transfer to his chasing but, perhaps, the heavy ground he's been racing on has been his undoing. He ran his best race this season when 3rd at Sandown over an extended 3-mile on good-to-soft and a repeat of that on today's similar ground should see him in the mix. RINGA BAY is unexposed as he's done most of his running in hunter-chases, but he has been running well in regulation races this season with his 3rd LTO at Sandown (had no chance with the winner) looking his best yet. He meets Barlow (4th in that race) on 1lb worse terms but he stayed-on past him LTO and Barlow looks to lack the stamina for this trip. I think Sandown's "railway fences" will be the undoing of Circus Of Dreams, so I'm having a small eachway wager on RINGA BAY @ 6/1.
The handicap hurdle at Sandown at 4:00 over 2m4f looks another wagering opportunity. I've been waiting for SPANISH ARCH to find a race since he won at Warwick in early December and tho' he ran well at Ascot LTO, the heavy ground didn't suit him that day. He's up 12lb since that win at Warwick but I think he's up to that hike in the handicap, and he's Charlie Longsdon's only runner at Sandown today. At odds of 15/2 (Bet Victor, ¼ odds a place 1,2,3) he's worth an eachway wager. One who may do well at long odds in this is Caroline Keevil's Moorland Sunset @ 18/1 (Bet Victor). He was only a length behind Spanish Arch LTO (made a mistake at the final flight) and is a 1lb better-off today. He was raced over 3-mile the time before that (didn't stay), and highly tried before that in a Class 2 h'cap hurdle. He doesn't seem to have any gears, so I can't see him winning this, but he could stay-on into 3rd.
At Warwick, I was going to advise a wager on GORGEHOUS LLIEGE in the 3:15 but he's at best "evens" in the market, so the betting forecast of 5/2 in the Racing Post was way off the mark. Regulars will know that I don't advise wagers at odds less than 9/4. Instead, I think I've found a decent wager in the 3:50 in CHARINGWORTH @ 12/1 (Bet Victor, ⅕ odds a place 1,2,3). Current 3/1 race-fav is David Pipe's French import Ballynagour, but this is his UK debut and he'll find this a challenge. Pipe also has Problematic Tic, but this horse wants ground much better than today's soft (heavy in places). Frisco Depot @ 6/1 looks fair if he lives up to his reputation, but he's yet to show his best in the UK. Niceonefrankie is improving with every run this season without getting his head in front. I can see him running well for Venetia Williams but the ground will be a bit too soft for him too. Golden Chieftain and Dashing George will both need to be at their best to be involved in this, and so we come to CHARINGWORTH. He goes well on soft, but also ran a cracker LTO on heavy at Ayr just last week. The 10yo has been lightly raced this season, and that run could have him super-fit for this. A repeat of that run will see him in the frame at least, and if he improves a few pounds then he's going to be hard to beat. There is potential for a front runner like Dashing George, or Little Josh, to break-away early and try to make all, but Warwick when it is soft/heavy is unforgiving ground and jockeys will need to measure the pace well.
Sandown 4:00, SPANISH ARCH, ½pt eachway @ 15/2 (Bet Victor, ¼ odds a place 1,2,3)
Sandown 4:30, RINGA BAY, ½pt eachway @ 6/1 (Bet365, ⅕ odds a place 1,2,3).
Warwick 3:50, CHARINGWORTH, ½pt eachway @ 12/1 (Bet Victor, ⅕ odds a place 1,2,3).
Total = 3pts staked
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