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Record of the blog selections

Profit for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £84.38

from wagers on 26 individual selections (4 winners, 6 placed)

Total Staked = £280.00


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Friday, 8 February 2013

Trainers getting their final Festival prep runs in

We have another 3 jump race meetings today at Kempton, Bangor and Newcastle and trainers around the country are using these mid-week meetings to get a final prep run into their horses which they believe have a decent chance at the Cheltenham Festival. The typical winner of a race at the Festival comes into it off a break of 35 days from its previous run and, as of today, there are just 32 days to go till the Festival's opening day.

Unlike yesterday, there are a few running from my personal alert list and one or two look interesting. At Bangor, I'll be very surprised if MIDNIGHT APPEAL does not win the 3-mile hurdle at 2:35. Alan King has entered this for several races over the weekend and it looks like he's found an easy opportunity for this horse. There is support for the Rebecca Curtis horse Ofaolains Boy but she's had to put a 7lb claimer on as AP McCoy (who seems to ride just about all her winners) is at Kempton. Donald McCain has Dungeel entered and this horse is on a hat-trick, and he's tempting as Jason Maguire is in the saddle. As such, odds of 5/2 about MIDNIGHT APPEAL look fair, but not overly generous.

At Kempton, there are 2 from my personal alert list; ADIYNARA in the 1:10 and CHAMPION COURT in the 3:25. There is little chance of CHAMPION COURT being beaten as he has only 2 rivals in his race and he outclasses both, so that is a race for watching only as he is at long odds-on. ADIYNARA is more intesting, as he comes here fit from a win on the all-weather, which followed a couple of spins on the "sand" as he's not a heavy ground horse. Currently 4/1, there seems to be a lot of interest in Professeur Emery (4/1) and Thundering Home (6/1), together with Alan King's Franklino (5/1) and Evan Williams Islandmagee (5/1). As such, I'd hope for a bit more value in ADIYNARA before having a wager, and 11/2 would be the shortest odds I'll be taking.. If I can obtain 11/2, then I'll have a ½pt eachway.

Lastly, OVERYOU in the 3:00 at Newcastle is my final alert list runner today. He's cost me a few pennies this horse, having run 2nd on his last 2 runs.. Maybe those races were over trips too far for him and today's drop to 3-mile may well suit him as he last won over 2m7f at Kelso. Unfortunately, this looks tough race with a couple of LTO winners in it and it's heavy ground at Newcastle which will mean this is a right slog. Odds of just 6/1 are not good enough as I could only have an eachway wager in these conditions and 6/1 is not enough as he doesn't look a potential winner.

It looks like it's another "no bet" day for me unless I take a look at some other races, and there are several that catch my eye. At Kempton, COMEONGINGER - a half brother to Brindisi Breeze - in the 1:40 could upset the favorite. The dynamic duo Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh have only 2 horses running for them at Kempton and the other one, Domtaline, faces Champion Court in the 3:25. Walsh isn't at Kempton for a night out in London tonight and at 6/1 this horse is worth a speculative ½pt win wager (generally available).

Later at Kempton, the handicap chase at 4:00 looks interesting, especially as Pete The Feat dominates the betting. Remarkable as it may seem, but the last time Pete The Feat met CIRCUS OF DREAMS he was receiving 16lb (actually, it was 21lb as Pete The Feat was ridden by 5lb claimer), today he's giving CIRCUS OF DREAMS 22lb; that's 38lb turnaround. Now, I'm not stupid, Pete The Feat is a totally different horse to the one beaten at Lingfield some 14 months ago, but CIRCUS OF DREAMS isn't. In his next race he ran a cracker, virtually making all at Towcester in December 2011, after which he was off the track for 12 months before running well on his re-appearance at Leicester in December 2012. I reckon that run will have brought him on a lot and he'll enjoy the strong pace of today's race as he runs prominently. He's available at 40/1 and I honestly reckon that he's worth £5 eachway at those odds. This is purely speculative, as he may be outclassed, but I think you'll get a run for your money, as there seems to be very little depth to this race.

Selections:
Kempton 1:40, COMEONGINGER, ½pt win @ 6/1 (generally available)
Kempton 4:00, CIRCUS OF DREAMS, ¼pt eachway @ 40/1 (Boylesports, Sportingodds, 5th odds a place 1,2,3)
Total = 1pt staked

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Thanks from Wayward Lad



3 comments:

  1. Nice one Ian! Had a couple of quid ew double.. pity Comeonginger just couldnt make it! Makes up for last week where I missed out on On Trend.. backed the others you mentioned but had no time to place the bet. Keep up the good work.. look forward to your Festival report. Donation sent.

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  2. Thanks Peter, it's always great to get feedback from the readers (as well as donations!).
    I did the same as you, placing a small (unsuccessful) EW double. Worse, I had £10 on CIRCUS OF DREAMS at an ave of 165 on Betfair - odds which I thought an insult to the horse. Unfortunately, I didn't trade out (should have as went <4.00 in-running) but also had the same on the place-only market at 18.0.
    Roll on the Festival!

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  3. I've just looked at the Tote dividends for this race.
    This morning I did my usual of marking-up the trainers who had the best record at the tracks and at Kempton it was Henderson (obviously) but also - in chases - McCain who had had 2 wins from just 7 runners in chases compared with 2 wins from 17 in hurdles.
    Had I put that lost together with my liking for Circus Of Dreams then I could have put together a tricast combo. Henderson trained the winner, McCain the 3rd.
    The Tricast paid £14,767.45 to a £1 stake.

    ReplyDelete